Connect with us

Uncategorized

Research: Withdrawal price – A new way of assessing Bitcoin

Assessing the health of the crypto market requires looking at more than just Bitcoin’s price.
The post Research: Withdrawal price – A new way of assessing…

Published

on

Assessing the health of the crypto market requires looking at more than just Bitcoin’s price.

Looking at the percentage of Bitcoin holders that are in profit, meaning they bought BTC at a price lower than its current spot price, is a solid indicator of future movements.

Holders that saw their BTC increase in value are more likely to sell, which could result in a market swing. Those whose holdings have depreciated in value are more likely to hold their assets, leading to buying pressure.

Called realized price, this metric has historically been a solid but not an infallible indicator for market movements.

Another way to approach the realized price is to focus on exchange withdrawals. Namely, looking at the average price at which Bitcoin was withdrawn from exchanges provides a much more reliable estimate of a market-wide cost basis for BTC.

CryptoSlate analysis looked at the average withdrawal prices for each year from 2017 to 2023 and the average withdrawal price from 2011 to 2022.

Graph showing the exchange average withdrawal price for Bitcoin by year (Source: Glassnode)

Data from Glassnode showed a curve in the average Bitcoin withdrawal price, ranging from $15,139 to as high as $37,232.

  • 2017 = $15,139
  • 2018 = $18,598
  • 2019 = $21,817
  • 2020 = $26,513
  • 2021 = $37,232
  • 2022 = $26,564
  • 2023 = $19,496

The average withdrawal price for Bitcoin from 2011 to 2023 stands at $11,037.

bitcoin average exchange withdrawal
Graph showing the exchange average withdrawal price for Bitcoin by year (Source: Glassnode)

When Bitcoin reached $23,000, it broke above multiple cost-basis levels, including both realized price and short-term holder realized. The long-awaited but slow recovery has now put investors that bought BTC before the COVID-19 pandemic in profit.

However, those that purchased BTC during the 2020 pandemic, in 2021, and in 2022 saw their positions lose value. Investors that bought the dip at the beginning of January 2023 have already seen profit as Bitcoin’s price continued to rise throughout the month.

The average withdrawal price becomes even more important when analyzed alongside long-term holders.

Defined as those owning BTC for longer than 155 days, long-term holders are less likely to spend their coins. The realized price at which they bought BTC has historically served as a solid resistance indicator. However, the average withdrawal price for long-term holders might be an even better gauge for resistance, as it represents the average value at which they transferred their coins from exchanges to wallets.

bitcoin supply in loss long term holders
Graph showing the total supply in loss held by long-term holders from 2011 to 2023 (Source: Glassnode)

At the end of 2022, the market saw the total supply in loss held by long-term holders reach an all-time high. And while the number dropped from 6 million BTC to 5 million BTC since the beginning of the year, it still shows a significant portion of the supply at a loss.

This indicates that long-term holders could continue to sit on the 5 million BTC until their realized price is met, creating a solid resistance that could stop Bitcoin from slipping below its 2022 low.

The post Research: Withdrawal price – A new way of assessing Bitcoin appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

‘The Scandal Would Be Enormous’: Pfizer Director Worried About Vax-Induced Menstrual Irregularities

‘The Scandal Would Be Enormous’: Pfizer Director Worried About Vax-Induced Menstrual Irregularities

Project Veritas on Thursday released a…

Published

on

'The Scandal Would Be Enormous': Pfizer Director Worried About Vax-Induced Menstrual Irregularities

Project Veritas on Thursday released a new segment of undercover footage of Pfizer director Jordon Walker in which the Director of R&D within the company's mRNA operation expressed concern over how the COVID-19 vaccine may be affecting women's reproductive health.

"There is something irregular about the menstrual cycles. So, people will have to investigate that down the line," Walker told an undercover journalist he thought he was on a date with.

"The [COVID] vaccine shouldn’t be interfering with that [menstrual cycles]. So, we don’t really know," he added.

Walker also hopes we don't discover that "somehow this mRNA lingers in the body and like -- because it has to be affecting something hormonal to impact menstrual cycles," adding "I hope we don’t discover something really bad down the line…If something were to happen downstream and it was, like, really bad? I mean, the scale of that scandal would be enormous."

