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The 6 Best Canadian Bank Stocks to Buy in October 2021

Whether you’re a seasoned investor or someone who is just learning how to buy stocks in Canada, most Canadian retail investors will have one thing in common when it comes to their portfolios; they include Canadian bank stocks. Why? Well, for starters,…

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Whether you're a seasoned investor or someone who is just learning how to buy stocks in Canada, most Canadian retail investors will have one thing in common when it comes to their portfolios; they include Canadian bank stocks.

Why?

Well, for starters, every one of these banks on this list is a Canadian Dividend Aristocrat, and is also included in the large majority of Canadian index etfs. Newcomers looking to learn how to buy stocks are often drawn to bank stocks, primarily because of their consistent, high-paying dividends.

Are Canadian banks a good buy now?

Now that the rollout of vaccines are in full swing and the economy is slowly starting to re-open, Canada’s banks are seeing strong positive momentum.

They are also riding the tailwinds of the threat of rising rates as the risk of hyper inflation increases by the day.

It is therefore not surprising that Canada’s banks have largely recovered from the pre-pandemic lows. It is also worth noting that as a group they underperformed the TSX Index in 2020.

It marked the first time in several years that every single bank underperformed the broader Index. Many spoke about mortgage and other loan delinquencies, and the fear was of general "doom" for the banks. However, this just wasn't the case. The good news is that in 2021 they have once again started to outperform.

Despite the runup in price, the potential for rising rates and a strong economic rebound are reasons enough to start or add to your positions today. Even without those tailwinds, Canada’s Banks are among the strongest investments in the country.

Will dividend growth return for Canada's top bank stocks?

One of the current drawbacks to these Canadian stocks, is their inability to raise dividends.

At the onset of the pandemic, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OFSI) put a cap on dividend raises.

Among other temporary initiatives, these measures were put in place due to the considerable uncertainty that clouded the industry. The good news is that banks have proven capable and the impacts haven’t been as bad as feared.

Furthermore, these measures were not a reflection of their financial positions. The banks are excellent stocks, and the measures were implemented out of an abundance of caution.

The good news is that the OFSI has started to rollback these temporary measures.

While dividend raises have not been given the green light, it is only a matter of time.

Once the go-ahead is given, expect all of Canada’s banks to resume their strong history of dividend growth. Keep in mind as well, that the banks can still issue special dividends.

How safe are Canadian bank stocks?

The highly regulated Canadian banking market creates massive barriers to entry. This is very similar to the Canadian telecom sector.

The Big 5 are incredibly important to the economy in Canada, as are some of the smaller regional players such as National Bank of Canada and Canadian Western Bank.

A Canadian bank stock can serve as a cornerstone of one’s portfolio, is low-risk, provides growth, and a steady income.

After weathering the financial crisis better than most all world-banks, the banks in Canada were also among the first to re-instate a rising dividend. In fact, the Bank of Montreal has one of the longest consecutive dividend payment streaks in the country at 189 years.

One of the most reliable ways to value Canada’s banks is to compare their existing valuations against historical averages. Whether they traded at a discount or premium to historical and forward P/E averages, they always return to the mean.

So with that being said, let’s get to the best Canadian bank stocks to buy moving forward.

What are the best Canadian bank stocks to own today?

6. Goeasy Ltd (TSX:GSY)

For the most part, this list is constructed of major Canadian banks. They're simply the best bank stocks in the country.

However, as an added bonus we've put a very strong alternative lender here in Canada on the list in Goeasy Ltd (TSE:GSY).

Alternative lenders have exploded in popularity as of late, as many Canadians are rejected from major banks and need to head to smaller institutions to gain access to capital.

This does give the impression that Goeasy's customer base is extremely high risk, but this just simply isn't true.

In fact, the majority of Goeasy's customer base actually have lower debt loads than those of major banks. Why? Well, they don't have mortgages. Which in the vast majority of cases is going to be the number one priority in terms of payment for any Canadian.

So what exactly does Goeasy do? The company provides financing options to purchase furniture, electronics, appliances, and also provides unsecured loans to customers who just need cash. It has two primary segments, easyhome and easyfinancial, with easyfinancial making up the lion's share of revenue.

The company has underwent some significant growth over the last couple years, and was actually a Stocktrades Premium pick in 2019, gaining over 500% since. With interest rates remaining low, Canadians can borrow for extremely cheap, and this is causing some exceptional boosts to the company's top and bottom line.

