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Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in April

With the pandemic, there was a surge in 2nd home buying.I’m looking at data for some second home markets – and I’m tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes like the recent FHFA Targeted Increases to Enterprise Pricing Fr…

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With the pandemic, there was a surge in 2nd home buying.

I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes like the recent FHFA Targeted Increases to Enterprise Pricing Framework, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic.

This graph is for South Lake Tahoe since 2004 through April 2022, and shows inventory (blue), and the year-over-year (YoY) change in the median price (12-month average).

Note: The median price is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data.

Click on graph for larger image.

Following the housing bubble, prices declined for several years in South Lake Tahoe, with the median price falling about 50% from the bubble peak.

Currently inventory is still very low, but up from the record low set in February 2022, and up slightly year-over-year.  Prices are up 12.7% YoY (but the YoY change has been trending down).   

This will be interesting to watch, but so far there isn't little evidence of a 2nd home slowdown in these numbers.

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Economics

Morgan Stanley: SPX could return to its pre-pandemic 3,400 level

The S&P 500 index could return to its pre-pandemic 3,400 level in the coming months that translates to another 15% downside from here, warned a Morgan…

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The S&P 500 index could return to its pre-pandemic 3,400 level in the coming months that translates to another 15% downside from here, warned a Morgan Stanley analyst on Monday.

Don’t be fooled by the bear market rally

Michael Wilson dubs the recent bounce (about 4.0%) in U.S. equities a “bear market rally” and says investors should brace for more pain ahead as inflation and supply constraints remain a significant headwind. In his note, the analyst said:

With valuations now more attractive, equity markets so oversold an rates potentially stabilizing below 3.0%, stocks appear to have begun another material bear market rally. After that, we remain confident that lower prices are still ahead.

Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics said inflation stood at 8.30% in April – a marginal decline versus the prior month but still ahead of the Dow Jones estimate.

How to navigate the current environment?

Wilson continues to see a recession as unlikely, but agrees that the risk of such an economic downturn has certainly gone up. The U.S. economy unexpectedly shrank 1.40% in the first quarter of 2022.

That is just another reason why equity risk premium is too low, and stocks are still overpriced. The bear market won’t be over until valuations fall to levels (14 – 15x) that discount the kind of earnings cuts we envision, or earnings estimates get cut.

He recommends increasing exposure to real estate, health care, and utilities stocks to navigate the current environment, while tech and consumer discretionary stocks remain a big “no” for him.

The post Morgan Stanley: SPX could return to its pre-pandemic 3,400 level appeared first on Invezz.

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Real Estate

Is investor appetite for non-QM changing?

HousingWire chats with Steven Schwalb, Managing Partner of Angel Oak Lending about the changes investor appetite for non-QM products.
The post Is investor…

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In 2022’s changing market, non-QM has been a hot topic for many. HousingWire recently caught up with Steven Schwalb, managing partner of Angel Oak Lending, about the changes investor appetite has gone though for non-QM.

HousingWire: What is the investor appetite for non-QM and how has that changed over the past few years?

Steven Schwalb: The investor appetite continues to be strong even in today’s volatile market. Non-QM securitizations had their biggest supply year on record in 2021 and we are still hitting records today. In fact, in the first quarter of 2022, non-QM securitizations totaled $11 billion. Of that volume, $6.2 was in March. March just so happened to be a record month for Angel Oak as well.

As a leader in bringing back this asset class, we have continued to see more and more investors look to non-QM. One common criticism of these loans in the past was that they were not stress-tested and no one knew how they would perform under those conditions. Well, the COVID pandemic brought about economic conditions that tested the performance of non-QM and they came out quite well. Since then, we have seen more and more insurance companies and money managers become interested in investing with Angel Oak and the non-QM space. This bodes especially well for the future and non-QM’s anticipated growth.

HousingWire: With so many new lenders getting into non-QM, why is it more important than ever to work with the right non-QM lender?

