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‘Red Wave’ Becoming More Likely In Eyes Of Political Forecasters

‘Red Wave’ Becoming More Likely In Eyes Of Political Forecasters

Authored by Nanette Holt via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Election forecasters…

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'Red Wave' Becoming More Likely In Eyes Of Political Forecasters

Authored by Nanette Holt via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Election forecasters changed their predictions on June 15 on the expected outcomes of four November midterm elections.

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) walks on Capitol Hill in a file image. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

They based those decisions partly on the way voters in four states cast ballots the day before. The changes signaled expectations of improved chances for victory for Republicans in two Texas congressional races and Vermont’s gubernatorial race.

Only one revised prediction showed diminished confidence in a Republican’s chances to win in the fall. That slight downgrade was aimed at the ability of incumbent Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) to hang on to his seat in the U.S. Senate. But Lee is still expected to prevail.

The tweaked predictions about the upcoming fall Election Day come after voters waited in line on June 14 for a South Texas special election and for primaries across Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina.

Nevada Congressional District 4 Republican candidate Sam Peters and supporters call on voters at the Centennial Center in Centennial Hills north of Las Vegas to vote for him in Nevada’s June 14, 2022, primary. (John Haughey/The Epoch Times)

“In the aftermath of these contests, we’re making 4 rating changes, although 2 of them are in states that didn’t have elections on Tuesday,” the editors of Sabato’s Crystal Ball announced on June 15.

Crystal Ball pundits nudged their prediction that the November winner in the 34th Congressional District in Texas would be “Likely Democratic.” Previously, they had said that the race “Leans Democratic.” The change means that they now expect the race to be closer than they originally predicted.

It’s an unusual contest because of the circumstances.

On June 14, Mexican-born Republican Mayra Flores won a special election in the district for the seat vacated by a Democrat who resigned to take a job at a Washington law and lobbying firm.

Flores bested Democrat Dan Sanchez, winning 51 percent of the vote to his 43 percent. Her victory flipped the heavily Hispanic district.

Crystal Ball had predicted her victory correctly with the rating “Leans Republican.” And even Elon Musk wrote on Twitter: “I voted for Mayra Flores—first time I ever voted Republican. Massive red wave in 2022.”

An unusually low number of voters—about 29,000—cast votes in the Texas race. The midterm election four years ago brought out about 143,000 voters.

But the win only secures the spot for Flores until the fall.

Mayra Flores (C) speaks to supporters after winning the Texas 34th Congressional District special election in San Benito, Texas, on June 14, 2022. (Bobby Sanchez for The Epoch Times)

On Nov. 8, she must face Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas), who currently represents Texas’s 15th Congressional District. Redistricting put the home of Gonzalez, a moderate Democrat, within the boundaries of the newly-drawn District 34.

So the fall Flores–Gonzalez match-up pits incumbent against incumbent in an area won by Joe Biden in 2020.

Based on that, the poor environment for Democrats, and the encouraging performance for Republicans in Tuesday night’s special election [win by Flores], we’re going to shift the rating,” Crystal Ball editors wrote.

The move shows increased confidence in Flores’s ability to put Gonzalez on the ropes, but the editors still predict that the Democrat holds the advantage.

Partly because of Flores’s strong performance on June 14, analysts with Crystal Ball also switched their prediction for the race to win the District 15 seat being vacated by Gonzales. The fall contest had been listed as “Leans Republican,” but was changed on June 15 to a stronger, “Likely Republican” prediction.

Analysts with Cook Political Report and Inside Elections have also predicted that the Republican candidate, Monica De La Cruz, will dominate. There are no incumbents in the District 15 race.

“We see this as a clearer GOP pickup in the fall,” Crystal Ball analysts wrote.

That’s partly because midterm elections usually don’t favor the president’s party in open-seat districts that didn’t vote for him in the previous presidential election.

And Flores’s victory is “just another piece of evidence that we’re headed for a typical midterm election in which the president’s party is punished by voters,” wrote analyst Nathan Gonzales of Inside Elections.

That matters because all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for reelection on Nov. 8. Currently, there are 209 Republicans, 220 Democrats, and six vacancies in that chamber of Congress. To hold onto control of the House, Democrats can have a net loss of only two seats.

The U.S. Capitol on March 8, 2021. (Erin Scott/Reuters)

In the U.S. Senate, 34 of the 100 seats are on the ballot. Democrats currently control that chamber as well, even though there are 50 Republican senators and only 48 Democrats. That’s because two independent senators caucus with the Democrats and Vice President Kamala Harris casts tie-breaking votes.

If they don’t lose any seats, adding just one more would allow Republicans to recapture control of the Senate. Inside Elections predicts that the Republicans will score a net gain of one to three seats, tipping the balance of power back into the hands of Republicans in the fall.

Even so, Crystal Ball analysts downgraded confidence in Lee’s ability to hang on to his Senate seat representing Utah, moving him out of the “Safe Republican” category. They say the race now is only “Likely” to be held by the Republican incumbent.

Lee still “remains clearly favored,” Crystal Ball’s editors wrote. But he faces a “high-profile challenger in 2016 presidential candidate Evan McMullin, an independent.”

McMullin had been a Republican, but left the party in 2016 and became an option for anti-Trump conservatives when he ran for president.

Lee will likely leave his two primary challengers in the Utah dust on June 28, politics watchers agree.

But the race is considered competitive because McMullin earned the endorsement from the Utah Democratic Party, which could prove valuable. Also, the state’s other senator, Republican Mitt Romney, dealt Lee a blow by withholding an endorsement for his Republican colleague.

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) walks through the Senate subway during a vote on Capitol Hill on Feb. 16, 2022. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Although they still expect Lee to come out on top, Crystal Ball editors downgraded his chances of victory slightly on June 15.

“The Lee–McMullin contest seems to have a little more intrigue than your average Safe Republican Senate race,” they wrote.

There was better news for incumbent Vermont Gov. Phil Scott, a Republican. Crystal Ball pundits showed increased confidence in his victory by upgrading their predicted outcome for his fall election from a “Likely Republican” win. They now consider Scott to be a “Safe Republican.”

Although Vermont is “one of the most Democratic states in the country,” Crystal Ball analysts said that “Scott often ranks among the country’s most popular state executives.”

He has irked Republicans by signing legislation to tighten Vermont’s gun laws and aligned more closely with Democrats on COVID-19 measures.

But if Scott gets past a challenge from two other candidates in the state’s Aug. 9 primary, forecasters at Crystal Ball wrote, “We would not be surprised if he cleared 60% in the general election—as he did in 2020. Vermont voters have not ousted an incumbent governor since 1962.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/17/2022 - 17:00

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EUR/AUD bearish breakdown supported by additional China fiscal stimulus and AU inflation

Weak PMI readings from the Eurozone, an increase in China’s budget deficit ratio, and renewed inflationary pressures in Australia may trigger a persistent…

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  • Weak PMI readings from the Eurozone, an increase in China’s budget deficit ratio, and renewed inflationary pressures in Australia may trigger a persistent bearish sentiment loop in EUR/AUD.
  • Watch the key short-term resistance at 1.6700 for EUR/AUD.
  • A break below 1.6250 key medium-term support on the EUR/AUD may trigger a multi-week bearish impulsive down move.

The Euro (EUR) tumbled overnight throughout the US session as it erased its prior gains against the US dollar recorded on Monday, 23 October; the EUR/USD shed -104 pips from yesterday’s intraday high of 1.0695 to close the US session at 1.0591, its weakest performance in the past seven sessions.

Yesterday’s resurgence of the USD dollar strength has been attributed to a robust set of October flash manufacturing and services PMI data from the US in contrast with weak readings seen in the UK and Eurozone that represented stagflation risks.

Interestingly, the Aussie dollar (AUD) has outperformed the US dollar where the AUD/USD managed to squeeze out a minor daily gain of 21 pips by the close of yesterday’s US session. The resilient movement of the AUD/USD has been impacted by positive news flow out from China, Australia’s key trading partner.

China’s national legislature has just approved a budgetary plan to raise the fiscal deficit ratio for 2023 to around 3.8% of its GDP which was above the initial 3% set in March and set to issue additional sovereign debt worth 1 trillion yuan in Q4. This latest round of additional fiscal stimulus suggests that China’s top policymakers are expanding their initial targeted measures to address the ongoing severe liquidity crunch in the domestic property market as well as to reverse the persistent weak sentiment inherent in the stock market.

In addition, the latest set of Australia’s inflation data surpassed expectations has also reinforced another layer of positive feedback loop in the Aussie dollar which in turn may put Australia’s central bank, RBA on a “hawkish guard” against cutting its policy cash rate too soon.

The less lagging monthly CPI Indicator has risen to an annualized rate of 5.6% in September, above consensus estimates of 5.4%, and surpassed August’s reading of 5.2% which has translated into a second consecutive month of uptick in inflationary growth.

