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Smart home market to grow by 15.87% Y-O-Y in 2023; Growing consumer interest in home automation will drive growth – Technavio

Smart home market to grow by 15.87% Y-O-Y in 2023; Growing consumer interest in home automation will drive growth – Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Jan. 23, 2023

NEW YORK, Jan. 23, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Smart home market insights –

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Smart home market to grow by 15.87% Y-O-Y in 2023; Growing consumer interest in home automation will drive growth - Technavio

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Jan. 23, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Smart home market insights -

  • Vendors: 15+, Including ABB Ltd., Allegion Public Ltd. Co., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., ASSA ABLOY AB, Comcast Corp., Honeywell International Inc., Hubbell Inc., Johnson Controls International Plc., Legrand SA, LG Corp., Lutron Electronics Co. Inc., Panasonic Holdings Corp., Raytheon Technologies Corp., Robert Bosch GmbH, Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., Schneider Electric SE, Snap One LLC, Vivint Smart Home Inc, among others
  • Coverage: Parent market analysis; key drivers, major trends, and challenges; customer and vendor landscape; vendor product insights and recent developments; key vendors; and market positioning of vendors
  • Segments: Application (Home entertainment, Smart appliances, Energy management, Lighting control system and HVAC, and Safety and security system), Technology (Wireless and Wired), and Geography (North America, Europe, APAC, Middle East and Africa, and South America)

To understand more about the smart home market, request a sample report

In 2017, the smart home market was valued at USD 45.33 billion. From a regional perspective, APAC held the largest market share, valued at USD 6.17 billion. The smart home market size is estimated to grow by USD 133.01 billion from 2022 to 2027 at a CAGR of 18.36% according to Technavio.

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Smart home market - Customer Landscape
To help companies evaluate and develop growth strategies, the report outlines –

  • Key purchase criteria
  • Adoption rates
  • Adoption lifecycle
  • Drivers of price sensitivity
  • For highlights on customer landscape analysis, download a sample!
Smart home market - Vendor Insights

The growing competition in the market is compelling vendors to adopt various growth strategies such as promotional activities and spending on advertisements to improve the visibility of their services. Technavio report analyzes the market's competitive landscape and offers information on several market vendors including –

  • ABB Ltd. - The company offers smart home solutions such as smart security cameras, smart light control, smart temperature control, and smart door entry system.
  • Allegion Public Ltd. Co. - The company offers smart home appliances such as smart home locks and smart home thermostats.
  • Alphabet Inc. - The company offers smart home security cameras such as Nest Cam and Nest mini through its subsidiary Google LLC.
  • Amazon.com Inc. - The company offers smart home solutions such as Alexa voice control device, which can be connected to home lighting, smart cameras, smart TVs, and thermostats.
Smart home marketMarket Dynamics

Major Drivers – 

  • Growing consumer interest in home automation
  • Increase in crowdfunding campaigns
  • Availability of a wide range of smart home products

KEY challenges – 

  • Increase in issues related to interoperability
  • Growing security and privacy concerns
  • Need for network coverage

Drivers and Challenges have an impact on market dynamics and can impact businesses. Find some insights from a sample report!

The smart home market report provides critical information and factual data, with a qualitative and quantitative study of the market based on market drivers and limitations as well as future prospects.

What are the key data covered in this Smart Home Market report?

  • CAGR of the market during the forecast period
  • Detailed information on factors that will drive the growth of the Smart Home Market between 2023 and 2027
  • Precise estimation of the size of the Smart Home Market and its contribution to the parent market
  • Accurate predictions about upcoming trends and changes in consumer behavior
  • Growth of the Smart Home Market industry across North America, Europe, APAC, Middle East and Africa, and South America
  • A thorough analysis of the market's competitive landscape and detailed information about vendors
  • Comprehensive analysis of factors that will challenge the growth of Smart Home Market vendors

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Smart Home Market Scope

Report Coverage

Details

Page number

182

Base year

2022

Historic period

2017-2021

Forecast period

2023-2027

Growth momentum & CAGR

Accelerate at a CAGR of 18.36%

Market growth 2023-2027

USD 133.01 billion

Market structure

Fragmented

YoY growth 2022-2023 (%)

