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TDR’s U.S. Stock Market Preview For The Week Of August 29, 2022

A weekly stock market preview and the data that will impact the tape. Sunday Evening Futures Open – Stock Market Preview Weekend News And Developments…

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A weekly stock market preview and the data that will impact the tape.

Sunday Evening Futures Open – Stock Market Preview

Weekend News And Developments

Air travel service complaints jumped nearly 270% from pre-pandemic levels in June 2019, according to the Department of Transportation’s (DOT) air travel consumer report released Friday.

Adidas ended its partnership with Major League Baseball star Fernando Tatis Jr. after he was suspended for 80 games without pay due to performance-enhancing drugs.

Amarin Corporation plc announced that new REDUCE-IT data show that VASCEPA/VAZKEPA (icosapent ethyl) significantly reduced cardiovascular (CV) events in patients with a history of smoking.

AstraZeneca’s blockbuster diabetes drug Farxiga led to significant reductions in the risk of hospitalization and death in people with all types of heart failure, according to study data released on Saturday, opening the door to a substantial increase in patients who could benefit.

Barron’s Op-Ed: Fed Chief Talks Tough on Inflation. There’s More Pain Ahead for Stocks.

Bayer announced the start of a Phase III clinical development program “OCEANIC” to investigate the efficacy and safety of asundexian (BAY 2433334), an investigational oral Factor XIa (FXIa) inhibitor, in patients with atrial fibrillation (irregular heartbeat) and in patients with a non-cardioembolic ischemic stroke or high-risk transient ischemic attack.

Bitcoin dipped below $20,000 on Saturday, continuing a drop that has taken it down nearly 60% from its year high.

Boris Johnson on Sunday warned that the country would face “eye-watering” energy bills and promised his successor would soon announce a “huge package” of financial support for struggling households.

CoinSwitch is cooperating with the national financial-crime agency, whose agents searched its offices this week to find out about its business model and user-onboarding processes, its CEO told Reuters on Saturday.

Dell Technologies Inc. said on Saturday it had ceased all Russian operations after closing its offices in mid-August, the latest in a growing list of Western firms to exit Russia.

European Central Bank needs another significant interest rate hike in September and should hit the “neutral” level before the end of the year, French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Saturday.

FedEx Corp filed suit asking a federal judge to stop one of its largest delivery contractors from spreading misinformation about its business for financial gain, and confirmed that it severed its relationship with him, effective immediately.

Global Infrastructure Solutions (GISI) and Hill International, Inc. (NYSE: HIL) announced that their boards of directors have approved enhancements to their definitive agreement of August 16, 2022, wherein they agreed to merge the diversified construction management companies. Following the receipt of an unsolicited proposal from a third party, Hill and GISI negotiated an amended and restated Merger Agreement under the terms of which the per share price is US$3.40, the transaction remains all-cash, and there is no financing contingency. 

Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies of Johnson & Johnson announced the final results from the randomized Phase 2 GRIFFIN study evaluating the investigational use of DARZALEX® (daratumumab) in combination with lenalidomide (Revlimid®), bortezomib (VELCADE®) and dexamethasone (DARZALEX®-RVd), followed by maintenance therapy with DARZALEX®-lenalidomide (R), compared to RVd followed by maintenance therapy with R alone, in patients with newly diagnosed, transplant-eligible multiple myeloma.

Medtronic Extravascular ICD meets global pivotal clinical trial’s safety and effectiveness endpoints.

Norway’s Equinor is considering selling a 28% stake in Statfjord field, which straddles the Norwegian and British continental shelves, alongside minority stakes in several satellite fields, a presentation seen by Reuters showed.

Russia’s central bank said on Saturday a slight easing of foreign currency restrictions on banks that took effect this week would boost the supply of cash dollars and euros on the local market.

Small business: The percentage of small business owners unable to make rent hasn’t been this high since March 2021.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp said it had signed a framework agreement to invest $7.5 billion for a new 12-inch foundry production line in Tianjin.

Sinopec 2022 interim profit reached record high level H-Shares annualized dividend yield exceeding 10% coupled with shares repurchase plan.

Testing June’s stock market low isn’t a foregone conclusion. From a birds eye view, the market could be undergoing a typical setback to consolidate the near-19% rally from the intraday June 16 low to the mid-August high.

Two South Korean companies have signed a $5.76 billion contract with Poland to export tanks and howitzers, Seoul’s arms procurement agency said on Saturday, after Warsaw agreed to ramp up arms imports amid tensions with Russia.

United Steelworkers said that the union has reached tentative agreement on a new, four-year contract on behalf of roughly 12,000 members at 13 Cleveland-Cliffs locations.  

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren said on Sunday that she was very worried that the Federal Reserve was going to tip the U.S. economy into recession.

