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Smart home market to grow by 15.87% Y-O-Y in 2023; Growing consumer interest in home automation will drive growth – Technavio

Smart home market to grow by 15.87% Y-O-Y in 2023; Growing consumer interest in home automation will drive growth – Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Jan. 23, 2023

NEW YORK, Jan. 23, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Smart home market insights –

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Smart home market to grow by 15.87% Y-O-Y in 2023; Growing consumer interest in home automation will drive growth - Technavio

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Jan. 23, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Smart home market insights -

  • Vendors: 15+, Including ABB Ltd., Allegion Public Ltd. Co., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., ASSA ABLOY AB, Comcast Corp., Honeywell International Inc., Hubbell Inc., Johnson Controls International Plc., Legrand SA, LG Corp., Lutron Electronics Co. Inc., Panasonic Holdings Corp., Raytheon Technologies Corp., Robert Bosch GmbH, Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., Schneider Electric SE, Snap One LLC, Vivint Smart Home Inc, among others
  • Coverage: Parent market analysis; key drivers, major trends, and challenges; customer and vendor landscape; vendor product insights and recent developments; key vendors; and market positioning of vendors
  • Segments: Application (Home entertainment, Smart appliances, Energy management, Lighting control system and HVAC, and Safety and security system), Technology (Wireless and Wired), and Geography (North America, Europe, APAC, Middle East and Africa, and South America)

To understand more about the smart home market, request a sample report

In 2017, the smart home market was valued at USD 45.33 billion. From a regional perspective, APAC held the largest market share, valued at USD 6.17 billion. The smart home market size is estimated to grow by USD 133.01 billion from 2022 to 2027 at a CAGR of 18.36% according to Technavio.

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Smart home market - Customer Landscape
To help companies evaluate and develop growth strategies, the report outlines –

  • Key purchase criteria
  • Adoption rates
  • Adoption lifecycle
  • Drivers of price sensitivity
  • For highlights on customer landscape analysis, download a sample!
Smart home market - Vendor Insights

The growing competition in the market is compelling vendors to adopt various growth strategies such as promotional activities and spending on advertisements to improve the visibility of their services. Technavio report analyzes the market's competitive landscape and offers information on several market vendors including –

  • ABB Ltd. - The company offers smart home solutions such as smart security cameras, smart light control, smart temperature control, and smart door entry system.
  • Allegion Public Ltd. Co. - The company offers smart home appliances such as smart home locks and smart home thermostats.
  • Alphabet Inc. - The company offers smart home security cameras such as Nest Cam and Nest mini through its subsidiary Google LLC.
  • Amazon.com Inc. - The company offers smart home solutions such as Alexa voice control device, which can be connected to home lighting, smart cameras, smart TVs, and thermostats.
Smart home marketMarket Dynamics

Major Drivers – 

  • Growing consumer interest in home automation
  • Increase in crowdfunding campaigns
  • Availability of a wide range of smart home products

KEY challenges – 

  • Increase in issues related to interoperability
  • Growing security and privacy concerns
  • Need for network coverage

Drivers and Challenges have an impact on market dynamics and can impact businesses. Find some insights from a sample report!

The smart home market report provides critical information and factual data, with a qualitative and quantitative study of the market based on market drivers and limitations as well as future prospects.

What are the key data covered in this Smart Home Market report?

  • CAGR of the market during the forecast period
  • Detailed information on factors that will drive the growth of the Smart Home Market between 2023 and 2027
  • Precise estimation of the size of the Smart Home Market and its contribution to the parent market
  • Accurate predictions about upcoming trends and changes in consumer behavior
  • Growth of the Smart Home Market industry across North America, Europe, APAC, Middle East and Africa, and South America
  • A thorough analysis of the market's competitive landscape and detailed information about vendors
  • Comprehensive analysis of factors that will challenge the growth of Smart Home Market vendors

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Smart Home Market Scope

Report Coverage

Details

Page number

182

Base year

2022

Historic period

2017-2021

Forecast period

2023-2027

Growth momentum & CAGR

Accelerate at a CAGR of 18.36%

Market growth 2023-2027

USD 133.01 billion

Market structure

Fragmented

YoY growth 2022-2023 (%)

