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Taper Rejection: Mao Back On China’s Front Page

Chinese run media, the Global Times, blatantly tweeted an homage to China’s late leader Mao Zedong commemorating his 128th birthday. Fully understanding the storm of controversy this would create, with the Communist government’s full approval, such…

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Chinese run media, the Global Times, blatantly tweeted an homage to China’s late leader Mao Zedong commemorating his 128th birthday. Fully understanding the storm of controversy this would create, with the Communist government’s full approval, such a provocation has been taken in the West as if just one more chess piece played in its geopolitical game against the United States in particular.

No. The Communists really mean it. Mao’s their guy again.

When Deng Xiaoping rescued China from the clutches of Mao’s madman aftermath in the late seventies (Mao died in September ’76 leaving no clear successor, and Deng outmaneuvered several rivals by 1978 to become de facto leader at the 3rd Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee), he slowly came to the conclusion (with a huge assist from the smoldering rubble of the Soviet experience in the eighties) the Chinese Communists must turn their back on their first megalomaniacal leader.

Embracing a limited form of capitalism, Deng was as committed a communist as Mao had been but was able to more honestly and astutely see and appreciate the difference between theory (or plain stupidity, as in the Great Leap “Forward”) and practical reality. China had to grow itself into the wealthy society Karl Marx had long ago cautioned was the only kind of society “able” to transition to full-blown communism (Marx had argued against any pre-industrial system attempting this, yet those were the only types which fell for the “revolution” in the 20th century).

Not by luck or random coincidence, the Chinese especially following Deng’s 1992 (timing no coincidence) Southern Tour (Nánxún) embraced the eurodollar explosion then underway creating the most fertile conditions for the sweeping wave of globalization that China’s previously untapped mass of labor could most cheaply exploit. Oversimplifying a bit here, eurodollar expansion met Deng’s version of Socialism in a marriage made in hellish convenience; even China’s internal RMB monetary system would become totally dollar-ized!

It is unclear whether or not any one of Deng’s successors had anticipated a stop date, a terminal point for the experiment. What we do know today – not that any Western outlet seems to have figured this out despite how open the Chinese Communists have been about everything – is that Xi Jinping came to see his role as reversing course.

Earlier in March, Xi’s government took yet another authoritarian step whose only logical ends lay out this intended long march (double pun double intended). It is a punishable crime to slander China’s “heroes” or its “legends” such as Mao Zedong (and, obviously, Mr. Pooh himself).

China’s Communist Party has long policed dissent, severely restricting public discussion of topics it deems to be politically incorrect, from Tibet to the Tiananmen Square protests. The new law goes further. It has criminalized as slander topics that were once subjects of historical debate and research, including Mao’s rule itself up to a point. Since March, the law has been used at least 15 times to punish people who slight party history.

Under Xi, who took over in 2012 and has, like Mao, expertly manipulated his political power into de facto dictatorship using a purposefully cultivated Cult of Personality, first China’s economic trajectory followed by its political organization has been to move in determined, methodical fashion back in time toward Mao’s (dangerous) type of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics.

You can literally (sorry for the Millennial-speak, but I think it an appropriate use in this case) see the transition and its unfortunate timing – 2011. That was the year when Hu Jintao was supposedly preparing Li Keqiang to take over, a planned measure of stability that likely would have been dependent upon restarted globalization following the Great (and “somehow” global) “Recession.”

Instead, 2011 was another year of “unexpected” serious global monetary crisis the results of which in 2012 weren’t limited to just a European recession. China fell backward, too, hard, and suddenly Li was out and the hardcore military guy Xi fell right into the driver’s seat.

Then Document #9 slipped its way into the official stream of doctrine and dogma.

This all coalesced into what’s been called Document No. 9; an anodyne name given to what doesn’t really have an official title. It was simply the ninth paper to be published by the Party’s General Office in April 2013, but it was an unappreciated doozy which mapped out the direction China has eventually followed under Xi Jinping.

It enumerated “seven perils” that essentially targeted all forms of Western beliefs encompassing the neo-liberal trade and constitutional order we take for granted – and, at that time, it was widely believed the Chinese were still interested in incorporating more deeply to best position China as a further key partner in the global order. Up to then, it had been assumed – again, government intelligence – they’d become more like us.

When the dollars were flowing, they loved the dollars and us. Not that they aren’t, geopolitics has chilled to a decided Cold War temperature. Random coincidence?

No. Rate of change in economy goes down, rate of change in (geo)politics goes way up.