15.87

Regional analysis

North America, Europe, APAC, Middle East and Africa, and South America

Performing market contribution

APAC at 37%

Key countries

US, Canada, China, Germany, and UK

Competitive landscape

Leading Vendors, Market Positioning of Vendors, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks

Key companies profiled

ABB Ltd., Allegion Public Ltd. Co., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., ASSA ABLOY AB, Comcast Corp., Honeywell International Inc., Hubbell Inc., Johnson Controls International Plc., Legrand SA, LG Corp., Lutron Electronics Co. Inc., Panasonic Holdings Corp., Raytheon Technologies Corp., Robert Bosch GmbH, Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., Schneider Electric SE, Snap One LLC, and Vivint Smart Home Inc

Market dynamics

Parent market analysis, market growth inducers and obstacles, fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, and market condition analysis for the forecast period.

Customization purview

If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized.

Table of contents:

1 Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Market overview 
    • Exhibit 01: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 02: Executive Summary – Data Table on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 03: Executive Summary – Chart on Global Market Characteristics
    • Exhibit 04: Executive Summary – Chart on Market by Geography
    • Exhibit 05: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Application
    • Exhibit 06: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Technology
    • Exhibit 07: Executive Summary – Chart on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 08: Executive Summary – Data Table on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 09: Executive Summary – Chart on Vendor Market Positioning

2 Market Landscape

  • 2.1 Market ecosystem 
    • Exhibit 10: Parent market
    • Exhibit 11: Market Characteristics

3 Market Sizing

  • 3.1 Market definition 
    • Exhibit 12: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition
  • 3.2 Market segment analysis 
    • Exhibit 13: Market segments
  • 3.3 Market size 2022
  • 3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 14: Chart on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 15: Data Table on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 16: Chart on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 17: Data Table on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)

4 Historic Market Size

  • 4.1 Global smart home market 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 18: Historic Market Size – Data Table on Global smart home market 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)
  • 4.2 Application Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 19: Historic Market Size – Application Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)
  • 4.3 Technology Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 20: Historic Market Size – Technology Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)
  • 4.4 Geography Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 21: Historic Market Size – Geography Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)
  • 4.5 Country Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 22: Historic Market Size – Country Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)

5 Five Forces Analysis

  • 5.1 Five forces summary 
    • Exhibit 23: Five forces analysis - Comparison between 2022 and 2027
  • 5.2 Bargaining power of buyers 
    • Exhibit 24: Chart on Bargaining power of buyers – Impact of key factors 2022 and 2027
  • 5.3 Bargaining power of suppliers 
    • Exhibit 25: Bargaining power of suppliers – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.4 Threat of new entrants 
    • Exhibit 26: Threat of new entrants – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.5 Threat of substitutes 
    • Exhibit 27: Threat of substitutes – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.6 Threat of rivalry 
    • Exhibit 28: Threat of rivalry – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.7 Market condition 
    • Exhibit 29: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2022 and 2027

6 Market Segmentation by Application

  • 6.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 30: Chart on Application - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 31: Data Table on Application - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.2 Comparison by Application 
    • Exhibit 32: Chart on Comparison by Application
    • Exhibit 33: Data Table on Comparison by Application
  • 6.3 Home entertainment - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 34: Chart on Home entertainment - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 35: Data Table on Home entertainment - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 36: Chart on Home entertainment - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 37: Data Table on Home entertainment - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.4 Smart appliances - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 38: Chart on Smart appliances - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 39: Data Table on Smart appliances - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 40: Chart on Smart appliances - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 41: Data Table on Smart appliances - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.5 Energy management - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 42: Chart on Energy management - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 43: Data Table on Energy management - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 44: Chart on Energy management - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 45: Data Table on Energy management - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.6 Lighting control system and HVAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 46: Chart on Lighting control system and HVAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 47: Data Table on Lighting control system and HVAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 48: Chart on Lighting control system and HVAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 49: Data Table on Lighting control system and HVAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.7 Safety and security system - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 50: Chart on Safety and security system - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 51: Data Table on Safety and security system - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 52: Chart on Safety and security system - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 53: Data Table on Safety and security system - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.8 Market opportunity by Application 
    • Exhibit 54: Market opportunity by Application ($ billion)

