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Stairway to Scarcity: Bitcoin Sentiment to Rise Despite Halving Impact

Stairway to Scarcity: Bitcoin Sentiment to Rise Despite Halving Impact

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Post-halving scenario on Bitcoin’s long-term market trust and reputation seems quite positive according to crypto pundits.

With Bitcoin’s (BTC) fourth halving just four days away, members of the global crypto community are eager to see how the event pans out monetarily for the flagship crypto asset. Historically speaking, the halving has almost always had a positive impact on Bitcoin’s price, but this time around, many experts believe that any potential value surges may have already been priced in

It bears mentioning that the halving will most likely have the biggest impact on miners, as the reduced reward ratio following the event will rapidly alter their profit streams, forcing small-time players to either adjust their operations accordingly or shut down completely. 

Not only that, some pundits have commented that the aforementioned “supply shock” could compromise the security of Bitcoin by causing a rapid drop in miner hash power. In this regard, Alex Heid, the chief research officer at SecurityScorecard — an information security company that rates the cybersecurity risks of corporate entities — believes that ransomware attacks will increase as a result of the halving, with miscreants most likely making use of known vulnerabilities and phishing as a means of deployment. So, how is the upcoming halving going to impact BTC’s overall market sentiment and trust?

Traditional finance helps Bitcoin

With the coronavirus pandemic currently sweeping the globe, it appears as though more people may be turning to believe that their local monetary systems have some flaws, especially as central banks such as the United States Federal Reserve continue to print an increasing amount of fiat currency as part of its quantitative easing efforts. 

Additionally, many governments have made a major push to increase the adoption of digital payment systems as well as other contactless payment mediums to adhere to social distancing measures that have been deemed essential during this time. 

Owing to the fact that the aforementioned COVID-19 crisis coincides with the BTC halving, the premier cryptocurrency’s image seems to have improved somewhat in the eyes of investors, who are now beginning to gain a more in-depth understanding of Bitcoin’s self-deflationary and decentralized design. Commenting on the subject, BlockFi co-founder and CEO Zac Prince told Cointelegraph that the halving is a “perfectly timed opportunity for Bitcoin,” adding:

“Current market dynamics are driving a bolstered interest on digital currency for the long run that go beyond a rudimentary understanding of the rules of supply and demand. Historically, past halving events have always resulted in an eventual upswing of BTC.”

Prince further opined that with the Fed printing money to keep the economy afloat, more and more Americans have started to flock toward Bitcoin as a store of value — thus showcasing their long-term trust in the digital commodity. Not only that, he also believes that because Bitcoin was able to successfully bounce back from its pandemic-induced losses recently, an increasing number of people are now beginning to accumulate it in order to diversify their existing portfolios. He added: 

“As more people see its value, on top of ongoing peripheral retail pressure, we believe we will see the price of Bitcoin will rise steadily, and at times rapidly, over the next few years.”

Lastly, Bitcoin’s steadily growing market reputation is cemented by the fact that countries like India, Nigeria and Lebanon have witnessed an increasing amount of crypto adoption — especially as stock markets around the world have incurred substantial losses over the past month and a half. And while in the past, people have tended to flock to the U.S. dollar as a safe haven, the dollar itself is potentially facing uncertain times, causing an increased number of people to take refuge in different offerings to protect their wealth.

Institutions to capitalize on crypto post-halving?

Another interesting discussion that has piqued the interest of many is whether the upcoming halving will help lure in more institutional players — especially if BTC starts to surge steadily following the event. In this regard, common sense suggests that if Bitcoin does, in fact, witness a dramatic increase in its value, the asset could join the company of scarce commodities like gold that investors believe can not only serve as good stores of value but also provide investors with a means of hedging economic risks associated with black swan events such as the coronavirus crisis.

Providing insight on the matter, John Cantrell, CEO of Juggernaut — a messenger service built on Bitcoin and Lightning Network that offers end-to-end encryption — told Cointelegraph that as per his research, a whole host of forward-looking institutions have already made moves to understand the value proposition that Bitcoin provides and have therefore invested in the asset. However, for the big-name players who haven’t really paid attention to BTC, Cantrell believes that the upcoming halving provides them with a perfect avenue for exploration.

Similarly, Prince believes that the crypto market is now ready for an influx of institutional money. On the subject, he highlighted that as things stand, an incredible amount of infrastructure has already been established for retail and institutional investors to own Bitcoin:

“Traditional fintech retail platforms like Square, SoFi and Robinhood have made purchasing Bitcoin available on their platform, and firms like Fidelity and Grayscale are building products to support institutional adoption.”

However, a somewhat contrary opinion is held by Checkmate, co-host of the Rough Consensus podcast and a research contractor for the open-source, autonomous digital currency Decred. He believes that the current volatility and lack of liquid derivative infrastructure to hedge risk has kept big-name institutional players from entering this market, telling Cointelegraph, “Institutions will come when the financial infrastructure and size make Bitcoin an invest-able asset class. The halving likely has little to do with this.”