This isn’t just about the perilous position of Xi’s lusty, what-he-thinks necessarily jealous gaze toward Taiwan, or various other chess pieces being positioned around the board. There’s still the same economics (small “e”) here, too.

To start with, 2021 has been a total wipeout. The recession in 2020 was supposed to have led to a full recovery – haven’t you heard about the global inflationary boom? On the contrary, the Chinese economy was indeed hit hard but then failed to get much going afterward. Since around, oh, April and May this year it has taken another turn for the slow, not acceleration.

Stunned, officials around the Western world have refigured what they might be able to more plausibly expect from China’s economic system the world was told to expect would be able to bail everyone out of the coronavirus (overreaction) malaise.

For example, the World Bank last week rejiggered its (not useful) econometric models for the same sort of incorrect assumptions it had fallen victim to in 2012; again in 2015 and 2016; one more time in 2018 and 2019. As of these latest statistical simulations, real GDP in China (GDP as constant prices) is thought to rebound only 8.5% for the full year (rather than the double digits initially believed at its start) but then just 5.1% in 2022.

Ouch.

It wasn’t all that long ago when 8% real GDP growth was said to be China’s absolute bottom, its recession-line. And then it was 7%. Now…

Nowadays, combine 2020 with 2021 plus that five in 2022, and that’s three years with way, way less Chinese economic expansion than the world had thought back when the world was preoccupied with figuring out how to live with less than eight.

Despite all of this – from the lack of post-COVID real recovery to the onrushing politics of Xi-hearts-Mao – here’s the World Bank’s favored punchline at the end of its China downgrade:

Though growth is projected to slow next year, we expect momentum to pick up, aided by a more supportive fiscal stance.

Was that a joke, an uncomfortable attempt at humor given how uncomfortable this has all become? How much more does Xi have to do, all out in the open, for this Keynesian nonsense to die? Like all the myths about the Federal Reserve and central bank “stimulus”, it is just taken for granted that everyone already does and always will follow the same standard neo-Keynesian format (while simultaneously assuming it actually works).

Speaking of central banks, Xi’s is likewise busy at work being conspicuously unworked up about Evergrande and all the same downside economic risks (“growth scare”) now clearly emerging across its monetary face. The PBOC isn’t going to be riding to the rest of the world’s rescue, either.



And that’s not all, monetarily speaking, as there are increasing signs and warning sounds coming from the PBOC or from its direction which indicate even more of those, behaving even more intensely (I’ll have to save them for another day; it has to do with CNY, possibly CNH, and almost certainly one or both of the “others”).

When the eurodollar system was working, or, at least it appeared to be, globalization opened the door for China to shake off its Maoist madness and narrowly (something happened in 1989, though in China you’re not allowed to say, type, or think what it was) avoid joining the Soviets in their highly deserved fate. The dollars disappeared first in ’08 and then for good in ’11 despite repeated monumental QE’s (what floods?), globalization became a bad word, and today Mao is back on the theoretical throne right next to Emperor Xi.

But inflation, right?

What’s even more comical is how the same Global Times which tweeted the provocative Mao lovefest shown at the outset had right before it tweeted another (immediately above) which played into these same Western economic conceits. The Communists are better at Economics than Economists, though neither has much to offer real economies.

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There will soon be one million seats on this popular Amtrak route

“More people are taking the train than ever before,” says Amtrak’s Executive Vice President.

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While the size of the United States makes it hard for it to compete with the inter-city train access available in places like Japan and many European countries, Amtrak trains are a very popular transportation option in certain pockets of the country — so much so that the country’s national railway company is expanding its Northeast Corridor by more than one million seats.

Related: This is what it's like to take a 19-hour train from New York to Chicago

Running from Boston all the way south to Washington, D.C., the route is one of the most popular as it passes through the most densely populated part of the country and serves as a commuter train for those who need to go between East Coast cities such as New York and Philadelphia for business.

Veronika Bondarenko captured this photo of New York’s Moynihan Train Hall. 

Veronika Bondarenko

Amtrak launches new routes, promises travelers ‘additional travel options’

Earlier this month, Amtrak announced that it was adding four additional Northeastern routes to its schedule — two more routes between New York’s Penn Station and Union Station in Washington, D.C. on the weekend, a new early-morning weekday route between New York and Philadelphia’s William H. Gray III 30th Street Station and a weekend route between Philadelphia and Boston’s South Station.

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According to Amtrak, these additions will increase Northeast Corridor’s service by 20% on the weekdays and 10% on the weekends for a total of one million additional seats when counted by how many will ride the corridor over the year.

