Lots of people are trying to understand how to access unemployment insurance in CA. Now there are Fed dollars available starting 4/28 in California (known as “Pandemic Unemployment Assistance” or PUA). This is different from state unemployment insurance (UI) & is in many ways a weaker form of protection.
Understanding why is complicated, but important: Unemployment Insurance is an employer-funded program. Businesses pay insurance premiums into a state and federal fund to cover a portion of workers’ wages when they lose their job through no fault of their own (like with this COVID-19 pandemic). On Jan 1, 2020 AB5 went into effect. This law requires many gig companies to treat their workers like employees for the purpose of state Unemployment Insurance. Workers fought tirelessly to get this bill passed.
This means that companies like Uber & Lyft should be paying into the Unemployment Insurance fund AND gig workers who are out of work because of COVID-19 should have access to benefits like any other worker.
Federal vs state unemployment insurance
However, these companies have (1) failed to pay their required insurance premiums (thus cheating the system to save money), (2) failed to report wage data to the state of California (making it hard for a worker to establish their wages), and, like they have in other states, (3) resisted reimbursing California for the hundreds of millions of dollars they owe in unemployment insurance premiums.
If workers were to collect benefits now, law-abiding businesses will be picking up the tab, since the state pays workers from a single fund that all employers contribute into. California also knows that companies like Uber & Lyft will fight paying into the system in the short-term.
So, when the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program was created that could (possibly) offer similar benefits to workers, it would seem reasonable to make sure workers are paid from that program – especially when state officials know that Uber & Lyft have refused to live up to their obligations under the law.
But, the PUA can be worse for some workers and less protective compared to state law.
Here are four concerns we have about those weaknesses that we will be tracking and working to get in front of the administration:
When the state’s shelter-in-place orders are lifted, some workers may not continue to be eligible for PUA, when they would *still* be eligible for state unemployment insurance. In fact, the U.S. Department of Labor’s own guidance suggests that qualifying unemployment for PUA is “likely to be of short term duration.” In no uncertain terms, California should clarify that if a gig worker loses PUA benefits before they received 39 weeks of benefits that they should be able to access traditional state unemployment benefits (and any extension of benefits). This includes clarifying the Governor’s recent executive order regarding a worker’s ability to use base period wages to establish a claim for traditional unemployment benefits.
If the state relies on a driver’s tax return information, PUA benefits may be based on *net* earnings, not gross earnings. This means many workers who have filed their most recent tax return and deducted expenses could receive a lower benefit. The EDD should demand wage information up-front from companies like Uber & Lyft or rely on gross earnings where possible when administering the PUA, as they would under traditional unemployment insurance.
Workers may be on the hook to pay back the federal government if there is a mistake in their application and they accidentally get paid too much. This is why the state should ensure that they collect records from the companies, rather than rely on self-reported income from workers alone.
In addition, federal law states that workers may access PUA only if they are deemed *ineligible* for state unemployment benefits. While both Secretary Su and Governor Newsom have clarified that gig workers in CA are employees, that AB5 must be enforced (something courts have been saying repeatedly), and that accessing PUA won’t impact CA workers’ classification as employees, it is unclear how the state will treat a worker’s eligibility for traditional unemployment benefits if they approve them for PUA.
CA state unemployment insurance
So, what does all of this mean for gig workers in California?
If you haven’t yet, go to the EDD site and apply for traditional Unemployment Insurance. If you get a letter saying you have $0 in reported wages, follow these directions: https://legalaidatwork.org/wp-
If you get a denial, appeal it.
Once the PUA funds are available, likely on April 28th, workers can apply through the same website they submitted their unemployment application. However, they should be aware of some of the drawbacks and should work with GWR to demand that worker’s claims be treated fairly.
EDD is saying that funds from PUA will be available between 24-48 hours after a worker applies.
Gig workers should monitor this situation.
The post State Unemployment Insurance versus PUA for Gig Workers in California appeared first on ValueWalk.
EUR/GBP price prediction: is the bears’ pain over?
