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Small Business Hiring and Wage Growth Strength Continues; Growth Rates Moderate Slightly from Previous Month

Small Business Hiring and Wage Growth Strength Continues; Growth Rates Moderate Slightly from Previous Month
PR Newswire
ROCHESTER, N.Y., July 5, 2022

ROCHESTER, N.Y., July 5, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Small businesses continued to add jobs in June and …

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Small Business Hiring and Wage Growth Strength Continues; Growth Rates Moderate Slightly from Previous Month

PR Newswire

ROCHESTER, N.Y., July 5, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Small businesses continued to add jobs in June and worker wages continued to grow at a strong rate, but the pace of growth moderated slightly from previous month. These insights are according to the latest Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch. The Small Business Jobs Index for June was 100.81, up 2.32 percent from over a year ago and -0.06 percent from the previous month. Average hourly earnings growth for the month stood at 5.10 percent, compared to 5.16 percent from May 2022.  

"The small business economy still is in recovery phase with continued job gains, and, surprisingly, moderating wage gains," said James Diffley, chief regional economist at IHS Markit.

"Our June report shows continued job growth for small businesses. The pace of that growth slowed slightly from the previous month, however," said Martin Mucci, Paychex CEO. "This month's data also showed a slight decline in hourly earnings growth, the first decrease in 13 months. Despite this, growth remains strong, above five percent."

In further detail, the June report showed:

  • At 100.81, the national jobs index is up 2.32 percent over a year ago.
  • Hourly earnings have increased $1.48 during the past year, now reaching $30.42.
  • The South continued as the top region for small business job growth, with Texas and Dallas leading among states and metros, respectively.
  • The South was also the top region for hourly earnings growth.
  • Ohio was the top state for hourly earnings growth, followed closely by Arizona and Florida.
  • Leisure and hospitality reported the strongest hourly earnings growth among industry sectors for the 16th consecutive month.
  • Hourly earnings growth in the Construction sector hit 5.00 percent and again posted a new record level since reporting began in 2011.

Paychex solutions reach 1 in 12 American private-sector employees, making the Small Business Employment Watch an industry benchmark. Drawing from the payroll data of approximately 350,000 Paychex clients with fewer than 50 employees, the monthly report offers analysis of national employment and wage trends, as well as examines regional, state, metro, and industry sector activity.

The complete results for June, including interactive charts detailing all data, are available at www.paychex.com/watch. Highlights are available below.

National Jobs Index
  • At 100.81, the national index moderated -0.06 percent in June, but has increased 2.32 percent from June 2021.
  • Small business job growth remains at its highest pre-pandemic level since June 2016, despite slowing for the fourth consecutive month to 100.81.
  • June's one-month change rate (-0.06 percent) was modest compared to the 0.15 percent and 0.27 percent declines in April and May.
National Wage Report
  • At 5.10 percent in June, hourly earnings growth slowed for the first time since May 2021.
  • Weekly earnings growth improved for the fourth straight month to 4.47 percent in June, though the month-to-month gains are diminishing.
  • At -0.46 percent, year-over-year weekly earnings worked growth has been negative for the past 14 months.
Regional Jobs Index   
  • At 101.10, the South slowed 0.07 percent in June, but continues as the strongest region for small business employment growth for the third consecutive month.
  • The Midwest gained 0.28 percent in June to bring its index to 100.33. The Midwest has been last among regions for the past year, but the gap is closing.
  • Down 0.37 percent in June and 1.10 percent since February, the West had its weakest one-month change in nearly two years as the pace of small business employment growth has quickly decelerated in the region.

Note: Percentages displayed in the regional heat map reflect 12-month changes.

Regional Wage Report   
  • The South leads regions in hourly earnings growth (5.44 percent) and weekly earnings growth (4.86 percent), though not by a wide margin.
  • The Northeast is the only region with hourly earnings growth below five percent (4.54 percent) and weekly earnings growth below four percent (3.85 percent).
  • Weekly hours worked growth is similarly negative across all regions, ranging from -0.45 percent in the Midwest to -0.61 percent in the West.