“More people are taking the train than ever before and we’re proud to offer our customers additional travel options when they ride with us on the Northeast Regional,” Amtrak Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Eliot Hamlisch said in a statement on the new routes. “The Northeast Regional gets you where you want to go comfortably, conveniently and sustainably as you breeze past traffic on I-95 for a more enjoyable travel experience.”

Here are some of the other Amtrak changes you can expect to see

Amtrak also said that, in the 2023 financial year, the Northeast Corridor had nearly 9.2 million riders — 8% more than it had pre-pandemic and a 29% increase from 2022. The higher demand, particularly during both off-peak hours and the time when many business travelers use to get to work, is pushing Amtrak to invest into this corridor in particular.

To reach more customers, Amtrak has also made several changes to both its routes and pricing system. In the fall of 2023, it introduced a type of new “Night Owl Fare” — if traveling during very late or very early hours, one can go between cities like New York and Philadelphia or Philadelphia and Washington. D.C. for $5 to $15.

As travel on the same routes during peak hours can reach as much as $300, this was a deliberate move to reach those who have the flexibility of time and might have otherwise preferred more affordable methods of transportation such as the bus. After seeing strong uptake, Amtrak added this type of fare to more Boston routes.

The largest distances, such as the ones between Boston and New York or New York and Washington, are available at the lowest rate for $20.

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The next pandemic? It’s already here for Earth’s wildlife

Bird flu is decimating species already threatened by climate change and habitat loss.

I am a conservation biologist who studies emerging infectious diseases. When people ask me what I think the next pandemic will be I often say that we are in the midst of one – it’s just afflicting a great many species more than ours.

I am referring to the highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1), otherwise known as bird flu, which has killed millions of birds and unknown numbers of mammals, particularly during the past three years.

This is the strain that emerged in domestic geese in China in 1997 and quickly jumped to humans in south-east Asia with a mortality rate of around 40-50%. My research group encountered the virus when it killed a mammal, an endangered Owston’s palm civet, in a captive breeding programme in Cuc Phuong National Park Vietnam in 2005.

How these animals caught bird flu was never confirmed. Their diet is mainly earthworms, so they had not been infected by eating diseased poultry like many captive tigers in the region.

This discovery prompted us to collate all confirmed reports of fatal infection with bird flu to assess just how broad a threat to wildlife this virus might pose.

This is how a newly discovered virus in Chinese poultry came to threaten so much of the world’s biodiversity.

H5N1 originated on a Chinese poultry farm in 1997. ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock

The first signs

Until December 2005, most confirmed infections had been found in a few zoos and rescue centres in Thailand and Cambodia. Our analysis in 2006 showed that nearly half (48%) of all the different groups of birds (known to taxonomists as “orders”) contained a species in which a fatal infection of bird flu had been reported. These 13 orders comprised 84% of all bird species.

We reasoned 20 years ago that the strains of H5N1 circulating were probably highly pathogenic to all bird orders. We also showed that the list of confirmed infected species included those that were globally threatened and that important habitats, such as Vietnam’s Mekong delta, lay close to reported poultry outbreaks.

Mammals known to be susceptible to bird flu during the early 2000s included primates, rodents, pigs and rabbits. Large carnivores such as Bengal tigers and clouded leopards were reported to have been killed, as well as domestic cats.

Our 2006 paper showed the ease with which this virus crossed species barriers and suggested it might one day produce a pandemic-scale threat to global biodiversity.

Unfortunately, our warnings were correct.

A roving sickness

Two decades on, bird flu is killing species from the high Arctic to mainland Antarctica.

In the past couple of years, bird flu has spread rapidly across Europe and infiltrated North and South America, killing millions of poultry and a variety of bird and mammal species. A recent paper found that 26 countries have reported at least 48 mammal species that have died from the virus since 2020, when the latest increase in reported infections started.

Not even the ocean is safe. Since 2020, 13 species of aquatic mammal have succumbed, including American sea lions, porpoises and dolphins, often dying in their thousands in South America. A wide range of scavenging and predatory mammals that live on land are now also confirmed to be susceptible, including mountain lions, lynx, brown, black and polar bears.

The UK alone has lost over 75% of its great skuas and seen a 25% decline in northern gannets. Recent declines in sandwich terns (35%) and common terns (42%) were also largely driven by the virus.

Scientists haven’t managed to completely sequence the virus in all affected species. Research and continuous surveillance could tell us how adaptable it ultimately becomes, and whether it can jump to even more species. We know it can already infect humans – one or more genetic mutations may make it more infectious.

