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Real Estate Investors Are Buying A Record Share Of US Homes, Sending Prices Soaring

Real Estate Investors Are Buying A Record Share Of US Homes, Sending Prices Soaring

Earlier this week, we reported that Blackrock, America’s…

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Real Estate Investors Are Buying A Record Share Of US Homes, Sending Prices Soaring

Earlier this week, we reported that Blackrock, America's largest commercial and residential landlord, just got even bigger with the purchase of 12,000 apartments in the sunbelt (among other assets) when it acquired Preferred Apartment Communities for $5.8 billion. But Blackrock has not been alone in quietly swooping up US residential real estate.

According to the latest data from real-estate consultancy Redfin, real estate investors - i.e., those who purchase real estate not with the intention of living in it but in expectations of reselling and/or renting it out - bought a record 18.4% of the homes that were sold in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of 2021, up from 12.6% a year earlier and a revised rate of 17.4% in the third quarter.

Investors bought 80,293 homes in the fourth quarter, up 43.9% from a year earlier (although investor market share hit a record in the fourth quarter, the number of homes bought by investors declined by 8000, or 9.1%, from the third-quarter peak; but it’s up significantly from pre-pandemic levels). The housing-supply crunch constrained home sales for all homebuyers, including investors. The drop from the third quarter is also due partly to seasonality, as real estate activity tends to slow at the end of the year. In 2019, for example, the number of homes investors purchased dropped 4% from the third to fourth quarters. 

The number of homes bought by investors jumped throughout 2021 as home prices rose rapidly–they were up 15% year over year in December–alongside a shortage of homes for sale. Investors are taking advantage of intense demand for rentals and increasing prices, with the average monthly rental payment for a new lease up 14% in December.  

Just over three-quarters (75.3%) of investor home purchases were paid for with all cash in the fourth quarter. 

Here is a summary of Redfin's findings:

  • Investors bought 18.4% of the U.S. homes that were purchased in the fourth quarter, a record high.
  • Investor demand is stronger than ever as home prices increase, allowing investors to charge higher rents and sell flipped homes for higher prices.
  • Real estate investors bought roughly 80,000 U.S. homes worth a total of $50 billion in the fourth quarter, up significantly from a year earlier.
  • Mid-priced homes are becoming more popular with investors, making up 32% of investor purchases in the fourth quarter, a record high. Low-priced homes are still most popular with investors, making up 37% of purchases.
  • Investors had the highest market shares in Atlanta, Charlotte and Jacksonville.

“While record-high home prices are problematic for individual homebuyers, they’re one reason why investor demand is stronger than ever,” said Redfin economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “Investors are chasing rising prices because rental payments are also skyrocketing, incentivizing investors who plan to rent out the homes they buy. The supply shortage is also an advantage for landlords, as many people who can’t find a home to buy are forced to rent instead. Plus, investors who ‘flip’ homes see potential to turn a big profit as home prices soar.”

“Investors buying up a record share of for-sale homes is one factor making this market difficult for regular homebuyers,” Bokhari continued. “It’s tough to compete with all-cash offers, and rising mortgage rates have a smaller impact on investors because they often don’t use mortgages at all. If home-price growth slows in the coming year, investor demand may cool down because rental price growth will slow, too.”

In dollar terms, investors bought $49.9 billion worth of homes in the fourth quarter, up from $35 billion a year earlier. The typical home investors purchased sold for $432,971, up nearly 10% from a year earlier. The price increase comes amid surging prices in the overall housing market.

Mid-priced homes are gaining popularity with investors, representing 32.3% of their purchases in the fourth quarter, a record high (essentially tied with 32.4% in the third quarter) and up from 24.1% a year earlier. 

Low-priced homes are still more popular than more expensive options for investors, but not by much. Low-priced homes made up 37% of investor purchases in the fourth quarter, a record low and down from 44.5% a year earlier. 

Meanwhile, high-priced homes represented 30.7% of investor purchases, up slightly from 30% in the third quarter but down slightly from 31.4% a year earlier. 

“Lower price points are still popular with investors, and I don’t expect that to change. One of their main goals is still to buy low and sell high,” Bokhari said. “But investors are also increasingly interested in higher-priced properties, partly because there’s a lack of low-priced inventory and partly because they’re betting on rising demand for high-end rentals.”

Single-family homes made up about three-quarters (74.8%) of investor purchases in the fourth quarter. That’s near the highest level on record, essentially tied with the third quarter (75%), and up from 72.2% a year before.

