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Research: Comparing the 2022 bear market to 2018

Not all bear markets are created equal and the same can be said when comparing the 2018 crypto bear market, and the current 2022 bear market.
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Not all bear markets are created equal and the same can be said when comparing the 2018 crypto bear market, and the current 2022 bear market.

Exchange BTC balance 2018-2019

Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change – All Exchanges (Source: Glassnode)

Following the peak of the bull run in Dec. 2017, Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped below $10,000, and what followed from Jan. 2018 to Q4 2019 was a large inflow of BTC onto exchanges.

Starting with around 1.7 million BTC on exchanges in Jan. 2018, by the end of 2019 exchanges held an estimated 3 million BTC.

Bitcoin balance on exchanges
Bitcoin: Balance on Exchanges – All Exchanges (Source: Glassnode)

Exchange BTC balance 2022

Unlike its 2018 predecessor, the bear market of 2022 has shown itself to be a completely different animal. Through 2022, an unprecedented amount of BTC has left exchanges numbering in the hundreds of thousands at a time on occasions.

Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change – All Exchanges (Source: Glassnode)

Prior to the aftermath of the FTX collapse, a total of around 300,000 BTC began to leave exchanges starting at the beginning of June 2022. Following the collapse, this uptrend of BTC removal from exchanges only accelerated as the mantra ‘not your keys, not your coins’ took hold.

Bitcoin: Balance on Exchanges – All Exchanges (Source: Glassnode)

The peak of the 2018 bear market lasted for around 136 days and saw a fall in BTC price of over 80% from its all-time high (ATH). When compared to BTC price now – down by around 76% from it’s all-time high (ATH) over the last couple of days – chart patterns suggest the peak of the 2022 bear market may be here.

Price drawdown from ATH: (Source: Glassnode)

The Introduction of Derivatives

A stark difference between the 2018 bear market and the 2022 is the introduction of derivatives to the cryptocurrency market.

With the introduction of futures and options in 2021, derivatives have since been a fundamental aspect of the crypto market – making up a huge amount of the crypto ecosystem. Built upon $2.5 trillion of derivatives, the global banking system evidences the sheer magnitude derivatives have to play in the crypto ecosystem — and the impact they can and do make.

Futures perpetual funding rate: (Source: Glassnode)

When analyzing previous bear markets, Cryptoslate have found that the bottom is in when shorts become so aggressive that BTC price won’t go down any further. This has been seen in previous bear market bottoms, the Covid-19 pandemic fallout, China’s crypto ban of summer 2021, with the Luna crash, and now with the collapse of FTX.

The post Research: Comparing the 2022 bear market to 2018 appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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Metaverse comes in second place as Oxford’s word of the year

The term describing an internet-enabled virtual world lost to "goblin mode" in 2022 — "a type of behavior which is unapologetically self-indulgent, lazy,…

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The term describing an internet-enabled virtual world lost to "goblin mode" in 2022 — "a type of behavior which is unapologetically self-indulgent, lazy, slovenly, or greedy."

“Metaverse” has come in second to “goblin mode” as the Oxford University Press’ 2022 word of the year after the process was opened up to voters for the first time ever.

In a Dec. 4 announcement, Oxford Languages said the viral term “goblin mode” beat out “metaverse” and #IStandWith to become its 2022 word of the year. According to Oxford’s research, usage of the term metaverse “increased almost fourfold from the previous year in the Oxford Corpus,” driven in part by Facebook’s rebranding to Meta in October 2021.

Metaverse lost to goblin mode, which went viral in February, as it seemingly “captured the prevailing mood of individuals who rejected the idea of returning to ‘normal life’” following COVID-19 lockdowns being lifted in many areas. #IStandWith took third place in the contest, driven by social media hashtags including #IStandWithUkraine following Russia’s invasion of the country in February.

