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S&P Futures Fall, “Panic Selling” In China As US-China Spat Escalates

S&P Futures Fall, "Panic Selling" In China As US-China Spat Escalates

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S&P Futures Fall, "Panic Selling" In China As US-China Spat Escalates Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2020 - 07:59

U.S. stock index futures fell and Chinese stocks tumbled on Friday following another escalation in tensions between the United States and China, and as Intel’s shares slumped after reporting a delay in a developing new chip technology. The dollar continued its slide on the back of euro and yen strength, while interest rates and gold were mostly unchanged.

Global stocks took a hit after Beijing ordered the Washington to close its consulate in the city of Chengdu, responding to a U.S. demand this week that China close its Houston consulate. Intel fell 12% premarket after the company said it was six months behind schedule in developing 7-nanometer chip technology and it would consider farming out more work to outside semiconductor foundries. Competitor Advanced Micro Devices gained 6% on Intel's woes. American Express dropped in pre-market trading after missing revenue estimates. FAAMGs stocks — Facebook, Amazon.com, Apple, Microsoft and Google — which were pivotal in driving the stock market’s recovery in recent months, slipped between 1.0% and 1.4% on Friday. 

On Thursday, the S&P 500 pulled back from a five-month high weighed down by losses in technology stocks, a surprise increase in U.S. jobless claims and Washington’s tug-of-war over stimulus measures. Senate Republicans will unveil their proposal next week for a fresh round of coronavirus aid, including more direct payments to Americans and a partial extension of enhanced unemployment benefits, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said on Thursday.

European equities also slumped, following a heavy session in Asia which saw Chinese stocks tumble 4%.

As Bloomberg reports, China’s traders, company insiders and overseas investors are all fleeing the country’s stock market. Sentiment is quickly souring amid the biggest threat to Beijing’s diplomatic ties with Washington in years. Traders based beyond mainland China sold more than $2.3 billion worth of Chinese stocks Friday, one of the largest ever outflows via Hong Kong’s exchange links. Some of China’s controlling tech shareholders are getting out as soon as they can. The CSI 300 Index fell 4.4% at the close, while the ChiNext Index dropped 6.1%, the most since Feb. 3. Losses accelerated in the afternoon after the Chinese foreign ministry said it ordered the U.S. to close its consulate in the southwestern city of Chengdu. The Trump administration earlier this week ordered the closure of a Chinese consulate in Houston. Overseas investors sold 16.4 billion yuan of China stocks Friday, the most since a record 17.4 billion yuan was dumped on July 14. Turnover rose to 1.3 trillion yuan, the 17th session over the 1 trillion yuan mark.

“Worries over China-U.S. relations will dominate the market,” said Raymond Chen, a portfolio manager with Keywise Capital Management (HK) Ltd. “People will be closely watching how the U.S. reacts to the closure of Chengdu consulate. I expect more panic selling in the near term.”

The Eurostoxx 600 dropped over 2% with tech, retailers and mining stocks posting sharp losses. Most equity indexes drop into the red for the week, brushing off broadly solid preliminary July PMI data, FTSE MIB underperforms at the margin. European market completely ignored the latest stronger than expected PMI data. As Globman notes, after a record, better-than-expected cumulative improvement of 34.8pt over May and June, the Euro area composite PMI improved further, by 6.3pt to 54.8 in July—notably above expectations—consistent with a continued positive impulse to economic activity from easier lockdown measures and the improvements in high-frequency data. Across sectors, the recovery was broad-based, and slightly stronger in services. The overall composition of the July PMIs was strong. New orders continued to improve amid firmer domestic and foreign demand. The German and French composite PMIs also registered larger-than-expected increases and rose comfortably above 50. Overall, the July PMIs indicate a continued, primarily demand-driven recovery in economic activity across the Euro area, with material positive growth in activity in July (but slower than in May and June).

Key numbers:

  • Euro Area Composite PMI (July, Flash): 54.8, exp. 51.1, last 48.5.
  • Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (July, Flash): exp. 50.1, last 47.4.
  • Euro Area Services PMI (July, Flash): 55.1, exp. 51.0, last 48.3.
  • Germany Composite PMI (July, Flash): 55.5, exp. 50.2, last 47.0.
  • France Composite PMI (July, Flash): 57.6, exp. 53.5, last 51.7.

Australian stocks sunk along with regional peers on US-China escalation. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.2% to close at 6,024.00.

In volatility, the VIX briefly snapped to a 28-handle while Europe's V2X sits at the week’s highs, just below a 27-handle.

In FX, the Japanese yen led G-10 currency gains amid a broad risk-off sentiment, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined, while bunds fell on signs that German activity was expanding. The euro and the pound are on track for their biggest weekly rise against the dollar since early June following encouraging economic data from Germany, the euro area and the U.K. China’s yuan fell as much as 0.28% to 7.0238 versus the greenback, the weakest since July 8.

In rates, haven seekers pushed Treasury 5-year yields to a record low and U.S. equity futures slipped following escalating US-China tensions. Trade has been choppy: Bund futures rally to highs for the week near  177.00, before fading the move through Thursday’s worst levels. China’s government bonds extended gains, with futures contracts on 10-year notes climbing as much as 0.36% to the highest since July 3. The yield on debt due in a decade dropped 5 basis points to 2.86%, the lowest since July 1.

In commodities, oil was flat while gold closed in on $1,900 an ounce, nearing its all-time intraday high. The dollar extended this week’s slide, and the offshore yuan dipped. Core European bonds fell after U.S. Treasuries turned lower.

On the economic calendar, Markit manufacturing and services PMI surveys are due at 9:45 a.m. ET, while new home sales data is expected at 10 a.m.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 3,211.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.9% to 366.44
  • MXAP down 0.9% to 165.19
  • MXAPJ down 1.8% to 542.36
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 22,751.61
  • Topix down 0.6% to 1,572.96
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.2% to 24,705.33
  • Shanghai Composite down 3.9% to 3,196.77
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 38,025.57
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.2% to 6,024.00
  • Kospi down 0.7% to 2,200.44
  • German 10Y yield unchanged at -0.48%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1612
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $43.46/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.3 bps to 0.858%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 0.33%
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $43.46/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,894.65
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.03% to 94.66

Top Overnight News

  • China retaliated to the U.S. decision to close its mission in Houston by ordering Washington to shut down its consulate in Chengdu, a key listening post for Tibet developments
  • The euro- area economy saw activity grow for the first time in five months in July, but soft demand means companies continue to reduce headcount
  • Banks haven’t sufficiently prepared for reforms to interest-rate benchmarks that underpin assets worth trillions of euros, the European Central Bank said
  • European Union governments are poised to approve a “coordinated package” of measures to support Hong Kong in the face of China’s new national-security legislation for the financial hub

APAC stocks traded lower across the board as the region took its cue from the losses on Wall Street, where the S&P snapped a four-day winning streak and the Nasdaq underperformed on the back of the sell-off in major tech stocks. Furthermore, Intel shares slumped 10% after-hours despite broadly positive earnings as its advanced 7-nanometre chip product transition faces a further delay, albeit competitor AMD soared 7.5% on the news.  Losses in Asia-Pac came ahead of the anticipated retaliatory announcement from China, where it confirmed it will be asking the US to close its consulate in Chengdu, as touted by sources. ASX 200 (-1.2%) was weighed on by the losses across its heavyweight miners and financials. KOSPI (-0.7%) took a breather from yesterday’s underperformance, and as new cases in South Korea continue to decline in pace. Hang Seng (-2.2%) was pressured by a number of large cap stocks in the red and with fears that the closure of the US consulate in Hong Kong is in China’s arsenal, although this would be akin to a nuclear option. Similarly. Shanghai Comp (-3.8%) underperformed as investors took chips off the table amid China’s retaliatory move, whilst experts cited by Global Times stated that Beijing could also consider a targeting strike such as expelling hundreds or more US diplomats in Mainland and Hong Kong,. As a reminder, Japanese markets were closed in observance of National Sports Day Holiday.

