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States Experimenting – How Many Dollars Per COVID Death?

States Experimenting – How Many Dollars Per COVID Death?

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Covid-19 Experimenting GWU COVID-19 second wave coronavirus us

States Experimenting – How Many Dollars Per COVID Death? Risking a 200-Foot Sneeze, a Real 14-Foot Infection, and Inadequate Testing

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WASHINGTON, D.C. (MAY 4, 2020) - Although many in the media are suggesting that we will soon learn whether or not the loosening of travel restrictions in almost three dozen states will result in more COVID-19 deaths, that's not the issue nor the answer experts are really seeking, although these life-and-death experiments will raise real questions which are even more important, says public interest law professor John Banzhaf.

Loosing The Stay-At-Home Requirements

Virtually everyone, including those advocating for loosing the stay-at-home requirements, recognizes that reducing state restrictions will result in some increase in the spread of the coronavirus, and therefore a corresponding increase in the number of people with COVID-19 and the resulting deaths, because the virus is highly contagious.  Indeed, even if people do strictly maintain the recommended 6 feet of social distancing, the deadly virus will spread.

Despite conventional wisdom and medical advice that maintaining a separation of 6 feet is sufficient to prevent transmission of the coronavirus, reliable reports from a restaurant in China show that one infected diner was able - in a real life actual situation and not a model or projection - to transmit the virus, and the deadly COVID-19, to another diner some 4.5 meters [14.7 feet] away during the brief time it took to eat a meal.

Moreover, studies at MIT have shown that germs in a sneeze can travel some 200 feet, and another study suggests that a single passenger on an airplane with COVID-19 can infect more than a dozen other passengers several rows in front as well as behind him, despite the state-of-the-art HVAC systems on modern airplanes.

States Experimenting: How Much Will The Virus Spread?

The real question in these experiments in different states, says Banzhaf, is how much the virus will spread as each of separate restrictions is lifted or at least lessened, and in various states with different population densities and cultures.

Fortunately, our federal-state form of government should make it possible to obtain reasonably precise and granulated data on the effects quickly, says Banzhaf, who is also mathematician and game theorist, an engineer and inventor, a political scientist and public health activist, and a statistician and creator of the "Banzhaf Index."

Here the different states are able to act largely independently in their approach to the virus, in what Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandies called "Laboratories of Democracy," praising how under our federal-state form of government, a "state may, if its citizens choose, serve as a laboratory; and try novel social and economic experiments without risk to the rest of the country."

Any increase resulting from the changes in travel restrictions should show up quickly in hard reliable data, including the number of hospital admissions of confirmed COVID-19 cases, and the number of COVID-19 patients put on ventilators. Then we will probably see an increase in the number of COVID-19 deaths within a week or two; a lagging indicator because there is a lag in time between when COVID-19 patients first became infected, and when some of them die.

Handling COVID-19 Cases

Naturally we want to assure that the number of COVID-19 cases do not overwhelm the capacity of the local health care system to handle  the increased number of admissions - e.g., there should be enough isolation beds, ventilators, PPEs, etc. - and there must always be a margin or reserve since we never want hospitals to operate on the knife edge between just extremely busy and totally overwhelmed.

But, beyond that, what other limits are there, or should there be, on the increased number of COVID admissions and deaths resulting for a relaxation of a specific restriction?

As a counterbalancing factor, virtually everyone agrees the reducing the current severe restrictions on various activities will result in significant improvements in the local economy. Indeed, that's usually the major argument for taking these risks steps, since it arguably will let more people go back to work, have income, shop, enjoy services such as haircuts, pay bills, etc.

Fortunately, the amount of economic improvement, like the increase in medical problems, should also show up quickly in hard reliable data, including the number of people receiving unemployment compensation, sales tax and other revenue from businesses, etc., suggests Banzhaf.

But, assuming such data of medical harm and economic gain becomes available, and is generally accepted as reasonably reliable, how should governors weigh it in deciding how quickly, if at all, to relax restrictions?

Keeping The Virus Reproduction Rate Low

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo has stressed the need to keep the virus reproduction rate below a certain target.  But experts seemingly agree that the actual rate at which the virus is spreading will not be known with any degree of accuracy until there is far more widespread testing - something which most agree is unlikely to happen, and to yield reliable data, for many weeks, if then.

So, in the meantime, suggests Banzhaf, governors and other decision makers will simply have to decide how many deaths they are willing to accept in return for how many dollars of increased economic activity - two metrics which should be known reliably within days of each change in restrictions.  In starkest terms, how many dollars for how many deaths.

If, for example, the number of new increased deaths is quite  low, society might be willing to accept these deaths as the unfortunate cost of increasing the economic benefit to many people.  But, if the number of new increased deaths is high, we would be less willing to accept the loosening of restrictions; i.e. the dollar v. death balance would have tipped the other way.

That, after all, is the concept behind cost-benefit analysis; a system of analysis used by virtually every federal agency in trying to decide thousands of different issues ranging from how much testing should be required before a drug may be put on the market to which city intersections should be selected for new traffic lights.

Balancing Lives Against Dollars

But balancing lives against dollars - how many deaths per dollar are we willing to tolerate - also involves issues of moral philosophy, as to which there can be few final answers since the issues are not amenable to the scientific method and the finding of measurable facts.

Such a balance may also be complicated by another consideration.  While all lives are precious, and no person should lose his life unnecessarily, many would agree that the adverse impact on society is far greater if a young and otherwise healthy breadwinner with children is killed by the virus than if it shortens the life by only a year or two of an elderly person with no dependents and various ailments who would likely have died within a few years anyway.

A classic way of taking some of this into consideration is to look at and compare not simply the number of increased deaths caused by a medical threat (e.g. AIDS, lung cancer from smoking, COVID-19) but rather at the years of estimated years of life lost to each.  By this measure, AIDS might be more serious compared with smoking than previously thought, because most who died from AIDS were young, and most who died from smoking-causes lung cancer tended to be much older.

So, in deciding whether or not to continue to relax restrictions, or possibly even reimpose some for a period of time, governors should be looking at deaths (with metrics including hospital admissions, ventilator use, and death certificates) balanced against dollars (unemployment claims, reported tax revenues, etc.), and perhaps the life expectancy of those who are killed by the virus (e.g. opening beaches is more likely to kill more young people, while opening beauty salons may tend to kill more older patrons). suggests Banzhaf.

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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