Stock Market Crashes: Will the Bubble Pop in 2022?
Stock Market Crashes: Key Takeaways Many market bubbles have turned into widespread crashes — study the past! Are we in a stock market bubble? Learn the signs now. Penny stock supernovas are like mini stock market bubbles — check out these charts……
The market’s driven by supply and demand. Demand for assets drives prices higher, and more supply means lower prices.
When overexuberant and speculative buyers create a massive wave of demand, prices can soar.
That creates a stock market bubble.
In a bubble, investors don’t buy stocks based on income, earnings, or growth — they buy on speculation that future prices will increase.
And it often means traders or investors overpay for assets.
When Was the Last Stock Market Crash?
The most recent market crash was in March 2020. COVID-19 shut down many parts of the world. Uncertainty spooked investors, creating a mass sell-off.
But the markets quickly recovered. Many new traders and investors saw the crash as an opportunity to enter the market at discount prices…
And many people were at home due to lockdowns with plenty of time on their hands, plus extra cash thanks to government-issued stimulus checks.
Combine that with new trading apps like Robinhood and multiple major brokerages going commission-free, and you have a lot of new buyers.
Free trading apps make trading and investing like a game. And people can do it right on their smartphones
Some brokers even offer fractional shares — which allows even more buyers into the market with less money. In 2020, the wave of new buyers led to all the major indexes hitting new all-time highs. The volume and volatility were great for prepared traders.
Once buyers bid prices up high enough, fewer buyers are willing to pay those prices.
Without buyers, assets crash.
And once investors start to take profits, declining prices can trigger margin calls and forced selling. Sometimes a black swan event can cause a market crash — like the one that caused the 2020 crash.
There’s a psychological reason for market bubbles and crashes. Never underestimate the power of…
Herd Mentality
A stock market bubble is like a penny stock supernova. Buyers believe the hype. They follow ‘guru’ trades and tips on buying stocks instead of trading patterns and using a rule-based strategy.
Continued market highs can give traders a sense of euphoria and FOMO. So they keep buying, believing there’s no better time than now to buy.
Herd mentality can also create crashes. Once prices decline, mass panic can set in and sellers start chasing lows to get out.
Stock market bubbles eventually pop — and they can have devastating consequences…
Steep Drop in Prices and Major Losses
A stock market crash leaves many investors with losses. Sadly, it’s usually the least-educated investors who buy at the top that end up with the biggest losses.
Most people who bought late won’t sell when the market starts to correct. They wait until the market tanks further. That only adds more fuel to the sell-off.
It’s why I prefer to trade instead of invest. I never recommend anyone hold and hope. My rule #1 is to cut losses quickly. If you follow trading rules, it can help protect you from huge losses.
I trade safely and expect the worst from every stock and every company.
Market Crashes Can Cause a Recession or Depression
The biggest stock market crashes in history led to a recession or depression.
It happens when the poor monetary policy that started the bubble dries up. Or when people lose their life savings, which can lead to them losing their homes or other assets.
Market crashes can affect more than just stock prices.
The losses can ripple through the economy and affect consumer confidence and jobs. Sometimes a full economic recovery can take years or even decades.
Stock Market Bubble 2022: Will the Stock Market Crash?
There’s a lot of talk about a market crash right now. There are so many overextended markets — housing, oil, the stock market.
Cryptocurrencies had a massive run too, followed by a big crash.
Does that mean the stock market will crash in 2022?
I don’t play guessing games. But I’ve seen overextended markets, hype, and exuberance before. And stock market bubble indicators from the past can give you an idea of the future.
Here are some examples…
Stock Market Bubble Indicators
One stock market bubble indicator is an increase in initial public offerings (IPOs). Companies want to take advantage of the market highs and exposure to investors at inflated prices.
Some of these companies may even be scams and not live up to the hype they play up to enter the market.
