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Rumor has it that Dogecoin could shift to proof-of-stake — What does that mean for miners?

Dogecoin shifting to proof-of-stake would be good for the environment, but what impact would it have on miners and ASIC manufacturers?

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Dogecoin shifting to proof-of-stake would be good for the environment, but what impact would it have on miners and ASIC manufacturers?

There are rumors that Dogecoin could switch from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake (PoS). 

Do I know if Dogecoin is switching to PoS?

No.

Do I think it’s going to PoS? Probably not.

But I love the “what if” game.

As a person who works in the crypto mining industry, I do my best to gauge where the market and mining industry are going, along with how that could play out. If Dogecoin makes a change to PoS or some other change to how new blocks are created, it would have massive ramifications for the mining industry.

Here’s a look at a few options and their effects.

Scrypt mining could be devastated

I’m not going to debate whether or not Dogecoin will or should switch to PoS. While it’s hard to determine if the recent rumors about the potential for a switch are true or not, they were enough to have Bitmain supposedly pause Litecoin (LTC) and Dogecoin (DOGE) miner manufacturing.

The larger question in my mind is, What happens to miners if Dogecoin switches to PoS?

First, Scrypt mining would be devastated. DOGE accounts for over 60% of the revenue with Scrypt mining. Take it away, and every L3+, every LT6 and every Mini Doge Pro, literally almost every non-L7 miner not connected to $0.04-per-kilowatt-hour electricity would need to be unplugged immediately.

Network difficulty would likely bounce all over the place for some time, while miners with older equipment struggle with the decision to keep their ASICSs on or turn them off. The apex Scrypt miner, Bitmain’s Antminer L7, would see its profitability reduced by nearly 75%, reducing profits to a whopping $4.83/day at $0.05/kWh.

What about the miners that don’t have an industrial electric rate? At $0.10/kWh, the L7 9050M, which sold for around $9,000 a few weeks ago, would earn you $0.72/day.

Yikes!

A drastic change like this would result in those who had recently purchased an L7 being very unlikely to ever recover their investment, let alone generate any profits.

ASIC manufacturers would be forced to drop prices, further impacting their bottom line

The vastly reduced profitability would inevitably lead to the price of the L7 dropping quicker than it did during the COVID-19-induced crypto crash. Pricing miners solely by their expected ROI time, at $5 a day profit, miners would be looking at the L7 having a price tag between $1,825 (12-month ROI) and $2,737.50 (18-month ROI). This reflects a minimum price reduction of nearly 70%.

How quickly would Bitmain react? Would they gradually reduce prices week after week similar to what Goldshell has done with many of its miners over the past few months? A strategy that repeatedly left a sour taste in the mouths of customers as they watched the price of the miner they just spent thousands of dollars on being slashed repeatedly.

Or would they come out and continue their recent trend of pricing miners fairly?

ASIC resellers would also bear the brunt of the negative consequences connected to a PoS shift by Dogecoin. Many L7 miners are suppliers, and retailers sitting on that would instantly need to be marked down by a substantial amount. However, based on their recent history of price-gouging customers, like charging $60,000 for a KD6 that is barely worth over $1,000 today, it’s doubtful many tears would be shed for them.

Many home miners would flood eBay and similar platforms with Scrypt miners. It would be a race to the bottom as desperate miners attempt to recoup whatever value is left in the hunk of metal that can now only be used as a doorstop or display piece if one is desperate.

Litecoin mining would survive. Those L7s would stay on because they’d still be somewhat profitable, and there really wouldn’t be another choice. It’s doubtful that the market would see a new Scrypt miner that could challenge the L7 to be developed anytime soon unless there already is a more efficient Scrypt miner in development. There are some rumors that Bitmain is working on a miner that would surpass the L7.

That’s a lot of disruption from the move to PoS, and we’ve only looked at one aspect of the crypto ecosystem. Numerous other questions and scenarios would need to be considered.

What would happen to network security?

Would the yield from staking cause DOGE to eventually be labeled a security?

Would Dogecoin be lauded for the change, or would the masses flee from what is now the second-largest PoW coin by market cap?

Now for my favorite what if. This option is unlikely, maybe even impossible, but there are different ways it could play out.

