Bitcoin looks set for a fall as a surging U.S. dollar sparks suspicion based on an equally grim macro picture.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in an uncertain place facing uncertain times — is $40,000 now resistance?
The largest cryptocurrency has just closed a fourth red weekly candle in a row, something that has not happened since June 2020.
As cold feet over the macro market outlook continues to be the norm, there seems little to comfort bulls as the week gets underway — and Bitcoin is not done selling off yet.
On the back of $4,000 in losses over the past four days alone, price targets now focus on retests of liquidity levels further towards $30,000.
It is not all doom and gloom — long-term hodlers and key participants such as miners are showing a more positive stance when it comes to Bitcoin as an investment.
With that in mind, Cointelegraph takes a look at the forces at work when it comes to shaping BTC price action in the coming days.
Asia woes overtake French election relief
The key external event for risk assets at the start of the week is the French election, this being won by incumbent Emmanuel Macron.
A sigh of relief for market players concerned about a surprise victory from far-right rival Marine Le Pen, Macron’s second term is expected to lift French stocks in particular on Monday’s open and the embattled euro along with them.
The European Union, much like the United States, faces a potent cocktail of inflation and plummeting bond markets, with the European Central Bank (ECB) nonetheless not yet taking decisive steps to raise interest rates or reduce its near $10 trillion balance sheet.
Bitcoin was unmoved at the Macron victory, and risk assets are already contending with an Asia downturn on Monday as Coronavirus in China rattles sentiment.
The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong is down 3.5% on the day so far, while the Shanghai Composite has shed 4.2%.
With crypto en masse heavily correlated to stock market movements currently, a repeat performance by Europe and the United States would produce clear directional cues.
“The worry is the current policy support that the government has already put in place may not be effective because of the Covid policies as activities are subdued,” Jenny Zeng, co-head of Asia Pacific fixed income at global asset management firm AllianceBernstein, told Bloomberg.
Even before Monday’s losses, the past week was already painful for equities, as noted by markets commentator Holger Zschaepitz.
“Global stocks lost $3.3tn in mkt cap this wk as US equities – after peaking Thur morning – experienced steady fall lower as investors seem to reconsider why they have been buying risk assets in world filled w/so much uncertainty,” he told Twitter users Sunday.
“Global stocks worth $107.6tn, equal to 127% of GDP.”
Bloomberg global stock market cap chart. Source: Holger Zschaepitz/ Twitter
A further post flagged the so-called Buffett Indicator — the ratio of total U.S. stock market valuation to GDP — still being in what he called “problematic” territory at over 100%.
Dollar strength is back with a vengeance
One component of the macro landscape firmly in bullish mode — to the chagrin of crypto traders — is the U.S. dollar.
The U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), after wobbling at two-year highs last week, now looks to be continuing its uptrend.
At 101.61 at the time of writing, DXY is challenging its performance from March 2020, when the Coronavirus crash sent assets worldwide tumbling.
Dollar strength has rarely been a boon for Bitcoin, and the inverse correlation, while criticized by some, appears to be firmly in control this month.
BTC/USD 1-week candle chart vs. U.S. dollar currency index (DXY). Source: TradingView
"Looks like the DXY dev announced a token burn or something," popular trader Crypto Ed joked in response to the latest move.
For Preston Pysh, host of the Investor's Podcast Network, something does not seem right.
"We got the BoJ implementing Yield Curve Control while the Yen is collapsing and we have the FED about to hike 50bps while the dollar is making new highs," he warned Monday.
"Something sure feels like it’s about to break…"
Weekly chart prints fourth straight red candle
Bitcoin is looking anything but rosy this Monday. While the weekend managed to avoid significant volatility, the weekly close still disappointed, coming in at just under last week’s level.
Popular analyst Cheds, author of Trading Wisdom, meanwhile eyed a potential crossing under the 200-period moving average on the three-day chart.
This would be significant, he argued over the weekend, as the last time that this happened after a bull run was the bear market bottom of 2018.
“Not a prediction just an observation,” he cautioned.
On the topic of December 2018 and its $3,100 floor, Matthew Hyland, known as Parabolic Matt on Twitter, produced further comparisons between that period and current BTC price action.
On longer timeframes, he said, holding $37,600 is now “crucial.”
#Bitcoin comparison of the 2018/2019 Bear Market Bottom compared to the current structure BTC has been in since January of this year
✅Similar Time Frame ✅Series of Lower Highs and Higher Lows ✅Creation of a higher high ✅Pullback after first higher high
“Looking for that sweep down, at which point i will then be looking for signs of a relief rally to play off from,” fellow Twitter pundit Crypto Tony meanwhile added Monday as part of his own analysis.
