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The COVID-19 crisis isn’t over for workers in Nigeria

The labor market is the main vehicle through which the proceeds of growth are shared among households and individuals. Therefore, understanding the labor market is essential for poverty reduction. This topic is crucial in Nigeria, where the government…

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By Jonathan Lain, Tara Vishwanath

The labor market is the main vehicle through which the proceeds of growth are shared among households and individuals. Therefore, understanding the labor market is essential for poverty reduction. This topic is crucial in Nigeria, where the government aspires to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty by 2030—an ambitious objective since, even before the pandemic, around 4 in 10 Nigerians lived below the national poverty line.

COVID-19’s “double shock”—health and economic—has intensified the need for new evidence to understand jobs and livelihoods in Nigeria. With social protection limited, households resorted to negative coping strategies—including reducing food consumption—that hurt their current and future welfare.

A new report, COVID-19 in Nigeria: Frontline Data and Pathways for Policy, uses high-frequency data to examine effects on human capital, livelihoods, and welfare. The report draws on the Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (NLPS), a distinctive, nationally-representative survey that captured key socioeconomic information from households for 12 consecutive rounds between April 2020 and April 2021.

Employment during COVID-19: Quick drop, quick recovery

The NLPS data show that employment in Nigeria plummeted at the start of the COVID-19 crisis. The share of main respondents in each household who were working fell by more than half between mid-March 2020 and April/May 2020, dropping from 86 percent to 42 percent (Figure 1). During this period, the most stringent lockdown measures were in place, and restrictions on mobility may have stopped people from getting to work. This also chimes strongly with global evidence from other labor markets.

Despite the initial drop, employment in Nigeria recovered quickly. By August 2020, the share of main respondents in each household who were working had returned to pre-pandemic levels. In this sense, Nigeria’s labor market echoed the V-shaped recovery observers hoped for in the global economy as a whole, following the COVID-19 crisis.

A closer look: Many people working, but not in good jobs

However, looking at the types of jobs Nigerians turned to paints a less positive picture. Later rounds of the NLPS—those implemented in September 2020 and February 2021—expanded interviews to all working-age household members, capturing more detailed and inclusive information on Nigeria’s labor market. The share of working-age Nigerians who were working actually increased between January-February 2019 and February 2021, but this was mainly concentrated in retail and trade (or commerce) activities in non-farm household enterprises. Such activities are typically small-scale—with only around 1 in 10 non-farm household enterprises employing anyone outside the household—so would be unlikely to help households ward off or escape poverty. Indeed, NLPS data directly demonstrate that non-farm enterprise income remained the most precarious—more so than wage work or agriculture—as  COVID-19 continued.

Moreover, COVID-19 heralded significant churn in Nigerians’ labor market activities. Workers lacked stability and security in their employment: Instead, they took on whatever activities could help them cope with the effects of the COVID-19.

Learning losses place future growth at risk

Given its impacts on human capital development, and especially education, the crisis also threatens future generations. School closures during 2020 reduced children’s attendance rates even after reopening, especially among older children. Dropout was also higher in the households most affected by income shocks, suggesting that households removed children from school in order to support income-generating activities. Since Nigeria’s human capital outcomes were well below the average for sub-Saharan Africa even before the pandemic, the country can ill afford these setbacks to learning.

COVID-19 also threatens to widen inequality in learning, as access to remote learning was uneven across households. Young children from non-poor households had better access to remote learning options—through television, computers, and smartphones or tablets—than those from poor households (Figure 2).

Access to remote learning options: Worse among children from poor households

A window for policy action

Recouping the learning lost during the COVID-19 crisis, therefore, presents a key policy priority for Nigeria. While encouraging children back to school—the preferred policy among Nigerians themselves—will be vital, resuming in-person learning requires that preventative measures be in place to prevent the virus’ spread. With ongoing uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, remote options that actually work for the poor are needed. High-tech options cannot reach the poor, so low-tech solutions may be more appropriate. Examples include engaging pupils, parents, and teachers through mobile phones or broadcasting lessons via radio. Further initiatives could support the recovery in learning, be it in person or remote: For example, there is growing evidence that Teaching at the Right Level (TaRL) can support foundational learning by carefully assessing children’s needs and then tailoring teaching accordingly.