Top Asian News

  • Panic Selling Grips Chinese Stocks After U.S. Tensions Worsen
  • Glove Mania Boosts Malaysia Market Value to Challenge Singapore

European equities trade lower across the board (Eurostoxx 50 -1.5%) following a negative close on Wall Street yesterday, alongside heightening tensions between the US and China after China confirmed it will be asking the US to close the Chengdu consulate in response to the closure of the Chinese consulate in US. Furthermore, Europe is also being hampered by performance in tech names after Intel (-11.1% pre-market) reported after-hours yesterday. Despite financial metrics being broadly positive, disappointment was seen after reports that the Co.’s advanced 7-nanometre chip product transition faces a further delay. Given the above, a raft of broadly upbeat PMI prints from across the Eurozone have prompted only a modest pick-up in sentiment, with markets perhaps looking to the weeks/months ahead to determine if such readings are indicative of the recovery that is to come. Elsewhere in terms of sector-wide performance, telecom names are being weighed on by Vodafone (-5.2%) after the Co.’s Q1 sales fell short of expectations, whilst also announcing that it is targeting early 2021 for a Frankfurt listing of its mast business. Energy names are faring modestly better than peers, albeit still lower on the day with some reprieve being granted by slightly firmer energy prices and Equinor (+1.8%) after the Co. reported former than expected profits, supported by trading activities. Centrica (+20.0%) is the clear outperformer in the Stoxx 600 with the Co. announcing it is to propose the sale of Direct Energy to NRG Energy for USD 3.625bln in cash alongside H1 earnings.

Top European News

  • U.K. July Flash Composite PMI 57.1 Vs 47.7; Est 51.7
  • Vallourec Falls on Report That It Has Sought State Aid
  • ECB Weighs the Publication of Compounded ESTR Term Rates

In FX, the lack of Japanese involvement and potential export/corporate supply may be exacerbating the move, but risk aversion on well documented and familiar factors have prompted a more pronounced and widespread increase in demand for the safe-haven Yen. Indeed, Usd/Jpy has made a decisive break through 107.00, 106.67-65 recent lows and is now edging towards the round number below where support resides at 106.07 (June 23 base) ahead of stronger downside technical levels in the form of a double or tweezer bottom at 105.99 (consecutive troughs from May 6 and 7). Similarly, Eur/Jpy has reversed sharply from post-EU fiscal stimulus highs to the low 123.00 zone, as the single currency loses momentum generally.

  • EUR/GBP - Propped by better than expected and encouraging preliminary PMIs, including the German manufacturing sector returning from deep contraction to the threshold of expansion, but hampered on the other hand by broader risk-off sentiment and no progress on the Brexit trade front. Hence, the Euro is finding the altitude rare above 1.1600 against the Greenback and the Pound continues to struggle on the 1.2700 handle, albeit forming a firmer base above Cable’s 200 DMA (bang on the big figure today).
  • AUD/CAD/NZD - Further erosion from lofty peaks vs their US counterpart, as the DXY pares some losses from a new 2020 nadir between 94.569-810 parameters, with the Aussie sub-0.7100, Loonie back under 1.3400 and Kiwi near the bottom of a 0.6653-19 range. Little independent reaction to decent improvements in CBA PMIs or a narrower NZ trade surplus overnight, with the former somewhat marred by more COVID-19 cases in Victoria and the Aud also monitoring another YUAN retreat below 7.0000 after confirmation of Chinese consulate retaliation against the US.
  • EM - The aforementioned sour risk tone and rising virus infections are weighing on regional currencies, but the Rouble is deriving a degree of underlying support from Brent holding above Usd 43/brl awaiting the upcoming CBR rate call amidst expectations for a 50 bp reduction, but no guarantee after Governor Nabiullina intimated that a pause is possible following June’s ease to the current 4.5% ATH.

In commodities, WTI and Brent are firmer this morning in what appears to be a consolidation from some of the US hours downside given stimulus concerns and US-China tensions; albeit, the benchmarks still have some way to go to recapture yesterday’s decline. In terms of newsflow there is nothing fundamentally new for the complex, which has been the theme for the entirety of the week. On the docket for today we do have the weekly Baker Hughes rig count which may draw some attention but aside from that price action will likely follow, at least directionally, risk sentiment once again. This morning saw earnings from Equinor and in terms of their more qualitative commentary the CEO sees downward pressure on prices given OPEC easing their production cut quotas but ultimately continues to expect the market to achieve balance in 2022. For metals, the upside action for precious metals continues with gold and silver both firmer on the day aided by dollar downside. The yellow metal is yet to eclipse USD 1900/oz with the session high USD ~2/oz from this handle afterwhich just the all time high of USD 1921.75/oz lies as a possible sticking point.

US Event Calendar

  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52, prior 49.8
    • Markit US Services PMI, est. 51, prior 47.9
    • Markit US Composite PMI, prior 47.9
  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 700,000, prior 676,000
  • 10am: New Home Sales MoM, est. 3.55%, prior 16.6%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’m in the dog house today. As my golf club has now opened for outdoor dining I took Maisie on a lunch date yesterday and a rare hour away from the desk. She has missed their ice creams and was so excited about going back. I even bought her a pink putter to use on the practise green. We had a lovely lunch and by 1pm I was back at my desk. At 5pm my wife comes up to my study and says “how much ice cream did you give Maisie? She has been hyper all afternoon and I can’t control her. She’s being a nightmare”. I innocently replied that she ate 3 scoops. My wife said, “Jim, she’s only 4. She shouldn’t have more than one small scoop. Not 3 adult size ones. She’s still got so much sugar running through her veins. Thanks a lot”. I had no concept at the time although I did wonder why she kept on knocking the putts off the green.

It’s fair to say that US/Chinese relations continue to steer off the fairway and into the deep rough and US Secretary of State Pompeo speech last night didn’t help matters. In it the Secretary called on the Chinese people to change the direction of the ruling Communist Party. He also said that “a new alliance of democracies” should be made to push back against “the Chinese Communist Party’s designs on hegemony”. Overall the speech was fairly hawkish in nature. This came a few hours after it was reported that China is ‘set to shut US consulate’ in Chengdu (confirmed overnight). It is strategically important given American interest in Tibet and is seemingly in retaliation to the orders earlier this week to close the Chinese consulate in Houston.

Shortly after a draft of Pompeo speech was sent to major news networks, US risk assets started sliding, especially technology stocks. Remember that these were more sensitive to negative news flow during the trade war last year.