What if Dogecoin breaks away from merge-mining with LTC and creates its own mining algorithm?

Related: Dogecoin Foundation announces new fund for core developers

Innovation and competition are healthy for every industry

What if there’s a GPU mining renaissance? After the Ethereum Merge event, there’s a ton of really cheap GPUs available on the market. Those would get expensive really quickly. Mining purists would rejoice as they build their own mining rigs while trying to figure out how much DOGE they can stack. It really would be cool to see, but it wouldn’t last. The big three manufacturers — Bitmain, Goldshell and iBelink — would scramble to be the first to market with an ASIC miner.

Eventually, they’d each have at least one ASIC miner on the market, and naturally, they’ll get more powerful and more efficient over time. The jumps and increases in difficulty would be ridiculous, and just like with Bitcoin (BTC), it will eventually no longer be profitable to mine DOGE with GPUs. But it could also open the door to something the ASIC manufacturing market desperately needs: competition.

What if, following the short-lived GPU mining renaissance, a door opens for another manufacturer or manufacturers to enter the market? Currently, Bitmain, Goldshell and iBelink are the “big three,” and it’s really Bitmain that has a total stranglehold on the market. So, while it’s likely Bitmain would come out on top, what if there’s someone out there who can be first to market and maintain that lead and establish itself as a credible and reliable ASIC manufacturer?

What if that company decided to branch out into other miners and offer them fair prices? To be fair, we do have to commend Bitmain again for the pricing on its recent rollout of industry-altering miners. Reseller markups are still an issue, but that’s another topic. Perhaps this “new” competitor would adhere to the mantra that customer service actually matters. If customers could get over the reliability concerns and the company built a good product, that could happen. Admittedly, that’s a lot of what-ifs.

Alternatively, there’s a money-grab scenario for Dogecoin. The project could go directly to Bitmain, Goldshell and iBelink and say, “We’re creating our own mining algorithm, and we’ll give it to you and you alone. How much money will you give us?”

What would Goldshell pay to bring life back to a company that has taken a series of body blows from the recent altcoin miners released by Bitmain? Or would iBelink go all out to win the rights to make the miner? IBelink just released a new BM-K3 Kadena miner that boasts 70 terahashes — a nearly 75% increase over the next closest model — and it can’t celebrate because Bitmain is about to trump that with the new KA3 that brings 166 THs. In the case of a Dogecoin offer to ASIC manufacturers, how much would Bitmain pay to maintain its market dominance?

No change could be a good thing

What if DOGE chooses to simply continue with Scrypt mining?

The status quo is not that exciting, but it seems to be the most likely outcome. Sure, there may be some changes that will pass a vote, but Dogecoin will most likely continue to be merge-mined with LTC on the Scrypt algorithm.

Bitmain is likely to continue pushing out L7 inventory before launching a more efficient Scrypt miner later this year AND Goldshell will launch a Mini Doge Pro 2 for home miners that will essentially be two Mini Doge Pros in one box. The upcoming LTC halving, along with the more efficient miners, will probably push several older models to shut down for good.

Crypto markets will go up, and crypto markets will go down. There will likely be some other crypto scandal that no one sees coming that will look incredibly obvious in hindsight. The sun will come up, and the sun will come down. Of course, most suppliers and especially resellers will continue to markup miners and squeeze everything they can out of regular customers.

It’s impossible to know what’s going to happen with Dogecoin in the future, but crypto is one of the few industries where anything can happen on any given day.

Regardless of whether Dogecoin switches to PoS, the crypto mining landscape has always changed rapidly, and Scrypt mining is no different.

Change is coming.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Market Report – 2nd October 2023

The US Non-Farm Payroll jobs report due on Friday is the key data point of the coming week.  Analysts predict payrolls will fall…
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  • The US Non-Farm Payroll jobs report due on Friday is the key data point of the coming week. 
  • Analysts predict payrolls will fall to 150,000 from 187,000 last month and the unemployment rate to hold at 3.8%.
  • Average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month.
  • Any deviation from those forecasts can be expected to trigger price moves in all the major currency markets.