15.87

Regional analysis

North America, Europe, APAC, Middle East and Africa, and South America

Performing market contribution

APAC at 37%

Key countries

US, Canada, China, Germany, and UK

Competitive landscape

Leading Vendors, Market Positioning of Vendors, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks

Key companies profiled

ABB Ltd., Allegion Public Ltd. Co., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., ASSA ABLOY AB, Comcast Corp., Honeywell International Inc., Hubbell Inc., Johnson Controls International Plc., Legrand SA, LG Corp., Lutron Electronics Co. Inc., Panasonic Holdings Corp., Raytheon Technologies Corp., Robert Bosch GmbH, Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., Schneider Electric SE, Snap One LLC, and Vivint Smart Home Inc

Market dynamics

Parent market analysis, market growth inducers and obstacles, fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, and market condition analysis for the forecast period.

Customization purview

If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized.

Table of contents:

1 Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Market overview 
    • Exhibit 01: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 02: Executive Summary – Data Table on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 03: Executive Summary – Chart on Global Market Characteristics
    • Exhibit 04: Executive Summary – Chart on Market by Geography
    • Exhibit 05: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Application
    • Exhibit 06: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Technology
    • Exhibit 07: Executive Summary – Chart on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 08: Executive Summary – Data Table on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 09: Executive Summary – Chart on Vendor Market Positioning

2 Market Landscape

  • 2.1 Market ecosystem 
    • Exhibit 10: Parent market
    • Exhibit 11: Market Characteristics

3 Market Sizing

  • 3.1 Market definition 
    • Exhibit 12: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition
  • 3.2 Market segment analysis 
    • Exhibit 13: Market segments
  • 3.3 Market size 2022
  • 3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 14: Chart on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 15: Data Table on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 16: Chart on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 17: Data Table on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)

4 Historic Market Size

  • 4.1 Global smart home market 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 18: Historic Market Size – Data Table on Global smart home market 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)
  • 4.2 Application Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 19: Historic Market Size – Application Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)
  • 4.3 Technology Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 20: Historic Market Size – Technology Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)
  • 4.4 Geography Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 21: Historic Market Size – Geography Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)
  • 4.5 Country Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 22: Historic Market Size – Country Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)

5 Five Forces Analysis

  • 5.1 Five forces summary 
    • Exhibit 23: Five forces analysis - Comparison between 2022 and 2027
  • 5.2 Bargaining power of buyers 
    • Exhibit 24: Chart on Bargaining power of buyers – Impact of key factors 2022 and 2027
  • 5.3 Bargaining power of suppliers 
    • Exhibit 25: Bargaining power of suppliers – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.4 Threat of new entrants 
    • Exhibit 26: Threat of new entrants – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.5 Threat of substitutes 
    • Exhibit 27: Threat of substitutes – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.6 Threat of rivalry 
    • Exhibit 28: Threat of rivalry – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.7 Market condition 
    • Exhibit 29: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2022 and 2027

6 Market Segmentation by Application

  • 6.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 30: Chart on Application - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 31: Data Table on Application - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.2 Comparison by Application 
    • Exhibit 32: Chart on Comparison by Application
    • Exhibit 33: Data Table on Comparison by Application
  • 6.3 Home entertainment - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 34: Chart on Home entertainment - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 35: Data Table on Home entertainment - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 36: Chart on Home entertainment - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 37: Data Table on Home entertainment - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.4 Smart appliances - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 38: Chart on Smart appliances - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 39: Data Table on Smart appliances - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 40: Chart on Smart appliances - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 41: Data Table on Smart appliances - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.5 Energy management - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 42: Chart on Energy management - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 43: Data Table on Energy management - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 44: Chart on Energy management - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 45: Data Table on Energy management - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.6 Lighting control system and HVAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 46: Chart on Lighting control system and HVAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 47: Data Table on Lighting control system and HVAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 48: Chart on Lighting control system and HVAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 49: Data Table on Lighting control system and HVAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.7 Safety and security system - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 50: Chart on Safety and security system - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 51: Data Table on Safety and security system - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 52: Chart on Safety and security system - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 53: Data Table on Safety and security system - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.8 Market opportunity by Application 
    • Exhibit 54: Market opportunity by Application ($ billion)

