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Recreational Markets a Magnet of Affordability and Lifestyle to Both Leisure and Permanent Homeowners and Seekers, According to RE/MAX Canada

Recreational Markets a Magnet of Affordability and Lifestyle to Both Leisure and Permanent Homeowners and Seekers, According to RE/MAX Canada
Canada NewsWire
TORONTO and KELOWNA, BC, May 11, 2022

RE/MAX Canada anticipates average residential prices…

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Recreational Markets a Magnet of Affordability and Lifestyle to Both Leisure and Permanent Homeowners and Seekers, According to RE/MAX Canada

Canada NewsWire

RE/MAX Canada anticipates average residential prices in recreational markets to rise up to 20 per cent for the remainder of 2022

  • 39 per cent of Canadians living in recreational markets are drawn to their affordability, while lifestyle is also a key factor, such as access to water (37 per cent), access to outdoor recreation (33 per cent), and low-density neighbourhoods (31 per cent).
  • 75 per cent of Canadians living in recreational markets are happy with their quality of life.
  • Growing interest and activity in recreational markets is a concern for current residents, with 54 per cent of those living in recreational markets worried that a rapidly rising population will impact their community's charm and liveability, and 41 per cent showing concern about future affordability.

TORONTO and KELOWNA, BC, May 11, 2022 /CNW/ -- Interest in Canada's recreational property markets has continued to grow since the start of the pandemic, drawing homebuyers with their relative affordability and attractive lifestyle, but leaving many current residents concerned that a rising population could negatively impact their community's charm and liveability (54 per cent) and affordability (41 per cent), according to new data from RE/MAX Canada. As a result of heightened interest and activity in recreational markets, coupled with a housing supply shortage, RE/MAX Canada brokers and agents anticipate average residential prices to rise up to 20 per cent for the remainder of 2022.

"The level of activity we are seeing in recreational markets across the country is a direct reflection of the stability and quality of life that these regions provide," says Christopher Alexander, President, RE/MAX Canada. "Throughout the pandemic, we saw a shift in consumer behaviour, where in many cases liveability and affordability trumped all other factors. Yet, many recreational properties, whether as a primary or secondary residence, afford buyers the best of both worlds, compelling Canadians to settle in these areas for the long term. This is putting upward pressure on these markets."

According to a Leger survey conducted on behalf of RE/MAX Canada, 75 per cent of Canadians living in recreational markets are happy with their quality of life. Sales activity in these regions has been driven in large part by young couples and families, retirees, out-of-town buyers and investment buyers, according to a supplemental survey of RE/MAX brokers and agents, who said waterfront properties with open space living and large acreage are in greatest demand.

"Historically, recreational properties are held within and passed down through families, which has been a strong contributor to low inventory in those markets," says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. "With the prospect of declining affordability for many homebuyers across the country, more and more Canadians are choosing to live in recreational areas because of the relative affordability they offer. In many cases, this has resulted in heightened demand for homes in regions that were already experiencing low supply, and could soon be facing more acute challenges of a growing population."

Among the impacts are rising residential prices. In fact, the majority (76 per cent) of RE/MAX Canada brokers and agents are anticipating residential price growth up to 20 per cent through the remainder of 2022. Markets such as Kenora/Lake-Of-The-Woods and Greater Sudbury/Manitoulin Island experienced exponential year-over-year price appreciation of 339.72 per cent and 116.73 per cent, respectively. Local RE/MAX brokers report that prices in these areas will likely remain accessible for many looking to enter the housing market, especially out-of-area buyers coming from larger and more expensive cities across Canada.

Despite Canadians returning to in-person work, the trend of inter-provincial migration into recreational markets as a primary place of residence is likely to continue for the remainder of 2022, with liveability and affordability propelling the movement, according to RE/MAX brokers and agents. While many current residents are expected to remain in the area – signalling added pressure on inventory in recreational markets – the Leger survey reveals that 24 per cent of Canadians who live in a large urban city would like to purchase a recreational property within the next two years. Meanwhile, many of those living in a recreational market have no plans to relocate to a bigger city (population size under 100,000, 43 per cent); or to a large urban city (population over 100,000, 50 per cent).

Regional Deep Dive into Canadian Recreational Markets
RE/MAX Canada brokers and agents were asked to provide an analysis of their local market activity for the first quarter of 2022, as well as an outlook for the remainder of the year.