What The Analysts Are Saying…

“After JPow punched the market in the face on Friday, BTC lost the trend coming off the June low. Now the question is whether that local low holds. Currently not seeing enough bid liquidity to get excited.”Material Indicators, on the current state of the Bitcoin trade

“Some of the price corrections that are in the public record understate just how drastic the correction has been… demand fell sharply in May and June… We still will have, even for the deals that are under contract, a very high cancellation rate.”Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman, on broad macro housing market conditions

“There is nothing in raising the interest rates, nothing in Jerome Powell’s tool bag that deals directly with those, and he has admitted as much in congressional hearings when I’ve asked him about it,” she continued. “Do you know what’s worse than high prices and a strong economy? It’s high prices and millions of people out of work. I’m very worried that the Fed is going to tip this economy into recession.”U.S. Senator (D-MA) Elizabeth Warren

We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%… Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.”Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Friday speech in Jackson Hole, WY

What We’re Watching

• Additional strength in AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (NYSE: MSOS)?: Whenever a liquid ETF diverges from the broad market by double-digits on a percentage basis it catches our attention. That happened last week in MSOS, which finished +9.42% in a week where the NASDAQ and S&P 500 both shed over 4 percent. This was the largest weekly divergence from the broad averages in a very long time. Trough-to-peak, MSOS had risen exactly 33.73% from the June 30 low (Aug. 25), and held up relatively well on Friday during the broad market rout ($13.00, -0.31, -2.33%).

Trough-to-peak, MSOS has risen exactly 33.73% from the June 30 low (Aug. 25)

For several quarters, persistent headwinds have hammered U.S. cannabis and sending prices ever lower (U.S. consumer slowdown, high inflations, margin compression, lack of regulatory progress, to name a few). Investor sentiment remains low. However, with Q2 2022 earnings season behind the sector and many analysts/CEOs believing Q2 was a cyclical low in revenue growth/gross margins—and with at least a chance of federal reform on the horizon, sentiment appears to be shifting.

Beyond the fundamentals, Seabreeze Partners Management President Doug Kass helped galvanize sentiment last week by penning an article 10 Reasons Why I Plan To Substantially Increase My Cannabis Holdings, which appeared on Real Money on August 23. Doug had been a bear on U.S. cannabis in 2022 previously, but believes improving fundamentals and low valuations make the sector attractive at today’s levels.

We note that restrictions on naked short selling of securities in Canada is also believed to be playing a part in the current price action in U.S. cannabis. The IIROC recently issued a guidance notice on the obligation of a Participant to have reasonable expectations, prior to the entry of a short sale order, that sufficient securities will be available to allow the participant to settle any resulting trade on settlement date.

We’ll be watching with interest to see if MSOS is able to overtake the simple 100-Day MA ($13.50)—something that hasn’t happened since May 3, 2021.

Initial Jobless Claims and Non-Farm Payrolls: Numbers Still Look OK: On Thursday, weekly Jobless Claims may give some clues as to the strength on national employment, which has held up stubbornly well despite recent reports of some Fortune 500 companies paring back the workforce. The numbers have been creeping higher since setting lows this spring. But until we see claims spike above 300,000 per week, the unemployment rate should hold steady. Last report came in better than expected at 243,000 new claims, so headline risk is low.

1-Year U.S. unemployment rate remains near record lows

The non farm payroll report in July showed the US economy added 528K jobs last month—much better than market forecasts of 250K and above an upwardly revised 398K in June. This took the market by surprise and provided evidence to some that the economy was more resilient than expected. The medium estimate is about 300,000 jobs in August, to be released Friday morning.

U.S. Economic Calendar

TIME (ET)REPORTPERIODMEDIAN FORECASTPREVIOUS
Monday, August 15
None scheduled
Tuesday, Aug. 30
9:00 AMS&P Case-Shiller U.S. home price index (year-over-year)June19.80%
10:00 AMConsumer confidence indexAug.9795.7
10:00 AMJob openingsJuly10.7 million
10:00 AMQuitsJuly4.2 million
11:00 AMNew York Fed President John Williams speaks
Wednesday, Aug. 31
8:00 AMCleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks
8:15 AMADP employment reportAug.310,000N/A
9:45 AMChicago manufacturing PMIAug.5352.1
6:30 PMAltanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks
Thursday, Sept. 1
8:30 AMInitial jobless claimsAug. 27243,000
8:30 AMContinuing jobless claimsAug. 201.42 million
8:30 AMProductivity revision (SAAR)Q2-5.00%-4.60%
8:30 AMUnit labor costs revision (SAAR)Q210.80%10.80%
9:45 AMS&P U.S. manufacturing PMI (final)Aug.52.2
10:00 AMISM manufacturing indexAug.52.00%52.8
10:00 AMConstruction spendingJuly0.00%-1.10%
3:30 PMAltanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks
VariesLight motor vehicle sales (SAAR)Aug.13.5 million
Friday, Sept. 2
8:30 AMNonfarm payrollsAug.325,000528,000
8:30 AMUnemployment rateAug.3.50%3.50%
8:30 AMAverage hourly earningsAug.0.40%0.50%
8:30 AMLabor-force participation rate, 25-54 yearsAug.82.40%
10:00 AMFactory ordersJuly0.30%2.00%
10:00 AMCore capital equipment orders revisionJuly0.40%
8:30 AMEmpire state manufacturing indexJuly-1-1.2
8:45 AMAtlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks
10:00 AMUMich consumer sentiment index (preliminary)July50.250
10:00 AMUMich 5-year inflation expectations (preliminary)July3.10%

