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Spoos Hug 4,200 In Thin Holiday Trading As Global Stocks Close Out 4th Month Of Gains

Spoos Hug 4,200 In Thin Holiday Trading As Global Stocks Close Out 4th Month Of Gains

It was anything but "sell in May"…

With US markets closed for Memorial Day, Emini futures traded virtually at 4,200 amid light volumes as world stocks…

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Spoos Hug 4,200 In Thin Holiday Trading As Global Stocks Close Out 4th Month Of Gains

It was anything but "sell in May"...

With US markets closed for Memorial Day, Emini futures traded virtually at 4,200 amid light volumes as world stocks were firmly on track to post a fourth straight month of gains on Monday.  MSCI’s index of world stocks drifted 0.1% higher, putting the gauge on track for a 1.4% gain for May. It is the longest monthly rising streak for the index since August 2020, when it marked a five-month run of gains, according to Reuters.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures swung between small gains and losses amid shortened trading hours due to the Memorial Day holiday in the U.S. The dollar was steady against a basket of peers.

The dollar continued to struggle ahead of a slew of European and U.S. data this week that will provide a clearer picture on the global economy’s recovery path, while Brent was trading just shy of $70 after OEC

With US traders out, European stocks struggled for direction as markets awaited fresh catalysts, with the US payroll data later this week set to provide further clues on the outlook for the biggest economy. Europe's Stoxx 600 index fluctuated in a narrow range. Spain’s Endesa SA dragged the utilities sector lower following reports the Spanish government is preparing to rein in windfall profits for power producers. Deutsche Bank AG dropped after the Federal Reserve warned that its compliance programs aren’t adequate. U.K. markets were closed for a holiday. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Cattolica jumped as much as 14% in Milan trading after Assicurazioni Generali offered to buy all the shares it doesn’t already own in the Italian insurer at EU6.75 apiece in cash.
  • Norwegian Air gained as much as 13% after the battled airline resumed flying in Sweden on Monday. The company said it will offer 31 destinations from Stockholm and two from Gothenburg in the summer.
  • Spanish utilities fell Monday with Endesa down as much as 5.4% after reports during the weekend that the government is preparing to rein in so-called windfall profits from nuclear and hydraulic energy plants.
  • Solutions 30 shares slumped as much as 14% after the technology-services company said it will hold its annual shareholder meeting and a special meeting on June 30 although it hasn’t yet chosen a new accounting firm, while the company’s auditor refused to certify 2020 accounts.

Earlier in the quiet session, Asian stocks rose with the benchmark gauge on track to outperform the S&P 500 Index for the first month since January. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index went up 0.3%, buoyed by shares in Indonesia and Taiwan. China’s CSI 300 Index closed 0.2% higher Monday, extending gains after its best weekly surge since February on the back of record foreign buying of local stocks. Meanwhile, Malaysian stocks were among the day’s biggest decliners, with the benchmark index sliding 0.7% after the government imposed a two-week nationwide lockdown to curb a surge in Covid-19 infections. Shares in Japan and the Philippines also fell. Still, the Asian gauge is poised to gain more than 1% in May, in its second straight monthly advance as inflation concerns ease globally and the dollar weakens. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, in which China has the largest weighting, climbed 1.1% Monday to its highest level since March 4. “We expect equities to nudge higher on strong earnings,” Nomura Holdings Inc. strategists led by Chetan Seth wrote in a mid-year outlook report on Asia Pacific equities. “Modest tightening of global liquidity in 2H implies multiples remain constrained and thus earnings growth/revisions will be the key to take stocks higher.” The brokerage has a year-end target of 900 for the MSCI Asia ex. Japan Index, implying a 1.8% upside from its Friday’s close.

Japanese stocks fell as investors took advantage of Friday’s rally to trim holdings as they assess the economic impact of the state of emergency for the nation’s major cities. Electronics makers and machinery companies were among the heaviest drags on the Topix, after being some of the biggest boosts to the gauge’s jump at the end of last week. SoftBank Group was the top contributor to the decline in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average after a report said Credit Suisse Group AG will no longer do any new business with the Japanese firm. Shares of Renesas Electronics Corp. slid after the Japanese automotive chip maker announced that it will raise $2 billion from a stock sale to fund its purchase of Apple Inc. supplier Dialog Semiconductor Plc. “Japanese equities are prone to a selloff” given the gain on Friday, said Hajime Sakai, the chief fund manager at Mito Securities Co. in Tokyo. Whether the Nikkei 225 can head back toward 30,000 “will depend on how soon the country can go back to normalizing economic activity,” he said. Shares are underperforming the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index after economic figures illustrated the pandemic’s impact. While factory output increased at a faster pace in April, retail sales dropped last month. Domestic demand remains subdued amid another virus wave and a third state of emergency the government extended last week until June 20. Shoji Hirakawa, the chief global strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research Institute, said the Nikkei 225 may waver near 29,000, a key psychological level for the market. The blue-chip gauge closed above that level for the first time in almost three weeks on May 28, while the Topix climbed the most since March 1

Despite the popular mantra that this is the month to sell, May has proven to be a decent month for asset markets but that may not last as policymakers are increasingly faced with the dilemma that inflation is running hot while the underlying structural economy is still struggling to gain traction. The Fed is facing growing pressures to taper between record usage of its reverse repo facility (as half a trillion dollars are now parked at the Fed earning nothing due to a monster liquidity glut), and surging inflation which may or may not be transitory.

Until then, however, sentiment is bullish with global stocks trading near a record, lifted by the ongoing economic recovery from the pandemic and injections of stimulus. The rally has so far weathered concerns that price pressures could force an earlier-than-expected reduction in central bank support. But investors remain sensitive to the risk, and Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report could buffet markets if it changes perceptions of the rebound’s strength.

“Policy makers have committed to accepting a higher level of inflation, higher volatility in inflation and as that happens you will see inflation moving structurally higher,” Mixo Das, JPMorgan Asia equity strategist, said on Bloomberg TV. “I don’t think this is in the prices yet.”

“The question is, therefore, whether by September the Federal Reserve will be in a position to announce a tapering of its bond purchases starting next year, and the odds are quite decent though it might be delayed to December,” said Sebastien Galy, a strategist at Nordea.

There’s no Treasuries cash trading today, after the 10-year yield closed just below 1.6% on Friday. Among central banks debating inflation trends, the European Central Bank is perhaps the outlier with both policymakers and investors on the same page when it comes to expecting a return to below-target inflation, according to Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank. That was evident in the bond markets too, where yields on benchmark German debt remained well below recent highs.

In FX, the yuan was the big mover in global currency markets after policymakers directed financial institutions to hold more foreign exchange in reserves, a move that analysts say was aimed at curbing yuan strength. In the offshore markets, the yuan currency weakened 0.23% versus the U.S. dollar with analysts at ING arguing that Beijing’s latest move will slow the currency’s rise but won’t halt it completely.

In commodities, crude oil rose with Brent approaching $70 as the market focused on an OPEC+ supply policy meeting early this week, while gold headed for the biggest monthly advance since July and most industrial metals gained. Concerns about global inflation and slowing growth have proved to be a boon for gold, with prices for the yellow metal rising 8% this month, vaulting comfortably above $1,900.

Unusually quiet cryptocurrencies showed some signs of volatility in holiday-stricken trading with bitcoin rising 4% to $37,000 while its smaller rival Ethereum climbed 8% to $2,578. Crytpos recovered Friday and weekend losses after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda became the latest central banker to bash bitcoin and its peers amid fears the capital outflow will spoil the central bankers' digital currency plans.

The main event of the week will be U.S. payrolls on Friday with median forecasts at 650,000, but the outcome is uncertain following April’s unexpectedly weak 266,000 gain. Although U.S. inflation data last week was above estimates, another big miss on the jobs front would heap pressure on the Fed to postpone plans to wind down its stimulus. On the other hand, a 1MM print or higher and taper talk speculation will return.  The Fed next meets on June 16, and this week will be the last chance for members to discuss policy before a pre-meeting blackout period starts on June 5.

* * *

A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk

Asian equity markets began the week subdued with risk appetite sapped amid holiday closures for key global markets, month-end factors and as the region also digested mixed Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 (-0.2%) traded marginally lower with the index pressured by underperformance in energy, tech and financials although downside was cushioned by strength in metal-related stocks, especially gold miners after the precious metal reclaimed the USD 1,900/oz status and domestic producers came close to topping China in terms of the world’s largest gold output during Q1. Furthermore, Australia's tensions with its largest trading partner continued to linger with the government readying to launch a second WTO action in its trade dispute with China after finalising consultation with wine exporters in recent weeks. Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) underperformed after the extension of the state of emergency for Tokyo and several other prefectures on Friday in an effort to slow COVID-19 infections and as the Olympic games remain on the line, with mild currency inflows and weaker than expected Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures adding to the headwinds for the Japanese benchmark. Hang Seng (-0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) conformed to the uninspired mood after mixed Chinese PMI data in which the headline Manufacturing PMI slightly missed expectations but Non-Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts. The factory activity data was seen as a stabilization which was said to support analysts’ views that China’s economic activity could be peaking in Q2, while reports late last week added to the China crackdown narrative with the securities regulator paying greater attention to fluctuations in commodity prices recently and vowed to take action on future market violations. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat despite the risk averse tone in Japan as price action was constrained amid the similar lacklustre trade in T-notes and following weaker demand at the 2-year JGB auction.

Stocks in Europe trade without a firm direction (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%), as the tentative sentiment reverberated from APAC amid low volumes as UK and US participants observe domestic holidays. That being said, some money could be funnelled into crypto markets in the absence of cash stocks. Back to Europe, sectors are mixed with no overarching theme or bias and narrow breadth of the market. Travel & Leisure resides as a narrow outperformer alongside Construction and Financial Services, whilst Telecoms, Healthcare, and Banks reside on the other end of the spectrum. Of note for the auto sector, Stellantis (+0.2%) has been forced to reduce more operations amid the chip shortage. Food and Beverages saw a firm start to the week, potentially as Danone (+1.1%) and Nestle (+0.1%) cheered China's child policy relaxation whereby it will permit up to three children from the prior of two. Nestle, however, drifted lower thereafter as reports suggested that 60% of its mainstream good and drink products do not meet the "recognised definition of health". In terms of other movers, Deutsche Bank (-1.6%) is pressured following source reports that the US Federal Reserve has warned the Co. that it is failing to address shortcomings in anti-money-laundering controls – with the central bank's frustration reportedly escalating to the point a fine could be issued. One to keep an eye on the broader inflationary narrative – UK homebuilder Travis Perkins has warned customers of "considerable" cost increases due to rises in raw material prices. It said the increases could affect its other brands, which include Keyline and BSS. Travis Perkins said the price of bagged cement would rise by 15%, chipboard by 10% and paint by 5% from Tuesday.

In FX, the Dollar and index have lost momentum after their pre-weekend short squeeze that was likely exacerbated by the fact that the final trading day of the month coincides with US and UK market holidays. However, most Greenback vs G10 pairs remain relatively rangebound and in familiar territory, as evident in the DXY rotating in a tight range around the 90.000 level (between 90.123-89.961) that has been pivotal for so much of May, following the Buck’s decline from peaks early on. Looking ahead, external factors look set to dictate on Memorial Day for obvious reasons, but there could be some last minute rebalancing left to do or late fine-tuning of positions, and to recap this should mildly favour the Dollar against the Yen especially.