Ever since Brexit happened, the British pound gained against the common currency, the euro. Despite many analysts calling for the pound’s decline, it…
Ever since Brexit happened, the British pound gained against the common currency, the euro. Despite many analysts calling for the pound’s decline, it gained ground in a relentless bearish trend.
The downtrend was so strong that even in 2022, some analysts believe that the EUR/GBP exchange rate will still hover around 0.84 in March 2023 – about 10 months from now.
Currently, EUR/GBP trades at 0.85, bouncing from its lows and looking constructive from fundamental and technical perspectives. So, where will the exchange rate go next?
Here is a price prediction considering both the technical and fundamental aspects.
The two central banks’ policies are set to diverge
Let’s start with the fundamental perspective. A currency pair moves based on the monetary policy differences between the two central banks.
In this case, the Bank of England was one of the first major central banks in the world that decided to increase the interest rate in the aftermath of the COVID-19 induced recession. Moreover, it did so not once but multiple times.
At the same time, the European Central Bank did nothing. It couldn’t do so, as a war started in Eastern Europe (Russia invaded Ukraine) in February.
In order to shelter European economies from the war’s economic impact, the European Central Bank preferred a wait-and-see stance. However, inflation is running way higher than the central bank’s target, and one of the causes is just the war.
As such, the central bank recently announced that it plans to end negative rates by September. Considering that the deposit facility rate is at negative 50bp, it means that a couple of rate hikes are on the table during the summer.
Yet, the Bank of England is now in a wait-and-see mode. Therefore, the fundamentals favor a move higher in the EUR/GBP exchange rate over the summer.
An inverse head and shoulders shows EUR/GBP struggling to overcome resistance
From a technical perspective, the market may have bottomed with the move to 0.82. It was quickly retraced, suggesting the presence of an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
A close above 0.86 should put the 0.90 area in focus. That is where the pattern’s measured move points to, and the move also implies that the lower highs series would be broken, thus ending the bearish bias.
All in all, EUR/GBP looks bullish here. Both technical and fundamental aspects favor more strength in the months ahead.
The post EUR/GBP price prediction: is the bears’ pain over? appeared first on Invezz.recession covid-19 monetary policy pound euro european europe russia ukraine
Weekly investment update – Weaker economic outlook weighs on markets
Global equities have continued their sell-off over the last week. What is new is that markets are now reacting to risks of weaker economic data weighing…
Global equities have continued their sell-off over the last week. What is new is that markets are now reacting to risks of weaker economic data weighing on earnings. Real bond yields, whose rise triggered the recent drop in equity markets, have fallen as investors price a higher probability of a recession.
Yields of US Treasury bonds have slipped since reaching around 3.12% in early May (see Exhibit 1). The rally has been driven by fears of a global recession due to poor economic data, strong inflation numbers, aggressive talk from central bankers and concerns over the consequences of Covid in China.
Recent data that contributed to the bond market’s unease about the prospects for the US economy includes:
- The Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing survey, which fell to its lowest since 2020 at -9.
- The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York fell to -11.6, with the shipment measure falling at its fastest pace since the start of the pandemic two years ago.
- The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s May business index dropped 15 points to 2.6, with the six-month outlook falling to its lowest since December 2008 (though the underlying details were better than the headline number).
- Existing and new home sales dropped for a third month, to its lowest since 2020, held back by lean inventory, rising prices and higher mortgage rates.
Taken together, the various regional Federal Reserve surveys suggest that the ISM Report for Business may come in at around 53, above 50 so still clearly in expansion territory for the US economy, but down noticeably from the upper 50s/lows 60s readings to which markets have become accustomed.
US equities still weak
US equities have remained weak as the down move continues for its seventh week.
It has been apparent that, in contrast to the start of the year when rising real bond yields were undermining equity markets, it is now fears of falling earnings due to a weaker economy that are weighing on stocks.
The last week has seen, in accordance with the risk-off regime, more buying-the-dip and selling-the-rally. There has also been a rotation out of growth and cyclicals into value and defensives (healthcare, real estate, utilities and staples).
European markets under the cosh
Bearish sentiment is prevalent in Europe, too, with investors cutting exposures to European equities.
