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S&P 500 Dead Cat Bounce – Smelling FOMC Outcome
S&P 500 made a dead cat bounce mixed with an intraday short squeeze, and given likely rise in yields (10y … Read more

S&P 500 made a dead cat bounce mixed with an intraday short squeeze, and given likely rise in yields (10y back above 4.33%) and muted HYG, I favor a slow decline to prevail today. Not that FOMC positioning would need to be overly bearish, but odds are yesterday‘s advance-decline line or volume status is likely to catch up with stocks some more today, especially given my immediate take on housing preceded by an Intraday Signals ES call. If it weren‘t to, we would have seen a much better European session showing, which isn‘t clearly the case with DAX slightly negative, and more.
Hence, it‘s up to the early Friday confirmed turn in gold, and continued consolidation with a bullish medium-term bias in oil, that remain the easiest trades, together with a patient ES, NDX short waiting for more downside later in Sep and beginning Oct (seasonal tendencies supported e.g. by the turn in global liquidity, however modest).
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
4,515 stopped the advance yesterday (my first resistance support given in premium analysis yesterday) while I didn‘t take the possibility of a run to 4,532 second level resistance seriously. Reconsidering following yesterday‘s rejection at 4,489 (probably this is the level on the way down, and not 4,492 or 4,485 anymore), this area will be more than nibbed at during today‘s session, which of course requires HYG below $74.62 and 10y yield above 4.34%.
The journey to the next support – 4,465 – is still long, and the Fed‘s not really hawkish stance tomorrow is likely to result in a reflexive stock market upswing first (without changing bearish rationale down the road).
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Monica Kingsley
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice.
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bonds sp 500 nasdaq stocks bitcoin gold oilUncategorized
SEC initiates legal action against FTX’s auditor
The SEC alleges that Prager Metis, an accounting firm engaged by bankrupt crypto exchange FTX in 2021, committed hundreds of violations related to auditor…

The SEC alleges that Prager Metis, an accounting firm engaged by bankrupt crypto exchange FTX in 2021, committed hundreds of violations related to auditor independence.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has commenced legal proceedings against an accounting firm that had provided services to cryptocurrency exchange FTX before its bankruptcy declaration.
According to a Sept. 29 statement, the SEC alleged that accounting firm Prager Metis provided auditing services to its clients without maintaining the necessary independence as it continued to offer accounting services. This practice is prohibited under the auditor independence framework.

To prevent conflicts of interest, accounting and audit tasks must be kept clearly separate. However, the SEC claims that these entwined activities spanned over a period of approximately three years:
“As alleged in our complaint, over a period of nearly three years, Prager’s audits, reviews, and exams fell short of these fundamental principles. Our complaint is an important reminder that auditor independence is crucial to investor protection.”
While the statement doesn't explicitly mention FTX or any other clients, it does emphasize that there were allegedly "hundreds" of auditor independence violations throughout the three-year period.
Furthermore, a previous court filing pointed out that the FTX Group engaged Metis to audit FTX US and FTX at some point in 2021. Subsequently, FTX declared bankruptcy in November 2022.
The filing alleged that since former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried publicly announced previous FTX audit results, Metis should have recognized that its work would be used by FTX to bolster public trust.
Related: FTX founder’s plea for temporary release should be denied, prosecution says
Concerns were previously reported about the material presented in FTX audit reports.
On Jan. 25, current FTX CEO John J. Ray III told a bankruptcy court that he had “substantial concerns as to the information presented in these audited financial statements.”
Furthermore, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Ron Wyden raised concerns about Prager Metis' impartiality. They argued that it functioned as an advocate for the crypto industry.
Meanwhile, a law firm that provided services to FTX has come under scrutiny in recent times.
In a Sept. 21 court filing, plaintiffs allege that U.S. based law firm, Fenwick & West, should be held partially liable for FTX's collapse because it reportedly exceeded the norm when it came to its service offerings to the exchange.
However, Fenwick & West asserts that it cannot be held accountable for a client's misconduct as long as its actions remain within the bounds of the client's representation.
Magazine: Blockchain detectives: Mt. Gox collapse saw birth of Chainalysis
cryptocurrency blockchain crypto cryptoUncategorized
DOJ readies witnesses in Bankman-Fried trial, highlights FTX asset management
The DOJ intends to highlight the experiences of retail and institutional clients who entrusted substantial assets to FTX.
The Department…

