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Survey: Post-2020 Financial Mindsets

A new report from Personal Capital and Empower Retirement, titled, “Survey: Post-2020 Financial Mindsets.” It relates to President Biden’s new post in the White House. Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The global pandemic, a highly…

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personal capital Financial 2020

A new report from Personal Capital and Empower Retirement, titled, “Survey: Post-2020 Financial Mindsets.” It relates to President Biden’s new post in the White House.

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Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The global pandemic, a highly polarizing election, and social unrest all made 2020 an unprecedented year with profound and far-reaching impacts. One significant consequence is how working Americans are changing their approach to financial planning.

Following the tumult of 2020, Americans are seeking a sense of security. Financial confidence is top of mind: 83% of people we recently surveyed said they want to worry less about money in 2021. It’s a worthy goal, but many of the same people report feeling uneasy about the economy this year.

Here’s what we uncovered in “Back to (Financial) Basics: How Americans are responding after an unprecedented 2020” a survey conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Empower Retirement and Personal Capital:

  • 51% of people told us they are more concerned about the economy than they were a year ago
  • More than a quarter (33%) are now more concerned about their ability to retire
  • Almost half (43%) are more worried about their financial future
  • 60% of people said that their finances were top of mind when casting their vote for president

It’s worth noting the great divide in the pandemic’s financial impact. Some people have realized a boon to their investments, whereas millions of others lost their very livelihood.

COVID-19 impacted every person in different and often exhaustive ways,” said Craig Birk, CFP, Chief Investment Officer at Personal Capital. “So many families suffered loss, hundreds of thousands of small businesses closed and millions of jobs vanished. For others, working remotely has had positive aspects.”

There’s much that remains uncertain. With a new presidential administration now in office, here’s how working Americans are feeling about their financial futures going into 2021.

How Finances Impacted Americans’ Vote

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Yesterday, Joe Biden was sworn into office as the 46th President of the United States. The 2020 Presidential election was a highly anticipated and hotly contested event, with many investors believing that the outcome would have a major impact on their personal finances, and on major issues important to their financial lives.

Late last year, 75% of Americans we surveyed told us that they believe the outcome of the presidential election will have an impact on their finances going forward.

Money was a major factor in how people cast their ballots. Gen X, at 68%, was the age group most likely to say that their financial situation was one of the most important factors in their vote.

In some key areas, men and women took different approaches to financial planning around the election. Men were more likely than women to vote according to their finances and also make money changes as a result of the outcome.

 personal capital

When it comes to saving and investing, Personal Capital advisors recommend staying the course — particularly in polarizing and volatile times.

“Transitions in leadership from elections can be emotionally charged for people,” Birk said. “Many individuals tend to feel the world will come crashing down if the opposition has won. But in terms of the economy and markets, the reality is little tends to change. Regardless of which party wins, equity returns tend to be positive in both the election year and first year in office. These days, both parties tend to run large deficits.”

Read More: How Presidential Elections Historically Impact the Stock Market

2020 Volatility Led to Big Financial Actions

Throughout last year, market volatility caused many people to take big action when it comes to their finances.

Emphasis on Savings

Financial 2020

In response to the turmoil of 2020, Americans decided to build up a cash cushion, with 70% reporting that they have or plan to put more money into savings. Gen Z respondents, at 83%, were the most likely to beef up their savings. Boomers, at 58%, were least likely.

Because money is one of the most significant sources of stress for many Americans, having funds set aside in savings can create the peace of mind necessary to reduce financial stress.

Birk advises automating your savings. He recommends setting up automatic transfers from your checking account to your retirement savings accounts, such as a 401k or IRA, in addition to your savings account. You won’t have to think about it, and it will take extra work on your part not to save because you’ll have to cancel the transfer manually.

Changes in Investment Strategy

Going into 2021, investors are cautiously hopeful. However, women are much less optimistic than men about the trajectory of the stock market: Just 16% of women say they are more optimistic about the stock market than they were last year, compared to 26% of men.

Current sentiments aside, last year many Americans reacted strongly to market volatility:

  • 45% have or plan to buy investments as a result of the market volatility related to COVID-19
  • 38% were spooked by the turbulence and report shifting to less risky investments
  • 35% sold investments to cash out

Feeling exposed? Diversifying your portfolio can reduce the inherent risks involved with investing. With well-diversified assets, your portfolio will be more able to weather financial storms like market volatility and recessions.