In terms of dividend growth, the company is simply outstanding as well. Over the last 5 years the company has grown the dividend by more than 35%, and its most recent raise in the mid 40% range goes even further and tops this average.

The company is a Canadian Dividend Aristocrat, and with a payout ratio of only 13%, it has plenty of room to grow the dividend in the future and we would be very surprised if the company didn't continue its torrent pace of growth.

Of note, Goeasy Ltd is currently not restricted by the OSFI on raising dividends. So unlike the other top Canadian bank stocks on this list, it is able to increase dividend payments for shareholders whenever it pleases.

Goeasy Ltd 10 year performance vs the TSX

TSE:GSY vs TSX Index

5. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX:CM)

CIBC Investors Edge

CIBC (TSE:CM) has been a perennial under-performer, but makes the cut on this list update over the Bank of Nova Scotia.

Investors who have held CIBC over the past year may have been pleasantly surprised. For the first time in years, they started to perform inline with the peer average.

Is this but a blip on the radar or a sign that CIBC is finally on the verge of turning a corner?

The company is expected to post earnings growth in the mid-single digits, which is actually above the industry average. Normally, we’d reward the company with a higher ranking because of higher growth rates, but as mentioned CIBC hasn’t had the greatest track record.

That being said, if it does deliver then the company is well positioned to outperform for the balance of the year and maybe even into 2022. Through the first 9 months of 2021, it's actually been the best performing Canadian bank stock in terms of total return, with gains of just under 37% at the time of writing.

In terms of valuation, CIBC remains one of the cheaper banks but is trading well above historical averages. At 11.3 times earnings and 1.6 times book value, CIBC is trading at a double digit premium to historical averages.

Also worth noting, CIBC also boasts the largest dividend yield on this list, in the low 4% range. Typically, CIBC sports one of the highest yields among its peers and this time is no different.

Earlier in the year, CIBC had one of the higher payout ratios among its peers in the 60% range. However, this has come down considerably, and the company is now paying out only 43% of trailing twelve month earnings towards the dividend. This is still the second highest ratio among major Canadian banks, trailing only the Bank of Nova Scotia, but it is still a very comfortable payout ratio.

Keep in mind however, with a higher than expected EPS growth rate, that payout ratio is expected to drop even further next year.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce 10 year performance vs the TSX

TSE:CM Vs TSX Index

4. Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO)

Bank Of Montreal

During the pandemic, the Bank of Montreal (TSE:BMO) was the hardest hit bank. In fact, for most of 2020 the bank trailed its peers.

That is until the markets recognized it was significantly undervalued and it quickly became one of the best performing banks. This is exactly why we relayed the Bank of Montreal to Stocktrades Premium members.

As of writing, BMO leads all the Big Six banks with returns in excess of 60% over the past year.

The Bank of Montreal is the 8th largest bank in North America, and has paid uninterrupted dividends for more than 185 years, the longest streak in the country.

Just over 60% of its revenue comes from the Canadian economy, making it one of the more heavily dependent Canadian bank stocks when it comes to its home country.

One of the drawbacks against the company - High exposure to the oil and gas industry.

However, it is key to note that the company also has the lowest exposure to the Canadian housing market, a market which a lot of investors think is a bubble just waiting to burst.

Furthermore more, the Bank of Montreal has been one of the most consistent performers among all of Canada’s banks. Outside of this past year where previous underperformance has led to it leading its peers, BMO has consistently been middle of the pack in terms of performance.

Over the past 3, 5 and 10-year periods, BMO has closely trailed the top 3 on this list, but has far outperformed the laggards.

As mentioned in our prelude, when Canada’s banks start to dip below historical averages, it is time to back up the truck.

In the case of the Bank of Montreal, it has five-year median P/E and P/B ratios of 12.05 and 1.49 respectively.

Currently it is trading just below its historical P/E average. However, it is worth noting that BMO is one of only a few banks expected to grow revenue in excess of 4% this year.

Earnings are also expected to jump by 37% which is the highest among all the Big Six banks. Given his, valuations are actually not outrageous.

Bank of Montreal 10 year performance vs the TSX

TSE:BMO Vs TSX

3. Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX:TD)

TD stock dividend

Toronto Dominion (TSE:TD) slips to number 3 on our list. Not because it has been a poor performer, but because of outperformance by another (more on that later).