7 Market Segmentation by Technology

  • 7.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 55: Chart on Technology - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 56: Data Table on Technology - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.2 Comparison by Technology 
    • Exhibit 57: Chart on Comparison by Technology
    • Exhibit 58: Data Table on Comparison by Technology
  • 7.3 Wireless - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 59: Chart on Wireless - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 60: Data Table on Wireless - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 61: Chart on Wireless - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 62: Data Table on Wireless - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.4 Wired - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 63: Chart on Wired - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 64: Data Table on Wired - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 65: Chart on Wired - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 66: Data Table on Wired - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.5 Market opportunity by Technology 
    • Exhibit 67: Market opportunity by Technology ($ billion)

8 Customer Landscape

  • 8.1 Customer landscape overview 
    • Exhibit 68: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria

9 Geographic Landscape

  • 9.1 Geographic segmentation 
    • Exhibit 69: Chart on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 70: Data Table on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.2 Geographic comparison 
    • Exhibit 71: Chart on Geographic comparison
    • Exhibit 72: Data Table on Geographic comparison
  • 9.3 North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 73: Chart on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 74: Data Table on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 75: Chart on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 76: Data Table on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.4 Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 77: Chart on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 78: Data Table on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 79: Chart on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 80: Data Table on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.5 APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 81: Chart on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 82: Data Table on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 83: Chart on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 84: Data Table on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.6 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 85: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 86: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 87: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 88: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.7 South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 89: Chart on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 90: Data Table on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 91: Chart on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 92: Data Table on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.8 US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 93: Chart on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 94: Data Table on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 95: Chart on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 96: Data Table on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.9 Germany - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 97: Chart on Germany - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 98: Data Table on Germany - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 99: Chart on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 100: Data Table on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.10 China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 101: Chart on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 102: Data Table on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 103: Chart on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 104: Data Table on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.11 UK - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 105: Chart on UK - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 106: Data Table on UK - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 107: Chart on UK - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 108: Data Table on UK - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.12 Canada - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 109: Chart on Canada - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 110: Data Table on Canada - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 111: Chart on Canada - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 112: Data Table on Canada - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.13 Market opportunity by geography 
    • Exhibit 113: Market opportunity by geography ($ billion)

10 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends

  • 10.1 Market drivers
  • 10.2 Market challenges
  • 10.3 Impact of drivers and challenges 
    • Exhibit 114: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2022 and 2027
  • 10.4 Market trends

11 Vendor Landscape

  • 11.1 Overview
  • 11.2 Vendor landscape 
    • Exhibit 115: Overview on Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
  • 11.3 Landscape disruption 
    • Exhibit 116: Overview on factors of disruption
  • 11.4 Industry risks 
    • Exhibit 117: Impact of key risks on business