High speculation can be another indicator. Investors enter the market speculating that economic or technological changes can increase a stock’s value in the future. Speculators think they’re getting in early…
It’s reminiscent of a penny stock pump. Penny stock ‘investors’ think they’re buying the next Microsoft or Pfizer.
Look at these examples of penny stock supernovas. They’re like a stock market bubble on a smaller scale.
HUMBL, Inc. (OTCPK: HMBL)
HMBL rode a huge wave of hype in 2020 and 2021. Before it changed its ticker to HMBL, it traded under the ticker TNSP. It went supernova more than once. I made over $130,000 in profits on my TSNP trades. See my HMBL trades here.
Here’s what a bubble and crash look like:
HMBL chart: 1 year, daily candle — courtesy of StocksToTrade.com
Notice what happens when the hype and exuberance fade? The stock goes back where it started, volume fades, and nobody cares.
OTCs aren’t the only stocks that can go full supernova. Listed stocks can run on hype too. Check out this huge spiker…
Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC)
DWAC was a massive supernova. It’s a SPAC linked to former President Donald Trump. And once news spread that he was bringing a social media company public through a merger, the stock soared.
The next day more buyers came in and pushed it even higher. In two days the stock went from roughly $13 to $175. Investors thought they were buying the next Twitter.
But once all the buyers were in, they wanted to take profits. And short sellers started pressuring it.
This is what mass hysteria looks like. Check out this chart:
DWAC chart: 6-month, daily candle — courtesy of StocksToTrade.com
If a stock’s up 10–20 times in a short time, it’s likely a bubble. It’s great to take advantage of these moves on the way up. But don’t hold and hope when a trade goes against you.
If you’re missing out on supernovas like these, apply to join my Trading Challenge today. My students and I take advantage of moves like this on the way up and the way down.
Now compare those charts to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) five-year chart. Since March 2020, it’s climbed higher and faster than prior years:
SPY chart: 5-year, daily candle — courtesy of StocksToTrade.com
Are We in a Stock Market Bubble?
When you’re in a stock market bubble, the whole country gets involved. It’s mass hysteria.
I’ve seen a lot of market bubble indicators over the last two years. Have we reached mass hysteria? I don’t know. Stocks can always go higher than you think.
But I’m looking for any signs of topping — failed breakouts, support levels breaking, and lower highs.
If you haven’t seen market bubbles or penny stock supernovas, you haven’t studied. There are plenty of past examples you can learn from…
Learn From Stock Market Bubbles and Crashes in History
History doesn’t repeat exactly, but it does rhyme. And there are plenty of big stock market bubbles from history you can study…
During the South Sea stock bubble, people used to crash their horse carts in front of the guy in charge of the stock. Then they’d fake injuries to try to get some stock out of him.
In the big tulip bulb bubble in the 1600s, tulip bulb prices were bid up by speculation and hype. Some became worth as much as a large home. But after three years they were only worth the value of the flower.
This is why education, discipline, and patience matter when you trade. You need to resist chasing stocks and hype. Think you missed an opportunity? Use that to learn and study so you can catch the next one.
Frequently Asked Questions About Stock Market Bubbles
Let’s go over some frequently asked questions about stock market bubbles and how to trade them…
What Goes Up When the Stock Market Crashes?
When the markets go down, investors usually look for somewhere “safe” to put their capital, like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds. Stocks of companies that make consumer staples can even go up as markets crash. People still need essentials to live, even during a crash.
What Happens When a Stock Price Goes to Zero?
Usually, before a stock reaches zero, it’s delisted from major exchanges and trades on the OTC markets. It might find interested investors there. But when a stock price goes to zero it’s worthless and there’s little chance of the company surviving.
When Will the Next Stock Market Bubble Burst?
Nobody can predict the future. I prefer to react to the market. We don’t know when it will end, but we do know the markets can’t go straight up forever. Study the past and be ready to react when the time is right.