7 Market Segmentation by Technology

  • 7.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 55: Chart on Technology - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 56: Data Table on Technology - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.2 Comparison by Technology 
    • Exhibit 57: Chart on Comparison by Technology
    • Exhibit 58: Data Table on Comparison by Technology
  • 7.3 Wireless - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 59: Chart on Wireless - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 60: Data Table on Wireless - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 61: Chart on Wireless - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 62: Data Table on Wireless - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.4 Wired - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 63: Chart on Wired - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 64: Data Table on Wired - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 65: Chart on Wired - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 66: Data Table on Wired - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.5 Market opportunity by Technology 
    • Exhibit 67: Market opportunity by Technology ($ billion)

8 Customer Landscape

  • 8.1 Customer landscape overview 
    • Exhibit 68: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria

9 Geographic Landscape

  • 9.1 Geographic segmentation 
    • Exhibit 69: Chart on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 70: Data Table on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.2 Geographic comparison 
    • Exhibit 71: Chart on Geographic comparison
    • Exhibit 72: Data Table on Geographic comparison
  • 9.3 North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 73: Chart on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 74: Data Table on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 75: Chart on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 76: Data Table on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.4 Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 77: Chart on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 78: Data Table on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 79: Chart on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 80: Data Table on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.5 APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 81: Chart on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 82: Data Table on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 83: Chart on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 84: Data Table on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.6 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 85: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 86: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 87: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 88: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.7 South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 89: Chart on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 90: Data Table on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 91: Chart on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 92: Data Table on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.8 US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 93: Chart on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 94: Data Table on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 95: Chart on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 96: Data Table on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.9 Germany - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 97: Chart on Germany - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 98: Data Table on Germany - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 99: Chart on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 100: Data Table on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.10 China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 101: Chart on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 102: Data Table on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 103: Chart on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 104: Data Table on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.11 UK - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 105: Chart on UK - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 106: Data Table on UK - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 107: Chart on UK - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 108: Data Table on UK - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.12 Canada - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 109: Chart on Canada - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 110: Data Table on Canada - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 111: Chart on Canada - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 112: Data Table on Canada - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.13 Market opportunity by geography 
    • Exhibit 113: Market opportunity by geography ($ billion)

10 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends

  • 10.1 Market drivers
  • 10.2 Market challenges
  • 10.3 Impact of drivers and challenges 
    • Exhibit 114: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2022 and 2027
  • 10.4 Market trends

11 Vendor Landscape

  • 11.1 Overview
  • 11.2 Vendor landscape 
    • Exhibit 115: Overview on Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
  • 11.3 Landscape disruption 
    • Exhibit 116: Overview on factors of disruption
  • 11.4 Industry risks 
    • Exhibit 117: Impact of key risks on business