Market sentiment has already improved significantly

Amid the global economic uncertainty, it seems as though cryptocurrencies have been steadily gaining an air of trust and legitimacy around them. In this regard, eToro analyst Mathew De Corrado told Cointelegraph that since the last halving event in 2016, his company has seen an influx of clients looking to add Bitcoin to their portfolio.

He also pointed out that a lot of eToro customers have shown greater interest in cryptocurrency as a result of the increased economic stimulus added by governments across the globe, especially because a vast majority of crypto investors tend to see these assets as a hedge against potential future inflation and the depreciation of their local currency. De Corrado closed out by saying:

“Trust in crypto assets, in my opinion, will largely stem from increased visibility in the public eye, from governmental organizations, increased regulation and/or oversight, and also from increased demand from institutional investors.”

Lastly, Cantrell stated that as more people realize Bitcoin has a fixed supply as well as a known production schedule — meaning the asset can’t be inflated at will — their confidence and sentiment toward crypto will increase at a rapid rate.

Bitcoin’s reputation will remain unaffected

With the halving fast approaching, it remains to be seen how BTC’s public perception will change after the event, given that the currency may be subject to a price surge or a decline in the short term. If Bitcoin is able to stay on an upward ascent, it would help embed the narrative that Bitcoin is not only a potential long-term investment avenue but also a means of hedging economic risks that are usually witnessed when traditional markets tumble and fall as a result of unfavorable market conditions.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin’s value starts to slide after the halving, investor confidence may be influenced, but when considering the current market situation, this effect may not be long-lasting. 

Speaking on this issue, De Corrado believes that irrespective of how BTC’s financial future plays out after the halving, the currency’s reputation will most likely remain unaffected. However, he did concede that if a volatile future is in store, it might present investors with an opportunity to trade on what will likely be increased volatility, in anticipation of the cut to the supply side of the equation. He concluded:

“For context, Bitcoin had one of the biggest weeks of the year, up approximately 19.2% for the week ending Sunday. With such a significant rise in just a single week, the big question will be how much of the halving event caused that rise, and what can investors expect to see in the coming 14-day period?”

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Illegal Immigrants Leave US Hospitals With Billions In Unpaid Bills

Illegal Immigrants Leave US Hospitals With Billions In Unpaid Bills

By Autumn Spredemann of The Epoch Times

Tens of thousands of illegal…

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Illegal Immigrants Leave US Hospitals With Billions In Unpaid Bills

By Autumn Spredemann of The Epoch Times

Tens of thousands of illegal immigrants are flooding into U.S. hospitals for treatment and leaving billions in uncompensated health care costs in their wake.

The House Committee on Homeland Security recently released a report illustrating that from the estimated $451 billion in annual costs stemming from the U.S. border crisis, a significant portion is going to health care for illegal immigrants.

With the majority of the illegal immigrant population lacking any kind of medical insurance, hospitals and government welfare programs such as Medicaid are feeling the weight of these unanticipated costs.

Apprehensions of illegal immigrants at the U.S. border have jumped 48 percent since the record in fiscal year 2021 and nearly tripled since fiscal year 2019, according to Customs and Border Protection data.

Last year broke a new record high for illegal border crossings, surpassing more than 3.2 million apprehensions.

And with that sea of humanity comes the need for health care and, in most cases, the inability to pay for it.

In January, CEO of Denver Health Donna Lynne told reporters that 8,000 illegal immigrants made roughly 20,000 visits to the city’s health system in 2023.

The total bill for uncompensated care costs last year to the system totaled $140 million, said Dane Roper, public information officer for Denver Health. More than $10 million of it was attributed to “care for new immigrants,” he told The Epoch Times.

Though the amount of debt assigned to illegal immigrants is a fraction of the total, uncompensated care costs in the Denver Health system have risen dramatically over the past few years.

The total uncompensated costs in 2020 came to $60 million, Mr. Roper said. In 2022, the number doubled, hitting $120 million.

He also said their city hospitals are treating issues such as “respiratory illnesses, GI [gastro-intenstinal] illnesses, dental disease, and some common chronic illnesses such as asthma and diabetes.”

“The perspective we’ve been trying to emphasize all along is that providing healthcare services for an influx of new immigrants who are unable to pay for their care is adding additional strain to an already significant uncompensated care burden,” Mr. Roper said.

He added this is why a local, state, and federal response to the needs of the new illegal immigrant population is “so important.”

Colorado is far from the only state struggling with a trail of unpaid hospital bills.