Today however, attention will turn to the flash PMIs for July, which will be one of the first indications of how different economies have performed in the month. Overnight we saw the numbers out from Australia, which showed a continued recovery with the services PMI printing at 58.5 (vs 53.1 last month) while manufacturing came in at 53.4 (vs. 51.2 last month) bringing the composite PMI to 57.9 (vs. 52.7 last month). In Europe and the US consensus expectations are that most of the PMIs will cross the crucial 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction, but of course this is following months of often severe contractions, so still a long way to go before we get back to where we were. A big focus will be on whether the US can hold up relative to Europe given the slowing down of reopenings in the former and the steady normalisation in the latter.

Asian markets are all trading lower this morning with Chinese bourses leading the declines amidst renewed tensions with the US. The Hang Seng (-1.83%), Shanghai Comp (-2.25%), CSI (-2.99%), Kospi (-0.66%) and Asx (-1.17%) are all down. Meanwhile, President Trump’s overnight statement that the trade deal with China “means less to me now than when I made it” is also appearing to weigh on sentiment. In a sign of risk off, the Japanese yen is up +0.43% this morning. Futures, on the S&P 500 are also down -0.46% after a tough close in the US. Elsewhere, Japan’s markets continue to remain closed for a holiday and Intel’s warning on a production delay also has seen an after-hours dip in the stock (-1.06%).

Ahead of Pompeo’s speech yesterday, risk assets ran out of steam on poor US data and then accelerated lower on weakness in Tech stocks. The S&P 500 dropped -1.23% from its post-pandemic high the previous day. It was the “Mega-cap” Tech stocks that led the declines, first on the US/China headlines and then took another leg lower later in the session, potentially on regulatory news. It was reported that Apple could be facing a multi-state consumer protection probe. Also the US House of Representatives panel is meeting next week (on July 27) to discuss Google (-3.07%), Facebook (-3.03%), Apple (-4.55%) and Amazon (-3.66%) on potential antitrust matters. The panel was prescheduled but the outcomes may have higher investor scrutiny now given recent outperformance of the complex. The underperformance of tech stocks saw the NASDAQ close down -2.29%, the largest retreat in nearly a month. A reminder that Apjit Walia, our Tech Strategist, published a report where he explores the upcoming tech cold war between the US and China (first touched upon in our latest Konzept magazine). This could cost the sector $3.5tn over the next five years in a full blown cold war. Link to new video here.

With the majority of the US loses coming later in the session, European equities survived with little change, with the STOXX 600 managing to eke out a +0.06% advance. Meanwhile, the DAX saw a miniscule -0.01% loss, but it still brought an end to a run of 10 successive sessions in which it had outpaced the STOXX 600.

Along with the ratcheting up of US-China tensions and the ensuing tech news, the mood among investors was further dampened by the initial weekly jobless claims from the US, which covered the week ending July 18. They showed an increase in claims to 1.416m (vs. 1.3m expected), marking the first time that weekly claims have risen since late March, bringing to an end a run of 15 successive declines. Certainly that’s a metric to watch out for given the resurgence of the virus in the US, and the increase will only add to concerns that the recent progress in reducing unemployment in the last couple of jobs reports is likely to slow in the months ahead. That said, we did get more positive news from the continuing claims for the previous week (ending July 11), which fell to 16.197m (vs. 17.1m expected), with the insured unemployment rate falling to 11.1%.

On the coronavirus, Florida reported a record 173 deaths yesterday as cases rose by 2.6%, which is under the 7-day 3.3% average but still represents over 10,000 new cases. Even in light of the pickup in fatalities and high absolute case rate, Governor DeSantis said there was no need to impose new restrictions, citing locally enacted mask and distancing measures. Meanwhile, California reported 5,975 new cases over the past 24 hours or a 2.9% increase, which is larger than the 2.5% 7-day average, indicating that the spread is still ongoing in the state even as they re-implemented some restrictions late last month. On the other hand, Arizona is likely seeing early returns on their restrictions as public-health experts in the state said the virus may have reached a peak. Cases rose by 1.3% vs. the 7-day average of 2.0% and the 7-day average of new cases has fallen from under 4000 per day to just over 2000 in the past week. Given the initial claims data worsening across the US, it will be important to watch which states can get the recent outbreak under control and how long it takes to do so. Elsewhere, Asian countries like Hong Kong, Japan, India and the Australian state of Victoria are also seeing worrying virus trends.

Sticking with the US, it looks like fiscal support may be a bit further away, as Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell said overnight that committee chairman and other Republicans would begin introducing components of their stimulus plan on Monday. This may mean the Fed decides it needs to do more of the lifting when it meets next week. In other details on the stimulus plan out overnight, instead of a payroll tax cut, the GOP will now back $1,200 checks for individuals who make as much as $75,000 a year, exactly as in the March stimulus bill.

Back to markets yesterday and in fixed income, the drop in risk sentiment saw 10yr Treasury yields fall a further -2.0bps to 0.577%, a 3-month low and just 3.7bps off its all-time record low back in March. In Europe there was yet another divergence between core and periphery following the agreement on the recovery fund. Notably, yields on 10yr Italian BTPs fell below 1% for the first time since the lockdown, and the spread of Italian (-6.2bps), Spanish (-2.0bps) and Portuguese (-2.9bps) 10yr yields over bunds all fell to 4-month lows.

Staying on Europe, the latest round of Brexit talks wrapped up yesterday on the UK and EU’s future relationship. However, it was clear from what both sides said afterwards that serious gaps remained between their respective positions. Judging by both statements, the two key sticking points continue to be the question of the level playing field, where the EU is seeking guarantees that the UK won’t undercut it with lower standards, along with fisheries. The UK’s chief negotiator David Frost said that “considerable gaps remain in the most difficult areas”, while the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier notably said that the UK’s “refusal to commit to conditions of open and fair competition and to a balanced agreement on fisheries” meant that “the UK makes a trade agreement at this point unlikely.”

With all that said, there were some promising signs, with indications that there’d been movement by both sides on the question of how a future agreement would be governed, as well as progress on the question of UK participation in EU programmes. The two sides have until the end of the year to finalise a deal, when the Brexit transition period finishes. In practice an agreement will likely be needed earlier than that, because of the ratification process that needs to occur. Barnier himself has previously put this effective deadline at the end of October, so it should be an eventful few months ahead.

In terms of the latest in the precious metals rally, gold advanced a further +0.86% yesterday in its 5th consecutive move upwards, reaching a fresh 8-year high of $1887/oz. Note that we’re now less than 1% away from the all-time closing high in nominal terms for gold of $1900/oz back in September 2011, with the intraday high of $1921/oz also reached that month. The rally ran out of steam elsewhere however, with silver down by -1.77%, and platinum (-0.47%) and palladium (-0.07%) also moving lower.

Finally, there wasn’t much in the way of other data yesterday. However, the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area in July unexpectedly fell back to -15.0 (vs. -14.7 in June), suggesting the rebound might not be as vigorous as expected. Over in the US meanwhile, the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index rose to 3 (vs. 5 expected).

Before the day ahead some advertising of some interesting recent DB research videos. Our APAC Economics team have received an unusually high number of questions about the future of the HKD peg in recent weeks. What's especially unusual is that market participants are concerned about devaluation of a currency that has been trading on the strong side of the convertibility band for most of the last four months. Video and report here from Michael Spencer, Head of APAC Research. Staying in APAC Yi Xiong, Chief China Economist, has published a report on how after a strong rebound in Q2, divergence across sectors will likely be the next main theme for China’s economy. Video and report here.