Atlantic Canada

RE/MAX Canada surveyed brokers in Truro, NS, Sydney, NS, Charlottetown, PEI, Summerside, PEI, St. John's, NL, Moncton, NB and Halifax, NS, and found that all but one market are sitting in seller's territory. Only Sydney, NS is a buyer's market. This trend can be attributed to the supply-demand imbalance that brokers expect to continue through the remainder of 2022. Average recreational property price increases are expected in Truro (+20 per cent); Charlottetown (+12 per cent); Summerside (+ 5.5 per cent); St. John's (+10 per cent); Moncton (+15 per cent); and Halifax (+19 per cent).

Out-of-province buyers are settling into the area for the long-term and are leading market activity in Atlantic Canada among other stakeholders, with waterfront properties being most sought after by consumers. Between January and March of 2022, year-over-year average residential sale prices have increased by 46 per cent in Truro; 22 per cent in Sydney; 18 per cent in Charlottetown; 20 per cent in Summerside; 38 per cent in Moncton; and 26 per cent in Halifax, NS. The only region that experienced a decrease in year-over-year average residential price was St. John's, which declined by approximately seven per cent. RE/MAX brokers and agents in Atlantic Canada anticipate their recreational markets to continue to be sought after by out-of-province buyers and in some cases new immigrants, as governments encourage local migration to the area.

Ontario

Ontario's recreational communities are no exception to the seller's market conditions that are prevalent nationwide, with all regions reporting low inventory and high demand. According to RE/MAX brokers and agents, residential sale prices in recreational markets are expected to grow by 10 per cent in Windsor-Essex; five per cent in Kenora and Lake-Of-The-Woods; five per cent in Greater Sudbury and Manitoulin Island; nine per cent in Southern Georgian Bay; 18 per cent in Muskoka; eight per cent Rideau Lakes. Meanwhile, Orillia is expected to cool slightly, with a 10-per-cent decline anticipated through the end of 2022, compared to the 34.5-per-cent price growth experienced in the first quarter of the year.

Ontario recreational market activity is being driven by a range of buyer types, including out-of-province buyers, singles, millennials, retirees, families and young couples, as well as investors, showing particular interest in waterfront properties. Recreational markets have also been a hot spot for investors, with brokers in Windsor-Essex, Peterborough & Kawartha Lakes, Southern Georgian Bay and Orillia reporting them as primary players in their regions. Despite accelerated buying activity in the wake of the pandemic – particularly by Southern Ontarians – some markets such as Kenora/Lake-Of-The-Woods are expected to regain balance in the remainder of 2022, as Canadians return to the office and activity wanes in some markets.

Western Canada

Western Canada's recreational markets are all skewed toward sellers, including British Columbia's Tofino, Ucluelet, Whistler and Penticton/South Okanagan regions, as well as Canmore, AB. Demand in these areas has continued to thrive, with recreational properties for sale in Whistler and Canmore receiving multiple offers in a trend that has been exacerbated by dismal inventory. Although many pandemic-related restrictions have lifted, RE/MAX brokers in these regions anticipate continued interest from Canadians as shifting attitudes and high gas prices are prompting many to vacation closer to home. Average sale prices are estimated to increase by five per cent in Tofino, Ucluelet, Penticton/South Okanagan and Canmore in the remainder of 2022.

About RE/MAX Canada's 2022 Recreational Market Report:

The 2022 RE/MAX Recreational Markets Report includes data and insights supplied by RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents were surveyed on market activity and local developments based on local board data and market activity in 2021 and 2022. *Small markets were defined as those having the highest population growth rates in 2021, according to Statistics Canada, and population under 440,000, with a secondary criterion in order to ensure a good sample of national markets of those with a population of 100,000 or less. **Recreational markets were defined as an area with properties most used for leisure (i.e., a community with recreational amenities like a lake/river/skiing etc.). 

About Leger

Leger is the largest Canadian-owned full-service market research firm. An online survey of 1,525 Canadians was completed between March 25-27 using Leger's online panel. Leger's online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate of 90 per cent. A probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

About the RE/MAX Network

As one of the leading global real estate franchisors, RE/MAX, LLC is a subsidiary of RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) with more than 140,000 agents in almost 9,000 offices with a presence in more than 110 countries and territories. RE/MAX Canada refers to RE/MAX of Western Canada (1998), LLC and RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada, Inc., and RE/MAX Promotions, Inc., each of which are affiliates of RE/MAX, LLC. Nobody in the world sells more real estate than RE/MAX, as measured by residential transaction sides. RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with an innovative, entrepreneurial culture affording its agents and franchisees the flexibility to operate their businesses with great independence. RE/MAX agents have lived, worked and served in their local communities for decades, raising millions of dollars every year for Children's Miracle Network Hospitals® and other charities. To learn more about RE/MAX, to search home listings or find an agent in your community, please visit remax.ca. For the latest news from RE/MAX Canada, please visit blog.remax.ca.