12 Vendor Analysis

  • 12.1 Vendors covered 
    • Exhibit 118: Vendors covered
  • 12.2 Market positioning of vendors 
    • Exhibit 119: Matrix on vendor position and classification
  • 12.3 ABB Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 120: ABB Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 121: ABB Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 122: ABB Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 123: ABB Ltd. - Segment focus
  • 12.4 Allegion Public Ltd. Co. 
    • Exhibit 124: Allegion Public Ltd. Co. - Overview
    • Exhibit 125: Allegion Public Ltd. Co. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 126: Allegion Public Ltd. Co. - Key news
    • Exhibit 127: Allegion Public Ltd. Co. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 128: Allegion Public Ltd. Co. - Segment focus
  • 12.5 Alphabet Inc. 
    • Exhibit 129: Alphabet Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 130: Alphabet Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 131: Alphabet Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 132: Alphabet Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 133: Alphabet Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.6 Amazon.com Inc. 
    • Exhibit 134: Amazon.com Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 135: Amazon.com Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 136: Amazon.com Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 137: Amazon.com Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 138: Amazon.com Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.7 Apple Inc. 
    • Exhibit 139: Apple Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 140: Apple Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 141: Apple Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 142: Apple Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 143: Apple Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.8 ASSA ABLOY AB 
    • Exhibit 144: ASSA ABLOY AB - Overview
    • Exhibit 145: ASSA ABLOY AB - Business segments
    • Exhibit 146: ASSA ABLOY AB - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 147: ASSA ABLOY AB - Segment focus
  • 12.9 Honeywell International Inc. 
    • Exhibit 148: Honeywell International Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 149: Honeywell International Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 150: Honeywell International Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 151: Honeywell International Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 152: Honeywell International Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.10 Johnson Controls International Plc. 
    • Exhibit 153: Johnson Controls International Plc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 154: Johnson Controls International Plc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 155: Johnson Controls International Plc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 156: Johnson Controls International Plc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 157: Johnson Controls International Plc. - Segment focus
  • 12.11 Legrand SA 
    • Exhibit 158: Legrand SA - Overview
    • Exhibit 159: Legrand SA - Business segments
    • Exhibit 160: Legrand SA - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 161: Legrand SA - Segment focus
  • 12.12 LG Corp. 
    • Exhibit 162: LG Corp. - Overview
    • Exhibit 163: LG Corp. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 164: LG Corp. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 165: LG Corp. - Segment focus
  • 12.13 Panasonic Holdings Corp. 
    • Exhibit 166: Panasonic Holdings Corp. - Overview
    • Exhibit 167: Panasonic Holdings Corp. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 168: Panasonic Holdings Corp. - Key news
    • Exhibit 169: Panasonic Holdings Corp. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 170: Panasonic Holdings Corp. - Segment focus
  • 12.14 Raytheon Technologies Corp. 
    • Exhibit 171: Raytheon Technologies Corp. - Overview
    • Exhibit 172: Raytheon Technologies Corp. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 173: Raytheon Technologies Corp. - Key news
    • Exhibit 174: Raytheon Technologies Corp. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 175: Raytheon Technologies Corp. - Segment focus
  • 12.15 Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 176: Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 177: Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 178: Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. - Key news
    • Exhibit 179: Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 180: Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. - Segment focus
  • 12.16 Schneider Electric SE 
    • Exhibit 181: Schneider Electric SE - Overview
    • Exhibit 182: Schneider Electric SE - Business segments
    • Exhibit 183: Schneider Electric SE - Key news
    • Exhibit 184: Schneider Electric SE - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 185: Schneider Electric SE - Segment focus
  • 12.17 Snap One LLC 
    • Exhibit 186: Snap One LLC - Overview
    • Exhibit 187: Snap One LLC - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 188: Snap One LLC - Key news
    • Exhibit 189: Snap One LLC - Key offerings

13 Appendix

  • 13.1 Scope of the report
  • 13.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist 
    • Exhibit 190: Inclusions checklist
    • Exhibit 191: Exclusions checklist
  • 13.3 Currency conversion rates for US$ 
    • Exhibit 192: Currency conversion rates for US$
  • 13.4 Research methodology 
    • Exhibit 193: Research methodology
    • Exhibit 194: Validation techniques employed for market sizing
    • Exhibit 195: Information sources
  • 13.5 List of abbreviations 
    • Exhibit 196: List of abbreviations
About Us

Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focuses on emerging market trends and provides actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions. With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio's report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning across 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio's comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.

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Technavio Research
Jesse Maida
Media & Marketing Executive
US: +1 844 364 1100
UK: +44 203 893 3200
Email: media@technavio.com
Website: www.technavio.com/

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Schedule for Week of January 29, 2023

The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and November Case-Shiller house prices.Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and January vehicle sales.The FOMC meets this week, and the FO…

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The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and November Case-Shiller house prices.

Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and January vehicle sales.

The FOMC meets this week, and the FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate.

----- Monday, January 30th -----

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for January.

----- Tuesday, January 31st -----

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for November. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November.

This graph shows the Year over year change in the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 6.9% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 44.9, down from 45.1 in December.

10:00 AM: The Q4 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.

