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Sentiment Remains Fragile Ahead of the Weekend

Sentiment Remains Fragile Ahead of the Weekend

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Overview:    The dramatic week is finishing on a quieter note.  The modest gains in US equities yesterday helped the Asia Pacific performance today.  Most markets but China and Hong Kong pared the weekly losses, and easing regulations in Australia spurred a rally in financials that saw its stock market close higher on the week.  However, the coattails were not long enough to lift Europe.  A record number of virus cases in the UK and France dampened the mood, and most markets are off around 0.5%, and US shares are also trading with a heavier bias.  European benchmark 10-year yields are 1-2 bp lower, while the US 10-year Treasury continues to hover around 66 bp.  It has been in less than a five basis point range this week.  The dollar is mixed but mostly firmer on the day before the US open.  The Australian and New Zealand dollars are leading majors, while the Norwegian krone remains near what is almost a three-month low recorded yesterday.  For the week, the Antipodeans and Scandis are off 2.7%-4.7%.  Among the emerging market currencies, the Indian rupee and Turkish lira lead the effort to pare the weekly losses.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is fractionally lower after rising almost 0.5% yesterday.  fIt is offer around 2% for the week, the largest loss in five months.  Gold is around $16 above yesterday's lows, but near $1865 is off about 4.4% for the week.  November WTI is above $40 a barrel and has firmed every session since Monday's 4% drop to cut the loss in half.   It rose in four sessions last week as well.  

Asia Pacific

Most observers focus on the quantitative, bilateral trade targets in the Phase 1 trade deal between the US and China.  There were also numerous other actions, including market access measures that were in the agreement.  Many and some say most of these are being delivered. Practical improvements in the market structure were cited by FTSE-Russell as it announced that it will include Chinese bonds in its indices starting a year from now.  Estimates suggest it could spur almost $100 bln of inflows. 

Australia announced a dramatic cut in regulatory procedures for bank lending to households and small businesses.  The burden is shifted from the lender to the borrower to provide income and spending information instead of their own lengthy (costly) verification process.  Yesterday Australia's Treasury announced wholesale reform of insolvency laws.  Both measures are aimed at strengthening economic activity in the face of the pandemic.  

The dollar recovered smartly off the JPY104 seen at the start of the week.  While it remains firm in the upper end of this week's range, the momentum has stalled near JPY105.50. About $830 mln in options between JPY105.80 and JPY105.87 expire today.  Initial support is seen near JPY105.20.  The Australian dollar held $0.7015 yesterday, its lowest level since late July.  It has traded a little above $0.7085 today, and $0.7100 is seen as initial resistance.  The US dollar's eight-week slide against the Chinese yuan, the longest in more than 2 1/2 years, ended this week with about a 0.75% advance.  The PBOC set the reference rate at CNY6.8121, which was fractionally weaker dollar than the bank models, according to Bloomberg anticipated.  

Europe


UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak will replace the furlough job program, which expires at the end of October, with a new program that is the centerpiece of the government's initiative especially given the new social restrictions.  The expiring program saw the government pick up 80% of the wages of employees that could not return to work.  The latest effort will pay subsidies to workers who cannot work more than a third of their regular hours.  Actually, the government and employers will split the wages for the hours that cannot be worked.  This might mean that some employers pay a little more than half the wages for one-third of the work. Projections suggest employees may be able to secure a little more than three-quarters of their normal wages.  Sunak also will give businesses more time to pay back government-guaranteed loans.  


Eurozone money supply growth unexpectedly slowed in August to a 9.5% pace.  Economists had expected a 10.1% pace, which would have been unchanged from the July revision (from 10.2%).  Lending to households and non-financial firms remains steady at 3.0% and 7.1%, respectively.  Separately, ECB Governing Council member Villeroy seemed to make a passionate appeal that "close to but below 2%" inflation target has been misunderstood.  Rather than be a cap, he suggested a symmetrical reading making it more like the Federal Reserve's two percent average rate.  The ECB has begun its own strategic review. 

The euro is trading within yesterday's ranges, and there is some cautiousness over its inability to push back above $1.17, where there are a 630 mln euro option that expires today.   If the $1.1685 area is the cap, then nearby support is seen near $1.1640.  The euro finished last week near $1.1840, and the 1.5%+ loss this week is the largest since April.  With today's decline, it has fallen in seven of the past 10 sessions.  The one-month risk-reversal is still favoring euro puts, but the two-month has flipped back in favor of calls.   Late Asian turnover saw the sterling pop above $1.28, a three-day high, but it met a wall of sellers in Europe and fell to new session lows a little below $1.2735.  The $1.2700-$1.2725 area offers band support and a break, puts the recent lows near $1.2675 at risk.   Sterling finished last week near $1.2915. 

America

The House of Representatives is working toward passing a $2.4 trillion stimulus bill next week along party lines.  It presents a backdown from the $3.4 trillion package approved in May.  The White House says it can see $1.5 trillion, but the Republicans have problems finding a consensus for more than $1 trillion.   The Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee was not optimistic that a deal could be worked out before the election.   The lack of new fiscal measures prompted at least two large US banks to cut Q4 GDP forecasts (one from 3.5% to 2.5%, the other from 6% to 3%).  The US reports August durable goods orders today and a sharp slowing after the 11.4% surge in July, underscoring that the strong momentum of late Q2 was fading by late Q3.  

Trudeau's Liberals modified their proposals to include maintaining income supports at the current level s looks sufficient to win over New Democrat Party.  In turn, this means that the Liberal-minority government will survive. The last three minority governments lasted an average of two years, though the roughly 1/3 of the votes garnered by the Liberals is the least.  Next month, the government is a year old. 

The central bank of Mexico delivered the 25 bp rate cut yesterday that was widely expected.  We had thought that with inflation rising sharply since April to above the target range, and the peso falling, that the chances of a cut were lower, but the target rate now stands at 4.25%.  It was the 11th cut in the cycle that began at 8.25%.  The decision was unanimous.  Its next meeting is on November 12.  The peso was already recovering before the rate announcement, and it hesitated momentarily but made new session highs later in the day.

The dollar rallied from a low at the start of the week near MXN20.8450 and peaked yesterday near MXN22.70, before reversing lower.  It met the (38.2%) retracement objective near MXN21.99.  The next important support is the MXN21.67-MXN21.77 band, but the dollar is staging a recovery late in the European morning, and a looks poised to test resistance near MXN22.40.  The US dollar is snapping a 6-week drop against the peso with an exclamation point.  Its 5% gain this week is the most in five months. The greenback is well within yesterday's range against the Canadian dollar. It is encountering some offers in the CAD1.3370 area.  A move above there could signal a re-test on the high near CAD1.3420.  It is the third consecutive weekly gain for the US dollar, the longest advance here in Q3.  



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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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