“Regardless of market conditions, diversification is key,” Birk said. “It’s one of the best ways your portfolio can cushion itself against bumpiness in the markets and it helps you stay comfortable sticking with a plan.”

Shifts in Retirement Planning

2020 volatility also caused many Americans to rethink their retirement plans:

  • 44% adjusted retirement plan investments
  • 39% adjusted their retirement plan time horizon

For most people, retirement is the single biggest financial goal that they’ll save for. It often takes decades to financially prepare for retirement. However, studies show that the majority of Americans aren’t adequately saving. Even more alarming is that nearly 33% of Americans pulled money from an IRA or 401k during the pandemic to cover basic expenses.

“There is a retirement crisis in America,” Birk said. “Many people are falling below their savings potential. But the good news is, for many, it’s not too late to turn things around. Save early, often, and aggressively.”

Financial Advice Gains Priority in 2021

Financial 2020

One way to worry less about money? Many people are opting to work with a certified financial planner. 52% of respondents agreed that after all the uncertainty of 2020, they are seeking more guidance on their financial strategy this year. This includes consulting a financial advisor, either for the first time or more often, or also taking advantage of workplace resources.

Younger respondents are far more likely to pursue advice: 64% of Millennials and Gen Z respondents plan to seek more guidance, whereas only 38% of Boomers said they are asking for more help.

One of the most important things a good financial advisor does is help remove emotions from financial decisions. When a person has worked for years to amass personal wealth, only to see it fluctuate during market volatility, emotional detachment doesn’t always come easily. That’s why having a trusted advisor to help is so vital.

“It’s sometimes hard to tune out all the noise of people telling you what the market is going to do next and what you should be buying or selling,” Birk said. “Working with a good financial advisor will give you an objective person to call when you’re scared or not sure what to do.”

The post Survey: Post-2020 Financial Mindsets appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Analyst reviews Apple stock price target amid challenges

Here’s what could happen to Apple shares next.

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They said it was bound to happen.

It was Jan. 11, 2024 when software giant Microsoft  (MSFT)  briefly passed Apple  (AAPL)  as the most valuable company in the world.

Microsoft's stock closed 0.5% higher, giving it a market valuation of $2.859 trillion. 

It rose as much as 2% during the session and the company was briefly worth $2.903 trillion. Apple closed 0.3% lower, giving the company a market capitalization of $2.886 trillion. 

"It was inevitable that Microsoft would overtake Apple since Microsoft is growing faster and has more to benefit from the generative AI revolution," D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said at the time, according to Reuters.

The two tech titans have jostled for top spot over the years and Microsoft was ahead at last check, with a market cap of $3.085 trillion, compared with Apple's value of $2.684 trillion.

Analysts noted that Apple had been dealing with weakening demand, including for the iPhone, the company’s main source of revenue. 

Demand in China, a major market, has slumped as the country's economy makes a slow recovery from the pandemic and competition from Huawei.

Sales in China of Apple's iPhone fell by 24% in the first six weeks of 2024 compared with a year earlier, according to research firm Counterpoint, as the company contended with stiff competition from a resurgent Huawei "while getting squeezed in the middle on aggressive pricing from the likes of OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi," said senior Analyst Mengmeng Zhang.

“Although the iPhone 15 is a great device, it has no significant upgrades from the previous version, so consumers feel fine holding on to the older-generation iPhones for now," he said.

A man scrolling through Netflix on an Apple iPad Pro. Photo by Phil Barker/Future Publishing via Getty Images.

Future Publishing/Getty Images

Big plans for China

Counterpoint said that the first six weeks of 2023 saw abnormally high numbers with significant unit sales being deferred from December 2022 due to production issues.

Apple is planning to open its eighth store in Shanghai – and its 47th across China – on March 21.

Related: Tech News Now: OpenAI says Musk contract 'never existed', Xiaomi's EV, and more

The company also plans to expand its research centre in Shanghai to support all of its product lines and open a new lab in southern tech hub Shenzhen later this year, according to the South China Morning Post.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, Apple announced changes to comply with the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which went into effect last week, Reuters reported on March 12.

Beginning this spring, software developers operating in Europe will be able to distribute apps to EU customers directly from their own websites instead of through the App Store.