----- Wednesday, February 1st -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 170,000 payroll jobs added in January, down from 235,000 added in December.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in construction spending.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Job openings decreased in November to 10.458 million from 10.512 million in October

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.0, down from 48.4 in December.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 14.3 million SAAR in January, up from 13.3 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the December sales rate.

----- Thursday, February 2nd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 200 thousand initial claims, up from 186 thousand last week.
----- Friday, February 3rd -----

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 185,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.6%.

There were 223,000 jobs added in December, and the unemployment rate was at 3.5%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The pandemic employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, as of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned and are now 1.24 million above pre-pandemic levels.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.3, up from 49.6 in December.

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US gov’t $1.5T debt interest will be equal 3X Bitcoin market cap in 2023

The U.S. will pay over $1 trillion in debt interest next year, the equivalent of three or more Bitcoin market caps at current prices.

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The U.S. will pay over $1 trillion in debt interest next year, the equivalent of three or more Bitcoin market caps at current prices.

Commentators believe that Bitcoin (BTC) bulls do not need to wait long for the United States to start printing money again.

The latest analysis of U.S. macroeconomic data has led one market strategist to predict quantitative tightening (QT) ending to avoid a “catastrophic debt crisis.”

Analyst: Fed will have “no choice” with rate cuts

The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to remove liquidity from the financial system to fight inflation, reversing years of COVID-19-era money printing.

While interest rate hikes look set to continue declining in scope, some now believe that the Fed will soon have only one option — to halt the process altogether.

“Why the Fed will have no choice but to cut or risk a catastrophic debt crisis,” Sven Henrich, founder of NorthmanTrader, summarized on Jan. 27.

“Higher for longer is a fantasy not rooted in math reality.”

Henrich uploaded a chart showing interest payments on current U.S. government expenditure, now hurtling toward $1 trillion a year.

A dizzying number, the interest comes from U.S. government debt being over $31 trillion, with the Fed printing trillions of dollars since March 2020. Since then, interest payments have increased by 42%, Henrich noted.

The phenomenon has not gone unnoticed elsewhere in crypto circles. Popular Twitter account Wall Street Silver compared the interest payments as a portion of U.S. tax revenue.

“US paid $853 Billion in Interest for $31 Trillion Debt in 2022; More than Defense Budget in 2023. If the Fed keeps rates at these levels (or higher) we will be at $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion in interest paid on the debt,” it wrote.

“The US govt collects about $4.9 trillion in taxes.”
Interest rates on U.S. government debt chart (screenshot). Source: Wall Street Silver/ Twitter

Such a scenario might be music to the ears of those with significant Bitcoin exposure. Periods of “easy” liquidity have corresponded with increased appetite for risk assets across the mainstream investment world.

The Fed’s unwinding of that policy accompanied Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market, and a “pivot” in interest rate hikes is thus seen by many as the first sign of the “good” times returning.

Crypto pain before pleasure?

Not everyone, however, agrees that the impact on risk assets, including crypto, will be all-out positive prior to that.

Related: Bitcoin ‘so bullish’ at $23K as analyst reveals new BTC price metrics

As Cointelegraph reported, ex-BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believes that chaos will come first, tanking Bitcoin and altcoins to new lows before any sort of long-term renaissance kicks in.

If the Fed faces a complete lack of options to avoid a meltdown, Hayes believes that the damage will have already been done before QT gives way to quantitative easing.

“This scenario is less ideal because it would mean that everyone who is buying risky assets now would be in store for massive drawdowns in performance. 2023 could be just as bad as 2022 until the Fed pivots,” he wrote in a blog post this month.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Stay Ahead of GDP: 3 Charts to Become a Smarter Trader

When concerns of a recession are front and center, investors tend to pay more attention to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The Q4 2022 GDP report…

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When concerns of a recession are front and center, investors tend to pay more attention to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The Q4 2022 GDP report showed the U.S. economy grew by 2.9% in the quarter, and Wall Street wasn't disappointed. The day the report was released, the market closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJIA) up 0.61%, the S&P 500 index ($SPX) up 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) up 1.76%. Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Energy were the top-performing S&P sectors.