In the lens of technical analysis, a potential bearish configuration setup has emerged in the EUR/AUD cross pair from a short to medium-term perspective.

Major uptrend phase of EUR/AUD is weakening

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Fig 1: EUR/AUD medium-term trend as of 25 Oct 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Even though the price actions of the EUR/AUD have been oscillating within a major ascending channel since its 25 August 2023 low of 1.4285 and traded above the key 200-day moving average so far, the momentum of this up movement is showing signs of bullish exhaustion.

Yesterday (24 October) price action ended with a daily bearish reversal “Marubozu” candlestick coupled with the daily RSI momentum indicator that retreated right at a significant parallel resistance in place since March 2023 at the 65 level which suggests a revival of medium-term bearish momentum.

EUR/AUD bears are now attacking the minor ascending support

Fig 2: EUR/AUD minor short-term trend as of 25 Oct 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The EUR/AUD has now staged a bearish price action follow-through via the breakdown of its minor ascending support from its 29 September 2023 low after a momentum bearish breakdown that was flashed earlier yesterday (24 October) during the European session as seen from the 4-hour RSI momentum indicator.

Watch the 1.6700 key short-term pivotal resistance (also the 50-day moving average) for a further potential slide toward the intermediate supports of 1.6460 and 1.6320 in the first step.

On the other hand, a clearance above 1.6700 invalidates the bearish tone to see the next intermediate resistance coming in at 1.6890.

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GigXR partners with NUS Medicine to deliver holographic clinical scenarios for gastroenterology training

GigXR, Inc., a global provider of holographic healthcare training, announced today its partnership with the Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University…

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GigXR, Inc., a global provider of holographic healthcare training, announced today its partnership with the Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore (NUS Medicine), one of the world’s leading medical schools, to introduce a new gastrointestinal module for the award-winning HoloScenarios application. Created to better prepare medical and nursing students in diagnosing and treating acute gastrointestinal diseases, HoloScenarios: Gastrointestinal delivers evidence-based, robust clinical simulations that present hyperrealistic holographic simulated patients and medical equipment to be used in any physical learning environment, accessed anywhere in the world.

Credit: Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore (NUS Medicine), and GigXR

GigXR, Inc., a global provider of holographic healthcare training, announced today its partnership with the Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore (NUS Medicine), one of the world’s leading medical schools, to introduce a new gastrointestinal module for the award-winning HoloScenarios application. Created to better prepare medical and nursing students in diagnosing and treating acute gastrointestinal diseases, HoloScenarios: Gastrointestinal delivers evidence-based, robust clinical simulations that present hyperrealistic holographic simulated patients and medical equipment to be used in any physical learning environment, accessed anywhere in the world.

Going beyond linear step-based training traditionally seen with virtual reality (VR), HoloScenarios: Gastrointestinal uses mixed reality (MR) to simulate the entire patient journey, while including branching logic to catalyze variance in learning experiences. From taking basic medical history to performing invasive testing and emergency procedures, the new module empowers learners to master vital medical decision-making and manual skills as they would see them in real-life clinical scenarios and patient care.

HoloScenarios: Gastrointestinal is created in collaboration with renowned medical professionals and educators from NUS Medicine who specialize in the fields of Gastrointestinal (GI) Surgery and holographic medical training. The module is delivered by the Gig Immersive Learning Platform, the enterprise-scale platform enabling the creation, curation, and sharing of immersive training applications and modules made by the world’s preeminent healthcare institutions and MR developers.

“Gastrointestinal pathologies can be complex and challenging to diagnose. This module will allow learners to form a deeper understanding and appreciation of the gastrointestinal tract, especially the three-dimensional understanding of anatomy and body functions,” said Associate Professor Alfred Kow Wei Chieh from the school’s Department of Surgery and Assistant Dean (Education) at NUS Medicine. “We believe mixed reality is the next evolution in healthcare training, and collaborating with immersive platform innovators like GigXR helps us to bring this vital content to more learners globally and, ultimately, improve patient care.”

With international medical and surgical credentials that include MBBS (S’pore), M Med (Surg), FRCSEd (Gen Surg), FAMS, and FACS, Associate Professor Kow has trained thousands of healthcare professionals and advanced surgical fellows. He received the 2023 REAL Advancing in Liver Transplantation Award for his contributions to global liver transplantation education and is a founding member of The Holomedicine® Association.