Condos and coops made up 15.4% of investor purchases, down from 17.8% a year earlier and 16.1% in the third quarter. Townhouses represented 6% of investor purchases, up from 5.3% a year earlier, and multifamily properties made up 3.8%, down from 4.7% a year earlier.

Single-family homes surged in popularity at the beginning of the pandemic, with many homebuyers searching for space for remote work and online schooling. Investors are likely buying up single-family homes because they still make attractive rentals for those reasons.

Investors had the biggest market share in relatively affordable Sun Belt metros. In Atlanta, 32.7% of homes that sold in the fourth quarter were bought by investors, the biggest share of the 40 U.S. metros in this analysis, and in Charlotte it was 32.1%. They’re followed by Jacksonville, FL (29.8%), Las Vegas (29.2%) and Phoenix (28.4%). 

The top three metros for investors—Atlanta, Charlotte and Jacksonville—all had median home-sale prices under the national median of $383,000 in December, making them attractive to investors. 

Home prices have risen significantly over the last year in Las Vegas and Phoenix, up 24.8% year over year to $399,400 and up 28% to $435,200, respectively. They’re also two of the most popular migration destinations in the U.S., attracting tens of thousands of new residents in 2021. Atlanta and Charlotte are also among the most popular destinations for Americans moving from one metro area to another, making all four of those areas good bets for investors hoping to rent out properties. 

Investor purchases more than doubled from last year in Jacksonville, with a 157% year-over-year increase, the biggest jump of the metros in this analysis. It’s followed by Las Vegas (105.5% year-over-year increase), Charlotte (92.8%), Baltimore (83%), and Atlanta (74.4%). Investor purchases increased from the year before in all but four of the metros in this analysis (Seattle, Nassau County, NY, Newark, NJ and Warren, MI). 

Just over 6% of Providence, RI homes that sold in the third quarter were bought by investors, the smallest share of the metros in this analysis. It’s followed by Washington, D.C. (7.8%), Warren, MI (8.2%), Virginia Beach (8.6%) and Montgomery County, PA (8.6%).

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/18/2022 - 20:40

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Government

Mathematicians use AI to identify emerging COVID-19 variants

Scientists at The Universities of Manchester and Oxford have developed an AI framework that can identify and track new and concerning COVID-19 variants…

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Scientists at The Universities of Manchester and Oxford have developed an AI framework that can identify and track new and concerning COVID-19 variants and could help with other infections in the future.

Credit: source: https://phil.cdc.gov/Details.aspx?pid=23312

Scientists at The Universities of Manchester and Oxford have developed an AI framework that can identify and track new and concerning COVID-19 variants and could help with other infections in the future.

The framework combines dimension reduction techniques and a new explainable clustering algorithm called CLASSIX, developed by mathematicians at The University of Manchester. This enables the quick identification of groups of viral genomes that might present a risk in the future from huge volumes of data.

The study, presented this week in the journal PNAS, could support traditional methods of tracking viral evolution, such as phylogenetic analysis, which currently require extensive manual curation.

Roberto Cahuantzi, a researcher at The University of Manchester and first and corresponding author of the paper, said: “Since the emergence of COVID-19, we have seen multiple waves of new variants, heightened transmissibility, evasion of immune responses, and increased severity of illness.

“Scientists are now intensifying efforts to pinpoint these worrying new variants, such as alpha, delta and omicron, at the earliest stages of their emergence. If we can find a way to do this quickly and efficiently, it will enable us to be more proactive in our response, such as tailored vaccine development and may even enable us to eliminate the variants before they become established.”

Like many other RNA viruses, COVID-19 has a high mutation rate and short time between generations meaning it evolves extremely rapidly. This means identifying new strains that are likely to be problematic in the future requires considerable effort.

Currently, there are almost 16 million sequences available on the GISAID database (the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data), which provides access to genomic data of influenza viruses.

Mapping the evolution and history of all COVID-19 genomes from this data is currently done using extremely large amounts of computer and human time.

The described method allows automation of such tasks. The researchers processed 5.7 million high-coverage sequences in only one to two days on a standard modern laptop; this would not be possible for existing methods, putting identification of concerning pathogen strains in the hands of more researchers due to reduced resource needs.

Thomas House, Professor of Mathematical Sciences at The University of Manchester, said: “The unprecedented amount of genetic data generated during the pandemic demands improvements to our methods to analyse it thoroughly. The data is continuing to grow rapidly but without showing a benefit to curating this data, there is a risk that it will be removed or deleted.