12 Vendor Analysis

  • 12.1 Vendors covered 
    • Exhibit 118: Vendors covered
  • 12.2 Market positioning of vendors 
    • Exhibit 119: Matrix on vendor position and classification
  • 12.3 ABB Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 120: ABB Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 121: ABB Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 122: ABB Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 123: ABB Ltd. - Segment focus
  • 12.4 Allegion Public Ltd. Co. 
    • Exhibit 124: Allegion Public Ltd. Co. - Overview
    • Exhibit 125: Allegion Public Ltd. Co. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 126: Allegion Public Ltd. Co. - Key news
    • Exhibit 127: Allegion Public Ltd. Co. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 128: Allegion Public Ltd. Co. - Segment focus
  • 12.5 Alphabet Inc. 
    • Exhibit 129: Alphabet Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 130: Alphabet Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 131: Alphabet Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 132: Alphabet Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 133: Alphabet Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.6 Amazon.com Inc. 
    • Exhibit 134: Amazon.com Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 135: Amazon.com Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 136: Amazon.com Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 137: Amazon.com Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 138: Amazon.com Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.7 Apple Inc. 
    • Exhibit 139: Apple Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 140: Apple Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 141: Apple Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 142: Apple Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 143: Apple Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.8 ASSA ABLOY AB 
    • Exhibit 144: ASSA ABLOY AB - Overview
    • Exhibit 145: ASSA ABLOY AB - Business segments
    • Exhibit 146: ASSA ABLOY AB - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 147: ASSA ABLOY AB - Segment focus
  • 12.9 Honeywell International Inc. 
    • Exhibit 148: Honeywell International Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 149: Honeywell International Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 150: Honeywell International Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 151: Honeywell International Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 152: Honeywell International Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.10 Johnson Controls International Plc. 
    • Exhibit 153: Johnson Controls International Plc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 154: Johnson Controls International Plc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 155: Johnson Controls International Plc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 156: Johnson Controls International Plc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 157: Johnson Controls International Plc. - Segment focus
  • 12.11 Legrand SA 
    • Exhibit 158: Legrand SA - Overview
    • Exhibit 159: Legrand SA - Business segments
    • Exhibit 160: Legrand SA - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 161: Legrand SA - Segment focus
  • 12.12 LG Corp. 
    • Exhibit 162: LG Corp. - Overview
    • Exhibit 163: LG Corp. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 164: LG Corp. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 165: LG Corp. - Segment focus
  • 12.13 Panasonic Holdings Corp. 
    • Exhibit 166: Panasonic Holdings Corp. - Overview
    • Exhibit 167: Panasonic Holdings Corp. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 168: Panasonic Holdings Corp. - Key news
    • Exhibit 169: Panasonic Holdings Corp. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 170: Panasonic Holdings Corp. - Segment focus
  • 12.14 Raytheon Technologies Corp. 
    • Exhibit 171: Raytheon Technologies Corp. - Overview
    • Exhibit 172: Raytheon Technologies Corp. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 173: Raytheon Technologies Corp. - Key news
    • Exhibit 174: Raytheon Technologies Corp. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 175: Raytheon Technologies Corp. - Segment focus
  • 12.15 Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 176: Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 177: Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 178: Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. - Key news
    • Exhibit 179: Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 180: Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. - Segment focus
  • 12.16 Schneider Electric SE 
    • Exhibit 181: Schneider Electric SE - Overview
    • Exhibit 182: Schneider Electric SE - Business segments
    • Exhibit 183: Schneider Electric SE - Key news
    • Exhibit 184: Schneider Electric SE - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 185: Schneider Electric SE - Segment focus
  • 12.17 Snap One LLC 
    • Exhibit 186: Snap One LLC - Overview
    • Exhibit 187: Snap One LLC - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 188: Snap One LLC - Key news
    • Exhibit 189: Snap One LLC - Key offerings

13 Appendix

  • 13.1 Scope of the report
  • 13.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist 
    • Exhibit 190: Inclusions checklist
    • Exhibit 191: Exclusions checklist
  • 13.3 Currency conversion rates for US$ 
    • Exhibit 192: Currency conversion rates for US$
  • 13.4 Research methodology 
    • Exhibit 193: Research methodology
    • Exhibit 194: Validation techniques employed for market sizing
    • Exhibit 195: Information sources
  • 13.5 List of abbreviations 
    • Exhibit 196: List of abbreviations
About Us

Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focuses on emerging market trends and provides actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions. With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio's report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning across 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio's comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.

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Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 13.9% YoY; New Listings up 9.5% YoY

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending February 10, 2024• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 13.9% above year ago levels.

For a 14th …

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Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending February 10, 2024
Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 13.9% above year ago levels.

For a 14th consecutive week, active listings registered above prior year level, which means that today’s home shoppers have more homes to choose from that aren’t already in the process of being sold. The added inventory has certainly improved conditions from this time one year ago, but overall inventory is still low. For the month as a whole, January inventory is down nearly 40% below 2017 to 2019 levels.

New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 9.5% from one year ago.

Newly listed homes were above last year’s levels for the 16th week in a row. While the jump was not as big as the one we observed in the previous week (12.8%), it was still an encouraging rate, which could further contribute to a recovery in active listings meaning more options for home shoppers
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 14th consecutive week following 20 consecutive weeks with a YoY decrease in inventory.  

Inventory is still historically very low.

New listings really collapsed a year ago, so the YoY comparison for new listings is easier now - although new listings remain well below "typical pre-pandemic levels", new listings are now up YoY for the 16th consecutive week.

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EU Markets Not Immune From New World Disorder Of ‘No Article V’ Trump Office

EU Markets Not Immune From New World Disorder Of ‘No Article V’ Trump Office

By Teeuwe Mevissen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

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EU Markets Not Immune From New World Disorder Of 'No Article V' Trump Office

By Teeuwe Mevissen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

This week shocked European leaders from Helsinki to Brussels and back via Berlin to Warsaw without skipping any of the other European NATO member capitals in Europe. What happened? During one of Trump’s campaign rallies Trump said that he would sort of encourage Russia to do whatever it wanted with NATO members that have not been meeting their defense spending fair share of 2% of GDP.