"To reflect the DMA’s changes, users in the EU can install apps from alternative app marketplaces in iOS 17.4 and later," Apple said on its website, referring to the software platform that runs iPhones and iPads. 

"Users will be able to download an alternative marketplace app from the marketplace developer’s website," the company said.

Apple has also said it will appeal a $2 billion EU antitrust fine for thwarting competition from Spotify  (SPOT)  and other music streaming rivals via restrictions on the App Store.

The company's shares have suffered amid all this upheaval, but some analysts still see good things in Apple's future.

Bank of America Securities confirmed its positive stance on Apple, maintaining a buy rating with a steady price target of $225, according to Investing.com

The firm's analysis highlighted Apple's pricing strategy evolution since the introduction of the first iPhone in 2007, with initial prices set at $499 for the 4GB model and $599 for the 8GB model.

BofA said that Apple has consistently launched new iPhone models, including the Pro/Pro Max versions, to target the premium market. 

Analyst says Apple selloff 'overdone'

Concurrently, prices for previous models are typically reduced by about $100 with each new release. 

This strategy, coupled with installment plans from Apple and carriers, has contributed to the iPhone's installed base reaching a record 1.2 billion in 2023, the firm said.

More Tech Stocks:

Apple has effectively shifted its sales mix toward higher-value units despite experiencing slower unit sales, BofA said.

This trend is expected to persist and could help mitigate potential unit sales weaknesses, particularly in China. 

BofA also noted Apple's dominance in the high-end market, maintaining a market share of over 90% in the $1,000 and above price band for the past three years.

The firm also cited the anticipation of a multi-year iPhone cycle propelled by next-generation AI technology, robust services growth, and the potential for margin expansion.

On Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said they believed that the sell-off in the iPhone maker’s shares may be “overdone.”

The firm said that investors' growing preference for AI-focused stocks like Nvidia  (NVDA)  has led to a reallocation of funds away from Apple. 

In addition, Evercore said concerns over weakening demand in China, where Apple may be losing market share in the smartphone segment, have affected investor sentiment.

And then ongoing regulatory issues continue to have an impact on investor confidence in the world's second-biggest company.

“We think the sell-off is rather overdone, while we suspect there is strong valuation support at current levels to down 10%, there are three distinct drivers that could unlock upside on the stock from here – a) Cap allocation, b) AI inferencing, and c) Risk-off/defensive shift," the firm said in a research note.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Major typhoid fever surveillance study in sub-Saharan Africa indicates need for the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines in endemic countries

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high…

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There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

Credit: IVI

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

 

The findings from this 4-year study, the Severe Typhoid in Africa (SETA) program, offers new typhoid fever burden estimates from six countries: Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, and Nigeria, with four countries recording more than 100 cases for every 100,000 person-years of observation, which is considered a high burden. The highest incidence of typhoid was found in DRC with 315 cases per 100,000 people while children between 2-14 years of age were shown to be at highest risk across all 25 study sites.

 

There are an estimated 12.5 to 16.3 million cases of typhoid every year with 140,000 deaths. However, with generic symptoms such as fever, fatigue, and abdominal pain, and the need for blood culture sampling to make a definitive diagnosis, it is difficult for governments to capture the true burden of typhoid in their countries.

 

“Our goal through SETA was to address these gaps in typhoid disease burden data,” said lead author Dr. Florian Marks, Deputy Director General of the International Vaccine Institute (IVI). “Our estimates indicate that introduction of TCV in endemic settings would go to lengths in protecting communities, especially school-aged children, against this potentially deadly—but preventable—disease.”

 

In addition to disease incidence, this study also showed that the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Salmonella Typhi, the bacteria that causes typhoid fever, has led to more reliance beyond the traditional first line of antibiotic treatment. If left untreated, severe cases of the disease can lead to intestinal perforation and even death. This suggests that prevention through vaccination may play a critical role in not only protecting against typhoid fever but reducing the spread of drug-resistant strains of the bacteria.

 

There are two TCVs prequalified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and available through Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. In February 2024, IVI and SK bioscience announced that a third TCV, SKYTyphoid™, also achieved WHO PQ, paving the way for public procurement and increasing the global supply.

 

Alongside the SETA disease burden study, IVI has been working with colleagues in three African countries to show the real-world impact of TCV vaccination. These studies include a cluster-randomized trial in Agogo, Ghana and two effectiveness studies following mass vaccination in Kisantu, DRC and Imerintsiatosika, Madagascar.