Hodlers put in a new record
The “choppy” nature of lower timeframe price action on Bitcoin makes it an uninspiring trade for anyone but the most experienced players.
As such, it is perhaps little surprise that the majority of hodlers are choosing to stay hands-off and do what they do best.
That is now reflected in on-chain data, which shows that the proportion of the Bitcoin supply that has stayed dormant for at least a year is now at all-time highs.
Citing figures from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, economist Jan Wuestenfeld noted that this translates to the supply more broadly becoming “older” — proportionally, more coins are being hodled for longer rather than spent.
According to Glassnode, the supply now dormant for a year or more has broken 64% for the first time on record.
The percentage of the #Bitcoin supply last active 1+ years ago just crossed 64% for the first time ever! The percentage of old coins continues to trend up. ↗️ pic.twitter.com/Zyj0hyqFti
HODL Waves, a Glassnode indicator showing hodled coins of all ages, meanwhile confirms the trend. Since December 2021, the 1-2 year supply slice has increased more than any other — from under 10% then to nearly 15% as of this week.
The 3-5 year band of hodled coins also increased its presence in Q1.
Bitcoin HODL Waves chart. Source: Unchained Capital
Fundamentals still point to the moon
It is not just casual steadfast hodlers who are stubbornly refusing to reduce their BTC exposure despite the grim outlook.
A look at Bitcoin’s network fundamentals shows that miners are also anything but bearish when it comes to investing.
A frequent story this year but nonetheless an impressive one given that price is moving in the opposite direction, Bitcoin’s network hash rate and difficulty are both due to make new all-time highs this week.
Depending on price performance, difficulty should adjust up by around 2.9% in two days’ time, setting a new record of 29.32 trillion in the process.
Underscoring the competition to participate in mining, difficulty joins hash rate — an estimate of the processing power dedicated to the blockchain — which is already at its highest ever.
Estimates vary by source, but raw data from MiningPoolStats underscores the “up only” trend when it comes to hash rate — a key trigger, some argue, for subsequent bullish price performance.
The trend of increasing hash rate is nothing new, meanwhile, having been long forecast as investment continues to grow.
As Cointelegraph reported, as of early April, 20% of Bitcoin mining was being undertaken by publicly-listed companies.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
We’ve added 60% to national debt since 2018. Germany - a country with major economic woes - added ‘just’ 32%.
Maybe it will never matter. Maybe MMT is real. Maybe we just cancel or inflate it out. Maybe career real estate borrowers or career politicians aren’t the answer.
I have no idea. Only time will tell. But it’s going to be fascinating to watch it play out.
He is right: it will be fascinating, and the latest budget deficit data simply confirmed that the day of reckoning will come very soon, certainly sooner than the two years that One River's Eric Peters predicted this weekend for the coming "US debt sustainability crisis."
According to the US Treasury, in February, the US collected $271 billion in various tax receipts, and spent $567 billion, more than double what it collected.
The two charts below show the divergence in US tax receipts which have flatlined (on a trailing 6M basis) since the covid pandemic in 2020 (with occasional stimmy-driven surges)...
... and spending which is about 50% higher compared to where it was in 2020.
The end result is that in February, the budget deficit rose to $296.3 billion, up 12.9% from a year prior, and the second highest February deficit on record.
And the punchline: on a cumulative basis, the budget deficit in fiscal 2024 which began on October 1, 2023 is now $828 billion, the second largest cumulative deficit through February on record, surpassed only by the peak covid year of 2021.
But wait there's more: because in a world where the US is spending more than twice what it is collecting, the endgame is clear: debt collapse, and while it won't be tomorrow, or the week after, it is coming... and it's also why the US is now selling $1 trillion in debt every 100 days just to keep operating (and absorbing all those millions of illegal immigrants who will keep voting democrat to preserve the socialist system of the US, so beloved by the Soros clan).
... having already surpassed total US defense spending and soon to surpass total health spending and, finally all social security spending, the largest spending category of all, which means that US debt will now rise exponentially higher until the inevitable moment when the US dollar loses its reserve status and it all comes crashing down.
We conclude with another observation by CNBC's Brian Sullivan, who quotes an email by a DC strategist...
.. which lays out the proposed Biden budget as follows:
The budget deficit will growth another $16 TRILLION over next 10 years. Thats *with* the proposed massive tax hikes.