EMS medics with the Houston Fire Department transport a Mexican woman the hospital in Houston on Aug. 12, 2020. (John Moore/Getty Images)

Dr. Robert Trenschel, CEO of the Yuma Regional Medical Center situated on the Arizona–Mexico border, said on average, illegal immigrants cost up to three times more in human resources to resolve their cases and provide a safe discharge.

“Some [illegal] migrants come with minor ailments, but many of them come in with significant disease,” Dr. Trenschel said during a congressional hearing last year.

“We’ve had migrant patients on dialysis, cardiac catheterization, and in need of heart surgery. Many are very sick.”

He said many illegal immigrants who enter the country and need medical assistance end up staying in the ICU ward for 60 days or more.

A large portion of the patients are pregnant women who’ve had little to no prenatal treatment. This has resulted in an increase in babies being born that require neonatal care for 30 days or longer.

Dr. Trenschel told The Epoch Times last year that illegal immigrants were overrunning healthcare services in his town, leaving the hospital with $26 million in unpaid medical bills in just 12 months.

ER Duty to Care

The Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act of 1986 requires that public hospitals participating in Medicare “must medically screen all persons seeking emergency care … regardless of payment method or insurance status.”

The numbers are difficult to gauge as the policy position of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is that it “will not require hospital staff to ask patients directly about their citizenship or immigration status.”

In southern California, again close to the border with Mexico, some hospitals are struggling with an influx of illegal immigrants.

American patients are enduring longer wait times for doctor appointments due to a nursing shortage in the state, two health care professionals told The Epoch Times in January.

A health care worker at a hospital in Southern California, who asked not to be named for fear of losing her job, told The Epoch Times that “the entire health care system is just being bombarded” by a steady stream of illegal immigrants.

“Our healthcare system is so overwhelmed, and then add on top of that tuberculosis, COVID-19, and other diseases from all over the world,” she said.

A Salvadorian man is aided by medical workers after cutting his leg while trying to jump on a truck in Matias Romero, Mexico, on Nov. 2, 2018. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

A newly-enacted law in California provides free healthcare for all illegal immigrants residing in the state. The law could cost taxpayers between $3 billion and $6 billion per year, according to recent estimates by state and federal lawmakers.

In New York, where the illegal immigration crisis has manifested most notably beyond the southern border, city and state officials have long been accommodating of illegal immigrants’ healthcare costs.

Since June 2014, when then-mayor Bill de Blasio set up The Task Force on Immigrant Health Care Access, New York City has worked to expand avenues for illegal immigrants to get free health care.

“New York City has a moral duty to ensure that all its residents have meaningful access to needed health care, regardless of their immigration status or ability to pay,” Mr. de Blasio stated in a 2015 report.

The report notes that in 2013, nearly 64 percent of illegal immigrants were uninsured. Since then, tens of thousands of illegal immigrants have settled in the city.

“The uninsured rate for undocumented immigrants is more than three times that of other noncitizens in New York City (20 percent) and more than six times greater than the uninsured rate for the rest of the city (10 percent),” the report states.

The report states that because healthcare providers don’t ask patients about documentation status, the task force lacks “data specific to undocumented patients.”

Some health care providers say a big part of the issue is that without a clear path to insurance or payment for non-emergency services, illegal immigrants are going to the hospital due to a lack of options.

“It’s insane, and it has been for years at this point,” Dana, a Texas emergency room nurse who asked to have her full name omitted, told The Epoch Times.

Working for a major hospital system in the greater Houston area, Dana has seen “a zillion” migrants pass through under her watch with “no end in sight.” She said many who are illegal immigrants arrive with treatable illnesses that require simple antibiotics. “Not a lot of GPs [general practitioners] will see you if you can’t pay and don’t have insurance.”

She said the “undocumented crowd” tends to arrive with a lot of the same conditions. Many find their way to Houston not long after crossing the southern border. Some of the common health issues Dana encounters include dehydration, unhealed fractures, respiratory illnesses, stomach ailments, and pregnancy-related concerns.

“This isn’t a new problem, it’s just worse now,” Dana said.

Emergency room nurses and EMTs tend to patients in hallways at the Houston Methodist The Woodlands Hospital in Houston on Aug. 18, 2021. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Medicaid Factor

One of the main government healthcare resources illegal immigrants use is Medicaid.

All those who don’t qualify for regular Medicaid are eligible for Emergency Medicaid, regardless of immigration status. By doing this, the program helps pay for the cost of uncompensated care bills at qualifying hospitals.

However, some loopholes allow access to the regular Medicaid benefits. “Qualified noncitizens” who haven’t been granted legal status within five years still qualify if they’re listed as a refugee, an asylum seeker, or a Cuban or Haitian national.

Yet the lion’s share of Medicaid usage by illegal immigrants still comes through state-level benefits and emergency medical treatment.

A Congressional report highlighted data from the CMS, which showed total Medicaid costs for “emergency services for undocumented aliens” in fiscal year 2021 surpassed $7 billion, and totaled more than $5 billion in fiscal 2022.