The markets constantly change. There are bear markets, bull markets, corrections, and market bubbles. You have to adapt to learn to trade through it all.
I don’t invest and hold long term. But I still watch the major markets, because three out of four stocks follow the market. Preparation is key so you can be ready to take advantage of any trading opportunity.
It might mean you have to switch up your strategies. I’m considering short selling if the market crashes in 2022. I opened a new account to prepare. Get bonuses when you open an account here.
For the ultimate trading education — apply for my Trading Challenge. It doesn’t matter if the market’s making new highs or crashing. We find the best penny stocks to trade and take advantage of repeating patterns.
Will we see the market crash in 2022? Let me know what you think in a comment below!
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and former Minnesota governor and professional wrestler Jesse Ventura are among the potential running mates for independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the New York Times reported on March 12.
Citing “two people familiar with the discussions,” the New York Times wrote that Mr. Kennedy “recently approached” Mr. Rodgers and Mr. Ventura about the vice president’s role, “and both have welcomed the overtures.”
Mr. Kennedy has talked to Mr. Rodgers “pretty continuously” over the last month, according to the story. The candidate has kept in touch with Mr. Ventura since the former governor introduced him at a February voter rally in Tucson, Arizona.
Stefanie Spear, who is the campaign press secretary, told The Epoch Times on March 12 that “Mr. Kennedy did share with the New York Times that he’s considering Aaron Rodgers and Jesse Ventura as running mates along with others on a short list.”
Ms. Spear added that Mr. Kennedy will name his running mate in the upcoming weeks.
Former Democrat presidential candidates Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard declined the opportunity to join Mr. Kennedy’s ticket, according to the New York Times.
Mr. Kennedy has also reportedly talked to Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) about becoming his running mate.
Last week, Mr. Kennedy endorsed Mr. Paul to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as the Senate Minority Leader after Mr. McConnell announced he would step down from the post at the end of the year.
CNN reported early on March 13 that Mr. Kennedy’s shortlist also includes motivational speaker Tony Robbins, Discovery Channel Host Mike Rowe, and civil rights attorney Tricia Lindsay. The Washington Post included the aforementioned names plus former Republican Massachusetts senator and U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, Scott Brown.
In April 2023, Mr. Kennedy entered the Democrat presidential primary to challenge President Joe Biden for the party’s 2024 nomination. Claiming that the Democrat National Committee was “rigging the primary” to stop candidates from opposing President Biden, Mr. Kennedy said last October that he would run as an independent.
This year, Mr. Kennedy’s campaign has shifted its focus to ballot access. He currently has qualified for the ballot as an independent in New Hampshire, Utah, and Nevada.
Mr. Kennedy also qualified for the ballot in Hawaii under the “We the People” party.
In January, Mr. Kennedy’s campaign said it had filed paperwork in six states to create a political party. The move was made to get his name on the ballots with fewer voter signatures than those states require for candidates not affiliated with a party.
The “We the People” party was established in five states: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Mississippi, and North Carolina. The “Texas Independent Party” was also formed.
A statement by Mr. Kennedy’s campaign reported that filing for political party status in the six states reduced the number of signatures required for him to gain ballot access by about 330,000.
Ballot access guidelines have created a sense of urgency to name a running mate. More than 20 states require independent and third-party candidates to have a vice presidential pick before collecting and submitting signatures.
Like Mr. Kennedy, Mr. Ventura is an outspoken critic of COVID-19 vaccine mandates and safety.
Mr. Ventura, 72, gained acclaim in the 1970s and 1980s as a professional wrestler known as Jesse “the Body” Ventura. He appeared in movies and television shows before entering the Minnesota gubernatorial race as a Reform Party headliner. He was a longshot candidate but prevailed and served one term.
Former pro wrestler Jesse Ventura in Washington on Oct. 4, 2013. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)
In an interview on a YouTube podcast last December, Mr. Ventura was asked if he would accept an offer to run on Mr. Kennedy’s ticket.