The crisis also provides renewed impetus to implement the policies needed for good job creation in Nigeria. As well as investing in human capital, this partly hinges on effecting macroeconomic reforms to energize structural transformation and generate productive wage jobs. Yet, since farm and non-farm household enterprises will dominate employment in Nigeria for many years to come, policies to boost their productivity—through developing crop varieties, investing in infrastructure, improving market access, and easing credit constraints—should also be carefully considered.

The country’s large youth population makes it even more vital that Nigeria’s leaders apply evidence-based policies to exit the crisis and support the country’s workers, today and tomorrow.

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Israel Moves To Ban All Foreigners From Entry Amid Omicron Variant Fears

Israel Moves To Ban All Foreigners From Entry Amid Omicron Variant Fears

Israel’s Knesset is set to hold a special emergency "coronavirus cabinet" late Saturday night where government officials will vote on enacting a complete closure of…

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Israel Moves To Ban All Foreigners From Entry Amid Omicron Variant Fears

Israel's Knesset is set to hold a special emergency "coronavirus cabinet" late Saturday night where government officials will vote on enacting a complete closure of the country to foreign travel. The ban will tentatively be in effect for the next two weeks.

Already Israel has banned all foreigners arriving from the majority of African countries in recent days on fears that the highly-mutated Omicron coronavirus variant, which first emerged in South Africa, could be the next deadly wave - and with the vaccine possibly doing little to stop it.

AFP/Getty Images

The greatly tightened travel and tourist restrictions are expected to be announced late Saturday night or early Sunday. It's expected to also include a new mandatory quarantine of three days or more for vaccinated Israeli citizens who've returned from traveling abroad. For unvaccinated inbound Israeli citizens the quarantine will be a week.

The fresh travel rules come as authorities scramble to do contact tracing on exposures related to at least one confirmed Omicron case:

Authorities are scrambling to locate 800 Israelis who may have been exposed to the new Omicron variant of COVID-19, a defense official said Saturday.

The Health Ministry confirmed one case of the new variant in Israel, and said there were seven other suspected cases who were awaiting test results.

Four of the suspected cases returned to Israel recently from international travel, and three had not traveled, raising fears of community transmission in Israel.

Prime Minister Bennett ahead of the vote said the government is "preparing for any scenario." And concerning the new still somewhat mysterious variant, the country's interior minister said, "It looks like it might be more infectious, so we’re taking action as fast as possible."

Just days ago the health minister Nitzan Horowitz announced that Israelis will likely have to get a fourth shot, also as children between the ages of 5 to 11 have begun receiving the jab. Ironically the foreign tourist ban is now being re-imposed for one of the most highly vaxxed nations on earth.

At least 80% of all Israelis 16 and older are now considered fully vaccinated.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/27/2021 - 23:15

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“The Omicron Variant” – Magic Pills, Or Solving The Africa Problem?

"The Omicron Variant" – Magic Pills, Or Solving The Africa Problem?

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

Yesterday the WHO labelled the sars-cov-2 variant B.1.1.529 as a “variant of concern” and officially named it “Omicron”.

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"The Omicron Variant" – Magic Pills, Or Solving The Africa Problem?

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

Yesterday the WHO labelled the sars-cov-2 variant B.1.1.529 as a “variant of concern” and officially named it “Omicron”.

This was as entirely predictable as it is completely meaningless. The “variants” are just tools to stretch the story out and keep people on their toes.