  • AUD/NZD - Having failed to sustain momentum when last within striking distance of 0.7800 vs its US counterpart and losing out to the Kiwi in wake of last week’s hawkish RBNZ rate guidance, the Aussie is holding comfortably above 0.7700 and has rebounded further from near 1.0600 lows awaiting Tuesday’s RBA policy meeting that may be more upbeat given recent economic developments. Nevertheless, the Aud/Usd and Aud/Nzd rebounds look more corrective at this stage amidst somewhat mixed credit data and Chinese PMIs, while Nzd/Usd is consolidating either side of 0.7250 in wake of comments from RBNZ Assistant Governor Hawkesby stressing conditionality surrounding the revised OCR path and warning markets not to pre-empt a hike. Next up for the Antipodeans, AIG’s manufacturing PMI and NZ building consents.
  • JPY/EUR/CHF/CAD/GBP - All narrowly divergent vs their US rival, with the Yen firmly back over 110.00 irrespective of Japanese ip and retail sales falling short of consensus, the Euro straddling 1.2200, Franc rotating around 0.9000, Loonie meandering from 1.2087-36 and Pound hovering under 1.4200. Meanwhile, Sterling is also marginally lagging the single currency circa 0.8600 in late May UK Bank holiday trade and with the Euro weighing up latest dovish ECB commentary via Visco against firm Eurozone inflation data. Elsewhere, not much independent direction from latest weekly Swiss sight deposits as domestic bank balances dipped, but Canadian PPI and current account data may Usd/Cad some impetus later.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures trade higher but off best levels at the time of writing as volumes are dry amid the absence of UK and US players, and against the backdrop of the JCPOA meeting in the run-up to tomorrow's back-to-back JMMC/OPEC+ confabs, slated for 13:30BST/08:30EDT. Sources via EnergyIntel have suggested that it is more likely that the current quota (through to July) will not be altered. Still, the return of Iranian oil is said to be one of the main topics at the upcoming meeting – with the situation contingent on developments in nuclear negotiations, which are said to have persisting sticking points. Note, participants expect the official announcement of a deal last week. Nonetheless, the Iranian oil minister hit the wires this morning and suggested that Iran, under specific requirements, could ramp up output 6.5mln BPD (vs last reported 2.5mln BPD). As a reminder, reports earlier this month citing the National Iranian Oil Corp suggested that under the most optimistic scenario, Iran could return to pre-sanctions levels of almost 4mln BPD in around three months. Iran has stated that it will not accept an OPEC quota until production levels return to pre-sanction levels. In terms of price action, WTI July has reclaimed a USD 67/bbl handle (vs low USD 66.41/bbl), and Brent Aug trades on either side of USD 69.50/bbl (vs low USD 68.75/bbl) – with some potential tailwinds from China widening its child policy and the OECD upgrading its 2021 forecasts across the board for major economies. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver tread water in tight ranges around USD 1900/oz and USD 28/oz amid a lack of fresh drivers and ahead of key risk events later this week, including the US jobs report and US ISM surveys. Turning to base metals, with the absence of LME, Shanghai copper overnight rose amid threats from the Chilean strikes at BHP mines, solidifying supply woes. Meanwhile, steel and iron ore futures in China rebounded, with traders citing a robust supply/demand balance despite jawboning from China.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/31/2021 - 08:59

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Comments on February Employment Report

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined.   The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the …

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The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined.   The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was increased to 3.9%.

Leisure and hospitality gained 58 thousand jobs in February.  At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 17 thousand jobs since February 2020.  So, leisure and hospitality has now essentially added back all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. 

Construction employment increased 23 thousand and is now 547 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. 

Manufacturing employment decreased 4 thousand jobs and is now 184 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.


Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in February to 83.5% from 83.3% in January, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.6% the previous month.

Both are above pre-pandemic levels.

Average Hourly Wages

WagesThe graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  

There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.3% YoY in February.   

Part Time for Economic Reasons

Part Time WorkersFrom the BLS report:
"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in February. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in February to 4.36 million from 4.42 million in February. This is slightly above pre-pandemic levels.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.3% from 7.2% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

Unemployed Over 26 WeeksThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.203 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.277 million the previous month.

This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million.

This is close to pre-pandemic levels.

Job Streak

Through February 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 38 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).

Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks
Year EndedStreak, Months
12019100
2199048
3200746
4197945
52024138
6 tie194333
6 tie198633
6 tie200033
9196729
10199525
1Currrent Streak

Summary:

The headline monthly jobs number was above consensus expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined.  The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was increased to 3.9%.  Another solid report.

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Immune cells can adapt to invading pathogens, deciding whether to fight now or prepare for the next battle

When faced with a threat, T cells have the decision-making flexibility to both clear out the pathogen now and ready themselves for a future encounter.

Understanding the flexibility of T cell memory can lead to improved vaccines and immunotherapies. Juan Gaertner/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

How does your immune system decide between fighting invading pathogens now or preparing to fight them in the future? Turns out, it can change its mind.

Every person has 10 million to 100 million unique T cells that have a critical job in the immune system: patrolling the body for invading pathogens or cancerous cells to eliminate. Each of these T cells has a unique receptor that allows it to recognize foreign proteins on the surface of infected or cancerous cells. When the right T cell encounters the right protein, it rapidly forms many copies of itself to destroy the offending pathogen.

Diagram depicting a helper T cell differentiating into either a memory T cell or an effector T cell after exposure to an antigen
T cells can differentiate into different subtypes of cells after coming into contact with an antigen. Anatomy & Physiology/SBCCOE, CC BY-NC-SA

Importantly, this process of proliferation gives rise to both short-lived effector T cells that shut down the immediate pathogen attack and long-lived memory T cells that provide protection against future attacks. But how do T cells decide whether to form cells that kill pathogens now or protect against future infections?

We are a team of bioengineers studying how immune cells mature. In our recently published research, we found that having multiple pathways to decide whether to kill pathogens now or prepare for future invaders boosts the immune system’s ability to effectively respond to different types of challenges.

Fight or remember?

To understand when and how T cells decide to become effector cells that kill pathogens or memory cells that prepare for future infections, we took movies of T cells dividing in response to a stimulus mimicking an encounter with a pathogen.

Specifically, we tracked the activity of a gene called T cell factor 1, or TCF1. This gene is essential for the longevity of memory cells. We found that stochastic, or probabilistic, silencing of the TCF1 gene when cells confront invading pathogens and inflammation drives an early decision between whether T cells become effector or memory cells. Exposure to higher levels of pathogens or inflammation increases the probability of forming effector cells.

Surprisingly, though, we found that some effector cells that had turned off TCF1 early on were able to turn it back on after clearing the pathogen, later becoming memory cells.

Through mathematical modeling, we determined that this flexibility in decision making among memory T cells is critical to generating the right number of cells that respond immediately and cells that prepare for the future, appropriate to the severity of the infection.

Understanding immune memory

The proper formation of persistent, long-lived T cell memory is critical to a person’s ability to fend off diseases ranging from the common cold to COVID-19 to cancer.

From a social and cognitive science perspective, flexibility allows people to adapt and respond optimally to uncertain and dynamic environments. Similarly, for immune cells responding to a pathogen, flexibility in decision making around whether to become memory cells may enable greater responsiveness to an evolving immune challenge.

Memory cells can be subclassified into different types with distinct features and roles in protective immunity. It’s possible that the pathway where memory cells diverge from effector cells early on and the pathway where memory cells form from effector cells later on give rise to particular subtypes of memory cells.

Our study focuses on T cell memory in the context of acute infections the immune system can successfully clear in days, such as cold, the flu or food poisoning. In contrast, chronic conditions such as HIV and cancer require persistent immune responses; long-lived, memory-like cells are critical for this persistence. Our team is investigating whether flexible memory decision making also applies to chronic conditions and whether we can leverage that flexibility to improve cancer immunotherapy.

Resolving uncertainty surrounding how and when memory cells form could help improve vaccine design and therapies that boost the immune system’s ability to provide long-term protection against diverse infectious diseases.

Kathleen Abadie was funded by a NSF (National Science Foundation) Graduate Research Fellowships. She performed this research in affiliation with the University of Washington Department of Bioengineering.