 

Dr. Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Associate Director General at IVI and Head of the Real-World Evidence Department, explains, “Through these vaccine effectiveness studies, we aim to show the full public health value of TCV in settings that are directly impacted by a high burden of typhoid fever.” He adds, “Our final objective of course is to eliminate typhoid or to at least reduce the burden to low incidence levels, and that’s what we are attempting in Fiji with an island-wide vaccination campaign.”

 

As more countries in typhoid endemic countries, namely in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, consider TCV in national immunization programs, these data will help inform evidence-based policy decisions around typhoid prevention and control.

 

###

 

About the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)
The International Vaccine Institute (IVI) is a non-profit international organization established in 1997 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Programme with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health.

IVI’s current portfolio includes vaccines at all stages of pre-clinical and clinical development for infectious diseases that disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, such as cholera, typhoid, chikungunya, shigella, salmonella, schistosomiasis, hepatitis E, HPV, COVID-19, and more. IVI developed the world’s first low-cost oral cholera vaccine, pre-qualified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and developed a new-generation typhoid conjugate vaccine that is recently pre-qualified by WHO.

IVI is headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea with a Europe Regional Office in Sweden, a Country Office in Austria, and Collaborating Centers in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. 39 countries and the WHO are members of IVI, and the governments of the Republic of Korea, Sweden, India, Finland, and Thailand provide state funding. For more information, please visit https://www.ivi.int.

 

CONTACT

Aerie Em, Global Communications & Advocacy Manager
+82 2 881 1386 | aerie.em@ivi.int


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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC’s…

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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever... And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC's Brian Sullivan took a horse dose of Red Pills when, about six months after our readers, he learned that the US is issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, which prompted him to rage tweet, (or rageX, not sure what the proper term is here) the following:

We’ve added 60% to national debt since 2018. Germany - a country with major economic woes - added ‘just’ 32%.   

Maybe it will never matter.   Maybe MMT is real.   Maybe we just cancel or inflate it out. Maybe career real estate borrowers or career politicians aren’t the answer.

I have no idea.  Only time will tell.   But it’s going to be fascinating to watch it play out.

He is right: it will be fascinating, and the latest budget deficit data simply confirmed that the day of reckoning will come very soon, certainly sooner than the two years that One River's Eric Peters predicted this weekend for the coming "US debt sustainability crisis."

According to the US Treasury, in February, the US collected $271 billion in various tax receipts, and spent $567 billion, more than double what it collected.

The two charts below show the divergence in US tax receipts which have flatlined (on a trailing 6M basis) since the covid pandemic in 2020 (with occasional stimmy-driven surges)...

... and spending which is about 50% higher compared to where it was in 2020.

The end result is that in February, the budget deficit rose to $296.3 billion, up 12.9% from a year prior, and the second highest February deficit on record.

And the punchline: on a cumulative basis, the budget deficit in fiscal 2024 which began on October 1, 2023 is now $828 billion, the second largest cumulative deficit through February on record, surpassed only by the peak covid year of 2021.

But wait there's more: because in a world where the US is spending more than twice what it is collecting, the endgame is clear: debt collapse, and while it won't be tomorrow, or the week after, it is coming... and it's also why the US is now selling $1 trillion in debt every 100 days just to keep operating (and absorbing all those millions of illegal immigrants who will keep voting democrat to preserve the socialist system of the US, so beloved by the Soros clan).

And it gets even worse, because we are now in the ponzi finance stage of the Minsky cycle, with total interest on the debt annualizing well above $1 trillion, and rising every day

... having already surpassed total US defense spending and soon to surpass total health spending and, finally all social security spending, the largest spending category of all, which means that US debt will now rise exponentially higher until the inevitable moment when the US dollar loses its reserve status and it all comes crashing down.

We conclude with another observation by CNBC's Brian Sullivan, who quotes an email by a DC strategist...

.. which lays out the proposed Biden budget as follows:

The budget deficit will growth another $16 TRILLION over next 10 years. Thats *with* the proposed massive tax hikes.

Without them the deficit will grow $19 trillion.

That's why you will hear the "deficit is being reduced by $3 trillion" over the decade.

No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math.

Of course, in the long run, neither can the US... and since neither party will ever cut the spending which everyone by now is so addicted to, the best anyone can do is start planning for the endgame.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/12/2024 - 18:40

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