Forward-looking statements
This report includes "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the "safe harbour" provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of words such as "believe," "intend," "expect," "estimate," "plan," "outlook," "project," and other similar words and expressions that predict or indicate future events or trends that are not statements of historical matters. These forward-looking statements include statements regarding housing market conditions and the Company's results of operations, performance and growth. Forward-looking statements should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results. Forward-looking statements are based on information available at the time those statements are made and/or management's good faith belief as of that time with respect to future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in or suggested by the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include (1) the global COVID-19 pandemic, which has impacted the Company and continues to pose significant and widespread risks to the Company's business, the Company's ability to successfully close the anticipated reacquisition and to integrate the reacquired regions into its business, (3) changes in the real estate market or interest rates and availability of financing, (4) changes in business and economic activity in general, (5) the Company's ability to attract and retain quality franchisees, (6) the Company's franchisees' ability to recruit and retain real estate agents and mortgage loan originators, (7) changes in laws and regulations, (8) the Company's ability to enhance, market, and protect the RE/MAX and Motto Mortgage brands, (9) the Company's ability to implement its technology initiatives, and (10) fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, and those risks and uncertainties described in the sections entitled "Risk Factors" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in the most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") and similar disclosures in subsequent periodic and current reports filed with the SEC, which are available on the investor relations page of the Company's website at www.remax.com and on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. Except as required by law, the Company does not intend, and undertakes no duty, to update this information to reflect future events or circumstances.

SOURCE RE/MAX Canada

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Economics

After a near 10% rally this week can the Netflix share price make a comeback?

The Netflix share price rallied by nearly 10% (9.6%) this week after co-CEO Ted Sarandos confirmed the film and television streaming market leader is to…

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The Netflix share price rallied by nearly 10% (9.6%) this week after co-CEO Ted Sarandos confirmed the film and television streaming market leader is to introduce a new ad-supported, cheaper subscription. The company also announced it is to lay off another 300 employees, around 4% of its global workforce, in addition to the 150 redundancies last month.

Netflix has been forced into a period of belt-tightening after announcing a 200,000 subscriber-strong net loss over the first quarter of 2022. The U.S. tech giant also ominously forecast expectations for the loss of a further 2 million subscribers over the current quarter that will conclude at the end of this month.

netflix inc

The company has faced increasing sector competition with Paramount+ its latest new rival, joining Amazon Prime, Disney+, HBO Max and a handful of other new streaming platforms jostling for market share. A more competitive environment has combined with a hangover from the subscriber boom Netflix benefitted from over the Covid-19 pandemic and spiralling cost of living crisis.

Despite the strong gains of the past week, Netflix’s share price is still down over 68% for 2022 and 64% in the last 12 months. Stock markets have generally suffered this year with investors switching into risk-off mode in the face of spiralling inflation, rising interest rates, fears of a recession and the geopolitical crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Growth stocks like Netflix whose high valuations were heavily reliant on the value of future revenues have been hit hardest. No recognised member of Wall Street’s Big Tech cabal has escaped punishment this year with even the hugely profitable Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon all seeing their valuations slide by between around 20% and 30%.

But all of those other tech companies have diversified revenue streams, bank profits which dwarf those of Netflix and are sitting on huge cash piles. The more narrowly focused Meta Platforms (Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram) which still relies exclusively on ad revenue generated from online advertising on its social media platforms, has also been hit harder, losing half of its value this year.

But among Wall Street’s established, profitable Big Tech stocks, Netflix has suffered the steepest fall in its valuation. But it is still profitable, even if it has taken on significant debt investing in its original content catalogue. And it is still the international market leader by a distance in a growing content streaming market.

justwatch

Source: JustWatch

Even if the competition is hotting up, Netflix still offers subscribers by far the biggest and most diversified catalogue of film and television content available on the market. And the overall value of the video content streaming market is also expected to keep growing strongly for the next several years. Even if annual growth is forecast to drop into the high single figures in future years.

revenue growth

Source: Statista

In that context, there are numerous analysts to have been left with the feeling that while the Netflix share price may well have been over-inflated during the pandemic and due a correction, it has been over-sold. Which could make the stock attractive at its current price of $190.85, compared to the record high of $690.31 reached as recently as October last year.

What’s next for the Netflix share price?

As a company, Netflix is faced with a transition period over the next few years. For the past decade, it has been a high growth company with investors focused on subscriber numbers. The recent dip notwithstanding, it has done exceedingly well on that score, attracting around 220 million paying customers globally.