TD is a multinational banking and financial services firm which started operations in 1855. TD Bank is one of the largest banks in Canada by total assets and second largest by market capitalization.

The $150+ billion dollar company has the highest exposure south of the border as more than 40% of revenue comes from the U.S.

The financial giant was named one of the most convenient banks in the U.S. and is among the top brands in North America.

Over the past five years, TD Bank has averaged 6.83% and 8.79% annual earnings growth. This includes the pandemic which had severely impacted operations.

These are the highest growth rates among any of the Big Six banks. This is one of the primary reasons TD Bank has been able to grow its dividend at a rapid pace and owns the highest dividend growth rate of its peers. 

Surprisingly, it has trailed the top 2 stocks on this list in terms of stock performance. That is the only reason why TD is ranked 3rd on our list.

However, don’t sleep on TD Bank as its exposure to the U.S. can lead to outperformance as our neighbors have had a much more successful vaccine rollout and are opening much faster than we are here in Canada.

As of writing, TD Bank is trading below its historical five-year P/E & P/B averages of 12.34 and 1.72 respectively.

This makes it one of the more attractively bank options on the Index today. 

TD Bank 10 year performance vs the TSX

TSE:TD Vs TSX Index

2. National Bank (TSX:NA)

National Bank stock

National Bank (TSE:NA) jumps to number 2 on our list. 

Why? It simply continues to defy expectations and outperform. It is the second best performing bank over the past year, and has been the best bank to own over the past 3, 5 and 10-year periods.

National Bank is dominating in terms of market share in Quebec, with over 60% of its revenue coming from the Canadian province. The bank also depends heavily on personal and commercial banking, making up over 42% of its total revenue.

A lot of naysayers compare National Bank to a company like Laurentian Bank, who recently had to cut its dividend amidst the pandemic. However, it's important to note that National Bank does have a strong international presence as well.

Although it's smaller than that of Canada's major institutions, glass half full investors will realize this is a prime opportunity to grab a growth stock in the banking sector, which is an extremely rare occurrence.

Over the last 5 years, National Bank (dividends accounted for) has returned 150.2% to investors. The next closest bank? Royal Bank at 95%. In fact, National Bank more than doubled the performance of every one of Canada’s Big 5 except Royal Bank.

For the most part, studies around Big Bank valuations have not included National Bank. However, National Bank’s stock reacts in the same way as the big five.

When it trades below historical averages, it always returns to the mean. The opposite is also true, when it trades above historical averages it always drops to trade in line with historical averages.

Today, National bank is trading at a big premium to its five-year historical P/E, forward P/E and P/B ratios of 11.34, 10.28 and 1.84 respectively. In fact, it is the most expensive bank when compared to historical averages.

Next year, National Bank is expected to see revenue and earnings growth of 7.13% and 27.77% respectively.

While revenue growth is above average, earnings growth is average. Given this, we aren’t sure that National Bank deserves to be trading at such a high premium to historical averages.

However, as we’ve mentioned before the company has defied expectations and has led all of Canada’s banks despite having only average growth rates.

National Bank 10 year performance vs the TSX

TSE:NA Vs TSX Index

1. The Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY)

Royal Bank dividend

Our position on Royal Bank (TSE:RY) hasn’t changed – it remains the top bank in the country.

It continues to perform and was one of the few that managed to grow the top line (revenue) YoY despite the pandemic.

It is one of the most diversified banks in the world, and its global exposure will allow it to provide more stable revenue and earnings as multiple countries are in different phases of economic recovery due to COVID-19. This will remain true though to the end of 2021, and potentially even 2022.

Royal Bank has been the second best performing Big Bank over the past 3, 5 and 10 year periods.

If you were solely looking at the Big Five, then it would be the top ranked performer over those periods.

The same valuation principles apply to Royal Bank. The company is currently trading atslight discount to its five-year P/E average of 12.58 but at a very small premium to its P/B average of 2. On a forward P/E basis, it is trading right in line with historical averages.

All things considered, it looks to be fairly valued here. This means that it should simply perform in line with expectations. Revenue and earnings are expected grow by around 4% and 23% next year.

Given its size and status as the largest company in the country, Royal Bank provides unparalleled safety.

It is one of those rare stocks that you can buy at any point. While you don’t necessarily want to overpay, today the company is well priced and should continue to do well for years to come.