Meme Of The Week

Key Earnings (US Markets)

DateCompanySymbolEarnings estimate
Monday, August 29CatalentCTLT$1.15 per share
SelectQuoteSLQT-$0.16
Tuesday, Aug. 30AmbarellaAMBA$0.19
BaiduBIDU$10.83
Best BuyBBY$1.29
Big LotsBIG-$2.46
ChewyCHWY-$0.12
Conn’sCONN$0.09
CrowdStrikeCRWD$0.27
HP Inc.HPQ$1.04
Hewlett Packard EnterpriseHPE$0.48
PhotronicsPLAB$0.50
Wednesday, August 31AnaplanPLAN-$0.07
Brown-FormanBF.B$0.47
CooperCOO$3.26
Designer BrandsDBI$0.52
DonaldsonDCI$0.12
Five BelowFIVE$0.79
MongoDBMDB-$0.28
OktaOKTA-$0.30
Pure StoragePSTG$0.22
SemtechSMTC$0.85
Veeva SystemsVEEV$1.01
Vera BradleyVRA$0.12
Thursday, September 1BroadcomAVGO$9.55
Campbell SoupCPB$0.56
CienaCIEN$0.34
GenescoGCO$0.27
G-III ApparelGIII$0.47
Hormel FoodsHRL$0.41
JOANNJOAN$-$0.52
Lululemon AthleticaLULU$1.86
Ollie’s Bargain OutletOLLI$0.33
SecureWorksSCWX-$0.17
Signet JewelersSIG$2.59
Sportsman’s WarehouseSPWH$0.26
ToroTTC$1.13
WeiboWB$0.45
Friday, September 2Nothing notable
Source: CNN Business – TDR’s stock market preview sentiment indicator

Past Week What’s Hot… and What’s Not

Source: TradingView – TDR’ stock market preview what’s hot this past week

Top 12 High Short Interest Stocks

TickerCompanyExchangeShortIntFloatS/OIndustry
ICPTIntercept Pharmaceuticals IncNasdaq48.79%23.69M29.80MBiotechnology & Medical Research
BBBYBed Bath & Beyond Inc.Nasdaq40.44%76.05M79.96MRetail (Specialty Non-Apparel)
UPSTUpstart Holdings IncNasdaq37.46%69.40M84.77MConsumer Lending
BIGBig Lots, Inc.NYSE37.09%26.49M28.92MRetailers – Discount Stores
BYNDBeyond Meat IncNasdaq34.35%56.77M63.54MFood Processing
EVGOEvgo IncNasdaq33.99%67.69M69.08MUtilities – Electric
HRTXHeron Therapeutics IncNasdaq33.21%102.38M102.14MBiotechnology & Medical Research
MSTRMicroStrategy IncNasdaq32.82%9.33M9.34MSoftware & Programming
BGFVBig 5 Sporting Goods CorpNasdaq32.11%20.71M22.18MRetailers – Miscellaneous Specialty
WWayfair IncNYSE29.16%70.80M80.51MRetailers – Department Stores
SWTXSpringWorks Therapeutics IncNasdaq28.84%32.22M49.41MBiotechnology & Medical Research
NKLANikola CorporationNasdaq28.12%277.61M433.48MAuto & Truck Manufacturers
Source: highshortinterest.com (data as of August 26)TDR’ stock market preview, Top 12 High Short Interest Stocks

Tags: stock market preview, stock market preview August 29, 2022.

The post TDR’s U.S. Stock Market Preview For The Week Of August 29, 2022 appeared first on The Dales Report.

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Global Wages Take A Hit As Inflation Eats Into Paychecks

Global Wages Take A Hit As Inflation Eats Into Paychecks

The global inflation crisis paired with lackluster economic growth and an outlook…

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Global Wages Take A Hit As Inflation Eats Into Paychecks

The global inflation crisis paired with lackluster economic growth and an outlook clouded by uncertainties have led to a decline in real wages around the world, a new report published by the International Labour Organization (ILO) has found.