To the day ahead now, and the highlight is likely to be the aforementioned flash PMI readings. Otherwise, there’s UK retail sales out for June, Italy’s consumer confidence index for July, and US new home sales for June. Elsewhere, the Russian central bank will be making its latest monetary policy decision, while earnings highlights include Verizon, NextEra Energy, T-Mobile and American Express.

 

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“That 70s Show”

The hit TV series "That 70s Show" aired from 1998 to 2006 and focused on six teenage friends living in Wisconsin in the late 70s. The irony was that the…

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September 22, 2023

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The hit TV series “That 70s Show” aired from 1998 to 2006 and focused on six teenage friends living in Wisconsin in the late 70s. The irony was that the actors playing the teenagers were not born in the late 70s and had never experienced life during that period. Many alive today cannot fathom a lifestyle devoid of the internet, cable television, mobile phones, and social media. Oh…the horrors.

Yet, today, almost 50 years later, financial commentators, many of whom were not alive at the time, suggest that inflation and yields will repeat “That 70s Show.” Understandably, the increase in inflation and interest rates from their historic lows is cause for concern. As James Bullard noted, “Inflation is a pernicious problem,” which is why the Federal Reserve lept into action.

“When the US Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to quash inflation last year, it did so with the goal of avoiding a painful repeat of the 1970s, when inflation spun out of control and economic malaise set in.” – CNN

That concern of “spiraling inflation” remains the key concern of the Federal Reserve in its current monetary policy decisions. It has also pushed many economists to point back at history, using “That 70s Show” period as the yardstick for justifying their concerns about a resurgence of inflation.

“The chair of the Federal Reserve at the time, Arthur Burns, hiked interest rates dramatically between 1972 and 1974. Then, as the economy contracted, he changed course and started cutting rates.

Inflation later roared back, forcing the hand of Paul Volcker, who took over at the Fed in 1979, Richardson said. Volcker brought double-digit inflation to heel — but only by raising borrowing costs high enough to trigger back-to-back recessions in the early 1980s that at one point pushed unemployment above 10%.

‘If they don’t stop inflation now, the historical analogy [indicates] it’s not going to stop, and it’s going to get worse,’ said Richardson, an economics professor at the University of California, Irvine.”

However, such may be an oversimplification to suggest Burns was wrong and Volker was right. The reason is the economy today is vastly different than during “That 70s Show.”

Today Is Very Different Than The 1970s

During the 70s, the Federal Reserve was entrenched in an inflation fight. The end of the Bretton Woods and the failure of wage/price controls combined with an oil embargo sent inflation surging. That surge sent markets crumbling under the weight of rising interest rates. Ongoing oil price shocks, spiking food costs, wages, and budgetary pressures led to stagflation through the end of that decade.

What was most notable was the Fed’s inflation fight. Like today, the Fed is hiking rates to quell inflationary pressures from exogenous factors. In the late 70s, the oil crisis led to inflationary pressures as oil prices fed through a manufacturing-intensive economy. Today, inflation resulted from monetary interventions that created demand against a supply-constrained economy.

Such is a critical point. During “That 70s Show,” the economy was primarily manufacturing-based, providing a high multiplier effect on economic growth. Today, the mix has reversed, with services making up the bulk of economic activity. While services are essential, they have a very low multiplier effect on economic activity.

One of the primary reasons is that services require lower wage growth than manufacturing.

Wages vs Inflation

While wages did rise sharply over the last couple of years, such was a function of the economic shutdown, which created a supply/demand gap in the employment matrix. As shown, full-time employment as a percentage of the population fell sharply during the pandemic lockdown. However, with full employment back to pre-pandemic levels, wage growth declines as employers regain control over the labor balance.

Full Time Employees To Population

Furthermore, the economic composite of wages, interest rates, and economic growth remain highly correlated between “That 70s Show” and today. Such suggests that while inflation rose with the supply/demand imbalance created by the shutdown, the return to normalcy will lower inflation as economic activity slows.

Economic composite index vs Inflation

With a correlation of 85%, the inflationary decline will be coincident with economic growth, interest rates, and wages.

Economic composite correlation to inflation

Unlike “That 70s Show,” where economic growth and wages were rising steadily, which allowed for higher levels of interest rates and inflation, There is a singular reason why a repeat of that period is quite impossible.

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The Debt Burden And Economic Weakness

What is notable about “That 70s Show” is that it was the culmination of events following World War II.

Following World War II, America became the “last man standing.” France, England, Russia, Germany, Poland, Japan, and others were devastated, with little ability to produce for themselves. America found its most substantial economic growth as the “boys of war” returned home to start rebuilding a war-ravaged globe.

But that was just the start of it.

In the late ’50s, America stepped into the abyss as humankind took its first steps into space. The space race, which lasted nearly two decades, led to leaps in innovation and technology that paved the wave for the future of America.

These advances, combined with the industrial and manufacturing backdrop, fostered high levels of economic growth, increased savings rates, and capital investment, which supported higher interest rates.

Furthermore, the Government ran no deficit, and household debt to net worth was about 60%. So, while inflation increased and interest rates rose in tandem, the average household could sustain its living standard. The chart shows the difference between household debt versus incomes in the pre- and post-financialization eras.

income vs debt ratios

With the Government running a deep deficit with debt exceeding $32 trillion, consumer debt at record levels, and economic growth rates fragile, consumers’ ability to withstand higher inflation and interest rates is limited. As noted previously, the “gap” between income and savings to sustain the standard of living is at record levels. The chart shows the gap between the inflation-adjusted cost of living and the spread between incomes and savings. It currently requires more than $6500 of debt annually to fill the “gap.“

Consumer Spending Gap

It Is Not The Same

While the Fed is currently engaged “in the fight of its life,” trying to quell inflation, The economic differences are vastly different today. Due to the heavy debt burden, the economy requires lower interest rates to sustain even meager economic growth rates of 2%. Such levels were historically seen as “pre-recessionary,” but today, they are something economists hope to maintain.

Graph showing Economic growth by cycle with data from 1790 to 2020.

This is one of the primary reasons why economic growth will continue to run at lower levels. Such suggests we will witness an economy:

  • Subject to more frequent recessionary spats,
  • Lower equity market returns, and
  • A stagflationary environment as wage growth remains suppressed while the cost of living rises.

Changes in structural employment, demographics, and deflationary pressures derived from changes in productivity will magnify these problems.

While many want to suggest that the Federal Reserve is worried about “That 70s Show,” we would be lucky to have the economic strength to support such a concern.

The Fed’s bigger worry should be when the impact of higher rates causes a financial break in a debt-dependent financial system.

The post “That 70s Show” appeared first on RIA.

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Mapping The Migration Of The World’s Millionaires In 2023

Mapping The Migration Of The World’s Millionaires In 2023

Just like everyone else, High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) traveled less than usual…

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September 22, 2023

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Mapping The Migration Of The World's Millionaires In 2023

Just like everyone else, High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) traveled less than usual during the pandemic, and as a result their migration numbers trended downwards.

But, as Visual Capitalist's Avery Koops details below, millionaires and billionaires are on the move again and it is anticipated that 122,000 HNWIs will move to a new country by the end of the year.

Henley & Partners’ Private Wealth Migration Report has tracked the countries HNWIs have moved from and to over the last 10 years; this map showcases the 2023 forecasts.