Note: Percentages displayed in the regional heat map reflect 12-month changes.

State Jobs Index
  • Texas (102.85), followed closely by North Carolina (102.75), led states in the rate of small business employment growth in June.
  • Midwest states' Indiana and Illinois had the sharpest gains in June, 0.91 percent and 0.69 percent, respectively.
  • Ranked fifth among states in April, the California index fell 0.21 percent in May and 0.65 percent in June to 100.43 and now ranks 16th.

Note: Analysis is provided for the 20 largest states based on U.S. population.

State Wage Report
  • Ohio, trailed by Arizona and Florida, leads states in hourly earnings growth, above six percent. Virginia and Pennsylvania trail with growth below four percent.
  • Tennessee ranks last among states in weekly earnings growth (3.27 percent) and weekly hours worked growth (-1.01 percent).
  • Texas is again the only state with positive weekly hours worked growth, at a modest 0.07 percent.

Note: Analysis is provided for the 20 largest states based on U.S. population.

Metropolitan Jobs Index 
  • Texas metros Dallas (105.43) and Houston (101.90) are the top two metros for small business employment growth in June.
  • All of the Pacific metros analyzed fell sizably in June, with San Diego falling the most (-1.26 percent). Seattle (-0.87 percent), Riverside (-0.83 percent), San Francisco (-0.70 percent), and Los Angeles (-0.36 percent) also slowed.
  • Chicago jumped 0.83 percent in June, best among metros. At 101.64, Chicago has improved 3.94 percent from last year and now ranks fourth among metros.

Note: Analysis is provided for the 20 largest metro areas based on U.S. population.

Metropolitan Wage Report
  • At 7.10 percent, Dallas leads metros in hourly earnings growth.
  • Florida metros Tampa and Miami lead metros in weekly earnings growth, 6.10 percent and 5.97 percent, respectively.
  • Washington is the only metro with hourly earnings growth below four percent (3.81 percent).

Note: Analysis is provided for the 20 largest metro areas based on U.S. population.

Industry Jobs Index
  • With its index decelerating 0.78 percent to 103.20 in June, the pace of small business employment growth slowed the most in the leisure and hospitality sector for the fifth consecutive month.
  • Professional and business services improved to 99.42 in June, its highest index level since October 2018. Professional and business services gained 0.44 percent in June, best among sectors, and improved to fourth among sectors, its highest ranking since before the pandemic.

Note: Analysis is provided for seven major industry sectors. Definitions of each industry sector can be found here. The other services (except public administration) industry category includes religious, civic, and social organizations, as well as personal services, including automotive and household repair, salons, drycleaners, and other businesses.

Industry Wage Report 
  • All sectors analyzed have hourly earnings growth above four percent in June, with education and health services finally reaching that level as well as a new record level for the eighth consecutive month.
  • For the third consecutive month, leisure and hospitality has the strongest hourly earnings growth (7.49 percent) and the weakest weekly hours worked growth (-1.93 percent) among sectors.
  • At 6.26 percent, other services (except public administration) topped weekly earnings growth among sectors in June, quickly accelerating from last place in February 2022 (2.67 percent).

Note: Analysis is provided for seven major industry sectors. Definitions of each industry sector can be found here. The other services (except public administration) industry category includes religious, civic, and social organizations, as well as personal services, including automotive and household repair, salons, drycleaners, and other businesses.

For more information about the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch, visit www.paychex.com/watch and sign up to receive monthly Employment Watch alerts.

*Information regarding the professions included in the industry data can be found at the Bureau of Labor Statistics website.

