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Text Sent To Bank Strategist’s 16-Year-Old Son: “Guys I Am Freakin’ Out Right Now Tesla Is Down 45 Points… Ask Your Dad What’s Going On”

Text Sent To Bank Strategist’s 16-Year-Old Son: "Guys I Am Freakin’ Out Right Now Tesla Is Down 45 Points… Ask Your Dad What’s Going On"

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Text Sent To Bank Strategist's 16-Year-Old Son: "Guys I Am Freakin' Out Right Now Tesla Is Down 45 Points... Ask Your Dad What's Going On" Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2020 - 16:40

Much has been said about the growing influence of retail investors on the stock market, with this website explaining all the way back in May "how retail investors took over the stock market" thanks to generous government "stimulus" checks that were used to fund no-commission online trading brokerage accounts...

... a lack of bank prop traders and institutional investors (who were stuck WFM) to push back on such lunacy as Hertz stock hitting $1 billion in market cap  after the company filed for bankruptcy...

... and a frenzy in short-term levered bets via weekly call options that accentuated momentum and which SoftBank infamously capitalized on.

However, nothing captures the zeitgeist of the prevailing price setters better than the following quote from the latest Flow Show by Bank of America's chief investment officer, Michael Hartnett who shares a group text message sent to his 16 year old son on Sept 4, the day after Tesla cratered:

"Guys I am freakin' out right now Tesla is down 45 points can’t concentrate on Rocket League Billy ask your dad what is going on".

That's right: we now live in a world where for better or worse 16-year-olds are price setters and whose frenzied trading in "deep value" names such as Tesla is the reason why another BofA strategist, Jared Woodard, earlier this week declared that "the value factor as traditionally understood is broken" noting that the last ten years have seen the worst returns ever for US value stocks versus growth, even worse than during the dotcom bubble.

Woodard continues:

In the last 3 years value has given up all of its gains since the year 2000 (Chart 2). Since the lows in March of this year, value stocks have also struggled. The rebound in WTI crude oil from $12/bbl. to $43/bbl. has helped inflation expectations surge toward more normal levels, but even that hasn’t helped value recover (Chart 3).

But even before the coronavirus, value was performing poorly. Over the last ten years, value has rallied only twice, and more briefly (22m average) and weakly (16%/year).

All this suggests that the value factor as traditionally understood is broken.

Going back to the role retail investors have played in the historic post-March rebound which was the fastest recovery from a bear market in history...

... Hartnett shows another stunning chart which breaks down the positioning of investors via sentiment and flows Z-scores and finds that while "old retails" equity buyers (high net worth clients) took the buying lead in March, 'long only' and hedge funds prevailed in April & May, it was "new retail" - i.e., Robinhood daytraders such as Hartnett's son - that dominated in June thru  August. In fact, as shown in the chart below, retail traders had as much of an impact on August returns as hedge funds and derivative strategist (read SoftBank).

Yet even if one assumes that retail investors have become a bigger market force than hedge funds, long-onlies and the occasional Nasdaq whale, it would be naive to say the record rally from the March 23 lows is entirely thanks to 16-year-olds, and instead one has to look at why the momentum and growth strategies preferred by teenagers and Gen-Z have so handily outperformed value stocks, and why a basket of retail favorite stocks has crushed not only the S&P500 but hedge funds returns in 2020.

According to Woodard, the real reason why value has imploded (and greenlighted the piling of daytraders into growth and momentum stocks), is because, as we said last week, it's all one trade, a trade which has been made explicitly possible by the global economic slump which the BofA strategist says is "tThe most powerful explanation for the death of value." He explains:

The value factor is intimately tied to economic growth & inflation, and as both of those have become more scarce, so too have returns on any assets linked to them. A few key macro variables explain the ongoing mortification of value stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield, the ISM Purchasing Managers Index, and the 5-year forward 5-year inflation breakeven rate account for 79% of the variation in growth vs. value in recent decades (Chart 4).

Furthermore, there has always been a link between inflation (and inflation expectations) and value stocks: "for decades, value criteria have produced big exposures to cyclical, levered sectors like financials & energy and underweights in secular growers and defensives like technology, communications & health care" Woodard writes and demonstrates in the following chart:

And yet, in the post Lehman world of lower growth expectations, lower inflation and a flatter yield curve - a trend which was only supercharged by the Covid shutdowns - the biggest beneficiaries have been growing companies that rely on long-term debt (which they use among other thing to buy back record amounts of stock), while those same macro conditions also reduce the worth of short-term dividends, which are typically paid by value stocks.