“As we grapple with relatively new concepts like hybrid working in the virtual reality space, metaverse is particularly pertinent to debates about the ethics and feasibility of an entirely online future," said Oxford Languages. "A worthy opponent to ‘goblin mode’, ‘metaverse’ gained voting traction with crypto communities and publications. We see the term continue to grow in use as more voices join the debate about the sustainability and viability of its future."

In the video pitch for ‘metaverse’ released in November, Oxford said the term dated back to “the science fiction novel Snow Crash by Neil Stephenson,” released in 1992.

More than 300,000 people cast votes between the three terms shortlisted by Oxford Languages.

Related: The metaverse is happening without Meta's permission

“NFT,” or nonfungible token, won Collins Dictionary’s contest for the word of 2021, while “vax” took first place as Oxford’s chosen word that the same year. The latest results seemingly represent a change in social media fervor around the crypto-related terms, which was reportedly falling in the first quarter of 2022.

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United Airlines stock has a 50% upside from here: Morgan Stanley

United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: UAL) is keeping in the green on Monday in an otherwise down market after a Morgan Stanley analyst said 2023 could…

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United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: UAL) is keeping in the green on Monday in an otherwise down market after a Morgan Stanley analyst said 2023 could be a “goldilocks” year for the air carrier.

United Airlines stock has upside to $67

Ravi Shanker sees upside in the airline holding company to $67 that translates to a near 50% premium on its current stock price.

He upgraded United Airlines stock to “overweight” this morning because he’s convinced that international travel will recover swiftly in 2023.

Earnings recovery post pandemic has kept pace with, if not led, peers and messaging has been very confident. We expect more normalised, just right conditions in 2023, stabilizing at level more favourable to earnings that market is pricing in.

Shanker expects continued leisure demand next year while business travel, he wrote, could exceed levels last seen before the COVID pandemic.

UAL has outperformed peers year-to-date

According to the Morgan Stanley analyst, prices will ease in 2023 as capacity returns. CASMxF trajectory was among other reasons cited for the bullish call.

United Airlines stock is roughly flat for the year at writing versus other major airline stocks in the red. Still, Shanker continues to see its current valuation as attractive. His note reads:

United Airlines Holdings Inc seems on track to exceed its 2023 guidance and to hit its 2026 guide issued eighteen months ago – something even the biggest UAL bulls may have considered difficult at the time.

In October, the Chicago-headquartered air carrier reported its financial results for the third quarter that handily topped Street estimates.

The post United Airlines stock has a 50% upside from here: Morgan Stanley appeared first on Invezz.

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Amazon Web Services will take a further hit in 2023: Dan Niles

Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) will continue to see weakness in its “cloud” business next year, says Dan Niles – the Founder of Satori Fund. Demand…

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Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) will continue to see weakness in its “cloud” business next year, says Dan Niles – the Founder of Satori Fund.

Demand will slow down further in 2023

According to Niles, demand for cloud computing is contracting and will continue on that path now we’re out of the pandemic and consumption is slowing down.

As companies budget for next year, they’ll go, we’ll have less employees, we need less enterprise software, we need less cloud computing resources. These are consumption-based models and consumption is slowing down for internet-based services.

In the latest reported quarter, the tech behemoth reported revenue from Amazon Web Services up 27% – its slowest growth since 2014 (read more).

Niles is super dovish on the market at large for next year and expects the S&P 500 to retest or even make new lows in 2023.

How would that affect the Amazon stock?

What he’s suggesting does not paint a rosy picture for the Amazon stock considering the multinational drives much of its operating profit from the cloud segment. On CNBC’s “TechCheck”, Niles said:

It’s really Amazon Web Services that drives the multiple for this company. They said, exiting last quarter, revenues were growing at 25% in AWS. I think you’ll see that number getting into the teens next year.

On a separate CNBC interview on Monday, Jefferies’ Brent Thill also said that he had reason to believe that shares of this Nasdaq-listed firm had not bottomed just yet.

That’s when the Amazon stock is already down more than 45% versus the start of 2022.

The post Amazon Web Services will take a further hit in 2023: Dan Niles appeared first on Invezz.

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