In this context, HNWIs are defined as individuals with a net worth of at least $1 million USD.

The Countries Welcoming New Millionaires

The top 10 countries which are likely to become home to the highest number of millionaires and billionaires in 2023 are scattered across the globe, with Australia reclaiming its top spot this year from the UAE.

Here’s a closer look at the data:

Only two Asian countries make the top 10, with the rest spread across Europe, North America, and Oceania.

Despite historic economic challenges, Greece is projected to gain 1,200 High Net Worth Individuals this year. One reason could be the country’s golden visa program, wherein wealthy individuals can easily obtain residence and eventually EU passports for the right price—currently a minimum real estate investment cost of 250,000 euros is all that’s required.

Many of the leading millionaire destinations are attractive for wealthy individuals because of higher levels of economic freedom, allowing for laxer tax burdens or ease of investment. Singapore, which expects to gain 3,200 millionaires, is the most economically free market in the world.

The Countries Losing the Most Millionaires

China is anticipated to lose 13,500 High Net Worth Individuals this year, more than double as many as the second place country, India (6,500).

Here’s a closer look at the bottom 10:

In a number of these countries, strict regulatory bodies and corrupt governments can hinder the ease with which HNWIs can manage their own money.

In Russia, many wealthy individuals are facing personal tariffs and trade restrictions from Western countries due to the war in Ukraine. China’s crackdowns on Hong Kong have made it a less attractive place for business. And finally, the UK’s exit from the EU has caused many businesses and individuals to lose the easy movement of labor, finances, and investment that made operations across European borders seamless.

Some of these countries may still be adding homegrown millionaires and billionaires, but losing thousands of HNWIs to net migration does have a considerable economic impact.

Overall, millionaires are increasingly on the move. In the 10 years of reporting—despite a dip during the pandemic—the number of HNWIs moving away from their countries of origin has been growing every year.

Here’s a look at the numbers:

In a geopolitically fragile but more connected world, it’s no surprise to see millionaires voting with their feet. As a result, governments are increasingly in competition to win the hearts and minds of the world’s economic elite to their side.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 04:15

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A Comprehensive Timeline Of COVID-19 Vaccines And Myocarditis

A Comprehensive Timeline Of COVID-19 Vaccines And Myocarditis

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

2020

Sept….

Published

9 hours ago

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September 21, 2023

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A Comprehensive Timeline Of COVID-19 Vaccines And Myocarditis

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

2020

Sept. 22, 2020: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identifies myocarditis as an adverse event of special interest, or a potential side effect.

Oct. 30, 2020: U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) identifies myocarditis as an adverse event of special interest.

December 2020: One case of pericarditis reported to the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), which is co-managed by the CDC and FDA.

Dec. 11, 2020: FDA authorizes the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for Americans 16 and older.

Dec. 13, 2020: CDC launches V-safe, a new vaccine safety monitoring system, without including myocarditis as an option in the adverse events list.

Dec. 18, 2020: FDA authorizes the U.S. government-backed Moderna vaccine for Americans 18 and older.

2021

2021: Myocarditis cases spike in the U.S. military.

January 2021: 28 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS.

January 2021: First U.S. military member experiences postvaccination myocarditis, according to a study published months later.

January 2021: First cases of postvaccination myocarditis recorded in Israel.

January 2021: VAERS report processing is delayed due to unexpected spike in reports.

February 2021: 64 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including two deaths.

Feb. 1, 2021: Israeli teenager is hospitalized with myocarditis after Pfizer vaccination, doctors say.

Feb. 18, 2021: Safety signal for myocarditis triggered in VAERS using CDC-endorsed method called Proportional Reporting Ratio.

Feb. 19, 2021: Safety signal for myocarditis triggered in VAERS using another method called Fisher’s Exact Test.

Feb. 24–25, 2021: CDC meets with its advisers but does not discuss COVID-19 vaccines.

Feb. 27, 2021: FDA authorizes Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine.

Feb. 28, 2021: Israeli officials privately alert CDC to "a large number of reports of myocarditis, particularly in young people, following the administration of the Pfizer vaccine."

Feb. 28, 2021: 57 cases of myocarditis or pericarditis within seven days of vaccination in Pfizer's database in document given to the FDA in April 2021 and not revealed to the public until November 2021.

March 2021: 54 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS.

March 1, 2021: CDC officials disclose (pdf) that two postvaccination cases were identified in the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD), another CDC-run system.

March 2, 2021: CDC recommends Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine for adults.

March 3, 2021: Israeli authorities meet with hospital officials to discuss postvaccination heart problems.

March 4, 2021: Israeli officials confirm they're investigating postvaccination pericarditis.

March 5, 2021: FDA holds meeting with its advisers. Myocarditis is not discussed.

March 6, 2021: Rutgers University becomes first major US school to announce COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

March 8, 2021: Australian health officials contact CDC about U.S. myocarditis cases.

March 9, 2021: U.S. internal memorandum says Israel received around 40 reports of postvaccination myocarditis. U.S. officials say some postvaccination cases were reported in the United States and acknowledge issues with passive surveillance such as underreporting. "Thus, FDA has not made a final determination regarding the causality between myopericarditis and the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines," the memo stated.

March 20, 2021: First postvaccination myocarditis case report is published in the literature.

March 20, 2021: Pfizer contract with South Africa (pdf) says that "there may be adverse effects of the vaccine that are not currently known."

March 31, 2021: Second postvaccination myocarditis case report published.

March 31, 2021: First death from postvaccination myocarditis reported in Israel. The deceased was a 22-year-old previously healthy woman.

April 2021: 158 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS.

April 2021: CDC holds multiple public meetings with no discussion of myocarditis.

April 1, 2021: Israel has received 84 reports of postvaccination myocarditis or pericarditis, news outlet reports.

April 2, 2021: U.S. military officials, CDC meet on postvaccination myocarditis cases.

April 5, 2021: Israeli officials brief the CDC on postvaccination myocarditis cases.

April 5, 2021: Canada reports first case of postvaccination pericarditis.

April 7, 2021: U.S. government call covers myocarditis cases recorded in military members after vaccination.

April 10, 2021: CDC-funded Clinical Immunization Safety Assessment program reviewed postvaccination myocarditis cases, email shows.

April 12, 2021: U.S. military officials brief CDC on postvaccination myocarditis cases.

April 12, 2021: Canada reports first case of postvaccination myocarditis.

April 13, 2021: U.S. military has submitted manuscripts on myocarditis cases to two journals, CDC official says.

April 13, 2021: CDC, FDA advise pause in administration of Johnson & Johnson's vaccine due to six cases of blood clotting.

April 15, 2021: Two otherwise healthy adults hospitalized with chest pain and diagnosed with myocarditis after Moderna vaccination, CDC adviser tells agency.

April 17, 2021: CDC official tells adviser there have been reports of myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination "but we aren't observing any clear indication of a safety signal."

April 20, 2021: Three cases of myocarditis after second Pfizer dose in Idaho, official tells CDC.

April 23, 2021: United States lifts recommended pause on Johnson & Johnson's vaccine.

April 23, 2021: Israeli Ministry of Health report on postvaccination myocarditis identifies two deaths, Israeli media report. The second deceased was a previously healthy 35-year-old man. Among men aged 18 to 30, there is a one in 20,000 probability of developing myocarditis, the report found. "It seems that these events can be a signal of a possible connection to the vaccine," the committee said. The findings were sent to the FDA.