US dollar strength continues to be the underlying theme of the currency markets, with EURUSD currently testing the key 1.04823 support level and the GBPUSD downward price channel showing few signs of reversing. The US Non-Farm Payrolls jobs report, due to be released on Friday, is always an important milestone in the trading month, and September’s numbers could offer clues as to how far the current trend has left to run.

US Dollar

The Non-Farm Payrolls employment report, released on the first Friday of every month, often sets the tone for the following week’s trading. After this September, which saw EURUSD and GBPUSD give up 2.48% and 3.70% in value, respectively, Friday’s report is the most important item on the coming week’s economic calendar. The jobs report will be a crucial indicator of whether the rush to the dollar is likely to continue or if a reversal could be about to form.

ISM Purchasing and Services data will also offer an insight into the health of the US economy, and big corporations will kick off earnings season next week. There is also the backdrop of the US Federal budget and a possible government shutdown to consider, but for now, the NFP is the most likely catalyst of the next price moves.

Daily Price Chart – US Dollar Basket Index – Daily Price Chart – 20 SMA

us dollar basket daily price chart 20 sma

Source: IG

EURUSD

The coming week is quiet in terms of euro-specific data releases, but updates from other regions look set to influence the value of euro-based currency pairs. Due on Friday, the NFP number out of the states will very likely impact prices in the largest currency market in the world – the Eurodollar. Before that, on Tuesday, the interest rate decision due to be announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia will influence EURAUD price levels. However, comments from that central bank can also be taken as a guide regarding the mood of the rest of the central bank peer group.

Daily Price Chart – EURUSD – Daily Price Chart – 1.04823

eurusd daily price chart oct 2 2023

Source: IG

EURUSD has started the week trading midrange between two significant support and resistance price levels. To the downside is the 1.04823 support level, which marks the price low of 6th January. That still represents the current year-to-date low for EURUSD, but the tests of that level on Wednesday (1.04880) and Thursday (1.04910) suggest that bearish momentum is still strong.

Whilst the bounce off that level was strong enough for traders to think a trend reversal could be imminent, there is also resistance to further upward moves in the region of 1.06351. That price level relates to the swing-low price pattern formed on 31st May and previously acted as support between 14th and 25th September.

GBPUSD

As with the euro, traders of sterling-based currency pairs will see prices influenced by announcements from other regions rather than UK authorities this week. The run-up to the release of the NFP jobs report could see GBPUSD continue to trade within a range formed by key support/resistance price levels.

Price level 1.23081 marks the upper end of the current price channel and is the low price recorded during the swing-low price move of 25th May. This level didn’t offer as much support as expected when it was breached on 21st September, and with the RSI on the Daily Price Chart at 29.09, there are signs the market is oversold and is due a bounce.

Daily Price Chart – GBPUSD – Daily Price Chart

gbpusd daily price chart oct 2 2023

Source: IG

The downward trend, which started on 13th July, has formed a price channel which has trendlines which have been barely tested over a period of weeks. That leaves plenty of room for the price of GBPUSD to continue to weaken and move towards the major support level of 1.18030, which marks the year-to-date price low of 8th March.

USDJPY

The recent decision by the Bank of Japan to continue with its dovish approach to interest rates has left room for USDJPY to track upwards, guided by the 20 SMA on the Daily Price Chart. That metric remains the key indicator, and until price breaks through that level (currently 148.21), there is room for a test of the multi-year price high 151.946 printed on 21st October 2022.

Daily Price Chart – USDJPY – Daily Price Chart

usdjpy daily price chart oct 2 2023

Source: IG

Monday sees the Japan Tankan Index number for Q3 be released. Analysts forecast that the index will rise to 7, but as with the other major currency pairs, the major news event of the week is the NFP employment report due on Friday.

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    Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Battered As Hawkish FedSpeak & Inflation Fears Lift The Dollar

    Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Battered As Hawkish FedSpeak & Inflation Fears Lift The Dollar

    Rate-change expectations shifted hawkishly…

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    Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Battered As Hawkish FedSpeak & Inflation Fears Lift The Dollar

    Rate-change expectations shifted hawkishly today, after drifting dovishly for the last week, on the heels of the Manufacturing PMI's report which showed the rate of inflation quickened to the sharpest pace in five months and FedSpeak which confirmed Powell's "higher for longer" messaging.