Netflix established its market-leading position by investing heavily in its content catalogue, first by buying up the rights to popular television shows and films and then pouring hundreds of millions into exclusive content. That investment was necessary to establish a market leading position against its historical rivals Amazon Prime, which benefits from the deeper pockets of its parent company, and Hulu in the USA.

Netflix’s investment in its own exclusive content catalogue also helped compensate for the loss of popular shows like The Office, The Simpsons and Friends. When deals for the rights to these shows and many hit films have ended over the past few years their owners have chosen not to resell them to Netflix. Mainly because they planned or had already launched rival streaming services like Disney+ (The Simpsons) and HBO Max (The Office and Friends).

Netflix will continue to show third party content it acquires the rights to. But with the bulk of the most popular legacy television and film shows now available exclusively on competitor platforms launched by or otherwise associated with rights holders, it will rely ever more heavily on its own exclusive content.

That means continued investment, the expected budget for this year is $17 billion, which will put a strain on profitability. But most analysts expect the company to continue to be a major player in the video streaming sector.

Its strategy to invest in localised content produced specifically for international markets has proven a good one. It has strengthened its offering on big international markets like Japan, South Korea, India and Brazil compared to rivals that exclusively offer English-language content produced with an American audience in mind.

The approach has also produced some of Netflix’s biggest hits across international audiences, like the South Korean dystopian thriller Squid Games and the film Parasite, another Korean production that won the 2020 Academy Award for best picture – the first ever ‘made for streaming’ movie to do so.

Netflix is also, like many of its streaming platform rivals, making a push into sport. It has just lost out to Disney-owned ESPN, the current rights holder, in a bid to acquire the F1 rights for the USA. But having made one big move for prestigious sports rights, even if it ultimately failed, it signals a shift in strategy for a company that hasn’t previously shown an interest in competing for sports audiences.

Over the next year or so, Netflix’s share price is likely to be most influenced by the success of its launch of the planned lower-cost ad-supported subscription. It’s a big call that reverses the trend of the last decade away from linear television programming supported by ad revenue in its pursuit of new growth.

It will take Netflix at least a year or two to roll out a new ad-supported platform globally and in the meanwhile, especially if its forecast of losing another 2 million subscribers this quarter turns out to be accurate, the share price could potentially face further pain. But there is also a suspicion that the stock has generally been oversold and will eventually reclaim some of the huge losses of the past several months.

How much of that loss of share price is reclaimed will most probably rely on take-up of the new ad-supported cheaper membership tier. There is huge potential there with the company estimating around 100 million viewers have been accessing the platform via shared passwords. That’s been clamped down on recently and will continue to be because Netflix is determined to monetise those 100 million viewers contributing nothing to its revenues.

If a big enough chunk of them opt for continued access at the cost of watching ads, the company’s revenue growth could quickly return to healthy levels again. And that could see some strong upside for the Netflix share price in the context of its currently deflated level.

The post After a near 10% rally this week can the Netflix share price make a comeback? first appeared on Trading and Investment News.

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Government

Aura High Yield SME Fund: Letter to Investors 24 June 2022

The RBA delivered a speech this week indicating faster monetary policy tightening is to come in the near-term with the aim of curbing the rate of inflation….

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The RBA delivered a speech this week indicating faster monetary policy tightening is to come in the near-term with the aim of curbing the rate of inflation.

Inflation and Monetary Policy 1,2

This week, RBA Governor Philip Lowe spoke about the department’s monetary policy intervention to tackle inflation in the evolving economic environment. Over the last six months, similar factors have continued to put pressure on food and energy prices – namely the war in Ukraine, foods on the East coast, and Covid lockdowns in China. The ongoing lockdowns in China are causing disruptions in manufacturing and production and supply chains coupled with strong global demand that is unable to be met. These pressures have forced households and businesses to absorb the rising cost of living.

To demonstrate the rise, the RBA reporting this week on Business Conditions and Sentiments saw:

  • Almost a third of all businesses (31 per cent) have difficulty finding suitable staff;
  • Nearly half (46 per cent) of all businesses have experienced increased operating expenses; and
  • More than two in five businesses (41 per cent) face supply chain disruptions, which has remained steady since it peaked in January 2022 (47 per cent).

* The Survey of Business Conditions and Sentiments was not conducted between July 2021 to December 2021 (inclusive)

Inflation is being experienced globally, although Australia remains below that of most other advanced economies sitting at 5.1 per cent. The share of items in the CPI basket with annualised price increases of more than 3 per cent is at the highest level since 1990 as displayed in the graph below.