At the crossroads

Between January 1 2003 and December 21 2023, 882 cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus were reported from 23 countries, of which 461 (52%) were fatal.

Of these fatal cases, more than half were in Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Laos. Poultry-to-human infections were first recorded in Cambodia in December 2003. Intermittent cases were reported until 2014, followed by a gap until 2023, yielding 41 deaths from 64 cases. The subtype of H5N1 virus responsible has been detected in poultry in Cambodia since 2014. In the early 2000s, the H5N1 virus circulating had a high human mortality rate, so it is worrying that we are now starting to see people dying after contact with poultry again.

It’s not just H5 subtypes of bird flu that concern humans. The H10N1 virus was originally isolated from wild birds in South Korea, but has also been reported in samples from China and Mongolia.

Recent research found that these particular virus subtypes may be able to jump to humans after they were found to be pathogenic in laboratory mice and ferrets. The first person who was confirmed to be infected with H10N5 died in China on January 27 2024, but this patient was also suffering from seasonal flu (H3N2). They had been exposed to live poultry which also tested positive for H10N5.

Species already threatened with extinction are among those which have died due to bird flu in the past three years. The first deaths from the virus in mainland Antarctica have just been confirmed in skuas, highlighting a looming threat to penguin colonies whose eggs and chicks skuas prey on. Humboldt penguins have already been killed by the virus in Chile.

A colony of king penguins.
Remote penguin colonies are already threatened by climate change. AndreAnita/Shutterstock

How can we stem this tsunami of H5N1 and other avian influenzas? Completely overhaul poultry production on a global scale. Make farms self-sufficient in rearing eggs and chicks instead of exporting them internationally. The trend towards megafarms containing over a million birds must be stopped in its tracks.

To prevent the worst outcomes for this virus, we must revisit its primary source: the incubator of intensive poultry farms.

Diana Bell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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This is the biggest money mistake you’re making during travel

A retail expert talks of some common money mistakes travelers make on their trips.

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Travel is expensive. Despite the explosion of travel demand in the two years since the world opened up from the pandemic, survey after survey shows that financial reasons are the biggest factor keeping some from taking their desired trips.

Airfare, accommodation as well as food and entertainment during the trip have all outpaced inflation over the last four years.

Related: This is why we're still spending an insane amount of money on travel

But while there are multiple tricks and “travel hacks” for finding cheaper plane tickets and accommodation, the biggest financial mistake that leads to blown travel budgets is much smaller and more insidious.

A traveler watches a plane takeoff at an airport gate.

Jeshoots on Unsplash

This is what you should (and shouldn’t) spend your money on while abroad

“When it comes to traveling, it's hard to resist buying items so you can have a piece of that memory at home,” Kristen Gall, a retail expert who heads the financial planning section at points-back platform Rakuten, told Travel + Leisure in an interview. “However, it's important to remember that you don't need every souvenir that catches your eye.”

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According to Gall, souvenirs not only have a tendency to add up in price but also weight which can in turn require one to pay for extra weight or even another suitcase at the airport — over the last two months, airlines like Delta  (DAL) , American Airlines  (AAL)  and JetBlue Airways  (JBLU)  have all followed each other in increasing baggage prices to in some cases as much as $60 for a first bag and $100 for a second one.

While such extras may not seem like a lot compared to the thousands one might have spent on the hotel and ticket, they all have what is sometimes known as a “coffee” or “takeout effect” in which small expenses can lead one to overspend by a large amount.

‘Save up for one special thing rather than a bunch of trinkets…’

“When traveling abroad, I recommend only purchasing items that you can't get back at home, or that are small enough to not impact your luggage weight,” Gall said. “If you’re set on bringing home a souvenir, save up for one special thing, rather than wasting your money on a bunch of trinkets you may not think twice about once you return home.”

Along with the immediate costs, there is also the risk of purchasing things that go to waste when returning home from an international vacation. Alcohol is subject to airlines’ liquid rules while certain types of foods, particularly meat and other animal products, can be confiscated by customs. 

While one incident of losing an expensive bottle of liquor or cheese brought back from a country like France will often make travelers forever careful, those who travel internationally less frequently will often be unaware of specific rules and be forced to part with something they spent money on at the airport.

“It's important to keep in mind that you're going to have to travel back with everything you purchased,” Gall continued. “[…] Be careful when buying food or wine, as it may not make it through customs. Foods like chocolate are typically fine, but items like meat and produce are likely prohibited to come back into the country.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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