There was another outflow in the week to 18 May, taking the total to 14 weeks of outflows in a row. Cyclicals, in particular, saw strong outflows, led by the materials, financials and energy sectors.
Our multi-asset team are inclined to reduce exposure to equity markets given the deterioration in the outlook.
European economy resists
Economic activity indicators have fallen so far in May, but remain above 50. Activity edged up in the manufacturing sector despite the fallout from the Ukraine war and supply chain disruptions that have intensified with China’s coronavirus lockdowns.
Although factories continue to report widespread supply constraints and diminished demand for goods amid elevated price pressures, the eurozone economy is being boosted by pent-up demand for services as pandemic-related restrictions are wound down.
While purchasing manager indices are still pointing to growth, it may be that these surveys understate the shock to activity, while sentiment surveys likely overstate the shock. Markets are increasingly tilting towards anticipation of a contraction in the coming quarters.
Higher food prices
Restrictions on the export of Ukrainian cereals continue and risks increasing food insecurity as the UN World Food Programme has highlighted.
As much of Russian and Ukrainian wheat goes to poorer nations, hunger could be a critical risk, driving up political instability.
The risk of further rises in food prices will be a key driver of inflation, particularly in emerging markets, the worst-case scenario being that the situation worsens significantly.
Moreover, lower fertiliser supply will have a greater impact on the next few months’ harvests, while the pass-through of costlier logistics and input prices is likely to drive food prices even higher.
Minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Open Markets Committee on 3-4 May will be published later on Wednesday.
However, market conditions have soured appreciably since the Fed’s first 50bp rate rise, so some of the language in the minutes pertaining to financial risks and market conditions will be outdated.
Instead, the three major focus points for market participants will likely be:
- Policymakers’ views on the conditions which could lead to a shift down, back to a pace of raising rates by 25bp at each FOMC meeting;
- Any hints as to how far and for how long policymakers intend to push policy rates into restrictive territory;
- Guidance shaping expectations for the next Summary of Economic Projections — aka the dot plot — due to be released at the June meeting.
Forthcoming economic data
US personal income and spending data for April should give investors an insight into the US consumer’s behaviour: Are they tightening the purse strings? The report may also show the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (core PCE deflator) starting to decelerate.
Perhaps equally important, the report should shed light on how consumers are responding to the current high inflation environment, indicating how wages are performing relative to inflation and how aggressively consumers are tapping into the USD 2.5 trillion of accumulated savings from the pandemic period.
Any views expressed here are those of the author as of the date of publication, are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may take different investment decisions for different clients. The views expressed in this podcast do not in any way constitute investment advice.
The value of investments and the income they generate may go down as well as up and it is possible that investors will not recover their initial outlay. Past performance is no guarantee for future returns.
Investing in emerging markets, or specialised or restricted sectors is likely to be subject to a higher-than-average volatility due to a high degree of concentration, greater uncertainty because less information is available, there is less liquidity or due to greater sensitivity to changes in market conditions (social, political and economic conditions).
Some emerging markets offer less security than the majority of international developed markets. For this reason, services for portfolio transactions, liquidation and conservation on behalf of funds invested in emerging markets may carry greater risk.
Writen by Andrew Craig. The post Weekly investment update – Weaker economic outlook weighs on markets appeared first on Investors' Corner - The official blog of BNP Paribas Asset Management, the sustainable investor for a changing world.recession pandemic coronavirus treasury bonds bonds emerging markets equities stocks fomc fed federal reserve us treasury home sales mortgage rates real estate recession european europe ukraine china
Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 50 States in April
From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for April 2022. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in all 50 states, for a three-month diffusion index of 100. Additiona…
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for April 2022. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in all 50 states, for a three-month diffusion index of 100. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in all 50 states, for a one-month diffusion index of 100. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 1.1 percent over the past three months and 0.3 percent in April.Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.Click on map for larger image.
Here is a map of the three-month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the Pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession.
The map is all positive on a three-month basis.
Source: Philly Fed.
And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed.
In April all 50 states had increasing activity including minor increases.
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