“I would give it serious consideration. I won’t tell you yes or no. It will depend on my personal life. Would I want to commit myself at 72 for one year of hell (campaigning) and then four years (in office)?” Mr. Ventura said with a grin.
Mr. Rodgers, who spent his entire career as a quarterback for the Green Bay Packers before joining the New York Jets last season, remains under contract with the Jets. He has not publicly commented about joining Mr. Kennedy’s ticket, but the four-time NFL MVP endorsed him earlier this year and has stumped for him on podcasts.
The 40-year-old Rodgers is still under contract with the Jets after tearing his Achilles tendon in the 2023 season opener and being sidelined the rest of the year. The Jets are owned by Woody Johnson, a prominent donor to former President Donald Trump who served as U.S. Ambassador to Britain under President Trump.
Since the COVID-19 vaccine was introduced, Mr. Rodgers has been outspoken about health issues that can result from taking the shot. He told podcaster Joe Rogan that he has lost friends and sponsorship deals because of his decision not to get vaccinated.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the New York Jets talks to reporters after training camp at Atlantic Health Jets Training Center in Florham Park, N.J., on July 26, 2023. (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
Earlier this year, Mr. Rodgers challenged Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and Dr. Anthony Fauci to a debate.
Mr. Rodgers referred to Mr. Kelce, who signed an endorsement deal with vaccine manufacturer Pfizer, as “Mr. Pfizer.”
Dr. Fauci served as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases from 1984 to 2022 and was chief medical adviser to the president from 2021 to 2022.
When Mr. Kennedy announces his running mate, it will mark another challenge met to help gain ballot access.
“In some states, the signature gathering window is not open. New York is one of those and is one of the most difficult with ballot access requirements,” Ms. Spear told The Epoch Times.
“We need our VP pick and our electors, and we have to gather 45,000 valid signatures. That means we will collect 72,000 since we have a 60 percent buffer in every state,” she added.
The window for gathering signatures in New York opens on April 16 and closes on May 28, Ms. Spear noted.
“Mississippi, North Carolina, and Oklahoma are the next three states we will most likely check off our list,” Ms. Spear added. “We are confident that Mr. Kennedy will be on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. We have a strategist, petitioners, attorneys, and the overall momentum of the campaign.”
The SNF Institute for Global Infectious Disease Research announces new advisory board
From identifying the influenza virus that caused the pandemic of 1918 to developing vaccines against pneumococcal pneumonia and bacterial meningitis in…
From identifying the influenza virus that caused the pandemic of 1918 to developing vaccines against pneumococcal pneumonia and bacterial meningitis in the 1970s, combating infectious disease has a rich history at Rockefeller. That tradition continues as the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Institute for Global Infectious Disease Research at Rockefeller University (SNFiRU) caps a successful first year with the establishment of a new advisory board.
Credit: Lori Chertoff/The Rockefeller University
From identifying the influenza virus that caused the pandemic of 1918 to developing vaccines against pneumococcal pneumonia and bacterial meningitis in the 1970s, combating infectious disease has a rich history at Rockefeller. That tradition continues as the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Institute for Global Infectious Disease Research at Rockefeller University (SNFiRU) caps a successful first year with the establishment of a new advisory board.
This international advisory board was created in part to give guidance on how to best use SNFiRU’s resources, as well as bring forward innovative ideas concerning new avenues of research, public education, community engagement, and partnership projects.
SNFiRU was established to strengthen readiness for and response to future health crises, building on the scientific advances and international collaborations forged in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Launched with a $75 million grant from the Stavros Niarchos Foundation (SNF) as part of its Global Health Initiative (GHI), the institute provides a framework for international scientific collaboration to foster research innovations and turn them into practical health benefits.