About the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch

The Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch is released each month by Paychex, Inc., a leading provider of integrated human capital management software solutions for human resources, payroll, benefits, and insurance services, and IHS Markit, a world leader in critical information, analytics, and expertise. Focused exclusively on small business with fewer than 50 employees, the monthly report offers analysis of national employment and wage trends, as well as examines regional, state, metro, and industry sector activity. Drawing from the payroll data of approximately 350,000 Paychex clients, this powerful tool delivers real-time insights into the small business trends driving the U.S. economy.

About Paychex

Paychex, Inc. (Nasdaq: PAYX) is a leading provider of integrated human capital management solutions for human resources, payroll, benefits, and insurance services. By combining innovative software-as-a-service technology and mobility platform with dedicated, personal service, Paychex empowers business owners to focus on the growth and management of their business. Backed by 50 years of industry expertise, Paychex serves more than 730,000 payroll clients as of May 31, 2022 in the U.S. and Europe, and pays one out of every 12 American private sector employees. Learn more about Paychex by visiting www.paychex.com and stay connected on Twitter and LinkedIn.

About IHS Markit (www.ihsmarkit.com

IHS Markit (NYSE: INFO) is a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers in business, finance and government, improving their operational efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed, confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 business and government customers, including 80 percent of the Fortune Global 500 and the world's leading financial institutions. Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable, profitable growth.

IHS Markit is a registered trademark of IHS Markit Ltd. and/or its affiliates. All other company and product names may be trademarks of their respective owners © 2021 IHS Markit Ltd. All rights reserved.

Media Contacts
Lisa Fleming
Paychex, Inc.
+1 585-387-6402
lfleming@paychex.com 
@Paychex 

Kate Smith
IHS Markit
+1 781-301-9311
katherine.smith@ihsmarkit.com 

 

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Government

Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat"…

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Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat" to the health of the US population - a sharp decline from a high of 67% in July 2020.

(SARMDY/Shutterstock)

What's more, the Pew Research Center survey conducted from Feb. 7 to Feb. 11 showed that just 10% of Americans are concerned that they will  catch the disease and require hospitalization.

"This data represents a low ebb of public concern about the virus that reached its height in the summer and fall of 2020, when as many as two-thirds of Americans viewed COVID-19 as a major threat to public health," reads the report, which was published March 7.

According to the survey, half of the participants understand the significance of researchers and healthcare providers in understanding and treating long COVID - however 27% of participants consider this issue less important, while 22% of Americans are unaware of long COVID.

What's more, while Democrats were far more worried than Republicans in the past, that gap has narrowed significantly.

"In the pandemic’s first year, Democrats were routinely about 40 points more likely than Republicans to view the coronavirus as a major threat to the health of the U.S. population. This gap has waned as overall levels of concern have fallen," reads the report.

More via the Epoch Times;

The survey found that three in ten Democrats under 50 have received an updated COVID-19 vaccine, compared with 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older.

Moreover, 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older have received the updated COVID-19 vaccine, while only 24 percent of Republicans ages 65 and older have done so.

“This 42-point partisan gap is much wider now than at other points since the start of the outbreak. For instance, in August 2021, 93 percent of older Democrats and 78 percent of older Republicans said they had received all the shots needed to be fully vaccinated (a 15-point gap),” it noted.

COVID-19 No Longer an Emergency

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently issued its updated recommendations for the virus, which no longer require people to stay home for five days after testing positive for COVID-19.

The updated guidance recommends that people who contracted a respiratory virus stay home, and they can resume normal activities when their symptoms improve overall and their fever subsides for 24 hours without medication.

“We still must use the commonsense solutions we know work to protect ourselves and others from serious illness from respiratory viruses, this includes vaccination, treatment, and staying home when we get sick,” CDC director Dr. Mandy Cohen said in a statement.

The CDC said that while the virus remains a threat, it is now less likely to cause severe illness because of widespread immunity and improved tools to prevent and treat the disease.

Importantly, states and countries that have already adjusted recommended isolation times have not seen increased hospitalizations or deaths related to COVID-19,” it stated.