“We know that human expert time is limited, so our approach should not replace the work of humans all together but work alongside them to enable the job to be done much quicker and free our experts for other vital developments.”

The proposed method works by breaking down genetic sequences of the COVID-19 virus into smaller “words” (called 3-mers) represented as numbers by counting them. Then, it groups similar sequences together based on their word patterns using machine learning techniques.

Stefan Güttel, Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Manchester, said: “The clustering algorithm CLASSIX we developed is much less computationally demanding than traditional methods and is fully explainable, meaning that it provides textual and visual explanations of the computed clusters.”

Roberto Cahuantzi added: “Our analysis serves as a proof of concept, demonstrating the potential use of machine learning methods as an alert tool for the early discovery of emerging major variants without relying on the need to generate phylogenies.

“Whilst phylogenetics remains the ‘gold standard’ for understanding the viral ancestry, these machine learning methods can accommodate several orders of magnitude more sequences than the current phylogenetic methods and at a low computational cost.”


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International

There will soon be one million seats on this popular Amtrak route

“More people are taking the train than ever before,” says Amtrak’s Executive Vice President.

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While the size of the United States makes it hard for it to compete with the inter-city train access available in places like Japan and many European countries, Amtrak trains are a very popular transportation option in certain pockets of the country — so much so that the country’s national railway company is expanding its Northeast Corridor by more than one million seats.

Related: This is what it's like to take a 19-hour train from New York to Chicago

Running from Boston all the way south to Washington, D.C., the route is one of the most popular as it passes through the most densely populated part of the country and serves as a commuter train for those who need to go between East Coast cities such as New York and Philadelphia for business.

Veronika Bondarenko captured this photo of New York’s Moynihan Train Hall. 

Veronika Bondarenko

Amtrak launches new routes, promises travelers ‘additional travel options’

Earlier this month, Amtrak announced that it was adding four additional Northeastern routes to its schedule — two more routes between New York’s Penn Station and Union Station in Washington, D.C. on the weekend, a new early-morning weekday route between New York and Philadelphia’s William H. Gray III 30th Street Station and a weekend route between Philadelphia and Boston’s South Station.

More Travel:

According to Amtrak, these additions will increase Northeast Corridor’s service by 20% on the weekdays and 10% on the weekends for a total of one million additional seats when counted by how many will ride the corridor over the year.

“More people are taking the train than ever before and we’re proud to offer our customers additional travel options when they ride with us on the Northeast Regional,” Amtrak Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Eliot Hamlisch said in a statement on the new routes. “The Northeast Regional gets you where you want to go comfortably, conveniently and sustainably as you breeze past traffic on I-95 for a more enjoyable travel experience.”

Here are some of the other Amtrak changes you can expect to see

Amtrak also said that, in the 2023 financial year, the Northeast Corridor had nearly 9.2 million riders — 8% more than it had pre-pandemic and a 29% increase from 2022. The higher demand, particularly during both off-peak hours and the time when many business travelers use to get to work, is pushing Amtrak to invest into this corridor in particular.

To reach more customers, Amtrak has also made several changes to both its routes and pricing system. In the fall of 2023, it introduced a type of new “Night Owl Fare” — if traveling during very late or very early hours, one can go between cities like New York and Philadelphia or Philadelphia and Washington. D.C. for $5 to $15.

As travel on the same routes during peak hours can reach as much as $300, this was a deliberate move to reach those who have the flexibility of time and might have otherwise preferred more affordable methods of transportation such as the bus. After seeing strong uptake, Amtrak added this type of fare to more Boston routes.

The largest distances, such as the ones between Boston and New York or New York and Washington, are available at the lowest rate for $20.

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International

The next pandemic? It’s already here for Earth’s wildlife

Bird flu is decimating species already threatened by climate change and habitat loss.

I am a conservation biologist who studies emerging infectious diseases. When people ask me what I think the next pandemic will be I often say that we are in the midst of one – it’s just afflicting a great many species more than ours.

I am referring to the highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1), otherwise known as bird flu, which has killed millions of birds and unknown numbers of mammals, particularly during the past three years.

This is the strain that emerged in domestic geese in China in 1997 and quickly jumped to humans in south-east Asia with a mortality rate of around 40-50%. My research group encountered the virus when it killed a mammal, an endangered Owston’s palm civet, in a captive breeding programme in Cuc Phuong National Park Vietnam in 2005.