The DOJ intends to highlight the experiences of retail and institutional clients who entrusted substantial assets to FTX.
The Department of Justice (DOJ) has confirmed its intention to summon former FTX clients, investors and staff as witnesses in the upcoming trial involving Sam Bankman-Fried, the former FTX CEO.
The DOJ submitted a letter motion in limine on Sept. 30 describing the witnesses it intends to call concerning FTX’s treatment of customer assets.
The testimonies intend to provide perspectives on the interactions between the accused and the witnesses. It also aims to get the witnesses’ understanding of Bankman-Fried’s remarks and conduct, particularly regarding FTX’s asset management. The DOJ intends to highlight the experiences of retail and institutional clients who entrusted substantial assets to FTX, believing that the platform would safeguard them securely.

Furthermore, a situation has emerged concerning one of the DOJ’s witnesses, “FTX Customer-1,” who resides in Ukraine. Given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, traveling to the U.S. to provide testimony is associated with difficulties. The DOJ has suggested using video conferencing as a viable alternative. However, Bankman-Fried’s defense has not yet approved this proposal.
Nonetheless, the legal team representing Bankman-Fried, led by lawyer Mark Cohen, has voiced concerns about the jury questions put forth by the DOJ. According to Bankman-Fried’s defense, these interrogations insinuate guilt on Bankman-Fried’s part, potentially undermining the principle of “innocent until proven guilty.“
Additionally, the defense contends that these inquiries may not effectively uncover the jurors’ inherent biases, especially related to their encounters with cryptocurrencies. Moreover, specific questions could inadvertently guide the jury’s perspective instead of eliciting authentic insights, possibly compromising the trial’s impartiality.
Related: Sam Bankman-Fried’s lawyer challenges US gov’t proposed jury questions
With the jury selection scheduled to start on Oct. 3, closely followed by the trial, the spotlight is firmly on this high-stakes legal confrontation. This case underscores not only its immediate consequences but also underscores the vital importance of transparent communication and unbiased questioning in upholding the principles of justice.
Magazine: Deposit risk: What do crypto exchanges really do with your money?
crypto cryptoUncategorized
Vitalik Buterin voices concerns over DAOs approving ETH staking pool operators
The Ethereum co-founder proposes a solution that could lower the likelihood of any individual liquid staking provider growing to a point where it poses…

The Ethereum co-founder proposes a solution that could lower the likelihood of any individual liquid staking provider growing to a point where it poses a systemic risk.
Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, has expressed worries regarding decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) exerting a monopoly over the selection of node operators in liquidity staking pools.
In a September 30 blog post, Buterin issues a warning that as staking pools adopt the DAO approach for governance over node operators—who are ultimately responsible for the pool's funds—it can expose them to potential risks from malicious actors.
“With the DAO approach, if a single such staking token dominates, that leads to a single, potentially attackable governance gadget controlling a very large portion of all Ethereum validators.”
Buterin highlights the liquid staking provider Lido (LDO) as an example with a DAO that validates node operators. However, he emphasizes that relying on just one layer of protection may prove insufficient:
“To the credit of protocols like Lido, they have implemented safeguards against this, but one layer of defense may not be enough,” he noted.

Meanwhile, he explains that Rocket Pool offers the opportunity for anyone to become a node operator by placing an 8 Ether (ETH) deposit, which, at the time of this publication, is equivalent to approximately $13,406.
However, he notes this comes with its risks. "The Rocket Pool approach allows attackers to 51% attack the network, and force users to pay most of the costs," he stated.
On the other hand, Buterin highlights that having a mechanism to ascertain who can act as the underlying node operators is an inevitable necessity:
"It can't be unrestricted, because then attackers would join and amplify their attacks with users' funds."
Related: Ethereum is about to get crushed by liquid staking tokens
Buterin further outlines that a possible approach to address this issue involves encouraging ecosystem participants to utilize a variety of liquid staking providers.
He clarifies this would decrease the likelihood of any one provider becoming excessively large and posing a systemic risk.
“In the longer term, however, this is an unstable equilibrium, and there is peril in relying too much on moralistic pressure to solve problems," he stated.
Magazine: Are DAOs overhyped and unworkable? Lessons from the front lines
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