If you want to know exactly how the Omicron variant is going to affect the narrative, well The Guardian has done a handy “here’s all the bullshit we’re gonna sell you over the next couple of weeks” guide:

  • The Omicron variant is more transmissable, but they don’t know if it’s more dangerous yet (keeping their options open)

  • It originated in Africa, possible mutating in an “untreated AIDS patient” (sick people are breeding grounds for dangerous “mutations”)

  • “it has more than double the mutations of Delta…scientists anticipate that the virus will be more likely to infect – or reinfect – people who have immunity to earlier variants. (undermining natural immunity, selling more boosters, keeping the scarefest going)

  • “Scientists are concerned” that current vaccines may not be as effective against the new strain, they may need to be “tweaked” (get your boosters, and the new booster we haven’t invented yet)

  • “Scientists expect that recently approved antiviral drugs, such as Merck’s pill, will work as effectively against the new variant” (more on this later)

  • It’s already spreading around the world, and travel bans may be needed to prevent the need for another lockdown

We’re already seeing preparations for more “public health measures”, with the press breathlessly quoting “concerned” public health officials. We’re being told that a new lockdown won’t be necessary…as long as we remember to get boosted and wear masks and blah blah blah.

Generally speaking, it’s all fairly boilerplate scary nonsense. Although it is quite funny that the Biden administration has already put a bunch of African nations on a travel ban list, when Biden called Trump a racist for doing the same thing in 2020.

AFRICA

It’s interesting that the new variant has allegedly come from Africa, perhaps “mutating in the body of an AIDS patient”, since Africa has been the biggest hole in the Covid narrative for well over a year.

Africa is by far the poorest continent, it is densely populated, malnourishment and extreme poverty are endemic across many African nations, and it is home to more AIDS patients than the entire rest of the world combined. And yet, no Covid crisis.

This is a weak point in the story, and always has been.

Last Summer, the UK’s virus modeller-in-chief Neil Ferguson attempted to explain it by arguing that African nations have, on average, younger populations than the rest of the world, and Covid is only a threat to the elderly. But five minutes of common sense debunks that idea.

The reason Africa has a younger population, on average, is that – on average – they are much sicker.

There are diseases endemic to large parts of Africa that are all but wiped out in most of the Western world. Cholera, typhus, yellow fever, tuberculosis, malaria. Access to clean water, and healthcare are also much more limited.

And while it has been nailed into the public mind that being elderly is the biggest risk factor for Covid, that is inaccurate. In fact, the biggest risk factor for dying “of Covid” is, and always has been, already dying of something else.

The truth is that any REAL dangerous respiratory virus would have cut a bloody swath across the entire continent.

Instead, as recently as last week, we were getting articles about how Africa “escaped Covid”, and the continent’s low covid deaths with only 6% of people vaccinated is “mystifying” and “baffling” scientists.

Politically, African nations have shown themselves far less likely to buy into the “pandemic” narrative than their European, Asian or American counterparts. At least two “Covid denying” African presidents – Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi and John Magufuli of Tanzania – have died suddenly in the last year, and seen their successors immediately reverse their covid policies.

So maybe the Omicron Variant is a way of trying to fold Africa into the covid narrative that the other continents have already fully embraced. That will become clear as the story develops.

Of course, it’s also true that being “African” is media shorthand for being scary, relying on the deeply-seated xenophobia of Western audiences. See: “Africanized killer bees”.

But, either way, Africa is the long game. There’s a more obvious, and more cynical, short term agenda here.

THE MAGIC PILLS

Let’s go back to the Guardian’s “Omicron” bullet points, above:

  • Scientists are concerned by the number of mutations and the fact some of them have already been linked to an ability to evade existing [vaccine-created] immune protection.

  • Scientists expect that recently approved antiviral drugs, such as Merck’s pill, [will work effectively] against the new variant

The “new variant” is already being described as potentially resistant to the vaccines, but NOT the new anti-viral medications.