SNFiRU’s mission is to better understand the agents that cause infectious disease and to lower barriers to treatment and prevention globally. To speed this work, the institute launched numerous initiatives in its inaugural year. For instance, SNFiRU awarded 31 research projects in 29 different Rockefeller laboratories for over $5 million to help get collaborative new research efforts off the ground. SNFiRU also supports the Rockefeller University Hospital, where clinical studies are conducted, and brought on board its first physician-scientist through Rockefeller’s Clinical Scholars program. “One of the surprises was the scope of interest from Rockefeller scientists in using their talents to tackle important infectious disease problems,” says Charles M. Rice, Maurice R. and Corinne P. Greenberg Professor in Virology at Rockefeller and director of SNFiRU. “The research topics range from the biology of infectious agents to the dynamics of the immune response to pathogens, and also include a number of infectious disease-adjacent studies.”
In the past 12 months, SNFiRU often brought together scientists studying different aspects of infectious disease as a way to spur new collaborations. In addition to hosting its first annual day-long symposium, SNFiRU initiated a Young Scientist Forum for students and post-doctoral fellows to meet regularly, facilitating cross-laboratory thinking. A bimonthly seminar series has also been established on campus.
Another aim of SNFiRU is to develop relationships with community-based organizations, as well as design and participate in community-engaged research, with a focus on low-income and minority communities. To that end, SNFiRU is helping develop a research project on Chagas disease, a tropical parasitic infection prevalent in Latin America that can cause congestive heart failure and gastrointestinal complications if left untreated. The project will bring together clinicians practicing at health centers in New York, Florida, Texas, and California and basic scientists from multiple institutions to help the communities that are most impacted.
“The SNFiRU international advisory board convenes globally recognized leaders with distinguished biomedical expertise, unrivalled experience in pandemic preparedness and response, and a shared commitment to translating scientific advancements into equitably distributed benefits in real-world settings,” says SNF Co-President Andreas Dracopoulos. “The advisory board will advance the institute’s indispensable mission, which SNF is proud to support as a key part of our Global Health Initiative, and we look forward to seeing breakthroughs in the lab drive better outcomes in lives around the globe.”
The new advisory board will hold its first meeting on April 11th, 2024, following the second annual SNF Institute for Global Infectious Disease Research Symposium at Rockefeller.
Its members are: Rafi Ahmed of Emory University School of Medicine, Cori Bargmann of The Rockefeller University, Yasmin Belkaid of the Pasteur Institute, Anthony S. Fauci, the former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Peter Hotez of Baylor College of Medicine and Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, Esper Kallas of of the Butantan Institute, Sharon Lewin of the University of Melbourne Doherty Institue, Carl Nathan of Weill Cornell Medicine, Rino Rappuoli of Fondazione Biotecnopolo di Siena and University of Siena, and Herbert “Skip” Virgin of Washington University School of Medicine and UT Southwestern Medical Center.
Congress’ failure so far to deliver on promise of tens of billions in new research spending threatens America’s long-term economic competitiveness
A deal that avoided a shutdown also slashed spending for the National Science Foundation, putting it billions below a congressional target intended to…
Federal spending on fundamental scientific research is pivotal to America’s long-term economic competitiveness and growth. But less than two years after agreeing the U.S. needed to invest tens of billions of dollars more in basic research than it had been, Congress is already seriously scaling back its plans.
A package of funding bills recently passed by Congress and signed by President Joe Biden on March 9, 2024, cuts the current fiscal year budget for the National Science Foundation, America’s premier basic science research agency, by over 8% relative to last year. That puts the NSF’s current allocation US$6.6 billion below targets Congress set in 2022.
And the president’s budget blueprint for the next fiscal year, released on March 11, doesn’t look much better. Even assuming his request for the NSF is fully funded, it would still, based on my calculations, leave the agency a total of $15 billion behind the plan Congress laid out to help the U.S. keep up with countries such as China that are rapidly increasing their science budgets.
