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‘Something sure feels like it’s about to break’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin looks set for a fall as a surging U.S. dollar sparks suspicion based on an equally grim macro picture.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts…

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Bitcoin looks set for a fall as a surging U.S. dollar sparks suspicion based on an equally grim macro picture.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in an uncertain place facing uncertain times — is $40,000 now resistance?

The largest cryptocurrency has just closed a fourth red weekly candle in a row, something that has not happened since June 2020.

As cold feet over the macro market outlook continues to be the norm, there seems little to comfort bulls as the week gets underway — and Bitcoin is not done selling off yet.

On the back of $4,000 in losses over the past four days alone, price targets now focus on retests of liquidity levels further toward $30,000.

It is not all doom and gloom — long-term hodlers and key participants such as miners are showing a more positive stance when it comes to Bitcoin as an investment.

With that in mind, Cointelegraph takes a look at the forces at work when it comes to shaping BTC price action in the coming days.

Asia woes overtake French election relief 

The key external event for risk assets at the start of the week is the French election, this was won by incumbent Emmanuel Macron.

A sigh of relief for market players concerned about a surprise victory from far-right rival Marine Le Pen, Macron’s second term is expected to lift French stocks in particular on April 25’s open and the embattled euro along with them.

The European Union, much like the United States, faces a potent cocktail of inflation and plummeting bond markets, with the European Central Bank (ECB) nonetheless not yet taking decisive steps to raise interest rates or reduce its near $10 trillion balance sheet.

Bitcoin was unmoved at the Macron victory, and risk assets are already contending with an Asia downturn on April 25 as COVID-19 in China rattles sentiment.

The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong is down 3.5% on the day so far, while the Shanghai Composite has shed 4.2%.

With crypto en masse heavily correlated to stock market movements currently, a repeat performance by Europe and the United States would produce clear directional cues.

“The worry is the current policy support that the government has already put in place may not be effective because of the Covid policies as activities are subdued,” Jenny Zeng, co-head of Asia Pacific fixed income at global asset management firm AllianceBernstein, told Bloomberg.

Even before April 25’s losses, the past week was already painful for equities, as noted by markets commentator Holger Zschaepitz.

“Global stocks lost $3.3tn in mkt cap this wk as US equities — after peaking Thur morning — experienced steady fall lower as investors seem to reconsider why they have been buying risk assets in world filled w/so much uncertainty,” he told Twitter users on April 24:

“Global stocks worth $107.6tn, equal to 127% of GDP.”
Bloomberg global stock market cap chart. Source: Holger Zschaepitz/ Twitter

A further post flagged the so-called Buffett Indicator — the ratio of total U.S. stock market valuation to GDP — still being in what he called “problematic” territory at over 100%.

Dollar strength is back with a vengeance

One component of the macro landscape firmly in bullish mode — to the chagrin of crypto traders — is the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), after wobbling at two-year highs last week, now looks to be continuing its uptrend.

At 101.61 at the time of writing, DXY is challenging its performance from March 2020, when the Coronavirus crash sent assets worldwide tumbling.

Dollar strength has rarely been a boon for Bitcoin, and the inverse correlation, while criticized by some, appears to be firmly in control this month.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart vs. U.S. dollar currency index (DXY). Source: TradingView

“Looks like the DXY dev announced a token burn or something,” popular trader Crypto Ed joked in response to the latest move.

For Preston Pysh, host of the Investor’s Podcast Network, something does not seem right.

“We got the BoJ implementing Yield Curve Control while the Yen is collapsing and we have the FED about to hike 50bps while the dollar is making new highs,” he warned on April 25"

“Something sure feels like it’s about to break…

Weekly chart prints fourth straight red candle

Bitcoin is looking anything but rosy on April 25. While the weekend managed to avoid significant volatility, the weekly close still disappointed, coming in at just under last week’s level.

This, nevertheless, means that there are now four red candles in a row on the weekly chart, something that Bitcoin has not seen since June 2020, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

The downtrend then continued overnight to see BTC/USD fall below $39,000, a position it maintains at the time of writing.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Traders are eyeing various chart features for clues as to where the pair is headed next, but bullish inklings are decidedly few and far between.

For popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, it is the Ichimoku cloud looming overhead that would cause further losses for Bitcoin.

Popular analyst Cheds, author of Trading Wisdom, meanwhile, eyed a potential crossing under the 200-period moving average on the three-day chart.

This would be significant, he argued over the weekend, as the last time that this happened after a bull run was the bear market bottom of 2018.

“Not a prediction just an observation,” he cautioned.

On the topic of December 2018 and its $3,100 floor, Matthew Hyland, known as Parabolic Matt on Twitter, produced further comparisons between that period and the current BTC price action.

On longer timeframes, he said, holding $37,600 is now “crucial.”

“Looking for that sweep down, at which point i will then be looking for signs of a relief rally to play off from,” fellow Twitter pundit Crypto Tony added on April 25 as part of his own analysis.

Hodlers put in a new record

The “choppy” nature of lower timeframe price action on Bitcoin makes it an uninspiring trade for anyone but the most experienced players.

As such, it is perhaps little surprise that the majority of hodlers are choosing to stay hands-off and do what they do best.

That is now reflected in on-chain data, which shows that the proportion of the Bitcoin supply that has stayed dormant for at least a year is now at all-time highs.

Citing figures from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, economist Jan Wuestenfeld noted that this translates to the supply more broadly becoming “older.” Proportionally, more coins are being hodled for longer rather than spent.

According to Glassnode, the supply now dormant for a year or more has broken 64% for the first time on record.

HODL Waves, a Glassnode indicator showing hodled coins of all ages confirms the trend. Since December 2021, the 1-2 year supply slice has increased more than any other — from under 10% then to nearly 15% as of this week.

The 3-5 year band of hodled coins also increased its presence in Q1.

Bitcoin HODL Waves chart. Source: Unchained Capital

Fundamentals still point to the moon

It is not just casual steadfast hodlers who are stubbornly refusing to reduce their BTC exposure despite the grim outlook.

Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, DOT, XMR, APE, CAKE

A look at Bitcoin’s network fundamentals shows that miners are also anything but bearish when it comes to investing.

A frequent story this year, but nonetheless an impressive one, given that price is moving in the opposite direction, Bitcoin’s network hash rate and difficulty are both due to make new all-time highs this week.

Depending on price performance, difficulty should adjust up by around 2.9% in two days’ time, setting a new record of 29.32 trillion in the process.

Underscoring the competition to participate in mining, difficulty joins hash rate — an estimate of the processing power dedicated to the blockchain — which is already at its highest ever.

Estimates vary by source, but raw data from MiningPoolStats underscores the “up only” trend when it comes to hash rate — a key trigger, some argue, for subsequent bullish price performance.

Bitcoin hash rate chart (screenshot). Source: MiningPoolStats

The trend of increasing hash rate is nothing new, having been long forecasted as investment continues to grow.

As Cointelegraph previously reported, as of early April, 20% of Bitcoin mining was being undertaken by publicly-listed companies.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

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36 mins ago

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March 11, 2024

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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A major cruise line is testing a monthly subscription service

The Cruise Scarlet Summer Season Pass was designed with remote workers in mind.

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37 mins ago

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March 11, 2024

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While going on a cruise once meant disconnecting from the world when between ports because any WiFi available aboard was glitchy and expensive, advances in technology over the last decade have enabled millions to not only stay in touch with home but even work remotely.

With such remote workers and digital nomads in mind, Virgin Voyages has designed a monthly pass that gives those who want to work from the seas a WFH setup on its Scarlet Lady ship — while the latter acronym usually means "work from home," the cruise line is advertising as "work from the helm.”

Related: Royal Caribbean shares a warning with passengers

"Inspired by Richard Branson's belief and track record that brilliant work is best paired with a hearty dose of fun, we're welcoming Sailors on board Scarlet Lady for a full month to help them achieve that perfect work-life balance," Virgin Voyages said in announcing its new promotion. "Take a vacation away from your monotonous work-from-home set up (sorry, but…not sorry) and start taking calls from your private balcony overlooking the Mediterranean sea."

A man looks through his phone while sitting in a hot tub on a cruise ship.

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This is how much it'll cost you to work from a cruise ship for a month

While the single most important feature for successful work at sea — WiFi — is already available for free on Virgin cruises, the new Scarlet Summer Season Pass includes a faster connection, a $10 daily coffee credit, access to a private rooftop, and other member-only areas as well as wash and fold laundry service that Virgin advertises as a perk that will allow one to concentrate on work

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The pass starts at $9,990 for a two-guest cabin and is available for four monthlong cruises departing in June, July, August, and September — each departs from ports such as Barcelona, Marseille, and Palma de Mallorca and spends four weeks touring around the Mediterranean.

Longer cruises are becoming more common, here's why

The new pass is essentially a version of an upgraded cruise package with additional perks but is specifically tailored to those who plan on working from the ship as an opportunity to market to them.

"Stay connected to your work with the fastest at-sea internet in the biz when you want and log-off to let the exquisite landscape of the Mediterranean inspire you when you need," reads the promotional material for the pass.

Amid the rise of remote work post-pandemic, cruise lines have been seeing growing interest in longer journeys in which many of the passengers not just vacation in the traditional sense but work from a mobile office.

In 2023, Turkish cruise line operator Miray even started selling cabins on a three-year tour around the world but the endeavor hit the rocks after one of the engineers declared the MV Gemini ship the company planned to use for the journey "unseaworthy" and the cruise ship line dealt with a PR scandal that ultimately sank the project before it could take off.

While three years at sea would have set a record as the longest cruise journey on the market, companies such as Royal Caribbean  (RCL) (both with its namesake brand and its Celebrity Cruises line) have been offering increasingly long cruises that serve as many people’s temporary homes and cross through multiple continents.

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International

This is the biggest money mistake you’re making during travel

A retail expert talks of some common money mistakes travelers make on their trips.

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37 mins ago

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March 11, 2024

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Travel is expensive. Despite the explosion of travel demand in the two years since the world opened up from the pandemic, survey after survey shows that financial reasons are the biggest factor keeping some from taking their desired trips.

Airfare, accommodation as well as food and entertainment during the trip have all outpaced inflation over the last four years.

Related: This is why we're still spending an insane amount of money on travel

But while there are multiple tricks and “travel hacks” for finding cheaper plane tickets and accommodation, the biggest financial mistake that leads to blown travel budgets is much smaller and more insidious.

A traveler watches a plane takeoff at an airport gate.

Jeshoots on Unsplash

This is what you should (and shouldn’t) spend your money on while abroad

“When it comes to traveling, it's hard to resist buying items so you can have a piece of that memory at home,” Kristen Gall, a retail expert who heads the financial planning section at points-back platform Rakuten, told Travel + Leisure in an interview. “However, it's important to remember that you don't need every souvenir that catches your eye.”

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According to Gall, souvenirs not only have a tendency to add up in price but also weight which can in turn require one to pay for extra weight or even another suitcase at the airport — over the last two months, airlines like Delta  (DAL) , American Airlines  (AAL)  and JetBlue Airways  (JBLU)  have all followed each other in increasing baggage prices to in some cases as much as $60 for a first bag and $100 for a second one.

While such extras may not seem like a lot compared to the thousands one might have spent on the hotel and ticket, they all have what is sometimes known as a “coffee” or “takeout effect” in which small expenses can lead one to overspend by a large amount.

‘Save up for one special thing rather than a bunch of trinkets…’

“When traveling abroad, I recommend only purchasing items that you can't get back at home, or that are small enough to not impact your luggage weight,” Gall said. “If you’re set on bringing home a souvenir, save up for one special thing, rather than wasting your money on a bunch of trinkets you may not think twice about once you return home.”

Along with the immediate costs, there is also the risk of purchasing things that go to waste when returning home from an international vacation. Alcohol is subject to airlines’ liquid rules while certain types of foods, particularly meat and other animal products, can be confiscated by customs. 

While one incident of losing an expensive bottle of liquor or cheese brought back from a country like France will often make travelers forever careful, those who travel internationally less frequently will often be unaware of specific rules and be forced to part with something they spent money on at the airport.

“It's important to keep in mind that you're going to have to travel back with everything you purchased,” Gall continued. “[…] Be careful when buying food or wine, as it may not make it through customs. Foods like chocolate are typically fine, but items like meat and produce are likely prohibited to come back into the country.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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