April 26, 2021: U.S. military officials are tracking 14 cases of myocarditis following messenger RNA vaccination, Military.com reports.

April 26, 2021: CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky says CDC "aware of" cases in the military. She says "we have not seen any reports of those" and that "we have not seen a signal" in CDC databases.

April 27, 2021: CDC officials privately acknowledge that processing of VAERS reports is "taking longer than usual."

April 27, 2021: CDC officials say 24 cases of myocarditis were identified in VSD.

April 27, 2021: U.S. military official warns that pausing administration of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines "will have an adverse impact on US/CA vaccination rates."

April 28, 2021: France detects safety signal for postvaccination myocarditis.

April 28, 2021: CDC director receives notes from discussion with military on myocarditis cases.

April 29, 2021: First cases of pericarditis after COVID-19 vaccination reported in the literature.

April 30, 2021: FDA receives Pfizer report noting myocarditis cases in Pfizer's database.

May 2021: 487 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including four deaths.

May 2021: CDC forms a team to review medical records for reported cases of postvaccination myocarditis.

May 5, 2021: CDC meets with advisers but doesn't discuss COVID-19 vaccines.

May 7, 2021: European Medicines Agency announces it has asked Pfizer for information on myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination.

May 10, 2021: FDA authorizes Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 12 to 15. It does not mention myocarditis.

May 12, 2021: Myocarditis is not discussed during meeting on Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine. Dr. Tom Shimabukuro, a CDC official, gives a presentation on blood clotting after Johnson & Johnson vaccination.

May 12, 2021: Dr. Walensky recommends Pfizer's vaccine for virtually all children aged 12 to 15, based on advice from advisers.

May 13, 2021: CDC officials told to direct questions on potential myocarditis cases to two top vaccine safety officials, Drs. John Su and Shimabukuro.

May 13, 2021: Same officials discuss analyzing VAERS data for myocarditis using the Proportional Reporting Ratio in heavily redacted emails. The agency says the analysis didn't actually start until 2022.

May 13, 2021: CDC adviser says "multiple people texting and email[ing] me with concerns" about myocarditis.

May 13, 2021: Children's National in Washington registers two suspected cases.

May 14, 2021: Dr. Shimabukuro seeks "experts in myocarditis."

May 16, 2021: CDC official says in email, "we are hearing quite a lot about this now, and I don't have a clear understanding of what is and has been being done."

May 17, 2021: CDC workgroup says there are "relatively few" reports of myocarditis after vaccination and that rates "have not differed from expected baseline rates."

May 17, 2021: Dr. Shimabukuro speaks with American Academy of Pediatrics officials to "centralize our coordination" with outside groups.

May 17, 2021: Dr. Su says health care providers "aren't reporting these cases to VAERS."

May 17, 2021: Dr. Su says the "myocarditis thing" is "exploding."

May 18, 2021: States across the U.S. publicly report cases of myocarditis following COVID-19 vaccination.

May 18, 2021: First case report of an American person with postvaccination myocarditis published.

May 19, 2021: CDC tells state officials it has been "closely monitoring" myocarditis and pericarditis after COVID-19 vaccination and that cases "can be serious."

May 20, 2021:  Three more cases of postvaccination myocarditis at Connecticut Children's Medical Center, official tells CDC.

May 20, 2021: CDC officials hold meeting with doctors from pediatric hospitals on myocarditis cases. Slides from the meeting were provided to The Epoch Times fully redacted.

May 23, 2021: The American Heart Association says the benefits of COVID-19 vaccination for everyone eligible "enormously outweigh the rare, possible risk of heart-related complications, including inflammation of the heart muscle."

May 24, 2021: CDC workgroup acknowledges for the first time that the number of reports of postvaccination myocarditis to VAERS was higher than expected in those 16 to 24.

May 24, 2021: French Society of Cardiology calls for vaccinating heart failure patients without acknowledging possible vaccine-myocarditis connection.

May 24, 2021: Massachusetts official asks CDC for "messaging" on postvaccination myocarditis.

May 25, 2021: Dr. Paul Offit, an FDA adviser, says about myocarditis and COVID-19 vaccines, "there’s every reason to think this isn’t a problem."

May 26, 2021: The New Zealand Medicines and Medical Devices Safety Authority says there's a safety signal for myocarditis and COVID-19 vaccines.

May 28, 2021: CDC says to keep vaccinating everyone eligible, or virtually all Americans 12 and older.

May 28, 2021: Case series of young, previously healthy males hospitalized with postvaccination myocarditis discloses hospitalizations happened as early as Jan. 30, 2021.

May 28, 2021: CDC says it is focusing on reported cases among those 30 and under.

May 28, 2021: Nine postvaccination myocarditis cases from one state not reported to VAERS, according to CDC.

May 30, 2021: Brighton Collaboration issues case definition for myocarditis.

June 2021: 752 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including five deaths.

June 2021: Some experts start calling on U.S. authorities to pause COVID-19 vaccination of young, healthy people.

June 2, 2021: Israel says "there is some probability for a possible link between the second vaccine dose and the onset of myocarditis among young men aged 16 to 30" after researchers find incidence of one in 3,000 to one in 6,000 men aged 16 to 24.

June 4, 2021: U.S. researchers report seven cases in healthy young males following Pfizer vaccination.

June 10, 2021: 99 cases of myocarditis/pericarditis detected in FDA's Biologics Effectiveness and Safety Initiative database, and 1,260 cases reported in Medicare claims data, FDA official says (pdf).

June 10, 2021: CDC working to rapidly follow up on reports of myocarditis following vaccination among people aged 30 and under, CDC official says (pdf). Most cases are in young adults after a second dose.

June 10, 2021: "There’s a lack of alternative explanations" apart from vaccination given the consistency across postvaccination cases, Dr. Cody Meissner, an FDA adviser, says.

June 10, 2021: "I think the myocarditis is something that needs to be looked at closely because we’re likely seeing the tip of the iceberg," says Dr. Michael Kurilla of the U.S. National Institutes of Health, another FDA adviser. June 10, 2021: Pfizer spokesperson tells news outlets that "the benefit-risk profile of our vaccine remains positive."

June 11, 2021: European Medicines Agency announces investigation into reports of myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination.

June 23, 2021: CDC’s safety committee says evidence now suggests a "likely association" of mRNA vaccination and myocarditis.

June 23, 2021: Number of myocarditis cases recorded in VSD rise to 75. Based on VAERS reports, CDC says number of events higher than expected after dose two in males aged 12 to 49 and females aged 12 to 29. Among children 12 to 17, 188 cases were reported within 21 days of vaccination through June 11. CDC advisers say data suggest vaccines cause myocarditis.

June 23, 2021: CDC estimates (pdf) Pfizer's vaccine will cause up to 69 myocarditis cases per million second doses but will prevent 215 hospitalizations and two deaths in males aged 12 to 17.

June 25, 2021: FDA adds warnings about "the suggested increased risks" of myocarditis and pericarditis to labels for the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines.

June 28, 2021: The U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs says privately it detected more myocarditis cases than expected.

June 29, 2021: Military researchers report 22 previously healthy members suffered myocarditis after receiving a messenger RNA vaccine. "The presentation pattern and clinical course suggest an association with an inflammatory response to vaccination," they say. The cases are among hundreds reported in the literature this month.