Our data shows how underfunding basic research, especially in high-priority areas, poses a real threat to the United States’ role as a leader in critical technology areas, forestalls innovation and makes it harder to recruit the skilled workers that high-tech companies need to succeed.
A promised investment
Less than two years ago, in August 2022, university researchers like me had reason to celebrate.
The CHIPS act authorized US$81 billion for the agency, promised to double its budget by 2027 and directed it to “address societal, national, and geostrategic challenges for the benefit of all Americans” by investing in research.
But there was one very big snag. The money still has to be appropriated by Congress every year. Lawmakers haven’t been good at doing that recently. As lawmakers struggle to keep the lights on, fundamental research is quickly becoming a casualty of political dysfunction.
Research’s critical impact
That’s bad because fundamental research matters in more ways than you might expect.
For instance, the basic discoveries that made the COVID-19 vaccine possible stretch back to the early 1960s. Such research investments contribute to the health, wealth and well-being of society, support jobs and regional economies and are vital to the U.S. economy and national security.
Lagging research investment will hurt U.S. leadership in critical technologies such as artificial intelligence, advanced communications, clean energy and biotechnology. Less support means less new research work gets done, fewer new researchers are trained and important new discoveries are made elsewhere.
Businesses nationwide thrive by selling the goods and services – everything from pipettes and biological specimens to notebooks and plane tickets – that are necessary for research. Those vendors include high-tech startups, manufacturers, contractors and even Main Street businesses like your local hardware store. They employ your neighbors and friends and contribute to the economic health of your hometown and the nation.
Nearly a third of the $10 billion in federal research funds that 26 of the universities in our consortium used in 2022 directly supported U.S. employers, including:
A Detroit welding shop that sells gases many labs use in experiments funded by the National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation, Department of Defense and Department of Energy.
A Dallas-based construction company that is building an advanced vaccine and drug development facility paid for by the Department of Health and Human Services.
More than a dozen Utah businesses, including surveyors, engineers and construction and trucking companies, working on a Department of Energy project to develop breakthroughs in geothermal energy.
When Congress shortchanges basic research, it also damages businesses like these and people you might not usually associate with academic science and engineering. Construction and manufacturing companies earn more than $2 billion each year from federally funded research done by our consortium’s members.
A lag or cut in federal research funding would harm U.S. competitiveness in critical advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and robotics.Hispanolistic/E+ via Getty Images
Jobs and innovation
Disrupting or decreasing research funding also slows the flow of STEM – science, technology, engineering and math – talent from universities to American businesses. Highly trained people are essential to corporate innovation and to U.S. leadership in key fields, such as AI, where companies depend on hiring to secure research expertise.
In 2022, federal research grants paid wages for about 122,500 people at universities that shared data with my institute. More than half of them were students or trainees. Our data shows that they go on to many types of jobs but are particularly important for leading tech companies such as Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Intel.
That same data lets me estimate that over 300,000 people who worked at U.S. universities in 2022 were paid by federal research funds. Threats to federal research investments put academic jobs at risk. They also hurt private sector innovation because even the most successful companies need to hire people with expert research skills. Most people learn those skills by working on university research projects, and most of those projects are federally funded.
High stakes
If Congress doesn’t move to fund fundamental science research to meet CHIPS and Science Act targets – and make up for the $11.6 billion it’s already behind schedule – the long-term consequences for American competitiveness could be serious.
Over time, companies would see fewer skilled job candidates, and academic and corporate researchers would produce fewer discoveries. Fewer high-tech startups would mean slower economic growth. America would become less competitive in the age of AI. This would turn one of the fears that led lawmakers to pass the CHIPS and Science Act into a reality.
Ultimately, it’s up to lawmakers to decide whether to fulfill their promise to invest more in the research that supports jobs across the economy and in American innovation, competitiveness and economic growth. So far, that promise is looking pretty fragile.
Jason Owen-Smith receives research support from the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and Wellcome Leap.
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