The federal government suspended its free at-home COVID-19 test program on March 8, according to a website set up by the government, following a decrease in COVID-19-related hospitalizations.

According to the CDC, hospitalization rates for COVID-19 and influenza diseases remain “elevated” but are decreasing in some parts of the United States.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 22:45

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International

Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says “I Would Support”

Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says "I Would Support"

Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump…

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Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run - Musk Says "I Would Support"

Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump into the race to become the next Senate GOP leader, and Elon Musk was quick to support the idea. Republicans must find a successor for periodically malfunctioning Mitch McConnell, who recently announced he'll step down in November, though intending to keep his Senate seat until his term ends in January 2027, when he'd be within weeks of turning 86. 

So far, the announced field consists of two quintessential establishment types: John Cornyn of Texas and John Thune of South Dakota. While John Barrasso's name had been thrown around as one of "The Three Johns" considered top contenders, the Wyoming senator on Tuesday said he'll instead seek the number two slot as party whip. 

Paul used X to tease his potential bid for the position which -- if the GOP takes back the upper chamber in November -- could graduate from Minority Leader to Majority Leader. He started by telling his 5.1 million followers he'd had lots of people asking him about his interest in running...

...then followed up with a poll in which he predictably annihilated Cornyn and Thune, taking a 96% share as of Friday night, with the other two below 2% each. 

Elon Musk was quick to back the idea of Paul as GOP leader, while daring Cornyn and Thune to follow Paul's lead by throwing their names out for consideration by the Twitter-verse X-verse. 

Paul has been a stalwart opponent of security-state mass surveillance, foreign interventionism -- to include shoveling billions of dollars into the proxy war in Ukraine -- and out-of-control spending in general. He demonstrated the latter passion on the Senate floor this week as he ridiculed the latest kick-the-can spending package:   

In February, Paul used Senate rules to force his colleagues into a grueling Super Bowl weekend of votes, as he worked to derail a $95 billion foreign aid bill. "I think we should stay here as long as it takes,” said Paul. “If it takes a week or a month, I’ll force them to stay here to discuss why they think the border of Ukraine is more important than the US border.”

Don't expect a Majority Leader Paul to ditch the filibuster -- he's been a hardy user of the legislative delay tactic. In 2013, he spoke for 13 hours to fight the nomination of John Brennan as CIA director. In 2015, he orated for 10-and-a-half-hours to oppose extension of the Patriot Act

Rand Paul amid his 10 1/2 hour filibuster in 2015

Among the general public, Paul is probably best known as Capitol Hill's chief tormentor of Dr. Anthony Fauci, who was director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease during the Covid-19 pandemic. Paul says the evidence indicates the virus emerged from China's Wuhan Institute of Virology. He's accused Fauci and other members of the US government public health apparatus of evading questions about their funding of the Chinese lab's "gain of function" research, which takes natural viruses and morphs them into something more dangerous. Paul has pointedly said that Fauci committed perjury in congressional hearings and that he belongs in jail "without question."   

Musk is neither the only nor the first noteworthy figure to back Paul for party leader. Just hours after McConnell announced his upcoming step-down from leadership, independent 2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr voiced his support: 

In a testament to the extent to which the establishment recoils at the libertarian-minded Paul, mainstream media outlets -- which have been quick to report on other developments in the majority leader race -- pretended not to notice that Paul had signaled his interest in the job. More than 24 hours after Paul's test-the-waters tweet-fest began, not a single major outlet had brought it to the attention of their audience. 

That may be his strongest endorsement yet. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 20:25

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Government

The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While “Waiting” For Deporation, Asylum

The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While "Waiting" For Deporation, Asylum

Over the past several…

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The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While "Waiting" For Deporation, Asylum

Over the past several months we've pointed out that there has  been zero job creation for native-born workers since the summer of 2018...

... and that since Joe Biden was sworn into office, most of the post-pandemic job gains the administration continuously brags about have gone foreign-born (read immigrants, mostly illegal ones) workers.