Royal Bank 10 year performance vs the TSX

TSE:RY Vs TSX Index

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Economics

DAX index forecast ahead of the ECB meeting

European stocks rose on Friday on a surge in technology stocks; still, rising inflation became a concern for investors. European inflation was confirmed at 3.4% YoY in September, and concerns grew that the European Central Bank could change its monetary..

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European stocks rose on Friday on a surge in technology stocks; still, rising inflation became a concern for investors. European inflation was confirmed at 3.4% YoY in September, and concerns grew that the European Central Bank could change its monetary policy.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that ECB would maintain its accommodative policy for as long as necessary, but this could change soon. Germany’s DAX index has advanced again above 15,500 points, but it is still trading below its recent highs.

Germany’s recovery from the pandemic has been strong so far, and the country will release the preliminary estimates of its October Inflation data and its Q3 GDP next week.

Results from many big companies provided a strong start to third-quarter earnings, and investors’ focus will remain on the third-quarter earnings season because many companies have yet to publish their reports.

Next week, Deutsche Bank, Volkswagen,  Linde, MTU Aero Engines, and Daimler are among the companies scheduled to report quarterly results.

According to the German Economic Ministry, the outlook for the industry remains positive, but the world’s supply chains crisis represents a serious problem for Germany because of its dependence on exports.

The German economy is particularly vulnerable to shortages of key parts and raw materials, and more than 40% of companies reported they had lost sales because of supply problems.

Many big companies scaled back production of some of their most profitable models, while Opel announced last month that it would shut down a factory in Eisenach until the beginning of 2022.

It is important to say that nearly half of Germany’s economic output depends on exports of cars, machine tools, and other goods, while the semiconductor shortage throttling global car production suggests more pain for the automotive industry.

Despite this, the German Economic Ministry reported that it expected this effect to be temporary while the German central bank expects that the German economy could grow 3.7% this year. The German Economic Ministry added:

Healthy order books give us reason to expect strong recovery impulses from industry, and thanks to that strong overall economic growth

The European Central Bank recently reported that exports from Eurozone would have been at least 7% higher in the first half of the year if not for supply bottlenecks. The European Central Bank will announce its decision on monetary policy next Thursday, which could significantly influence on DAX index in the near term.

15,000 points represent support

Data source: tradingview.com

DAX index has advanced again above 15,500 points, and if the price jumps above 15,800 points, the next target could be at 16,000 points.

On the other side, if the price falls below strong support that stands at 15,000 points, it would be a strong “sell” signal, and the next target could be around 14,500 points.

Summary

The European Central Bank will announce its decision on monetary policy next Thursday, which could significantly influence on DAX index in the near term. DAX index has advanced again above 15,500 points, and if the price jumps above 15,800 points, the next target could be at 16,000 points.

The post DAX index forecast ahead of the ECB meeting appeared first on Invezz.

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Economics

Poland Will Not Be “Blackmailed” Into Accepting European Union Laws, PM Morawiecki Says

Poland Will Not Be "Blackmailed" Into Accepting European Union Laws, PM Morawiecki Says

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Thursday that his country will not bow to the Europe

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Poland Will Not Be "Blackmailed" Into Accepting European Union Laws, PM Morawiecki Says

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Thursday that his country will not bow to the European Union’s “blackmail” on deciding legal frameworks of member states, but is open to constructive dialogue.

Arriving at a summit of the 27-member bloc, Morawiecki said that Poland “was as faithful to the rule of law as others and as the EU institutions are.” He added,

“Some EU institutions assume the right to decide on issues to which they have not been entitled to decide. They assume competencies which have not been handed over to them in the treaties.”

Morawiecki said that EU laws maintain supremacy over national laws on matters transferred to the EU. “We don’t agree to the constantly broadening range of competencies but we will, of course, talk about it.”

On Oct. 7, Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal ruled that some elements of EU law were incompatible with the country’s constitution. This ruling, criticized by Brussels, essentially gave national law primacy over that of the EU.

“It has to be clear: You are a member of a club, you have to abide by the rules of the club. And the most important rule of the club is that the European law is over national law,” the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, told Reuters.

Since the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party took over power in 2015, the ideological conflicts have incrementally increased.

European Parliament President David Sassoli said the Polish tribunal’s ruling challenged “the legal bedrock of our Union,” and that, “never before has the Union been called into question so radically.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen laid out three options as a response.

The first option, “infringement,” is where the commission legally challenges the verdict of the Polish court.