June 29, 2021: CDC officials say of reported cases that "the striking clinical similarities in the presentations of these patients, their recent vaccination with an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, and the lack of any alternative etiologies for acute myocarditis suggest an association with immunization."

June 30, 2021: Canada adds myocarditis and pericarditis risk information to labels of Moderna and Pfizer vaccines.

July 2021: 364 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including seven deaths.

July 3, 2021: 13 young males with postvaccination myocarditis treated at a single hospital in Washington state between April 1, 2021, and June 21, 2021, researchers report.

July 6, 2021: CDC estimates for every million doses of vaccination, dozens of cases of myocarditis can be expected, including 56 to 69 cases among 12- to 17-year-olds. The expected benefits outweigh the risks, though, according to the agency.

July 9, 2021: European Medicines Agency recommends listing myocarditis and pericarditis as side effects for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines after identifying 221 cases after mRNA vaccination. Five of the patients died.

July 10, 2021: South Korean researchers report a 22-year-old man was killed by vaccine-induced myocarditis, the first such death reported in the literature.

July 22, 2021: CDC says it confirmed 282 postvaccination myocarditis cases in people aged 18 to 29.

July 28, 2021: Pfizer tells FDA of "important identified risk" of myocarditis and pericarditis after vaccination and discloses 17 deaths among the cases reported.

July 30, 2021: Data mining does not show a signal for myocarditis among adolescents 12 to 17, CDC and FDA say.

July 31, 2021: Australian experts recommend people be informed about possibility of myocarditis and pericarditis following vaccination.

August 2021: 311 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including seven deaths.

Aug. 4, 2021: UK delays recommending second dose for 16- and 17-year-olds.

Aug. 10, 2021: 15 children hospitalized at Boston Children's Hospital with postvaccination myocarditis between May 1 and July 15, 2021, researchers say.

Aug. 13, 2021: Canada identifies a safety signal for postvaccination myocarditis.

Aug. 17, 2021: Death of 27-year-old man following myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination reported by U.S. researchers. Family declined an autopsy. No non-vaccination causes identified.

Aug. 18, 2021: U.S. researchers report death of 42-year-old man with myocarditis following Moderna vaccination. No other causes identified.

Aug. 18, 2021: Dr. Walensky and other U.S. government officials call for COVID-19 vaccine boosters to be cleared due to waning effectiveness.

Aug. 19, 2021: Two deaths from myocarditis following Pfizer vaccination, Pfizer reports to the EMA.

Aug. 19, 2021: Dr. Walensky notified of UK preference for Pfizer over Moderna for adolescents.

Aug. 23, 2021: FDA approves Pfizer's vaccine for people 16 and older. Approval theoretically has a higher bar than authorization. The agency says that analyses of reported events "will not be sufficient to assess known serious risks of myocarditis and pericarditis."

Aug. 24, 2021: South Korean authorities determine a young man died from myocarditis after Pfizer vaccination.

Aug. 30, 2021: One myocarditis case and one pericarditis case occurred among vaccinated trial participants, Pfizer reveals.

Aug. 30, 2021: Of 742 reports in VAERS that met the CDC case definition of myocarditis or myopericarditis after vaccination, 701 patients required hospitalization and 18 are still hospitalized, CDC official reports (pdf). Twenty-three percent of patients whose cases were detailed in VAERS reports were not known to have recovered at the time of the report.

Aug. 30, 2021: Highest rate of reported myopericarditis cases within seven days of a shot was 71.5 cases per million second Pfizer doses among boys aged 16 or 17, according to the CDC.

Aug. 30, 2021: Myocarditis and pericarditis cases in VSD rise to 115, with some patients still experiencing symptoms, CDC official says (pdf).

Aug. 30, 2021: Benefits of Pfizer's vaccine continue to outweigh the risks, CDC officials say. They estimate every million Pfizer shots among 16- to 17-year-olds will cause 73 cases of myocarditis but prevent more hospitalizations.

Aug. 30, 2021: Woman who died in New Zealand after Pfizer vaccination perished from myocarditis, an independent safety panel said.

September 2021: 377 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including 10 deaths.

Sept. 2, 2021: 654 reports of myocarditis or pericarditis in Pfizer's safety database, company says. Seventy-seven reports of myocarditis or myocarditis and pericarditis in Moderna's safety database, company says. Some patients, including a young male, died or had not recovered.

Sept. 2, 2021: Based on the reports and other data, a causal association between myocarditis/pericarditis and the mRNA vaccines is "considered of at least a reasonable possibility," the European Medicines Agency says.

Sept. 3, 2021: 67 myocarditis/pericarditis cases recorded in VSD among people aged 12 to 39, CDC says.

Sept. 8, 2021: Healthy, young boys face a higher risk of cardiac events from vaccines than from COVID-19, U.S. researchers find.

Sept. 9, 2021: U.S. President Joe Biden and his administration announce COVID-19 vaccine mandates for tens of millions of Americans, including many young, healthy people.

Sept. 15, 2021: Hong Kong changes recommendation from two doses of Pfizer to one dose after spike in myocarditis cases.

Sept. 17, 2021: Excess myocarditis risk for vaccinated males aged 16 or 17 "approaching 200 cases per million," FDA discloses, based on data from Optum health care claims database.

Sept. 21, 2021: "A clear signal for vaccine associated myocarditis has emerged," U.S. doctors say.

Sept. 22, 2021: One case of myocarditis reported after Pfizer booster, CDC official says. Not possible to determine the risk of rare side effects like myocarditis after boosting, CDC safety committee says.

Sept. 22, 2021: V-safe does not collect information on myocarditis, CDC official admits.

Sept. 22, 2021: FDA authorizes a Pfizer booster for millions of Americans.

Sept. 23, 2021: CDC officials say they don't know how many cases of myocarditis booster shots will cause. They project up to 26 cases per million boosters in 18- to 29-year-olds, but say more COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations would be prevented.

Sept. 24, 2021: CDC recommends Pfizer's booster for certain populations.

Sept. 27, 2021: New Zealand expert tells CDC it "seems to make huge sense to me" to delay second doses for young people.

Sept. 28, 2021: Pfizer vaccine may have "played a role" in death of 15-year-old California boy who died after receiving shot, medical examiner tells CDC.

Sept. 29, 2021: CDC meets on non-COVID vaccines.

Sept. 30, 2021: CDC falsely tells California officials that reports of postvaccination myocarditis did not come until June 2021.

October 2021: 321 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including five deaths.

Oct. 4, 2021: Identification of postvaccination myocarditis cases "does not change clinical decision-making," JAMA Internal Medicine editors say.

Oct. 7, 2021: Norway, Finland, and Sweden suspend use of Moderna's vaccine for younger people due to myocarditis risks.

Oct. 8, 2021: Iceland suspends use of Moderna's vaccine due to the heart inflammation.

Oct. 11, 2021: CDC director briefed on how Nordic countries are limiting vaccination due to myocarditis.

Oct. 12, 2021: Secret U.S. government meeting considering counting post-infection immunity as one or more vaccine doses ends with no update.

Oct. 14, 2021: FDA says more myocarditis/pericarditis cases have been reported to its Biologics Effectiveness and Safety Initiative system.

Oct. 21, 2021: The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs has identified 7 post-vaccination myocarditis cases, CDC publicly discloses, but no signal was established and all cases resolved.