With additional information on leading indicators now on hand, the RBA has pushed their inflation forecast up from 6 to 7 per cent for the December quarter, due to persistently high petrol and energy prices. After this period, the RBA expects inflation will begin to decline.

We are beginning to see pandemic-related supply side issues resolve, with delivery times shortening slightly and businesses finding alternative solutions for global production and logistic networks. Whilst there is still a way to go in normalising the flow in the supply side and the possibility that further disruptions and setbacks could occur, the global production system is adapting accordingly, which should help alleviate some of the inflationary pressures.

The RBA’s goal is to ensure inflation returns to a 2-3 per cent target range over time, with the view that high inflation causes damage to the economy, reduces people’s purchasing power and devalues people’s savings.

Household Wealth 3

Growth of 1.2 per cent in household wealth, equivalent to $173 billion, was reported in the March quarter. The rise was a result of an increase in housing prices in the March quarter. Prices have started reversing since that read.

Demand for credit also boomed, with a record total demand for credit of $218.8 billion for the March quarter. The rise was driven by private non-financial corporations demanding $153.2 billion, while households and government borrowed $41.9 billion and $17.5 billion respectively. 

We will likely see a significant shift in household wealth and credit demand in next quarter’s report given the rising interest rate environment, depressed household valuations and elevated pricing pressures. 

Portfolio Management Commentary

A lag in leading economic indicators has shifted the RBA’s outlook, with an increase in the expected level of inflation to peak at 7 per cent and rate rises to come harder and faster in the near term. From a portfolio standpoint we are not seeing any degradation in our underlying portfolio and open dialogue with our lenders has us confident in their borrowing base. We are maintaining a close eye on the economic environment to ensure we maintain the performance of our Fund and ensure our lenders are in a position to maintain performance and strive to capitalise off the back of economic shifts.

1 RBA Inflation and Monetary Policy Speech – 21 June 2022

2 RBA Inflation and Monetary Policy Speech – 21 June 2022

3 Australian National Accounts: Finance and Wealth

You can learn more about the Aura High Yield SME Fund here.

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Economics

Home Showings Across US Plunge 24%, Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated

Home Showings Across US Plunge 24%, Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated

Authored by Naveen Anthrapully via The Epoch Times,

Home showings across…

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Home Showings Across US Plunge 24%, Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated

Authored by Naveen Anthrapully via The Epoch Times,

Home showings across the United States have fallen, according to a report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), with all four regions registering a decline.

Home showings—when a potential buyer takes a private home tour with an agent—were down by 24 percent year-on-year in May, with total showings across the country at 785,005, said the NAR SentriLock Home Showings Report. SentriLock is a lockbox and real estate management solutions company.

All four regions in the United States saw a decrease in showings year-on-year, with the Northwest falling by 55 percent, Midwest by 29 percent, West by 27 percent, and the South by 14 percent.

Total SentriLock cards fell 2 percent YoY to 214,868. The cards allow realtors access to Sentrilock lockboxes—which hold keys to a home and allow communal access to all real estate agents—and indicate the number of realtors who conduct the showing.

The number of showings per card, which reflects the strength of buyer interest per listed property, decreased 23 percent YoY in May nationwide. Region-wise, showings per card in the West fell by 29 percent, the South by 23 percent, and the Midwest by 22 percent. Only the Northeast registered an increase at 45 percent.

Meanwhile, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) fell by two points to 67 in June, which the organization called a “troubling sign” for the housing market and broader economy.

According to NAHB Chair Jerry Konter, the six consecutive monthly declines of HMI is a “clear sign of a slowing housing market in a high-inflation, slow-growth economic environment.”

This is the lowest HMI reading since June 2020. The index had hit a record high of 90 at the end of 2020 when the pandemic triggered strong demand for homes.

Elevated Mortgage Rates

The fall in home showings is happening as mortgage rates remain at elevated levels. A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage had an average interest rate of 5.81 percent as of June 22, according to data from Freddie Mac.

Realtor.com is expecting home prices and mortgage rates to continue climbing while home sales drop as buyers get priced out from homeownership, based on a June 13 analysis of market trends. The rise in mortgage rates is driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve hiking interest rates to control inflation, the company noted.

“Rising interest rates have shifted the foundation of the economy as well as the housing market. So many homebuyers take out mortgages so that rising rates affect how expensive homeownership is,” said the company’s Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “It’s causing buyers to make tough trade-offs and disrupting the housing market.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/26/2022 - 18:30

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