The second option, which is active currently, involves the withholding of funds. Warsaw will not be able to access the 36 billion euros ($42 billion) of COVID-19 pandemic recovery grants. This could lead to a further blockage of around 70 billion euros ($81 billion) set aside for development projects in the 2021-2027 budget.

The third option would be the implementation of Article 7 of the EU treaty which suspends member states of certain rights, including the right to vote on EU decisions.

Morawiecki, however, maintained his country’s stance under repeated criticism in the tense debate on Tuesday. This led to the idea of Poland exiting the bloc which the prime minister dismissed. He said that there were no plans for a “Polexit” as there is considerable support among the Polish for remaining within the EU.

A majority of European countries, including Ireland, France, Sweden, Finland, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands were critical of Poland, barring staunch ally Hungary. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has not been a supporter of excessive European Union interference in the laws and decisions of member states.

“Poland is one of the best European countries. There is no need for any sanctions, it’s ridiculous,” Orban said.

Dutch Foreign Minister Ben Knapen implied the issue will soon need to be addressed.

“The time for talking is never over, but it doesn’t mean that you cannot take action in the meantime,”  Knapen said. “It’s going to come soon.”

Outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for finding “ways of coming back together,” and warned against isolating Poland, the largest ex-communist EU country of 38 million people.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/23/2021 - 09:20

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Economics

Should I invest in Coca-Cola shares after a positive view from Morgan Stanley?

The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) shares have weakened from their recent highs above $57, registered in August 2021, and the current price stands at $54.45. Coca-Cola declared a $0.42 per share quarterly dividend last week, and Morgan Stanley continues…

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The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) shares have weakened from their recent highs above $57, registered in August 2021, and the current price stands at $54.45. Coca-Cola declared a $0.42 per share quarterly dividend last week, and Morgan Stanley continues to have a positive view on KO shares.

Morgan Stanley has a positive view

Coca-Cola continues to improve its position in the market, and the board of directors declared a $0.42/quarterly share dividend last week, which will be payable on December 15.

Coca-Cola reported better than expected second-quarter results in July; total revenue has increased by 42% Y/Y to $10.1 billion, which was more than expected, while the GAAP EPS was $0.61 (beats by $0.05).

Through the second quarter, volume trends steadily improved each month, driven by the recovery in markets from the pandemic, and the company’s management expects another EPS beat in Q3.

Coca-Cola expects to deliver organic revenue growth for the 2021 fiscal year of 12% to 14% and comparable EPS growth of 13% to 15% compared with the previous year.

According to the latest news, Molson Coors has signed an exclusive agreement with Coca-Cola to manufacture, market, and distribute Topo Chico Hard Seltzer in Canada. The product is scheduled to launch in the summer of 2022, less than two years after the successful launch in the United States.

Topo Chico Hard Seltzer has garnered a 2.4% share of the U.S. market, and this deal will certainly help Coca-Cola to expand its revenue base further.

Last month, Coca-Cola introduced a new global brand platform called Real Magic with a new campaign, “One Coke Away From Each Other.” This is the first new global platform since 2016, and the company’s stability in a variety of market conditions has revealed its true staying power.

Morgan Stanley has a positive view on KO shares with a price target of $65, representing 20% upside potential. Dara Mohsenian, an analyst from Morgan Stanley, added:

The outlook for Coca-Cola remains positive; we see some headwinds from the recent increase in global COVID cases and slightly lower our FY21 topline forecasts, but remain above consensus in 22/23. We expect a return to outsized sales growth vs. peers post COVID, with improved execution and higher margins.

Technically looking, Coca-Cola shares could advance above the current price levels, but this company is not undervalued with a market capitalization of $234 billion. The book value per share is around $5, and Coca-Cola trades at more than seventeen times TTM EBITDA.

$60 represents strong resistance

Data source: tradingview.com

Coca-Cola shares have weakened from their recent highs above $57, and if the price falls below $50 support, the next target could be at $45. On the other side, if the price jumps above the strong resistance that stands at $60, the next target could be at $65 or even above.

Summary

Coca-Cola shares have weakened from their recent highs above $57, but Morgan Stanley continues to have a positive view on KO shares with a price target of $65. Coca-Cola continues to improve its position in the market, but this company is not undervalued with a market capitalization of $234 billion.

The post Should I invest in Coca-Cola shares after a positive view from Morgan Stanley? appeared first on Invezz.

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