“GigXR has one of the most advanced and comprehensive platforms in mixed reality, especially in medical training, and enables the exchange of developments, innovation, and expertise with a wider community across Asia and beyond,” added Associate Professor Kow. He is also the Head and Senior Consultant of the Division of Hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, at Singapore’s National University Hospital (NUH), the teaching hospital of NUS Medicine.

The new module also delivers enhanced realism in training learners to more accurately diagnose and treat acute gastrointestinal diseases. Whereas VR has been widely used in gastroenterology training for linear step-based skills, such as in endoscopic procedures, it is limited in its ability to simulate fully realized clinical scenarios. Holographic patient simulation in MR merges hyper-realistic holograms in physical learning spaces that accurately reflect the clinical environment and tools with which learners will care for real patients.

With HoloScenarios: Gastrointestinal, learners can interact with the holographic simulated patients, holographic medical equipment, instructors, and each other. This allows them to master both technical and soft skills, such as patient empathy and team communication, in hyper-realistic, safe-to-fail environments that reduce cognitive load. If the holographic patient displays the need for further care, such as a definitive surgery, learners can discuss a definitive treatment plan.

To gain a deeper evaluation of outward symptoms, co-located learners can safely walk around the patient hologram that is displayed on top of their real-world surroundings. Whereas VR locks learners into a virtual “box,” MR enables clear visibility and awareness of physical surroundings. This allows learners to move freely without fear of physical collisions and safety so they can fully focus on learning key gastrointestinal treatment, diagnostic, and communication skills with peers and instructors.

“In healthcare, educators are not only trying to help learners master and retain vital knowledge, but recall and apply it when a patient’s life may be at risk,” said Dr. Gao Yujia, MBBS (S’Pore), MRCS, FRCSEd, Consultant and Assistant Group Chief Technology Officer at Singapore’s National University Health System, and Vice Chairman of The Holomedicine® Association. “With HoloScenarios: Gastrointestinal, learners will have the ability to not only visualize the presentation of a given disease in 3D but better understand how to apply key learnings in the clinical context and within team environments.” Dr Gao is also the Director of Undergraduate Medical Education for Surgery at NUS Medicine.

With scenarios across gastrointestinal pathologies that include gastrointestinal bleeding, intestinal obstruction, and chronic liver failure, learners can master complex and potentially critical situations. They can learn, for example, how to stabilize patients who are dehydrated, bleeding, or septic, as well as the types of diagnostic procedures that may then be required to get a definitive diagnosis. Using mixed reality headsets or any Android, iOS smartphone or tablet, learners can access HoloScenearios: Gastrointestinal from anywhere for remotely distributed, yet highly immersive simulation.

“Immersive technology has accelerated the sharing of expertise for teaching, training, and simulation. Mixed reality, with its natural propensity to facilitate hyperrealistic, safe, and collaborative learning, continues to accelerate both the quality and scale of training outcomes,” said Jared Mermey, CEO of GigXR. “We are immensely proud to partner with NUS Medicine which has been at the forefront of adopting mixed reality in both clinical and educational use cases. By bringing their esteemed expertise onto our platform with the co-creation of HoloScenarios’ newest module, we believe clinical breakthroughs in diagnosing and treating gastrointestinal diseases will take a giant leap forward.”

Designed specifically for pedagogy, the Gig Immersive Learning Platform is trusted by over 70 enterprise-scale healthcare institutions across four continents to build full immersive curricula utilizing a robust content catalog – all of which is managed from a single dashboard. Third-party content developed by leading 3D medical partners, including DICOM Director, 3D4Medical by Elsevier, and ANIMA RES, seamlessly integrates with the platform to provide complementary, in-depth anatomy applications that empower learners with a broader physical context for the pathologies that they study.

“The Gig Immersive Learning Platform has quickly become the premier educational, social network for sharing healthcare training expertise in the immersive format, spanning global healthcare institutions and the Department of Defense to content developers and enterprises large and small,” said David King Lassman, Founder of GigXR. “HoloScenarios: Gastrointestinal marks the latest milestone in our rapidly expanding catalog, which now boasts a dozen different licensable training modules that span holographic simulated patients, clinical scenarios, anatomy, pathophysiology, and 3D medical imaging.”

NUS joins the University of Cambridge and Cambridge University Hospitals (CUH) NHS Foundation Trust, University of Michigan, and Morlen Health, a subsidiary of Northwest Permanente, P.C., as the world-class institutions partnering with GigXR to co-create holographic healthcare training. These simulations include modules centered around Respiratory diseases, Basic Life Support, Advanced Cardiac Life Support, Neurology scenarios, and now, with NUS, Gastrointestinal diseases.