How these animals caught bird flu was never confirmed. Their diet is mainly earthworms, so they had not been infected by eating diseased poultry like many captive tigers in the region.

This discovery prompted us to collate all confirmed reports of fatal infection with bird flu to assess just how broad a threat to wildlife this virus might pose.

This is how a newly discovered virus in Chinese poultry came to threaten so much of the world’s biodiversity.

H5N1 originated on a Chinese poultry farm in 1997. ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock

The first signs

Until December 2005, most confirmed infections had been found in a few zoos and rescue centres in Thailand and Cambodia. Our analysis in 2006 showed that nearly half (48%) of all the different groups of birds (known to taxonomists as “orders”) contained a species in which a fatal infection of bird flu had been reported. These 13 orders comprised 84% of all bird species.

We reasoned 20 years ago that the strains of H5N1 circulating were probably highly pathogenic to all bird orders. We also showed that the list of confirmed infected species included those that were globally threatened and that important habitats, such as Vietnam’s Mekong delta, lay close to reported poultry outbreaks.

Mammals known to be susceptible to bird flu during the early 2000s included primates, rodents, pigs and rabbits. Large carnivores such as Bengal tigers and clouded leopards were reported to have been killed, as well as domestic cats.

Our 2006 paper showed the ease with which this virus crossed species barriers and suggested it might one day produce a pandemic-scale threat to global biodiversity.

Unfortunately, our warnings were correct.

A roving sickness

Two decades on, bird flu is killing species from the high Arctic to mainland Antarctica.

In the past couple of years, bird flu has spread rapidly across Europe and infiltrated North and South America, killing millions of poultry and a variety of bird and mammal species. A recent paper found that 26 countries have reported at least 48 mammal species that have died from the virus since 2020, when the latest increase in reported infections started.

Not even the ocean is safe. Since 2020, 13 species of aquatic mammal have succumbed, including American sea lions, porpoises and dolphins, often dying in their thousands in South America. A wide range of scavenging and predatory mammals that live on land are now also confirmed to be susceptible, including mountain lions, lynx, brown, black and polar bears.

The UK alone has lost over 75% of its great skuas and seen a 25% decline in northern gannets. Recent declines in sandwich terns (35%) and common terns (42%) were also largely driven by the virus.

Scientists haven’t managed to completely sequence the virus in all affected species. Research and continuous surveillance could tell us how adaptable it ultimately becomes, and whether it can jump to even more species. We know it can already infect humans – one or more genetic mutations may make it more infectious.

At the crossroads

Between January 1 2003 and December 21 2023, 882 cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus were reported from 23 countries, of which 461 (52%) were fatal.

Of these fatal cases, more than half were in Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Laos. Poultry-to-human infections were first recorded in Cambodia in December 2003. Intermittent cases were reported until 2014, followed by a gap until 2023, yielding 41 deaths from 64 cases. The subtype of H5N1 virus responsible has been detected in poultry in Cambodia since 2014. In the early 2000s, the H5N1 virus circulating had a high human mortality rate, so it is worrying that we are now starting to see people dying after contact with poultry again.

It’s not just H5 subtypes of bird flu that concern humans. The H10N1 virus was originally isolated from wild birds in South Korea, but has also been reported in samples from China and Mongolia.

Recent research found that these particular virus subtypes may be able to jump to humans after they were found to be pathogenic in laboratory mice and ferrets. The first person who was confirmed to be infected with H10N5 died in China on January 27 2024, but this patient was also suffering from seasonal flu (H3N2). They had been exposed to live poultry which also tested positive for H10N5.

Species already threatened with extinction are among those which have died due to bird flu in the past three years. The first deaths from the virus in mainland Antarctica have just been confirmed in skuas, highlighting a looming threat to penguin colonies whose eggs and chicks skuas prey on. Humboldt penguins have already been killed by the virus in Chile.

A colony of king penguins.
Remote penguin colonies are already threatened by climate change. AndreAnita/Shutterstock

How can we stem this tsunami of H5N1 and other avian influenzas? Completely overhaul poultry production on a global scale. Make farms self-sufficient in rearing eggs and chicks instead of exporting them internationally. The trend towards megafarms containing over a million birds must be stopped in its tracks.

To prevent the worst outcomes for this virus, we must revisit its primary source: the incubator of intensive poultry farms.

Diana Bell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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