Which brings us to the One Trade Chart (which we first showed last week): until the macro environment changes and inflation returns as the dominant market force, Woodward expects the winners of the 2000s and 2010s – growth vs. value, large caps vs. small, US vs. EAFE, market cap vs. equal-weight, USD vs. EM FX, Treasury bonds – to keep winning and to stay crowded.

Yet while the supremacy of the trades shown above (at the expense of value) is a symptom of the economic growth malaise, the real question then is what is behind the ascent of deflation and low rates.

Luckily, we have that answer too, having revealed it back on June 1, when with just one chart we blew up everything that is flawed with monetary policy. It showed that while lower rates indeed stimulate spending and lead to lower savings, this effect peaks at around 4% and then goes negative. In fact, the lower yields and rates drop below 4% - not to mention to 0% or below - the lower the propensity to spend and the higher the savings rate!

As BofA summarized this chart, "as low growth & inflation make low-risk-asset income scarce (e.g. from government bonds), households are forced to reduce consumption and increase savings in order to meet retirement goals. Forced saving further depresses demand in a vicious cycle."

Hence deflation. Hence why "growth" is flourishing, and why we now have reports about the death of value (i.e., reflation) investing.

There is another reason why this chart of such epic importance: it confirms what so many have known but were afraid to voice as it ran against decades of flawed economic theory: it demonstrates without a shadow of doubt, that hyper-easy monetary policy is not inflationary but is deflationary. Which is catastrophic for central banks, who publicly state that the only reason they are pursuing ultra easy monetary policy which includes QE and negative rates, is not to goose the market higher (even though by now we all know that's the real reason) but to stimulate inflation.

In any case, where the above logical chain leads us is that it is neither teenagers, nor SoftBank, nor hedge funds that are behind the rampant surge in growth - both in August and over the past decade - and the continued disintegration of value: they are merely riders on a bus that is and has always been driven by the Federal Reserve.

So is there any hope in the near or distant future that this will change? That the Fed will step off the gas and allow some normalcy to return to the market? Alas no, as Marko Kolanovic himself writes in a report today in which he make the bold prediction (bold, because until a few years ago it was only this website that would make it at the cost of great ridicule by so-called experts and sophisticated market pundits) that "without direct government transfers (stimulus and unemployment paychecks), continued central bank interventions, and massive borrowing from future generations, this "new normal" would have already collapsed."

And since the Fed will never voluntarily cede control over what is at its core an unstable equilibrium, we expect even greater acceleration of the "bizarre" trades observed in August when on more than one occasion it seemed that the market would go parabolic.

As such, our advice to the friends of the 16-year-old Michael Hartnett junior is the following: have patience - it is only a matter of time before not only Tesla but every other asset class goes supernova (unless Musk has a terminal meltdown on Twitter) as the Fed has no other choice but to keep doubling down until one day it all falls apart and the fiat monetary system that enabled this insanity finally ends.

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Key shipping company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

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The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Key shipping company files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

Published

on

The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Tight inventory and frustrated buyers challenge agents in Virginia

With inventory a little more than half of what it was pre-pandemic, agents are struggling to find homes for clients in Virginia.

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No matter where you are in the state, real estate agents in Virginia are facing low inventory conditions that are creating frustrating scenarios for their buyers.

“I think people are getting used to the interest rates where they are now, but there is just a huge lack of inventory,” said Chelsea Newcomb, a RE/MAX Realty Specialists agent based in Charlottesville. “I have buyers that are looking, but to find a house that you love enough to pay a high price for — and to be at over a 6.5% interest rate — it’s just a little bit harder to find something.”

Newcomb said that interest rates and higher prices, which have risen by more than $100,000 since March 2020, according to data from Altos Research, have caused her clients to be pickier when selecting a home.

“When rates and prices were lower, people were more willing to compromise,” Newcomb said.

Out in Wise, Virginia, near the westernmost tip of the state, RE/MAX Cavaliers agent Brett Tiller and his clients are also struggling to find suitable properties.

“The thing that really stands out, especially compared to two years ago, is the lack of quality listings,” Tiller said. “The slightly more upscale single-family listings for move-up buyers with children looking for their forever home just aren’t coming on the market right now, and demand is still very high.”