Pharmaceutical giants Merck and Pfizer are both working on “Covid pills”, which as recently as three days ago, were being hyped up in the press:

US may have a ‘game changer’ new Covid pill soon, but its success will hinge on rapid testing

In the US, an emergency use authorisation can only be issued if there is no effective medication or treatment already available, so the vaccines not being proof against Omicron would be vital to rushing the pills onto the US market, at least.

If Omicron is found to be “resistant to the vaccines”, but NOT the pills, that will give governments an excuse to rush through approving the pills on an EUA, just as they did with the vaccines.

So, you bet your ass that testing is gonna be “rapid”. Super rapid. Blink-and-you’ll-miss-it rapid. Rapid to the point you’re not even sure it definitely happened. And now they have an excuse.

Really, it’s all just more of the same.

A scare before the new year. An excuse to make people believe their Christmas could be in peril. An exercise in flexing their control muscles a bit, milking even more money out of the double-jabbed and boosted crowd, now newly terrified of the Omicron variant, and a nice holiday bump to Pfizer’s ever-inflating stock price.

At this point either you can see the pattern, or you can’t. You’re free of the fear machinery, or you’re not.

There is one potential silver lining here: It feels rushed and frantic. Discovered on Tuesday, named on Friday, travel bans on Saturday. It is hurried, and maybe that’s a reaction to feeling like the “pandemic” is losing its grip on the public mind.

Hopefully, as the narrative becomes more and more absurd, more and more people will wake up to reality.

It has been pointed out that “Omicron” is an anagram of “moronic”.

One wonders if that’s deliberate and they’re making fun of us.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/27/2021 - 23:45

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Mexican Authorities List Conditions To Reboot “Remain In Mexico” Program

Mexican Authorities List Conditions To Reboot "Remain In Mexico" Program

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Mexican authorities have laid out a series of conditions for reviving the “Remain in Mexico” program, the Trump-era…

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Mexican Authorities List Conditions To Reboot "Remain In Mexico" Program

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Mexican authorities have laid out a series of conditions for reviving the “Remain in Mexico” program, the Trump-era framework under which asylum-seekers were returned to Mexico to await the processing of their claims, with the development coming in context of the Biden administration’s plans to reinstate the policy following a court order.

Mexico’s Foreign Ministry said in a Nov. 26 announcement that talks have “intensified” with the United States on rebooting the program, known as the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), but that Mexican authorities are waiting for a formal response from the Biden administration on a number of concerns.

“The government of Mexico … has raised various concerns of a humanitarian nature regarding the asylum procedure in the United States,” the ministry said, adding that it has “highlighted the need to improve conditions for migrants and asylum seekers, so that they have better legal advice” regarding the processing of their clams, which Mexico said, “must be carried out as expeditiously as possible.”

One of the conditions is for the United States to accelerate development programs for southern Mexico and Central America in order to address the root causes of migration.

Another is for Washington to offer individuals deported under the MPP program medical care and vaccination against COVID-19 “to protect their right to health and prevent the spread of COVID-19 in communities on both sides of the border.”

Mexico has also requested that the United States respect designated return points, taking into account local security conditions and the capacity of Mexican authorities “to provide adequate care to migrants.”

Another “essential” request is for Washington to provide funding for shelters and non-government organizations “in order to improve conditions for migrants and asylum seekers in a substantive way.”

The demands come as talks between the two countries continue on reimplementing the MPP program after a court in August ordered that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) reverse its June decision to halt the policy.

“In compliance with the court order, we are working to reimplement MPP as promptly as possible,” DHS spokesperson Marsha Espinosa told Axios.

”We cannot do so until we have the independent agreement from the Government of Mexico to accept those we seek to enroll in MPP,” Espinosa added.

“We will communicate to the court, and to the public, the timing of reimplementation when we are prepared to do so.”

The Biden administration is facing an unprecedented surge in illegal immigration that critics say is fostered by its lax enforcement policies, including halting MPP and curtailing the use of Title 42, which is used to expel illegal immigrants during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/27/2021 - 16:45

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