While this remark directly undermines NATO’s most crucial article V - which calls for military involvement of all NATO member countries if one of its members were to be attacked - it could hardly be real news for most of those ‘shocked’ European ‘leaders’.

Indeed it was nobody else but Trump who already told von der Leyen in 2020 that: "You need to understand that if Europe is under attack we will never come to help you and to support you," .

While it is no secret that Von der Leyen already failed miserably during her term as a minister of defence for Germany, she apparently failed again in taking Trump's words seriously back in 2020. While Trump’s recent NATO comments are everything but helping to advance America’s position on the global stage, Von der Leyen and many of her colleagues in Brussels and other mainly Western European leaders, failed to do what is necessary to prepare for a potential return of Trump or the return of his ideas embodied by someone else. They may now be coming around of that view, seeing Von der Leyen’s interview in the FT today, but precious time has been wasted.

Now imagine that Trump would win and would return to pro-fossil fuel policies that would make the US largely if not totally independent from any fossil fuels from abroad. He might pursue an isolationist approach here too, leaving the EU to scramble for much needed cheap energy from the Middle East.

Could the EU protect crucial sea lanes on its own?

That is doubtful, to say the least.

So what European leader could step up and take the lead in the much needed process to get Europe ready to engage effectively in a mass military build-up campaign fast should that turn out to be necessary?

That certainly does not seem to be Rutte as he has been responsible for the most dramatic cuts of the Dutch defence budget during his record long rein in the Netherlands.. Still he is the top favourite in securing the role of head of NATO. However, it must also be said that he has been on the forefront in supporting Ukraine and was one of the first Western leaders to provide Ukraine with fighter jets. Still it sometimes seems that for people who govern, failing to do your job properly is no barrier to continue to govern. And to be very clear, the very same goes for Trump. All of this seems to be indicating that international anarchy and global chaos resulting from it might be here to stay for the foreseeable future and markets will not be immune to this new world disorder.

One example of how for instance increasing rivalry between the West and China continues to plague companies that do business in China, was yesterday’s news regarding Germany’s automobile giant Volkswagen. Yesterday saw German luxury cars being impounded by the US after it became known that subcomponents in those cars were coming from the Xinjiang autonomous region and made by forced labour.

Or what to think of the fact that the large asset manager JP Morgan hires former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley to advise the bank’s board of directors, senior leaders and clients on dangers around the world.

Does anybody need more proof that markets will not be immune to a new world in disorder? 

Turning back to Europe, it remains to be seen what the impact will be of Europe seriously stepping up its efforts to rebuilt a defence industry but it is likely to be an increase of taxes and a decrease of the welfare system. On a 'positive' note: The European Council and Parliament reached a provisional agreement on new budget rules last Saturday that would give member states more budgetary leeway if they carry out reforms and invest in the green and digital transition, strengthening social resilience and, where necessary, defence.

One thing is sure, peace dividend will be something of the past and again certainly European financial markets will not be immune for a new world disorder.

Looking at what is happening today we saw UK retail sales coming in much higher than expected. Overall retail sales gained 0.7% y/y where a decline of -1.6% was expected. On a monthly base the rise was 3.4% vs an expected rise of 1.5%. However looking at those volumes the data shows the picture that measured in volumes, retail sales are still below pre pandemic levels. EUR/GBP therefore moves slightly up today mainly indicating a weaker pound with the current EUR/GBP exchange rate approaching the level of 0.86.

Next to that were the final inflation figures from France, which confirmed earlier estimates that prices declined  0.2% m/m but on a yearly base (3.4%) still exceed the ECB’s target level of approximately 2%. It must however be said that the data includes January discounts which are reflected by a sharp decline of prices for shoes and clothing (-9.2% m/m) although prices for transport also dropped with 4.8% m/m.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/16/2024 - 11:40

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Fed Chair Powell Just Said The Quiet Part Out Loud

Fed Chair Powell Just Said The Quiet Part Out Loud

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Regarding the surprisingly strong…

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Fed Chair Powell Just Said The Quiet Part Out Loud

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. The media hopes you didn’t hear it as we head into a contentious election in November.