Elisa Clark performed her research in affiliation with the University of Washington (UW) Department of Bioengineering and was funded by a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (NSF-GRFP) and by a predoctoral fellowship through the UW Institute for Stem Cell and Regenerative Medicine (ISCRM).

Hao Yuan Kueh receives funding from the National Institutes of Health.

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President Biden Delivers The “Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President”

President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"

Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through…

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President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"

Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through the State of The Union, President Biden can go back to his crypt now.

Whatever 'they' gave Biden, every American man, woman, and the other should be allowed to take it - though it seems the cocktail brings out 'dark Brandon'?

Tl;dw: Biden's Speech tonight ...

  • Fund Ukraine.

  • Trump is threat to democracy and America itself.

  • Abortion is good.

  • American Economy is stronger than ever.

  • Inflation wasn't Biden's fault.

  • Illegals are Americans too.

  • Republicans are responsible for the border crisis.

  • Trump is bad.

  • Biden stands with trans-children.

  • J6 was the worst insurrection since the Civil War.

(h/t @TCDMS99)

Tucker Carlson's response sums it all up perfectly:

"that was possibly the darkest, most un-American speech given by an American president. It wasn't a speech, it was a rant..."

Carlson continued: "The true measure of a nation's greatness lies within its capacity to control borders, yet Bid refuses to do it."

"In a fair election, Joe Biden cannot win"

And concluded:

“There was not a meaningful word for the entire duration about the things that actually matter to people who live here.”

Victor Davis Hanson added some excellent color, but this was probably the best line on Biden:

"he doesn't care... he lives in an alternative reality."

*  *  *

Watch SOTU Live here...

*   *   *

Mises' Connor O'Keeffe, warns: "Be on the Lookout for These Lies in Biden's State of the Union Address." 

On Thursday evening, President Joe Biden is set to give his third State of the Union address. The political press has been buzzing with speculation over what the president will say. That speculation, however, is focused more on how Biden will perform, and which issues he will prioritize. Much of the speech is expected to be familiar.

The story Biden will tell about what he has done as president and where the country finds itself as a result will be the same dishonest story he's been telling since at least the summer.

He'll cite government statistics to say the economy is growing, unemployment is low, and inflation is down.

Something that has been frustrating Biden, his team, and his allies in the media is that the American people do not feel as economically well off as the official data says they are. Despite what the White House and establishment-friendly journalists say, the problem lies with the data, not the American people's ability to perceive their own well-being.

As I wrote back in January, the reason for the discrepancy is the lack of distinction made between private economic activity and government spending in the most frequently cited economic indicators. There is an important difference between the two:

  • Government, unlike any other entity in the economy, can simply take money and resources from others to spend on things and hire people. Whether or not the spending brings people value is irrelevant

  • It's the private sector that's responsible for producing goods and services that actually meet people's needs and wants. So, the private components of the economy have the most significant effect on people's economic well-being.

Recently, government spending and hiring has accounted for a larger than normal share of both economic activity and employment. This means the government is propping up these traditional measures, making the economy appear better than it actually is. Also, many of the jobs Biden and his allies take credit for creating will quickly go away once it becomes clear that consumers don't actually want whatever the government encouraged these companies to produce.

On top of all that, the administration is dealing with the consequences of their chosen inflation rhetoric.

Since its peak in the summer of 2022, the president's team has talked about inflation "coming back down," which can easily give the impression that it's prices that will eventually come back down.

But that's not what that phrase means. It would be more honest to say that price increases are slowing down.

Americans are finally waking up to the fact that the cost of living will not return to prepandemic levels, and they're not happy about it.

The president has made some clumsy attempts at damage control, such as a Super Bowl Sunday video attacking food companies for "shrinkflation"—selling smaller portions at the same price instead of simply raising prices.

In his speech Thursday, Biden is expected to play up his desire to crack down on the "corporate greed" he's blaming for high prices.

In the name of "bringing down costs for Americans," the administration wants to implement targeted price ceilings - something anyone who has taken even a single economics class could tell you does more harm than good. Biden would never place the blame for the dramatic price increases we've experienced during his term where it actually belongs—on all the government spending that he and President Donald Trump oversaw during the pandemic, funded by the creation of $6 trillion out of thin air - because that kind of spending is precisely what he hopes to kick back up in a second term.