Without them the deficit will grow $19 trillion.
That's why you will hear the "deficit is being reduced by $3 trillion" over the decade.
No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math.
Of course, in the long run, neither can the US... and since neither party will ever cut the spending which everyone by now is so addicted to, the best anyone can do is start planning for the endgame.
Former Project Veritas & O’Keefe Media Group operative and Pfizer formulation analyst scientist Justin Leslie revealed previously unpublished recordings showing Pfizer’s top vaccine researchers discussing major concerns surrounding COVID-19 vaccines. Leslie delivered these recordings to Veritas in late 2021, but they were never published:
Principal scientist at Pfizer, Kanwall Gill in 2021:
“We had no idea how it’s going to look like. MRNA vaccines have been there for 50 years, but nothing went to clinical trial because MRNA have been known to have side effects.”
Featured in Leslie’s footage is Kanwal Gill, a principal scientist at Pfizer. Gill was weary of MRNA technology given its long research history yet lack of approved commercial products. She called the vaccines “sneaky,” suggesting latent side effects could emerge in time.
Gill goes on to illustrate how the vaccine formulation process was dramatically rushed under the FDA’s Emergency Use Authorization and adds that profit incentives likely played a role:
Pfizer's principal scientist in 2021:
“It takes 10 year for a vaccine to come out. It takes years of observations... we are doing everything at the same time."
"It’s going to affect my heart, and I’m going to die. And nobody’s talking about that."
Leslie recorded another colleague, Pfizer’s pharmaceutical formulation scientist Ramin Darvari, who raised the since-validated concern that repeat booster intake could damage the cardiovascular system:
Pfizer's pharmaceutical formulation scientist, Ramin Darvari, in 2021:
“They’re engineering it specifically for me to take the next one, so increasing my consumption."
“It’s going to affect my heart, and I’m going to die. And nobody’s talking about that.”
None of these claims will be shocking to hear in 2024, but it is telling that high-level Pfizer researchers were discussing these topics in private while the company assured the public of “no serious safety concerns” upon the jab’s release:
Vaccine for Children is a Different Formulation
Leslie sent me a little-known FDA-Pfizer conference — a 7-hour Zoom meeting published in tandem with the approval of the vaccine for 5 – 11 year-olds — during which Pfizer’s vice presidents of vaccine research and development, Nicholas Warne and William Gruber, discussed a last-minute change to the vaccine’s “buffer” — from “PBS” to “Tris” — to improve its shelf life. For about 30 seconds of these 7 hours, Gruber acknowledged that the new formula was NOT the one used in clinical trials (emphasis mine):
“The studies were done using the same volume… but contained the PBS buffer. We obviously had extensive consultations with the FDA and it was determined that the clinical studies were not required because, again, the LNP and the MRNA are the same and the behavior — in terms of reactogenicity and efficacy — are expected to be the same.”
According to Leslie, the tweaked “buffer” dramatically changed the temperature needed for storage: “Before they changed this last step of the formulation, the formula was to be kept at -80 degrees Celsius. After they changed the last step, we kept them at 2 to 8 degrees celsius,” Leslie told me.
The claims are backed up in the referenced video presentation:
I’m no vaccinologist but an 80-degree temperature delta — and a 5x shelf-life in a warmer climate — seems like a significant change that might warrant clinical trials before commercial release.
Despite this information technically being public, there has been virtually no media scrutiny or even coverage — and in fact, most were told the vaccine for children was the same formula but just a smaller dose — which is perhaps due to a combination of the information being buried within a 7-hour jargon-filled presentation and our media being totally dysfunctional.
Bohemian Grove?
Leslie’s 2-hour long documentary on his experience at both Pfizer and O’Keefe’s companies concludes on an interesting note: James O’Keefe attended an outing at the Bohemian Grove.
Leslie offers this photo of James’ Bohemian Grove “GATE” slip as evidence, left on his work desk atop a copy of his book, “American Muckraker”:
My thoughts on the Bohemian Grove: my good friend’s dad was its general manager for several decades. From what I have gathered through that connection, the Bohemian Grove is not some version of the Illuminati, at least not in the institutional sense.
Do powerful elites hangout there? Absolutely. Do they discuss their plans for the world while hanging out there? I’m sure it has happened. Do they have a weird ritual with a giant owl? Yep, Alex Jones showed that to the world.
My perspective is based on conversations with my friend and my belief that his father is not lying to him. I could be wrong and am open to evidence — like if boxer Ryan Garcia decides to produce evidence regarding his rape claims — and I do find it a bit strange the club would invite O’Keefe who is notorious for covertly filming, but Occam’s razor would lead me to believe the club is — as it was under my friend’s dad — run by boomer conservatives the extent of whose politics include disliking wokeness, immigration, and Biden (common subjects of O’Keefe’s work).
Therefore, I don’t find O’Keefe’s visit to the club indicative that he is some sort of Operation Mockingbird asset as Leslie tries to depict (however Mockingbird is a 100% legitimate conspiracy). I have also met James several times and even came close to joining OMG. While I disagreed with James on the significance of many of his stories — finding some to be overhyped and showy — I never doubted his conviction in them.
As for why Leslie’s story was squashed… all my sources told me it was to avoid jail time for Veritas executives.
Feel free to watch Leslie’s full documentary here and decide for yourself.
Fun fact — Justin Leslie was also the operative behind this mega-viral Project Veritas story where Pfizer’s director of R&D claimed the company was privately mutating COVID-19 behind closed doors:
BREAKING: @Pfizer Exploring "Mutating" COVID-19 Virus For New Vaccines
"Don't tell anyone this...There is a risk...have to be very controlled to make sure this virus you mutate doesn't create something...the way that the virus started in Wuhan, to be honest."#DirectedEvolutionpic.twitter.com/xaRvlD5qTo
“[…] our findings support the hypothesis that the intrauterine environment, particularly essential and non-essential metals, affect epigenetic aging biomarkers across the life course.”
Credit: 2024 Bozack et al.
“[…] our findings support the hypothesis that the intrauterine environment, particularly essential and non-essential metals, affect epigenetic aging biomarkers across the life course.”
BUFFALO, NY- March 12, 2024 – A new research paper was published inAging (listed by MEDLINE/PubMed as “Aging (Albany NY)” and “Aging-US” by Web of Science) Volume 16, Issue 4, entitled, “Associations of prenatal one-carbon metabolism nutrients and metals with epigenetic aging biomarkers at birth and in childhood in a US cohort.”
Epigenetic gestational age acceleration (EGAA) at birth and epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) in childhood may be biomarkers of the intrauterine environment. In this new study, researchers Anne K. Bozack, Sheryl L. Rifas-Shiman, Andrea A. Baccarelli, Robert O. Wright, Diane R. Gold, Emily Oken, Marie-France Hivert, and Andres Cardenas from Stanford University School of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Columbia University, and Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai investigated the extent to which first-trimester folate, B12, 5 essential and 7 non-essential metals in maternal circulation are associated with EGAA and EAA in early life.
“[…] we hypothesized that OCM [one-carbon metabolism] nutrients and essential metals would be positively associated with EGAA and non-essential metals would be negatively associated with EGAA. We also investigated nonlinear associations and associations with mixtures of micronutrients and metals.”
Bohlin EGAA and Horvath pan-tissue and skin and blood EAA were calculated using DNA methylation measured in cord blood (N=351) and mid-childhood blood (N=326; median age = 7.7 years) in the Project Viva pre-birth cohort. A one standard deviation increase in individual essential metals (copper, manganese, and zinc) was associated with 0.94-1.2 weeks lower Horvath EAA at birth, and patterns of exposures identified by exploratory factor analysis suggested that a common source of essential metals was associated with Horvath EAA. The researchers also observed evidence of nonlinear associations of zinc with Bohlin EGAA, magnesium and lead with Horvath EAA, and cesium with skin and blood EAA at birth. Overall, associations at birth did not persist in mid-childhood; however, arsenic was associated with greater EAA at birth and in childhood.
“Prenatal metals, including essential metals and arsenic, are associated with epigenetic aging in early life, which might be associated with future health.”
Read the full paper: DOI:https://doi.org/10.18632/aging.205602
Corresponding Author: Andres Cardenas
Corresponding Email:andres.cardenas@stanford.edu
Keywords: epigenetic age acceleration, metals, folate, B12, prenatal exposures
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About Aging:
Launched in 2009, Aging publishes papers of general interest and biological significance in all fields of aging research and age-related diseases, including cancer—and now, with a special focus on COVID-19 vulnerability as an age-dependent syndrome. Topics in Aging go beyond traditional gerontology, including, but not limited to, cellular and molecular biology, human age-related diseases, pathology in model organisms, signal transduction pathways (e.g., p53, sirtuins, and PI-3K/AKT/mTOR, among others), and approaches to modulating these signaling pathways.
Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com and connect with us:
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