Over the last several months, we have seen repeated employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that crushed economists’ estimates and seemed to defy logic. Such is particularly the case when you read commentary about the state of the average American as follows.

“New Yorker Lohanny Santos publicly vented her frustration after her attempts to go door-to-door with her CV in hand in the hope of finally landing a job were unsuccessful.

It would appear that other young jobseekers could relate to Lohanny’s struggles. The USA and Canada rank fifth out of seven when it comes to youth unemployment and third when it comes to total unemployment, according to World Bank data based on an International Labor Organization model for 2020, as per Statista.” – Business Insider

Even M.B.A.s are finding it difficult.

“Jenna Starr stuck a blue Post-it Note to her monitor a few months after getting her M.B.A. from Yale University last May. “Get yourself the job,” it read. It wasn’t until last week—when she received a long-awaited offer—that she could finally take it down.

For months, Starr has been one of a large number of 2023 M.B.A. graduates whose job searches have collided with a slowdown in hiring for well-paid, white-collar positions. Her search for a job in sustainability began before graduation, and she applied for more than 100 openings since, including in the field she used to work in—nonprofit fundraising.” – WSJ

These stories are not unique. If you Google “Can’t find a job,” you will get many article links. The question, of course, is why individuals with college degrees, no less, are having such a tough time finding employment. After all, aside from record-smashing employment reports, we also continue to see near-record low jobless claims and high numbers of job openings, as shown below.

The Washington Post touched on part of the problem and why the unemployment rate for college graduates is higher than for all workers.

“Part of the problem is that the industries with the biggest worker shortages — including restaurants, hotels, daycares, and nursing homes — aren’t necessarily where recent graduates want to work. Meanwhile, the industries where they do want to work — tech, consulting, finance, media — are announcing layoffs and rethinking hiring plans.”

As the Washington Post summed up:

“The result is yet another disruption for a generation of college graduates who have already had crucial years of schooling upended by the pandemic. In interviews, many said they’d struggled to adjust to remote-learning in early 2020 and felt like they had missed out on opportunities to forge connections with professors, employers and other students that could have been crucial in lining up for postgraduate work. Now, as they enter the workforce, they say they’re feeling increasingly disillusioned about the economy, which is fueling political discontent and causing them to rethink the financial independence they thought they’d achieve after college.”

Of course, it isn’t just the shuttering of the economy and the shift to working from home causing the problem. It is also the shift in demand from consumers to more service-oriented conveniences, combined with the need by employers to maintain profitability.

Fed Chair Powell Says The Quiet Part

Since the turn of the century, the U.S. economy has shifted from a manufacturing-based economy to a service-oriented one. There are two primary reasons for this.

The first is that the “cost of labor” in the U.S. to manufacture goods is too high. Domestic workers want high wages, benefits, paid vacations, personal time off, etc. On top of that are the numerous regulations on businesses from OSHA to Sarbanes-Oxley, FDA, EPA, and many others. All those additional costs are a factor in producing goods or services. Therefore, corporations needed to offshore production to countries with lower labor costs and higher production rates to manufacture goods competitively.

During an interview with Greg Hays of Carrier Industries, the reasoning for moving a plant from Mexico to Indiana during the Trump Administration was most interesting.

So what’s good about Mexico? We have a very talented workforce in Mexico. Wages are obviously significantly lower. About 80% lower on average. But absenteeism runs about 1%. Turnover runs about 2%. Very, very dedicated workforce.

Which is much higher versus America. And I think that’s just part of these — the jobs, again, are not jobs on an assembly line that [Amerians] really find all that attractive over the long term.

Fed Chair Powell emphasized this point in a recent 60-Minutes Interview. To wit:

“SCOTT PELLEY: Why was immigration important?

FED CHAIR POWELL: Because, you know, immigrants come in, and they tend to work at a rate that is at or above that for non-immigrantsImmigrants who come to the country tend to be in the workforce at a slightly higher level than native Americans. But that’s primarily because of the age difference. They tend to skew younger.

The suppression of wages, increased productivity to reduce the amount of required labor, and offshoring has been a multi-decade process to increase corporate profitability.