And while the left might find this data almost as verboten as FBI crime statistics - as it directly supports the so-called "great replacement theory" we're not supposed to discuss - it also coincides with record numbers of illegal crossings into the United States under Biden.

In short, the Biden administration opened the floodgates, 10 million illegal immigrants poured into the country, and most of the post-pandemic "jobs recovery" went to foreign-born workers, of which illegal immigrants represent the largest chunk.

Asylum seekers from Venezuela await work permits on June 28, 2023 (via the Chicago Tribune)

'But Tyler, illegal immigrants can't possibly work in the United States whilst awaiting their asylum hearings,' one might hear from the peanut gallery. On the contrary: ever since Biden reversed a key aspect of Trump's labor policies, all illegal immigrants - even those awaiting deportation proceedings - have been given carte blanche to work while awaiting said proceedings for up to five years...

... something which even Elon Musk was shocked to learn.

Which leads us to another question: recall that the primary concern for the Biden admin for much of 2022 and 2023 was soaring prices, i.e., relentless inflation in general, and rising wages in particular, which in turn prompted even Goldman to admit two years ago that the diabolical wage-price spiral had been unleashed in the US (diabolical, because nothing absent a major economic shock, read recession or depression, can short-circuit it once it is in place).

Well, there is one other thing that can break the wage-price spiral loop: a flood of ultra-cheap illegal immigrant workers. But don't take our word for it: here is Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself during his February 60 Minutes interview:

PELLEY: Why was immigration important?

POWELL: Because, you know, immigrants come in, and they tend to work at a rate that is at or above that for non-immigrants. Immigrants who come to the country tend to be in the workforce at a slightly higher level than native Americans do. But that's largely because of the age difference. They tend to skew younger.

PELLEY: Why is immigration so important to the economy?

POWELL: Well, first of all, immigration policy is not the Fed's job. The immigration policy of the United States is really important and really much under discussion right now, and that's none of our business. We don't set immigration policy. We don't comment on it.

I will say, over time, though, the U.S. economy has benefited from immigration. And, frankly, just in the last, year a big part of the story of the labor market coming back into better balance is immigration returning to levels that were more typical of the pre-pandemic era.

PELLEY: The country needed the workers.

POWELL: It did. And so, that's what's been happening.

Translation: Immigrants work hard, and Americans are lazy. But much more importantly, since illegal immigrants will work for any pay, and since Biden's Department of Homeland Security, via its Citizenship and Immigration Services Agency, has made it so illegal immigrants can work in the US perfectly legally for up to 5 years (if not more), one can argue that the flood of illegals through the southern border has been the primary reason why inflation - or rather mostly wage inflation, that all too critical component of the wage-price spiral  - has moderated in in the past year, when the US labor market suddenly found itself flooded with millions of perfectly eligible workers, who just also happen to be illegal immigrants and thus have zero wage bargaining options.

None of this is to suggest that the relentless flood of immigrants into the US is not also driven by voting and census concerns - something Elon Musk has been pounding the table on in recent weeks, and has gone so far to call it "the biggest corruption of American democracy in the 21st century", but in retrospect, one can also argue that the only modest success the Biden admin has had in the past year - namely bringing inflation down from a torrid 9% annual rate to "only" 3% - has also been due to the millions of illegals he's imported into the country.

We would be remiss if we didn't also note that this so often carries catastrophic short-term consequences for the social fabric of the country (the Laken Riley fiasco being only the latest example), not to mention the far more dire long-term consequences for the future of the US - chief among them the trillions of dollars in debt the US will need to incur to pay for all those new illegal immigrants Democrat voters and low-paid workers. This is on top of the labor revolution that will kick in once AI leads to mass layoffs among high-paying, white-collar jobs, after which all those newly laid off native-born workers hoping to trade down to lower paying (if available) jobs will discover that hardened criminals from Honduras or Guatemala have already taken them, all thanks to Joe Biden.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 19:15

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