Steven Schwalb: Non-QM is where we play, and we have laid a solid foundation as the leaders in non-QM. Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions focuses exclusively on non-QM and we have been setting records in volume. As an organization, Angel Oak has originated over $12B in non-QM. Recently we have seen an increased focus on non-QM, which has led a number of Agency lenders attempt to get into the space.

Since there are so many more options, it is more important than ever to work with the right firm. As we always say, wouldn’t you rather work with someone who has done 10,000 non-QM loans rather than 10? The key is to understand the important questions to ask. How long have they been doing non-QM? What percentage of their overall business is non-QM? What is their origination model? Do they need a pre-closing investor review? Those are but a few important ones.

Choosing the wrong lender puts not only your reputation at risk, but the relationship with your referral partner as well! What happens when the lender tells you they can do the loan with 20% down and then at the last minute, their end investor says no? They come back saying the borrower needs to put down 30%. We’ve heard many stories of that happening. How does that impact your relationship with that referral source? These examples do not happen at Angel Oak. Our vertical integration means our affiliate, Angel Oak Capital Advisors is the end investor. We know what they’re looking for when we issue a pre-qual, and we stand behind that. This relationship allows us to write our own guidelines and quickly update them based on market conditions. Our model is to originate to retain, not to sell. As well, we do not have to seek third party approval to do a loan – we are the end investor. Surety of execution, consistently enhancing guidelines and offering flexibility through our non-QM products sets us apart. Make sure to ask lenders you are considering these types of questions.

HousingWire: Non-QM is expected to grow significantly in 2022, where is that growth going to come from?

Steven Schwalb: A couple of areas. First, with increased education and awareness, more originators are beginning to offer non-QM. That means more opportunities for these underserved borrowers to qualify for a loan.

Second is from the significant growth in the number of borrowers who need it. Increased fees from the GSEs for second homes and high balance loans have borrowers looking for more affordable options. There is also a large population of self-employed in the U.S. today. Self-employed borrowers often need Bank Statement loans because they can’t qualify using tax returns. The Department of Labor estimates 30% of the U.S. workforce is self-employed. That is around 59 million people including gig economy workers. And this demographic continues to grow at a rapid rate. We also work with originators who close deals for real estate investors who own many properties and need options outside of Agency.

HousingWire: How have the changes in the agency space (GSEs/FHFA) impacted non-QM?

Steven Schwalb: A couple of changes have impacted the non-QM space. First, stricter guidelines including condos have caused more borrowers to fall out of Agency. We are seeing more condos deemed non-warrantable and we are helping originators with these fall-out scenarios. As well, Agency has increased fees for second homes and high-balance loans. As a result, our non-QM volume is increasing with originators looking for alternative solutions to get their deals closed. After all, this is what we do – helping borrowers left outside of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and giving them another chance. At the moment, the population of borrowers in this situation is increasing.

The bottom line is that our originator partners are telling us that Angel Oak and non-QM is providing them an opportunity in today’s market to capture more purchase volume. Investors see the growth and they feel more confident investing in our non-QM borrowers. There is ample growth ahead of us!

The post Is investor appetite for non-QM changing? appeared first on HousingWire.

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Spread & Containment

A Slowdown in Showings

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: A Slowdown in ShowingsA brief excerpt: The following data is courtesy of David Arbit, Director of Research at the Minneapolis Area REALTORS® and NorthstarMLS (posted with permission). Here is a lin…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: A Slowdown in Showings

A brief excerpt:
The following data is courtesy of David Arbit, Director of Research at the Minneapolis Area REALTORS® and NorthstarMLS (posted with permission). Here is a link to their data.

The first graph shows the 7-day average showings for the Twin Cities area for 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022.

There was a huge dip in showings in 2020 (black) at the start of the pandemic, and then showing were well above 2019 (blue) levels for the rest of the year. And showings in 2021 (gold) were very strong in the first half of the year, and then were closer to 2019 in the 2nd half.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that there were dips in showings during holidays (July 4th, Memorial Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas), and also dips related to protests and curfews related to the deaths of George Floyd and Daunte Wright.

2022 (red) started off solid but is now below the previous three years.
There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

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