A Native Problem

Following the pandemic-related shutdown, corporations faced multiple threats to profitability from supply constraints, a shift to increased services, and a lack of labor. At the same time, mass immigration (both legal and illegal) provided a workforce willing to fill lower-wage paying jobs and work regardless of the shutdown. Since 2019, the cumulative employment change has favored foreign-born workers, who have gained almost 2.5 million jobs, while native-born workers have lost 1.3 million. Unsurprisingly, foreign-born workers also lost far fewer jobs during the pandemic shutdown.

Given that the bulk of employment continues to be in lower-wage paying service jobs (i.e., restaurants, retail, leisure, and hospitality) such is why part-time jobs have dominated full-time in recent reports. Relative to the working-age population, full-time employment has dropped sharply after failing to recover pre-pandemic levels.

However, as noted, full-time employment has declined since 2000 as services dominate labor-intensive processes such as manufacturing. This is because we “export” our “inflation” and import “deflation.” We do this to buy flat-screen televisions for $299 versus $3,999. Such is also why the economy continues to grow slower, requiring ever-increasing debt levels.

For recent college graduates, this all leads to a more dire outlook.

Immigration Is Needed, But It Has Consequences

To keep an economy growing, you must have population growth. In other words, “demographics are destiny.” As such, there are two ways to obtain more robust population growth rates – natural births and immigration. As shown below, the fertility rate in the United States is problematic in that we aren’t producing enough children to replace an aging workforce.

Such is particularly problematic given the rapid aging of older adults versus a declining working-age population. Such means the underfunding of entitlements will continue to grow, requiring more debt issuance to fill the gap.

However, there is a vast difference between immigration policies that import highly skilled workers, capital, and education versus those that don’t. Merit-based immigration policies bring workers who earn higher salaries, create businesses, employ labor, and create tax revenues and other economic contributions. However, current policies are creating a rush of lower-skilled, uneducated labor that will work for cheaper wages, produce less revenue, and are subsidized by tax-payers through welfare programs. As noted above, these workers tend to fill the jobs in the service areas of the economy, thereby displacing native-born workers. Such was a point made by the WSJ:

“Before the pandemic, foreign-born adults were almost as likely as the overall population to hold at least a bachelor’s degree. This was mainly because of higher educational attainment among immigrants from Asia, Africa, and Europe, which offset lower levels of schooling among people from Mexico and Central America.”

Post-pandemic, this has not been the case, which is impacting native-born employment. This is not a new issue, but one addressed by Bill Clinton in the 1995 State of the Union Address:

“The jobs they hold might otherwise be held by citizens or legal immigrants; the public services they use impose burdens on our taxpayers.”

Such is the natural consequence of a change in the economy’s demands and the need for corporations to maintain profitability in an ultimately deflationary environment.

Conclusion

While there is much debate over immigration, most of the arguments do not differentiate between legal and illegal immigration. There are certainly arguments that can be made on both sides. However, what is less debatable is the impact that immigration is having on employment. Of course, as native-born workers continue to demand higher wages, benefits, and other tax-funded support, those costs must be passed on by the companies creating those products and services. At the same time, consumers are demanding lower prices.

That imbalance between input costs and selling price drives companies to aggressively seek options to reduce the highest cost to any business – labor. Such was discussed in our article on the cost and consequences of the demand for increased minimum wages.

  • Reductions in employment would initially be concentrated at firms where higher prices quickly reduce sales. 

  • Over a longer period, however, more firms would replace low-wage workers with higher-wage workers, machines, and other substitutes.

  • As employers pass some of those costs on to consumers, consumers purchase fewer goods and services.

  • Consequently, the employers produce fewer goods and services.

  • When the cost of employing low-wage workers rises, the cost of investing in machines and technology goes down.” – Congressional Budget Office.

Such is why full-time employment has declined since 2000 despite the surge in the Internet economy, robotics, and artificial intelligence. It is also why wage growth fails to grow fast enough to sustain the cost of living for the average American. These technological developments increased employee productivity, reducing the need for additional labor.

Unfortunately, these tales of college graduates expecting high-paying jobs will likely continue to find it increasingly complicated. Particularly as “Artificial Intelligence” becomes cheap enough to displace higher-paid employees.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/16/2024 - 11:00

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