If reelected, the president wants to "revive" parts of his so-called Build Back Better agenda, which he tried and failed to pass in his first year. That would bring a significant expansion of domestic spending. And Biden remains committed to the idea that Americans must be forced to continue funding the war in Ukraine. That's another topic Biden is expected to highlight in the State of the Union, likely accompanied by the lie that Ukraine spending is good for the American economy. It isn't.

It's not possible to predict all the ways President Biden will exaggerate, mislead, and outright lie in his speech on Thursday. But we can be sure of two things. The "state of the Union" is not as strong as Biden will say it is. And his policy ambitions risk making it much worse.

*  *  *

The American people will be tuning in on their smartphones, laptops, and televisions on Thursday evening to see if 'sloppy joe' 81-year-old President Joe Biden can coherently put together more than two sentences (even with a teleprompter) as he gives his third State of the Union in front of a divided Congress. 

President Biden will speak on various topics to convince voters why he shouldn't be sent to a retirement home.

According to CNN sources, here are some of the topics Biden will discuss tonight:

  • Economic issues: Biden and his team have been drafting a speech heavy on economic populism, aides said, with calls for higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy – an attempt to draw a sharp contrast with Republicans and their likely presidential nominee, Donald Trump.

  • Health care expenses: Biden will also push for lowering health care costs and discuss his efforts to go after drug manufacturers to lower the cost of prescription medications — all issues his advisers believe can help buoy what have been sagging economic approval ratings.

  • Israel's war with Hamas: Also looming large over Biden's primetime address is the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, which has consumed much of the president's time and attention over the past few months. The president's top national security advisers have been working around the clock to try to finalize a ceasefire-hostages release deal by Ramadan, the Muslim holy month that begins next week.

  • An argument for reelection: Aides view Thursday's speech as a critical opportunity for the president to tout his accomplishments in office and lay out his plans for another four years in the nation's top job. Even though viewership has declined over the years, the yearly speech reliably draws tens of millions of households.

Sources provided more color on Biden's SOTU address: 

The speech is expected to be heavy on economic populism. The president will talk about raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy. He'll highlight efforts to cut costs for the American people, including pushing Congress to help make prescription drugs more affordable.

Biden will talk about the need to preserve democracy and freedom, a cornerstone of his re-election bid. That includes protecting and bolstering reproductive rights, an issue Democrats believe will energize voters in November. Biden is also expected to promote his unity agenda, a key feature of each of his addresses to Congress while in office.

Biden is also expected to give remarks on border security while the invasion of illegals has become one of the most heated topics among American voters. A majority of voters are frustrated with radical progressives in the White House facilitating the illegal migrant invasion. 

It is probable that the president will attribute the failure of the Senate border bill to the Republicans, a claim many voters view as unfounded. This is because the White House has the option to issue an executive order to restore border security, yet opts not to do so

Maybe this is why? 

While Biden addresses the nation, the Biden administration will be armed with a social media team to pump propaganda to at least 100 million Americans. 

"The White House hosted about 70 creators, digital publishers, and influencers across three separate events" on Wednesday and Thursday, a White House official told CNN. 

Not a very capable social media team... 

The administration's move to ramp up social media operations comes as users on X are mostly free from government censorship with Elon Musk at the helm. This infuriates Democrats, who can no longer censor their political enemies on X. 

Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers tell Axios that the president's SOTU performance will be critical as he tries to dispel voter concerns about his elderly age. The address reached as many as 27 million people in 2023. 

"We are all nervous," said one House Democrat, citing concerns about the president's "ability to speak without blowing things."

The SOTU address comes as Biden's polling data is in the dumps

BetOnline has created several money-making opportunities for gamblers tonight, such as betting on what word Biden mentions the most. 

As well as...

We will update you when Tucker Carlson's live feed of SOTU is published. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 07:44

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