Fed Announes Hawkish 25bps Rate Hike, Signals Hikes At Every 2022 Meeting As Bullard Dissents A little background: By now, enough has been...
The US dollar index (DXY) has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few months. It is trading at $98.90, which is the highest...
FOMC Preview: The First Rate Hike Since 2018 Central banks face a challenging trade-off: do they react to the labor market close to full employment...
Pozsar's "Margin Call Doom Loop" Prediction Comes True As Trafigura Faces Billions In Margin Calls While there have been occasional stories...
The Bond Market Is Screaming Stagflation By DataTrek Research Topic #1: Market-based expectations for future US inflation have broken out...
"Suffocating" Impact From Higher Rates Will Force The Fed To Ease Much Sooner Than Expected Back in December, when we first showed that the...
A Preview Of The Crazy Week Ahead Here is just a sample of the events on deck this week: a Fed rate hike, a Russian default,...
Overview: While the World Health Organization debates about downgrading Covid from a pandemic, the rise China and Hong Kong cases is striking. A lockdown...
There are some serious divergences in Asian equity markets this morning as China concerns buffet some markets, while others rise on lower oil and Ukraine...
Monday’s these days usually present a confusing picture to investors, and this one is no different. Reuters is reporting that both Ukraine and Russia...
Benchmark revisions have visited the BLS JOLTS survey, too. And yes, they’ve been smoothed. To that end, the hawkishly-watched Job Openings (JO) trend...
Rate hikes expected as inflation keeps rising It’s been another volatile week in financial markets with events in and around Ukraine continuing to dominate....
Global equities fell by almost three percent in February (MSCI AC World index in US dollar terms) as investor alarm over the prospect of faster-than-expected...
Another Funding Indicator Is Flashing Red It's not just the recent blowout in the FRA-OIS funding spread that is hinting at some major funding/liquidity...
One of the most significant market responses to Russia's attack on Ukraine is in the expectations for the trajectory of monetary policy in many of the...
Most people have the impression that these various payroll and employment reports just go into the raw data and count up the number of payrolls and...
Overview: The capital and commodity markets are becoming less orderly. The scramble for dollars is pressuring the cross-currency basis swaps. Volatility...
Bullard Says Fed Must Follow Through With "Rapid Withdrawal Of Accommodation" Or Risk Losing Credibility One day after markets freaked out...
The more things change, the more things stay the same. That harsh reality was dished out in spades to markets trying to price in “Peak Ukraine”...
Russia's invasion of Ukraine was well tipped by US intelligence. Its warning that an attack could take place at any time on February 11 turning the simmering...
The labor theory of inflation, the one the FOMC will use to justify rate hikes in 2022 (as far as they might go), isn’t just wages...
Could Geopolitical Risk Sideline The Fed? Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, “Geopolitical Risk” could well be...
Volatility jumped this week as geopolitics dominated world headlines. Investors are looking to past crises to assess the likely duration of the large market...
"Geopolitical Risk" could well be a reason for the Fed to slow-roll tightening monetary policy in March. With Russia invading Ukraine, such would not be...
What’s the latest thinking in fiscal and monetary policy? The Hutchins Roundup keeps you informed of the latest research, charts, and speeches. Want...
Now it’s the Russian’s fault. Belligerence surrounding Donbas and Ukraine, raw materials and energy supplies to Europe threatened by Putin’s coiled...
Services Sector Leads Feb Rebound In PMIs As Omicron Fears Abate After unexpectedly plunging in January (accelerating a multi-month downtrend...
Putin recognises breakaway regions The clutching at straws rally we saw in Asian and early European hours yesterday quickly came to an end as Russian President...
Futures Tumble After Deadly Escalation In Ukraine Crisis Any hope of de-escalation following the news late last night that Putin and Biden...
(Due an extended business trip, this weekend’s commentary has been consolidated into one note) There are a few main themes in the driving the foreign...