    Source: Bloomberg

    In the US, S&P Global noted

    “Less encouraging was the news on the inflation outlook, as producers’ costs rose at the fastest rate for five months, largely on the back of higher oil prices. These increased costs are already feeding through to higher prices to customers, which will inevitably result in some renewed upward pressure on inflation.”

    Globally, JPMorgan warned that there were further signs of price pressures building in September.

    Input costs and output charges both rose for the second consecutive months, with rates of inflation accelerating for both measures.

    Fed Gov Michelle Bowman again said that multiple interest-rate hikes may be required to get inflation down:

    “I continue to expect that further rate increases will likely be needed to return inflation to 2% in a timely way,” Bowman said in remarks prepared for delivery to bankers in Banff, Canada.

    “I see a continued risk that high energy prices could reverse some of the progress we have seen on inflation in recent months.”

    Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr said the US central bank is “likely at or very near” a level of interest rates that is sufficiently restrictive:

     “I think it is likely that we’ll need to keep rates up for some time in order to get inflation down to 2%. I’m confident that we’ll get there.”

    Traders were buying protection against a less-hawkish Fed. Bloomberg notes significant SOFR flows on the day have been skewed toward dovish protection into year-end, standing to benefit from no more additional rate hikes from the Fed.

    The hawkish shift sent the dollar higher, rallying back up to perfectly tag the stops from Wednesday highs...

    Source: Bloomberg

    The stronger dollar weighed on crude oil prices, with WTI sliding back below $89, as Citi's Ed Morse muttered something about Oil "going back to the $70s" as “demand looks constrained as the pandemic recovery factors continue to ease off and peak transport fuel demand looms, while supply is growing in non-OPEC+ suppliers”

    And gold was dumped to fresh cycle lows, selling off for the 6th day in a row (9th drop in the last 10 days)...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Spot Platinum prices plunged to their lowest since Oct 2022...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasuries were sold across the board with the belly  (5s-10s) suffering the most...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Which steepened the yield curve (2s10s) to its least-inverted since the peak of the SVB crisis...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bitcoin continued to drift higher, spiking above $28,500 intraday

    Source: Bloomberg

    Stocks were very mixed on the day with Small Caps clubbed like a baby seal while Mega-Cap tech outperformed leave The Dow and S&P trying to get back above water...

    Value stocks puked relative to Growth, erasing their recent gains...

    Source: Bloomberg

    'Most shorted' stocks were hammered for the second day in a row with no squeeze attempts...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Utes were the biggest losers today (NEE's plunge did not help) and Tech stocks were the only sector to end green...

    Source: Bloomberg

    That's quite a puke in Utes...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Goldman's data could hint at capitulative flows: CTAs as short $17.8bn of global equities (31st %tile), while In the US, CTAs are short $17.5bn of equities after selling -$59bn over the last two weeks, representing the largest two week selling since Covid!

    And finally, financial conditions continue to tighten, suggesting stocks may have more room to run to the downside...

    Source: Bloomberg

    Is that the 'deflation' that Powell is looking for?

    Tyler Durden Mon, 10/02/2023 - 16:00

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    UC Riverside startup company wins prestigious NIH grant

    Soon after he joined UC Riverside in 2015, Maurizio Pellecchia, a professor of biomedical sciences in the UCR School of Medicine, began working with…

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    Soon after he joined UC Riverside in 2015, Maurizio Pellecchia, a professor of biomedical sciences in the UCR School of Medicine, began working with the UCR Research and Economic Development office to create on campus an incubator space. He envisioned that space as a home for UCR scientists to create startup companies to prove the commercial potential of their technologies. That multi-year effort helped create in the Multidisciplinary Research Building the EPIC Life Sciences Incubator that currently houses young companies in agricultural technology, biomedical technologies, bioengineering, and medicinal chemistry.

    Credit: Stan Lim, UC Riverside.