Both years represent a significant spike from the $3 billion in fiscal 2020.

An employee working with Medicaid who asked to be referred to only as Jennifer out of concern for her job, told The Epoch Times that at a state level, it’s easy for an illegal immigrant to access the program benefits.

Jennifer said that when exceptions are sent from states to CMS for approval, “denial is actually super rare. It’s usually always approved.”

She also said it comes as no surprise that many of the states with the highest amount of Medicaid spending are sanctuary states, which tend to have policies and laws that shield illegal immigrants from federal immigration authorities.

Moreover, Jennifer said there are ways for states to get around CMS guidelines. “It’s not easy, but it can and has been done.”

The first generation of illegal immigrants who arrive to the United States tend to be healthy enough to pass any pre-screenings, but Jennifer has observed that the subsequent generations tend to be sicker and require more access to care. If a family is illegally present, they tend to use Emergency Medicaid or nothing at all.

The Epoch Times asked Medicaid Services to provide the most recent data for the total uncompensated care that hospitals have reported. The agency didn’t respond.

Continue reading over at The Epoch Times

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 09:45

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Fast-food chain closes restaurants after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Several major fast-food chains recently have struggled to keep restaurants open.

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Competition in the fast-food space has been brutal as operators deal with inflation, consumers who are worried about the economy and their jobs and, in recent months, the falling cost of eating at home. 

Add in that many fast-food chains took on more debt during the covid pandemic and that labor costs are rising, and you have a perfect storm of problems. 

It's a situation where Restaurant Brands International (QSR) has suffered as much as any company.  

Related: Wendy's menu drops a fan favorite item, adds something new

Three major Burger King franchise operators filed for bankruptcy in 2023, and the chain saw hundreds of stores close. It also saw multiple Popeyes franchisees move into bankruptcy, with dozens of locations closing.

RBI also stepped in and purchased one of its key franchisees.

"Carrols is the largest Burger King franchisee in the United States today, operating 1,022 Burger King restaurants in 23 states that generated approximately $1.8 billion of system sales during the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2023," RBI said in a news release. Carrols also owns and operates 60 Popeyes restaurants in six states." 

The multichain company made the move after two of its large franchisees, Premier Kings and Meridian, saw multiple locations not purchased when they reached auction after Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. In that case, RBI bought select locations but allowed others to close.

Burger King lost hundreds of restaurants in 2023.

Image source: Chen Jianli/Xinhua via Getty

Another fast-food chain faces bankruptcy problems

Bojangles may not be as big a name as Burger King or Popeye's, but it's a popular chain with more than 800 restaurants in eight states.

"Bojangles is a Carolina-born restaurant chain specializing in craveable Southern chicken, biscuits and tea made fresh daily from real recipes, and with a friendly smile," the chain says on its website. "Founded in 1977 as a single location in Charlotte, our beloved brand continues to grow nationwide."

Like RBI, Bojangles uses a franchise model, which makes it dependent on the financial health of its operators. The company ultimately saw all its Maryland locations close due to the financial situation of one of its franchisees.

Unlike. RBI, Bojangles is not public — it was taken private by Durational Capital Management LP and Jordan Co. in 2018 — which means the company does not disclose its financial information to the public. 

That makes it hard to know whether overall softness for the brand contributed to the chain seeing its five Maryland locations after a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.

Bojangles has a messy bankruptcy situation

Even though the locations still appear on the Bojangles website, they have been shuttered since late 2023. The locations were operated by Salim Kakakhail and Yavir Akbar Durranni. The partners operated under a variety of LLCs, including ABS Network, according to local news channel WUSA9

The station reported that the owners face a state investigation over complaints of wage theft and fraudulent W2s. In November Durranni and ABS Network filed for bankruptcy in New Jersey, WUSA9 reported.

"Not only do former employees say these men owe them money, WUSA9 learned the former owners owe the state, too, and have over $69,000 in back property taxes."

Former employees also say that the restaurant would regularly purchase fried chicken from Popeyes and Safeway when it ran out in their stores, the station reported. 

Bojangles sent the station a comment on the situation.

"The franchisee is no longer in the Bojangles system," the company said. "However, it is important to note in your coverage that franchisees are independent business owners who are licensed to operate a brand but have autonomy over many aspects of their business, including hiring employees and payroll responsibilities."

Kakakhail and Durranni did not respond to multiple requests for comment from WUSA9.

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Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in February

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 p…

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From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 percent. Both gains partly reflected recoveries from weather-related declines in January. The index for utilities fell 7.5 percent in February because of warmer-than-typical temperatures. At 102.3 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in February was 0.2 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector remained at 78.3 percent in February, a rate that is 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 78.3% is 1.3% below the average from 1972 to 2022.  This was below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.


Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 102.3. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was above consensus expectations.

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