Oct. 21, 2021: Highest rate of myocarditis following vaccination, based on VAERS data, is 69.1 cases per million second shots among males aged 16 or 17, Dr. Su says (pdf).

Oct. 21, 2021: About a quarter of cases in people 29 or younger reviewed in VAERS were not known to have recovered, according to available data, with 19 still hospitalized.

Oct. 21, 2021: Analyses of VSD data "indicate that both Pfizer and Moderna are associated with increased risk of myocarditis/pericarditis in 12–39-year-olds," Kaiser Permanente doctor says (pdf). Myocarditis/pericarditis cases in VSD rise to 138, with rates higher after Moderna vaccination compared to Pfizer vaccination.

Oct. 21, 2021: CDC says tens of millions of Americans should get a Pfizer or Moderna booster.

Oct. 22, 2021: Rates of reported cases among males aged 18 to 24 approximately 139 per million after Moderna second dose and 43 per million after Pfizer second dose, French researchers say.

Oct. 22, 2021: Norway says adolescents can't get second doses of Pfizer's vaccine.

Oct. 26, 2021: FDA says benefits of vaccination outweigh the risks. Projection of harm is highest for 16- and 17-year-old males, at 196 postvaccination myocarditis/pericarditis cases, and 171 myocarditis/pericarditis hospitalizations per million doses.

Oct. 26, 2021: CDC cardiologist Dr. Matthew Oster says "we don't know a whole lot" about myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination. "We really need to see what the long-term outcomes for these kids will be," he added later.

Oct. 26, 2021: Dr. Michael Nelson, an FDA vaccine adviser, says he's concerned that some cases of postvaccination myocarditis aren't being reported.

Oct. 26, 2021: Dr. Eric Rubin, another FDA adviser, says "we’re never going to learn about how safe this vaccine is unless we start giving it."

Oct. 27, 2021: World Health Organization says the mRNA vaccines likely cause myocarditis.

Oct. 27, 2021: Prevalence of postvaccination myocarditis may be underestimated due to its reliance on symptoms for diagnosis, researchers say.

Oct. 28, 2021: Dr. Su says myocarditis reported after COVID-19 vaccination "has been neither severe nor persistent ... however, we'll need to wait to see if longer-term complications arise." He also says CDC does not know what percent of cases became chronic.

Oct. 29, 2021: FDA authorizes Pfizer's vaccine for children aged 5 to 11 despite dearth of efficacy data.

Oct. 30, 2021: Seventeen myocarditis patients seen at a single facility in Switzerland between March and July 2021, researchers report (pdf).

Oct. 31, 2021: FDA delays decision on approving Moderna's vaccine for children.

November 2021: 267 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including six deaths.

Nov. 1, 2021: Dr. Su says in email that "we're all doing our part to build confidence" in COVID-19 vaccines.

Nov. 1, 2021: English researchers estimate vaccinating children aged 12 to 17 will prevent 230 to 4,590 COVID-19 hospitalizations while causing 160 cases of myocarditis requiring hospitalization.

Nov. 1, 2021: Seven patients still had symptoms about a month after being diagnosed with myocarditis, U.S. researchers report.

Nov. 2, 2021: Nine deaths with myocarditis reported among people 29 and younger in VAERS. Most deaths had at least one potential non-vaccination cause while evaluation of two was still ongoing, CDC official says (pdf).

Nov. 2, 2021: Of postvaccination myocarditis patients who received cardiac MRIs, 72 percent had abnormal results, official says. Of patients who responded to CDC survey, 48 percent reported symptoms persisting after three months.

Nov. 2, 2021: Rates of myocarditis after Pfizer vaccination in children aged 5 to 11, if cleared, is unknown, CDC says (pdf). Rates in those 12 to 15 are as high as 108.5 per million second doses among males.

Nov. 2, 2021: CDC recommends virtually all children aged 5 to 11 receive a Pfizer series.

Nov. 3, 2021: 18-year-old previously healthy woman dies after COVID-19 vaccination with fulminate myocarditis, Washington state officials tell CDC. They attribute the myocarditis to asymptomatic COVID-19. Family declined an autopsy at one facility and King County Medical Examiner's Office says it did not perform an autopsy due to "social and complex" reasons.

Nov. 8, 2021: France halts Moderna's vaccine for people under 30.

Nov. 16, 2021: UK recommends second dose for 16- and 17-year-olds.

Nov. 18, 2021: Reported cases of myocarditis as high as 117 per million after doses of Moderna, and 47 per million doses of Pfizer, among males aged 18 to 29, German researchers say.

Nov. 19, 2021: Lower rates of myocarditis reported to VAERS after booster doses, CDC official says (pdf). Fifty-four reports were lodged, with some people not known to have recovered.

Nov. 19, 2021: CDC enables all adults to receive a booster of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.

Nov. 23, 2021: Between Dec. 27, 2020 and Sept. 3, 2021, 113 patients with suspected myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination presented to a single practice, German researchers report.

Nov. 26, 2021: Six people were reported to have died with myocarditis or pericarditis after Pfizer vaccination, the Netherlands Pharmacovigilance Centre Lareb reports. Other causes were found for two of the deaths.

Nov. 28, 2021: Hong Kong researchers find rate of 212 myocarditis cases among 12- to 17-year-old males per million Pfizer second doses.

Nov. 28, 2021: Three verified cases of post-booster myocarditis, CDC discloses in private emails.

Nov. 29, 2021: UK recommends second dose for 12 to 15-year-olds.

December 2021: 304 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including five deaths.

Dec. 1, 2021: 22-year-old woman spent 74 days in hospital with myocarditis after AstraZeneca vaccination, South Korean researchers report.

Dec. 2, 2021: European Medicines Agency says safety signal confirmed for postvaccination myocarditis.

Dec. 2, 2021: Israeli researchers estimate 106.9 myocarditis cases per million vaccinated males aged 16 to 29.

Dec. 9, 2021: FDA authorizes booster doses for 16- and 17-year-olds.

Dec. 9, 2021: CDC says 16- and 17-year-olds should get a booster shot. It does not mention myocarditis.

Dec. 14, 2021: 114 vaccinated people had myocarditis listed as a cause of death on their death certificate, English researchers report.

Dec. 16, 2021: Eight cases of myocarditis among children aged 5 to 11 confirmed, including one in a 6-year-old male, CDC official says.

Dec. 18, 2021: 26-year-old New Zealand man's death ruled as being caused by vaccine-induced myocarditis following an autopsy.

Dec. 25, 2021: Males under 40 face an excess risk of 101 cases per million second doses, UK researchers find.

Dec. 27, 2021: Incidence of myocarditis among males 12 to 39 is 195.4 per million second doses among males aged 12 to 39, U.S. researchers estimate. They identify cases missed by the CDC.Dec. 28, 2021: Risk of myocarditis much higher from Moderna's vaccine compared with Pfizer's shot, Canadian officials report.

Dec. 30, 2021: 21 patients with myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination admitted to a single center between Dec. 15, 2020, and June 15, 2021, U.S. researchers report.

Dec. 30, 2021: 14-year-old hospitalized with shock after Pfizer vaccination, Moroccan doctors say.

2022

Jan. 3, 2022: Non-vaccine causes of death ruled out in death of 57-year-old New Zealand woman who experienced myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination, researchers report.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/21/2023 - 22:20

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