GigXR and NUS Medicine plan to launch HoloScenarios: Gastro in Spring 2024. For more information on GigXR, visit GigXR.com or email sales@gigxr.com. For more information on NUS, visit nus.edu.sg.


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UC Riverside physicist awarded National Medal of Science

RIVERSIDE, Calif. — Physicist Barry C. Barish, a distinguished professor of physics and astronomy at UC Riverside, was awarded the National Medal…

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RIVERSIDE, Calif. — Physicist Barry C. Barish, a distinguished professor of physics and astronomy at UC Riverside, was awarded the National Medal of Science by President Joe Biden at a ceremony held at the White House today. Established in 1959 by the U.S. Congress, the National Medal of Science is the highest recognition the nation can bestow on scientists and engineers.

Credit: Stan Lim, UC Riverside.

RIVERSIDE, Calif. — Physicist Barry C. Barish, a distinguished professor of physics and astronomy at UC Riverside, was awarded the National Medal of Science by President Joe Biden at a ceremony held at the White House today. Established in 1959 by the U.S. Congress, the National Medal of Science is the highest recognition the nation can bestow on scientists and engineers.

The President’s National Medal of Science is given to individuals “deserving of special recognition by reason of their outstanding contributions in biology, computer sciences, education sciences, engineering, geosciences, mathematical and physical sciences, and social, behavioral, and economic sciences, in service to the Nation.” It is administered by National Science Foundation.

Barish was recognized for “exemplary service to science, including groundbreaking research on sub-atomic particles. His leadership of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory led to the first detection of gravitational waves from merging black holes, confirming a key part of Einstein’s Theory of Relativity. He has broadened our understanding of the universe and our Nation’s sense of wonder and discovery.”

“UCR congratulates Prof. Barish on receiving the National Medal of Science,” said UCR Chancellor Kim A. Wilcox. “The distinguished names of previous winners make this recognition very exceptional. Prof. Barish is a strong inspiration for our students, researchers, and faculty. UCR continues to benefit from his extraordinary achievements.”

Barish won the 2017 Nobel Prize in physics for the discovery of gravitational waves. He joined the UCR faculty in 2018. He earned his bachelor’s degree in physics in 1957 and his doctorate in experimental particle physics in 1962, both from from UC Berkeley. He joined Caltech as a postdoc in 1963, became a professor in 1966, and was appointed Linde Professor of Physics in 1991. He led the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory, or LIGO, effort from its inception through the final design stages, and in subsequent discoveries. In 1997, he created the LIGO Scientific Collaboration, which enables more than 1,000 collaborators worldwide to participate in LIGO.

Barish has served on many committees, including co-chairing the subpanel of the High Energy Physics Advisory Panel that developed a long-range plan for U.S. high-energy physics in 2001. He chaired the Commission of Particles and Fields and the U.S. Liaison Committee to the International Union of Pure and Applied Physics.

He is the recipient of the Fudan-Zhongzhi Science Award (China), Princess of Asturias Prize for Science and Technology (Spain), Giuseppe and Vanna Cocconi Prize from the European Physical Society, the Enrico Fermi Prize from the Italian Physical Society, and the Klopsteg Award from the American Association of Physics Teachers. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, which awarded him the Henry Draper Medal. From 2003 to 2010, he served as a presidential appointee to the National Science Board.

He is an elected member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a fellow of both the American Association for the Advancement of Science and of the American Physical Society, where he also served as president. He has received honorary doctorates from the University of Bologna, University of Florida, University of Glasgow, and Universitat de València in Spain. He has been inducted as honorary academician into the Royal Academy of European Doctors, based in Spain. He was elected a foreign member of the Royal Society in 2019. Last year, he won the Copernicus Prize, bestowed by the government of Poland. Earlier this year, he was elected a corresponding member of the Royal Academy of Sciences and Arts of Barcelona. 

The University of California, Riverside is a doctoral research university, a living laboratory for groundbreaking exploration of issues critical to Inland Southern California, the state and communities around the world. Reflecting California’s diverse culture, UCR’s enrollment is more than 26,000 students. The campus opened a medical school in 2013 and has reached the heart of the Coachella Valley by way of the UCR Palm Desert Center. The campus has an annual impact of more than $2.7 billion on the U.S. economy. To learn more, visit www.ucr.edu.


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