Add to the GDP report strong earnings from Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) and a mega announcement from Chevron Corp. (CVX)—raising dividends and a $75 billion buyback round—and you get a strong day in the stock markets.

Why is the GDP Report Important?

If a country's GDP is growing faster than expected, it could be a positive indication of economic strength. It means that consumer spending, business investment, and exports, among other factors, are going strong. But the GDP is just one indicator, and one indicator doesn't necessarily tell the whole story. It's a good idea to look at other indicators, such as the unemployment rate, inflation, and consumer sentiment, before making a conclusion.

Inflation appears to be cooling, but the labor market continues to be strong. The Fed has stated in many of its previous meetings that it'll be closely watching the labor market. So that'll be a sticky point as we get close to the next Fed meeting. Consumer spending is also strong, according to the GDP report. But that could have been because of increased auto sales and spending on services such as health care, personal care, and utilities. Retail sales released earlier in January indicated that holiday sales were lower.

There's a chance we could see retail sales slowing in Q1 2023 as some households run out of savings that were accumulated during the pandemic. This is something to keep an eye on going forward, as a slowdown in retail sales could mean increases in inventories. And this is something that could decrease economic activity.

Overall, the recent GDP report indicates the U.S. economy is strong, although some economists feel we'll probably see some downside in 2023, though not a recession. But the one drawback of the GDP report is that it's lagging. It comes out after the fact. Wouldn't it be great if you had known this ahead of time so you could position your trades to take advantage of the rally? While there's no way to know with 100% accuracy, there are ways to identify probable events.

3 Ways To Stay Ahead of the Curve

Instead of waiting for three months to get next quarter's GDP report, you can gauge the potential strength or weakness of the overall U.S. economy. Steven Sears, in his book The Indomitable Investor, suggested looking at these charts:

  • Copper prices
  • High-yield corporate bonds
  • Small-cap stocks

Copper: An Economic Indicator

You may not hear much about copper, but it's used in the manufacture of several goods and in construction. Given that manufacturing and construction make up a big chunk of economic activity, the red metal is more important than you may have thought. If you look at the chart of copper futures ($COPPER) you'll see that, in October 2022, the price of copper was trading sideways, but, in November, its price rose and trended quite a bit higher. This would have been an indication of a strengthening economy.

CHART 1: COPPER CONTINUOUS FUTURES CONTRACTS. Copper prices have been rising since November 2022. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

High-Yield Bonds: Risk On Indicator

The higher the risk, the higher the yield. That's the premise behind high-yield bonds. In short, companies that are leveraged, smaller, or just starting to grow may not have the solid balance sheets that more established companies are likely to have. If the economy slows down, investors are likely to sell the high-yield bonds and pick up the safer U.S. Treasury bonds.

Why the flight to safety? It's because when the economy is sluggish, the companies that issue the high-yield bonds tend to find it difficult to service their debts. When the economy is expanding, the opposite happens—they tend to perform better.

The chart below of the Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index ($DJCB) shows that, since the end of October 2022, the index trended higher. Similar to copper prices, high-yield corporate bond activity was also indicating economic expansion. You'll see similar action in charts of high-yield bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK).

CHART 2: HIGH-YIELD BONDS TRENDING HIGHER. The Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index ($DJCB) has been trending higher since end of October 2022.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

Small-Cap Stocks: They're Sensitive

Pull up a chart of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and you'll see similar price action (see chart 3). Since mid-October, small-cap stocks (the Russell 2000 index is made up of 2000 small companies) have been moving higher.

CHART 3: SMALL-CAP STOCKS TRENDING HIGHER. When the economy is expanding, small-cap stocks trend higher.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

Three's Company

If all three of these indicators are showing strength, you can expect the GDP number to be strong. There are times when the GDP number may not impact the markets, but, when inflation is a problem and the Fed is trying to curb it by raising interest rates, the GDP number tends to impact the markets.

This scenario is likely to play out in 2023, so it would be worth your while to set up a GDP Tracker ChartList. Want a live link to the charts used in this article? They're all right here.


Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan

Director, Site Content

StockCharts.com

 

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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