    Soon after he joined UC Riverside in 2015, Maurizio Pellecchia, a professor of biomedical sciences in the UCR School of Medicine, began working with the UCR Research and Economic Development office to create on campus an incubator space. He envisioned that space as a home for UCR scientists to create startup companies to prove the commercial potential of their technologies. That multi-year effort helped create in the Multidisciplinary Research Building the EPIC Life Sciences Incubator that currently houses young companies in agricultural technology, biomedical technologies, bioengineering, and medicinal chemistry.

    One of the tenant companies in the incubator space is Armida Labs, Inc, a pharmaceutical company founded two years ago by Pellecchia with Carlo Baggio, formerly a senior scientist in Pellecchia’s research group, as its chief technology officer and director of chemical biology. Armida Labs, which is developing a breakthrough pancreatic cancer therapy called Targefrin™, has now been awarded a highly competitive $400,000 Phase I Small Business Innovation Research, or SBIR, grant from the National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health. The grant, of which Baggio is principal investigator, will allow the company to complete important next steps toward the preparation of human clinical trials. 

    “Our goal is to develop the drug Targefrin, which UCR has patented,” said Pellecchia, who holds the Daniel Hays Chair in Cancer Research at UCR. “We want to translate Targefrin from a laboratory discovery to a product that can fight pancreatic cancer, and potentially other cancers, and improve public health.”

    Pellecchia, who is the main inventor of Targefrin, explained that the SBIR grant makes it possible for Armida Labs to gather industry-standard pharmacokinetics and efficacy data, which are expensive to obtain. 

    “Without the grant, our studies would remain at the pre-clinical level,” said Pellecchia, who directs the School of Medicine’s Center for Molecular and Translational Medicine. “The Phase I SBIR grant will allow us to scale up the manufacture of Targefrin and to test this drug in more sophisticated pharmacology studies in models of metastatic pancreatic cancer. These data will help us craft the necessary follow-up studies that will enable filing an investigational new drug application with the Food and Drug Administration, and if successful, begin human clinical studies.”

    The SBIR grant Armida Labs received is a Phase I grant, which means it is a pilot phase grant. Only recipients of a Phase I grant can apply to the NIH for a Phase II grant. 

    “Phase II grants, which can be up to around $2 million, can allow us to apply for an IND,” Pellecchia said. “We expect our pilot studies will take about six months to one year to do. If these studies are successful, we will submit a Phase II application, which will allow us to complete toxicity studies in two animal models.” 

    An investigational new drug, or IND, is a drug that the Food and Drug Administration has not yet approved for general use. Researchers use INDs in clinical trials to investigate their safety and efficacy. Before testing in human subjects, however, researchers need to apply for an IND with the Food and Drug Administration.

    According to Pellecchia, the EPIC Life Sciences Incubator greatly simplified the launch of Armida Labs, the first UCR faculty biopharmaceutical company in the City of Riverside. He said it is a lot easier to start a company in an incubator space than to have to rent an empty lab space somewhere to start doing research.

    “Developing and growing a biotech company requires huge amounts of capital,” he said. “In contrast, a minimal amount of capital is needed to launch a startup in an incubator space. As a result, we were able to get Armida Labs off the ground and thus apply to the National Cancer Institute for seed funding. To go from a pre-clinical laboratory discovery all the way to drug development in patients, similar projects to Targefrin often require as much as $2-5 million. With our new award, we aim to complete valuable steps to attract further investment.”

    The EPIC Life Sciences Incubator, which is managed by Maricela Argueta and directed by David Pearson, aims to be a home for startups like Armida Labs by providing vital technology and equipment, as well as access to UCR’s core technical facilities, faculty, and entrepreneurial development services from the Office of Technology Partnerships led by Associate Vice Chancellor Rosibel Ochoa. It offers advice, makes connections with venture capital firms, administers the incubator space, and provides personnel for coordinating the use of shared equipment. 

    Pellecchia is excited to have launched Armida Labs and acquired the SBIR grant. As the company grows, it will hire more personnel.

    “Nothing would make me happier than to see our UCR research translated into experimental therapeutics. I am also thrilled to create new biotech jobs in Riverside, a region lacking incubator spaces where biotech companies can start and grow,” Pellecchia said. “At UCR, we graduate thousands of students and train many postdocs. But we are really educating and training them only to see them go elsewhere. We want them to stay and thrive in Riverside.”


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