Statewide, Virginia had a 90-day average of 8,068 active single-family listings as of March 8, 2024, down from 14,471 single-family listings in early March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Altos Research. That represents a decrease of 44%.

Virginia-Inventory-Line-Chart-Virginia-90-day-Single-Family

In Newcomb’s base metro area of Charlottesville, there were an average of only 277 active single-family listings during the same recent 90-day period, compared to 892 at the onset of the pandemic. In Wise County, there were only 56 listings.

Due to the demand from move-up buyers in Tiller’s area, the average days on market for homes with a median price of roughly $190,000 was just 17 days as of early March 2024.

“For the right home, which is rare to find right now, we are still seeing multiple offers,” Tiller said. “The demand is the same right now as it was during the heart of the pandemic.”

According to Tiller, the tight inventory has caused homebuyers to spend up to six months searching for their new property, roughly double the time it took prior to the pandemic.

For Matt Salway in the Virginia Beach metro area, the tight inventory conditions are creating a rather hot market.

“Depending on where you are in the area, your listing could have 15 offers in two days,” the agent for Iron Valley Real Estate Hampton Roads | Virginia Beach said. “It has been crazy competition for most of Virginia Beach, and Norfolk is pretty hot too, especially for anything under $400,000.”

According to Altos Research, the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News housing market had a seven-day average Market Action Index score of 52.44 as of March 14, making it the seventh hottest housing market in the country. Altos considers any Market Action Index score above 30 to be indicative of a seller’s market.

Virginia-Beach-Metro-Area-Market-Action-Index-Line-Chart-Virginia-Beach-Norfolk-Newport-News-VA-NC-90-day-Single-Family

Further up the coastline on the vacation destination of Chincoteague Island, Long & Foster agent Meghan O. Clarkson is also seeing a decent amount of competition despite higher prices and interest rates.

“People are taking their time to actually come see things now instead of buying site unseen, and occasionally we see some seller concessions, but the traffic and the demand is still there; you might just work a little longer with people because we don’t have anything for sale,” Clarkson said.

“I’m busy and constantly have appointments, but the underlying frenzy from the height of the pandemic has gone away, but I think it is because we have just gotten used to it.”

While much of the demand that Clarkson’s market faces is for vacation homes and from retirees looking for a scenic spot to retire, a large portion of the demand in Salway’s market comes from military personnel and civilians working under government contracts.

“We have over a dozen military bases here, plus a bunch of shipyards, so the closer you get to all of those bases, the easier it is to sell a home and the faster the sale happens,” Salway said.

Due to this, Salway said that existing-home inventory typically does not come on the market unless an employment contract ends or the owner is reassigned to a different base, which is currently contributing to the tight inventory situation in his market.

Things are a bit different for Tiller and Newcomb, who are seeing a decent number of buyers from other, more expensive parts of the state.

“One of the crazy things about Louisa and Goochland, which are kind of like suburbs on the western side of Richmond, is that they are growing like crazy,” Newcomb said. “A lot of people are coming in from Northern Virginia because they can work remotely now.”

With a Market Action Index score of 50, it is easy to see why people are leaving the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria market for the Charlottesville market, which has an index score of 41.

In addition, the 90-day average median list price in Charlottesville is $585,000 compared to $729,900 in the D.C. area, which Newcomb said is also luring many Virginia homebuyers to move further south.

Median-Price-D.C.-vs.-Charlottesville-Line-Chart-90-day-Single-Family

“They are very accustomed to higher prices, so they are super impressed with the prices we offer here in the central Virginia area,” Newcomb said.

For local buyers, Newcomb said this means they are frequently being outbid or outpriced.

“A couple who is local to the area and has been here their whole life, they are just now starting to get their mind wrapped around the fact that you can’t get a house for $200,000 anymore,” Newcomb said.

As the year heads closer to spring, triggering the start of the prime homebuying season, agents in Virginia feel optimistic about the market.

“We are seeing seasonal trends like we did up through 2019,” Clarkson said. “The market kind of soft launched around President’s Day and it is still building, but I expect it to pick right back up and be in full swing by Easter like it always used to.”

But while they are confident in demand, questions still remain about whether there will be enough inventory to support even more homebuyers entering the market.

“I have a lot of buyers starting to come off the sidelines, but in my office, I also have a lot of people who are going to list their house in the next two to three weeks now that the weather is starting to break,” Newcomb said. “I think we are going to have a good spring and summer.”

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