As Statista's Felix Richter reports, according to the 2022-23 Global Wage Report, global real monthly wages fell 0.9 percent this year on average, marking the first decline in real earnings at a global scale in the 21st century.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The multiple global crises we are facing have led to a decline in real wages.

"It has placed tens of millions of workers in a dire situation as they face increasing uncertainties,” ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo said in a statement, adding that “income inequality and poverty will rise if the purchasing power of the lowest paid is not maintained.”

While inflation rose faster in high-income countries, leading to above-average real wage declines in North America (minus 3.2 percent) and the European Union (minus 2.4 percent), the ILO finds that low-income earners are disproportionately affected by rising inflation. As lower-wage earners spend a larger share of their disposable income on essential goods and services, which generally see greater price increases than non-essential items, those who can least afford it suffer the biggest cost-of-living impact of rising prices.

“We must place particular attention to workers at the middle and lower end of the pay scale,” Rosalia Vazquez-Alvarez, one of the report’s authors said.

“Fighting against the deterioration of real wages can help maintain economic growth, which in turn can help to recover the employment levels observed before the pandemic. This can be an effective way to lessen the probability or depth of recessions in all countries and regions,” she said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/05/2022 - 20:00

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Metaverse comes in second place as Oxford’s word of the year

The term describing an internet-enabled virtual world lost to "goblin mode" in 2022 — "a type of behavior which is unapologetically self-indulgent, lazy,…

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The term describing an internet-enabled virtual world lost to "goblin mode" in 2022 — "a type of behavior which is unapologetically self-indulgent, lazy, slovenly, or greedy."

“Metaverse” has come in second to “goblin mode” as the Oxford University Press’ 2022 word of the year after the process was opened up to voters for the first time ever.

In a Dec. 4 announcement, Oxford Languages said the viral term “goblin mode” beat out “metaverse” and #IStandWith to become its 2022 word of the year. According to Oxford’s research, usage of the term metaverse “increased almost fourfold from the previous year in the Oxford Corpus,” driven in part by Facebook’s rebranding to Meta in October 2021.

Metaverse lost to goblin mode, which went viral in February, as it seemingly “captured the prevailing mood of individuals who rejected the idea of returning to ‘normal life’” following COVID-19 lockdowns being lifted in many areas. #IStandWith took third place in the contest, driven by social media hashtags including #IStandWithUkraine following Russia’s invasion of the country in February.

“As we grapple with relatively new concepts like hybrid working in the virtual reality space, metaverse is particularly pertinent to debates about the ethics and feasibility of an entirely online future," said Oxford Languages. "A worthy opponent to ‘goblin mode’, ‘metaverse’ gained voting traction with crypto communities and publications. We see the term continue to grow in use as more voices join the debate about the sustainability and viability of its future."

In the video pitch for ‘metaverse’ released in November, Oxford said the term dated back to “the science fiction novel Snow Crash by Neil Stephenson,” released in 1992.

More than 300,000 people cast votes between the three terms shortlisted by Oxford Languages.

Related: The metaverse is happening without Meta's permission

“NFT,” or nonfungible token, won Collins Dictionary’s contest for the word of 2021, while “vax” took first place as Oxford’s chosen word that the same year. The latest results seemingly represent a change in social media fervor around the crypto-related terms, which was reportedly falling in the first quarter of 2022.

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United Airlines stock has a 50% upside from here: Morgan Stanley

United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: UAL) is keeping in the green on Monday in an otherwise down market after a Morgan Stanley analyst said 2023 could…

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United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: UAL) is keeping in the green on Monday in an otherwise down market after a Morgan Stanley analyst said 2023 could be a “goldilocks” year for the air carrier.

United Airlines stock has upside to $67

Ravi Shanker sees upside in the airline holding company to $67 that translates to a near 50% premium on its current stock price.

He upgraded United Airlines stock to “overweight” this morning because he’s convinced that international travel will recover swiftly in 2023.

Earnings recovery post pandemic has kept pace with, if not led, peers and messaging has been very confident. We expect more normalised, just right conditions in 2023, stabilizing at level more favourable to earnings that market is pricing in.

Shanker expects continued leisure demand next year while business travel, he wrote, could exceed levels last seen before the COVID pandemic.

UAL has outperformed peers year-to-date

According to the Morgan Stanley analyst, prices will ease in 2023 as capacity returns. CASMxF trajectory was among other reasons cited for the bullish call.

United Airlines stock is roughly flat for the year at writing versus other major airline stocks in the red. Still, Shanker continues to see its current valuation as attractive. His note reads:

United Airlines Holdings Inc seems on track to exceed its 2023 guidance and to hit its 2026 guide issued eighteen months ago – something even the biggest UAL bulls may have considered difficult at the time.

In October, the Chicago-headquartered air carrier reported its financial results for the third quarter that handily topped Street estimates.

The post United Airlines stock has a 50% upside from here: Morgan Stanley appeared first on Invezz.

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