Watch:

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/02/2023 - 19:30

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Rebar robotics firm Toggle adds another $3M to its fundraising tally

There’s no denying that the robotics startup world has taken a hit during the ongoing economic downturn. Recent numbers prove what we’ve all suspected…

Published

on

There’s no denying that the robotics startup world has taken a hit during the ongoing economic downturn. Recent numbers prove what we’ve all suspected for some time. But two things are true: 1) The lull is temporary; and 2) While robotics isn’t recession-proof, construction might as well be.

This is certainly a theme of late — as other categories of robotics have struggled to raise, those operating in construction appear relatively unimpacted. New York-based Toggle this morning announced that it has added another $3 million to its coffers as part of a “Series A Extension.” The initial $8 million Series A was announced back in 2021. Japanese firm Tokyu Construction is a first-time investor in the startup, whose total raise is currently at $15 million.

Image Credits: Toggle

Toggle CEO Daniel Blank tells TechCrunch:

With a renewed interest in American manufacturing and production capacity and the investments pouring into infrastructure and renewable energy in particular (but also batteries and microchips manufacturing), we have been successful at navigating the difficulties whether due to our category, a slowing economy or the pandemic. In this round, adding strategic investors, we’ve demonstrated that the problem of labor cost, availability and speed is really at the forefront for construction firms and they are going directly to the tech startups rather than through VCs to access solutions.

Toggle makes robots that bend rebar, the steel skeletal reinforcement you find in all manner of heavy construction. The company’s headcount is currently at 40, which the company plans to double over the course of the next year, following an upcoming Series B raise. Those roles will primarily be focused on engineering and operations.

Blank notes that the pandemic has contributed to an increased interest in automating difficult and expensive pieces of the construction process.

Image Credits: Toggle

“The pandemic has had a significant impact on the construction industry, leading to increased costs and complexity. Supply chain disruptions, inflation, and rising labor costs have all played a role,” he explains. “To combat these challenges, there has been a growing interest in the adoption of robotics in construction. This trend is consistent across different segments of the industry, as owners and contractors seek ways to save time and money. Robotics and automation, similar to those used in manufacturing, are seen as a solution. This has also led to an acceleration in the use of prefab and modular construction methods.”

In addition to hiring, the new funds will be used to ramp up its robotic production.

Rebar robotics firm Toggle adds another $3M to its fundraising tally by Brian Heater originally published on TechCrunch

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

January Employment Preview

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is for 185,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.6%.There were 223,000 jobs added in December, and the unemployment rate was at 3.5…

Published

on

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is for 185,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.6%.

There were 223,000 jobs added in December, and the unemployment rate was at 3.5%.

From BofA economists:
"Nonfarm payrolls likely rose by 225k in January, little changed from the December increase. Payrolls were likely boosted by the end of the strike by University of California workers in late December. The strike affected 36k workers according to the BLS and likely largely explained the ~24k drop in state education employment in December. These workers should return to payrolls in January."
From Goldman Sachs:
"We continue to expect a strong employment report, and we left our nonfarm payroll forecast unchanged at +300k (mom sa)."
Click on graph for larger image.

• First, as of December there were 1.24 million more jobs than in February 2020 (the month before the pandemic).

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.  As of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned.

Annual Benchmark Revision: The benchmark revision for 2021 will be released with the January employment report. The above graph doesn't include the preliminary benchmark revision that showed there were 462 thousand more jobs than originally reported in March 2022.

ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed 106,000 private sector jobs were added in January.  This suggests job gains below consensus expectations. ADP chief economist Nela Richardson noted: "In January, we saw the impact of weather-related disruptions on employment during our reference week. Hiring was stronger during other weeks of the month, in line with the strength we saw late last year."

ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).  The ISM® manufacturing employment index decreased in January to 50.6%, down from 50.8% last month.   This would suggest the number of manufacturing jobs was mostly unchanged in January.

The ISM® services employment index for January has not been released yet.

Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed a decrease in the number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week (includes the 12th of the month) from 216,000 in December to 192,000 in January. This would usually suggest fewer layoffs in January than in December. In general, weekly claims were below expectations in January.

•  COVID: As far as the pandemic, the number of weekly cases during the reference week in January was around 332,000, down from 458,000 in December.  

•  Weather: As ADP noted, there was severe weather during the reference week. After the release, I'll check the San Francisco Fed estimate of Weather-Adjusted Change in Total Nonfarm Employment.

Conclusion: This employment report is especially hard to predict.  There is a significant seasonal adjustment for January (there are always a large number of jobs lost in January NSA).  And there are other factors - severe weather, end of a strike - that will likely impact hiring.  My guess is the report will be below consensus.

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending