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RE/MAX Canada Network expects residential sale prices to decrease 2.2 per cent this fall

RE/MAX Canada Network expects residential sale prices to decrease 2.2 per cent this fall
Canada NewsWire
TORONTO and KELOWNA, BC, Sept. 28, 2022

RE/MAX Canada brokers and agents anticipate residential prices to ease by 2.2 per cent this fall, due t…

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RE/MAX Canada Network expects residential sale prices to decrease 2.2 per cent this fall

Canada NewsWire

  • RE/MAX Canada brokers and agents anticipate residential prices to ease by 2.2 per cent this fall, due to high inflation, rising interest rates and economic uncertainty
  • Rising interest rates have prompted 44 per cent of Canadians to temporarily shelf their home-buying aspirations, while 34 per cent say they won't hold on purchasing a home for the foreseeable future
  • Recession worries have impelled 41 per cent of Canadians to wait to purchase/sell their home in fall 2022

TORONTO and KELOWNA, BC, Sept. 28, 2022 /CNW/ -- RE/MAX brokers and agents are anticipating the national average residential sale price in Canada to decline 2.2 per cent in the final months of the year (September-December), according to RE/MAX Canada's 2022 Fall Housing Market Outlook Report. This market moderation comes on the heels of rising interest rates, record-high inflation and broader global and economic uncertainties that have impacted consumer confidence and market activity. Bucking the downward trend, six out of 30 markets analyzed are likely to experience modest price appreciation between 1.5 and seven per cent. Meanwhile, RE/MAX brokers and agents expect a decline in sales this fall, in 24 out of 30 markets surveyed.

DOWNLOAD THE 2022 FALL HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK DATA TABLE

In a survey of RE/MAX brokers and agents, 22 out of 30 said rising interest rates have affected activity in their local residential market this year, with some indicating that this has been the biggest factor impacting homebuyer and seller confidence – a trend that is likely to continue for the remainder of 2022. These insights are supported by a new Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX Canada, which reveals that 44 per cent of Canadians agree that rising interest rates are compelling them to hold on buying a property this fall, while 34 per cent say they won't hold.

"While we are still facing significant housing supply shortages across the country, many markets are experiencing softer sales activity given recent interest rate hikes. This provides some reprieve from the unprecedented demand and unsustainable price increases we've seen across Canada through 2021 and in early 2022," says Christopher Alexander, President at RE/MAX Canada. "However, the current lull in the market is only temporary. Until housing supply increases, these 'boom' and 'bust' cycles will likely be a recurring event."

"Despite the fact that nearly half of Canadians are waiting to buy or sell a home, we're confident that as economic conditions improve by mid-2023, activity will resume," says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. "Timing the market for short-term investment is extremely difficult and rarely successful. But real estate as a long-term investment continues to yield solid returns. If someone needs to engage in the housing market, regardless of those cyclical peaks and valleys, being informed and working with an experienced real estate professional can help consumers clarify some of those unknowns and make the best decision possible."

Regional Fall Housing Market Insights

RE/MAX brokers and agents in Canada were asked to provide an analysis of their local market this fall and share their estimated outlook for the remaining months of 2022 (September-December).

Western Canada and the Prairies

In regions such as Vancouver, BC, Victoria, BC, Kelowna, BC, and Edmonton, AB, RE/MAX brokers reported rising interest rates as a factor impacting local market activity, resulting in softening consumer confidence, fewer multiple offers from buyers, and a shift toward more balanced conditions between buyers and sellers. In all regions analysed in Western Canada and the Prairies, with the exception of Calgary, AB and Edmonton, AB, the average residential sale price is expected to decline between zero and 6.5 per cent.

In Calgary, AB, interest rate hikes and recession worries have not had a notable effect on the market, according to RE/MAX brokers and agents which has largely been insulated due to its relative affordability. As such, the region is anticipating a modest price increase of three per cent for the remainder of the year. In Edmonton, AB, rising interest rates have had the greatest impact on homes priced from $500,000 to $1,000,000, while those priced at $400,000 or less are still relatively affordable and a good entry point into the market, despite the current economic climate. Edmonton is likely to experience a modest price increase of 1.5 per cent for the remainder of the year. In both Vancouver, BC and Edmonton, AB, demand for luxury properties has remained stable, with interest rate hikes having a minimal impact on this segment of the market. This is expected to continue into the fall months. Low inventory remains a pressing concern in Kelowna, BC, Victoria, BC, Vancouver, BC and Calgary, AB, and is expected to place upward pressure on home prices in 2023 and beyond. In contrast, recent commercial and industrial developments have eased inventory concerns in Winnipeg, MB for the time being. 

Ontario

Much like other provinces across the country, Ontario has not been immune to the impacts of rising interest rates. Many markets including Oakville, Windsor, Barrie, Durham, Kingston and Kitchener-Waterloo, anticipate – and in some cases already experiencing – a reduction in the number of units sold over the coming months. Apart from Oakville and Muskoka, average residential sale prices in Ontario are likely to remain steady or decrease between two to 10 per cent in the fall months.

Similar to Western Canada, the luxury market has remained resilient and in-demand among buyers in Oakville, despite rising interest rates and a looming recession – a contributing factor to the modest two-per-cent average residential sale price increase expected in Oakville this fall. Muskoka continues to attract homebuyers to the area, while simultaneously, many sellers are eager to sell before year-end. Given a steady stream of demand, Muskoka is expected to experience a modest five-per-cent increase in average residential sale price this fall. In Peterborough, interest rate hikes and the subsequent effects on the stress test have eroded affordability in the area, which is the main factor contributing to the seven-per-cent decrease in average residential sale price expected in the coming months. The return of conditional offers has been a prevalent trend across the province, including in Kingston, Kitchener-Waterloo, Muskoka and Peterborough. Echoing many regions across Canada, Durham, London, Sudbury, Ottawa, the Lakelands and GTA-Toronto are expected to regain balance in 2023, albeit with low inventory continuing to place upward pressure on prices. As one of the more affordable markets in Ontario, Thunder Bay is unlikely to experience any significant fluctuations in average residential sale prices this fall.

Atlantic Canada*

Similar to Western Canada and Ontario, economic factors such as rising interest rates and a possible recession have contributed to decelerated home-buying activity in the region. Charlottetown, PEI experienced immediate impacts as interest rates rose, with the number of sale transactions reduced by almost half on a month-over-month basis, particularly among properties in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 price range. Despite these circumstances, Atlantic Canada continues to attract out-of-province buyers due to its affordability, relative to the rest of Canada. The majority of Atlantic Canada housing markets analyzed are expected to experience modest price increases through the end of 2022, including Halifax, NS (+1.5%), Moncton, NB (+6%) and St. John's, NL (+7%). The outlier is Charlottetown, PEI, where average residential sale price is expected to decline by two per cent in the fall months.

Housing affordability continues to attract buyers in Moncton, who have been able to leverage the recent decrease in demand to negotiate with sellers and include conditions on purchases. Meanwhile in St. John's, NL, economic pressure from rising interest rates has resulted in extended rent periods by would-be buyers, despite this region anticipating an increase of seven per cent in average residential sale prices. The trend has been further exacerbated by low housing inventory. However, recent "green" government announcements and initiatives are anticipated to boost the local economy and in tandem, the housing market. In spite of concerns over supply falling short of demand, Charlottetown, PEI is expected to regain more balance in 2023. However, inflation coupled with the increased cost of living will likely result in a moderate two-per-cent decline in average residential sale prices through the end of 2022.

About the 2022 RE/MAX Canada Fall Outlook Report

The 2022 RE/MAX Canada Fall Outlook Report includes data and insights from RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments. Average sale price is reflective of all property types in a region and varies depending on the region. When referring to "fall" this includes the months of September 2022-December 2022. *Insights/figures in Atlantic Canada were gathered prior to Hurricane Fiona. Regional summaries with additional broker insights can be found at RE/MAX.ca.

About Leger
Leger is the largest Canadian-owned full-service market research firm. An online survey of 1,522 Canadians was completed between September 16 and 18, 2022, using Leger's online panel. Leger's online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate of 90 per cent. A probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

About the RE/MAX Network
As one of the leading global real estate franchisors, RE/MAX, LLC is a subsidiary of RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) with more than 140,000 agents in almost 9,000 offices with a presence in more than 110 countries and territories. RE/MAX Canada refers to RE/MAX of Western Canada (1998), LLC and RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada, Inc., and RE/MAX Promotions, Inc., each of which are affiliates of RE/MAX, LLC. Nobody in the world sells more real estate than RE/MAX, as measured by residential transaction sides.

RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with an innovative, entrepreneurial culture affording its agents and franchisees the flexibility to operate their businesses with great independence. RE/MAX agents have lived, worked and served in their local communities for decades, raising millions of dollars every year for Children's Miracle Network Hospitals® and other charities. To learn more about RE/MAX, to search home listings or find an agent in your community, please visit remax.ca. For the latest news from RE/MAX Canada, please visit blog.remax.ca.

Forward looking statements
This report includes "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the "safe harbour" provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of words such as "believe," "intend," "expect," "estimate," "plan," "outlook," "project," and other similar words and expressions that predict or indicate future events or trends that are not statements of historical matters. These forward-looking statements include statements regarding housing market conditions and the Company's results of operations, performance and growth. Forward-looking statements should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results. Forward-looking statements are based on information available at the time those statements are made and/or management's good faith belief as of that time with respect to future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in or suggested by the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include (1) the global COVID-19 pandemic, which has impacted the Company and continues to pose significant and widespread risks to the Company's business, the Company's ability to successfully close the anticipated reacquisition and to integrate the reacquired regions into its business, (3) changes in the real estate market or interest rates and availability of financing, (4) changes in business and economic activity in general, (5) the Company's ability to attract and retain quality franchisees, (6) the Company's franchisees' ability to recruit and retain real estate agents and mortgage loan originators, (7) changes in laws and regulations, (8) the Company's ability to enhance, market, and protect the RE/MAX and Motto Mortgage brands, (9) the Company's ability to implement its technology initiatives, and (10) fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, and those risks and uncertainties described in the sections entitled "Risk Factors" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in the most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") and similar disclosures in subsequent periodic and current reports filed with the SEC, which are available on the investor relations page of the Company's website at www.remax.com and on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. Except as required by law, the Company does not intend, and undertakes no duty, to update this information to reflect future events or circumstances.

 

SOURCE RE/MAX Canada

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Airline, travel companies face Chapter 11 bankruptcy, default risk

New data from Creditsafe shows that three big-name brands face significant cash issues.

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It's actually fairly rare that a company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy without throwing off signs that it's in deep financial trouble. Observant customers sometimes see the signs.

You might notice lower staffing levels or poor inventory in a retail setting. Restaurants facing financial troubles might drop the quality of their ingredients, cut portion sizes, or find other ways to cut corners.

Related: Fast-food chain closes restaurants after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

It's generally impossible to cut your way to a good financial position unless you were making huge mistakes in the first place. A company might find some savings by examining its operations and focuing on waste in areas customers don't see, but giving people less almost never works.

In many businesses, especially when companies are publicly traded, signs of upcoming financial trouble are obvious. 

Public companies have to report their financial results and when there's more money going out than coming in, and cash balances get low, observant analysts can see a company likely to default on its bills that may be headed for bankruptcy well before it happens.

CreditSafe Head of Brand Ragini Bhalla recently shared her company's Financial & Bankruptcy Outlook: Transportation Report and some comments on it with TheStreet. 

The report shows that three big-name companies in the travel/transportation space are facing significant financial risk, which is reflected in their stock prices. Bhalla gave some color as to why companies in those markets are struggling.

Air travel has bounced back from the covid pandemic.

Image source: Shutterstock

The transportation industry faces a crisis  

Bhalla shared her thoughts on what Creditsafe found.

"We are reflecting on the current challenges faced by transportation companies and the total industry outlook. During the pandemic, M&A activity in the industry soared, as transportation players and investors made deals to extend capabilities and acquire high-performing assets. To that end, deal values soared from $51 billion in 2020 to more than $150 billion in 2021, before it dipped to $95 billion in 2022," she said in an email to TheStreet.

Bhalla said she sees a different pattern in 2024.

"While M&A activity in the transportation industry cooled down in 2023, industry insiders are projecting that 2024 will be the year of consolidation. If that’s the case, then it will be more important than ever for both sides (sellers and buyers) to do their due diligence," she wrote.

Not every company that would benefit from being acquired will survive the M&A scrutiny.

"This should include various elements, such as running business credit checks on potential acquisitions to make sure they would be a good investment and aren’t in dire financial straits. It should also include running comprehensive compliance checks to make sure potential acquisitions aren’t violating sanctions, haven’t been convicted of regulatory violations, and aren’t involved in unethical practices like bribery, corruption, fraud, and the use of child/forced labor," she added.

One airline, two rental cars are at risk

Spirit Airlines  (SAVE) has been on unofficial bankruptcy watch since the company's merger with JetBlue  (JBLU)  fell apart. There are real questions as to whether the super-low-cost airline model works, and Creditsafe sees a real risk of the airline ending up filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

"Earlier this year, Spirit Airlines said it was looking to refinance its debt and hopes to refinance $1.1 billion of debt due in 2025," according to Creditsafe. "To make matters worse, the airline doesn’t have a stable track record of paying bills on time."

Not paying bills on time is often a sign that a company is running out of cash.

"Late payments increased over several months in 2023. For example, the number of late payments (1-30 days) rose from 7.00% in September 2023 to 30.87% in October 2023. A similar pattern occurred soon after when the number of late payments (1-30 days) rose from 6.37% in November 2023 to 30.54% in December 2023 and then again to 51.08% in January 2024," Creditsafe data showed.

Investors are shying from the stock. Shares were at $4.29 down 73.8% on the year as of Friday.

Two rental car companies, Avis Budget Group  (CAR) and Hertz (HTZ) are facing similar woes.

"Avis Budget Group's long-term debt has consistently increased for the last three years, and how late the company paid its bills spiked drastically from 8 days late in March to 31 days in April and remained high until September 2023," Creditsafe shared.

Hertz has been following a similar path.

"The company’s number of delinquent payments (91+ days) increased consistently during the second half of 2023. For instance, the number of delinquent payments (91+ days) rose from 4.64% in August to 6.90% in September, then rose again to 10.73% in October 2023, indicating it is having trouble paying its bills," according to Creditsafe.

Avis Budget closed Friday at $107.70 and are down 39.2% this year. Hertz finished Friday at $7.58, down 25.7% on the year.

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AI vs. elections: 4 essential reads about the threat of high-tech deception in politics

Using disinformation to sway elections is nothing new. Powerful new AI tools, however, threaten to give the deceptions unprecedented reach.

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Like it or not, AI is already playing a role in the 2024 presidential election. kirstypargeter/iStock via Getty Images

It’s official. Joe Biden and Donald Trump have secured the necessary delegates to be their parties’ nominees for president in the 2024 election. Barring unforeseen events, the two will be formally nominated at the party conventions this summer and face off at the ballot box on Nov. 5.

It’s a safe bet that, as in recent elections, this one will play out largely online and feature a potent blend of news and disinformation delivered over social media. New this year are powerful generative artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT and Sora that make it easier to “flood the zone” with propaganda and disinformation and produce convincing deepfakes: words coming from the mouths of politicians that they did not actually say and events replaying before our eyes that did not actually happen.

The result is an increased likelihood of voters being deceived and, perhaps as worrisome, a growing sense that you can’t trust anything you see online. Trump is already taking advantage of the so-called liar’s dividend, the opportunity to discount your actual words and deeds as deepfakes. Trump implied on his Truth Social platform on March 12, 2024, that real videos of him shown by Democratic House members were produced or altered using artificial intelligence.

The Conversation has been covering the latest developments in artificial intelligence that have the potential to undermine democracy. The following is a roundup of some of those articles from our archive.

1. Fake events

The ability to use AI to make convincing fakes is particularly troublesome for producing false evidence of events that never happened. Rochester Institute of Technology computer security researcher Christopher Schwartz has dubbed these situation deepfakes.

“The basic idea and technology of a situation deepfake are the same as with any other deepfake, but with a bolder ambition: to manipulate a real event or invent one from thin air,” he wrote.

Situation deepfakes could be used to boost or undermine a candidate or suppress voter turnout. If you encounter reports on social media of events that are surprising or extraordinary, try to learn more about them from reliable sources, such as fact-checked news reports, peer-reviewed academic articles or interviews with credentialed experts, Schwartz said. Also, recognize that deepfakes can take advantage of what you are inclined to believe.


Read more: Events that never happened could influence the 2024 presidential election – a cybersecurity researcher explains situation deepfakes


How AI puts disinformation on steroids.

2. Russia, China and Iran take aim

From the question of what AI-generated disinformation can do follows the question of who has been wielding it. Today’s AI tools put the capacity to produce disinformation in reach for most people, but of particular concern are nations that are adversaries of the United States and other democracies. In particular, Russia, China and Iran have extensive experience with disinformation campaigns and technology.

“There’s a lot more to running a disinformation campaign than generating content,” wrote security expert and Harvard Kennedy School lecturer Bruce Schneier. “The hard part is distribution. A propagandist needs a series of fake accounts on which to post, and others to boost it into the mainstream where it can go viral.”

Russia and China have a history of testing disinformation campaigns on smaller countries, according to Schneier. “Countering new disinformation campaigns requires being able to recognize them, and recognizing them requires looking for and cataloging them now,” he wrote.


Read more: AI disinformation is a threat to elections − learning to spot Russian, Chinese and Iranian meddling in other countries can help the US prepare for 2024


3. Healthy skepticism

But it doesn’t require the resources of shadowy intelligence services in powerful nations to make headlines, as the New Hampshire fake Biden robocall produced and disseminated by two individuals and aimed at dissuading some voters illustrates. That episode prompted the Federal Communications Commission to ban robocalls that use voices generated by artificial intelligence.

AI-powered disinformation campaigns are difficult to counter because they can be delivered over different channels, including robocalls, social media, email, text message and websites, which complicates the digital forensics of tracking down the sources of the disinformation, wrote Joan Donovan, a media and disinformation scholar at Boston University.

“In many ways, AI-enhanced disinformation such as the New Hampshire robocall poses the same problems as every other form of disinformation,” Donovan wrote. “People who use AI to disrupt elections are likely to do what they can to hide their tracks, which is why it’s necessary for the public to remain skeptical about claims that do not come from verified sources, such as local TV news or social media accounts of reputable news organizations.”


Read more: FCC bans robocalls using deepfake voice clones − but AI-generated disinformation still looms over elections


How to spot AI-generated images.

4. A new kind of political machine

AI-powered disinformation campaigns are also difficult to counter because they can include bots – automated social media accounts that pose as real people – and can include online interactions tailored to individuals, potentially over the course of an election and potentially with millions of people.

Harvard political scientist Archon Fung and legal scholar Lawrence Lessig described these capabilities and laid out a hypothetical scenario of national political campaigns wielding these powerful tools.

Attempts to block these machines could run afoul of the free speech protections of the First Amendment, according to Fung and Lessig. “One constitutionally safer, if smaller, step, already adopted in part by European internet regulators and in California, is to prohibit bots from passing themselves off as people,” they wrote. “For example, regulation might require that campaign messages come with disclaimers when the content they contain is generated by machines rather than humans.”


Read more: How AI could take over elections – and undermine democracy


This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.


This article is part of Disinformation 2024: a series examining the science, technology and politics of deception in elections.

You may also be interested in:

Disinformation is rampant on social media – a social psychologist explains the tactics used against you

Misinformation, disinformation and hoaxes: What’s the difference?

Disinformation campaigns are murky blends of truth, lies and sincere beliefs – lessons from the pandemic


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Free school meals for all may reduce childhood obesity, while easing financial and logistical burdens for families and schools

Since nutrition standards were strengthened in 2010, eating at school provides many students better diet quality compared with other major U.S. food s…

School meal waivers that started with the COVID-19 pandemic stopped with the end of the public health emergency. Jonathan Wiggs/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

School meals are critical to child health. Research has shown that school meals can be more nutritious than meals from other sources, such as meals brought from home.

A recent study that one of us conducted found the quality of school meals has steadily improved, especially since the 2010 Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act strengthened nutrition standards for school meals. In fact, by 2017, another study found that school meals provided the best diet quality of any major U.S. food source.

Many American families became familiar with universal free school meals during the COVID-19 pandemic. To ease the financial and logistical burdens of the pandemic on families and schools, the U.S. Department of Agriculture issued waivers that allowed schools nationwide to provide free breakfast and lunch to all students. However, these waivers expired by the 2022-23 school year.

Since that time, there has been a substantial increase in schools participating in the Community Eligibility Provision, a federal policy that allows schools in high poverty areas to provide free breakfast and lunch to all attending students. The policy became available as an option for low-income schools nationwide in 2014 and was part of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act. By the 2022-23 school year, over 40,000 schools had adopted the Community Eligibility Provision, an increase of more than 20% over the prior year.

Many families felt stressed when a federal program providing free school meals during the pandemic came to an end.

We are public health researchers who study the health effects of nutrition-related policies, particularly those that alleviate poverty. Our newly published research found that the Community Eligibility Provision was associated with a net reduction in the prevalence of childhood obesity.

Improving the health of American children

President Harry Truman established the National School Lunch Program in 1946, with the stated goal of protecting the health and well-being of American children. The program established permanent federal funding for school lunches, and participating schools were required to provide free or reduced-price lunches to children from qualifying households. Eligibility is determined by income based on federal poverty levels, both of which are revised annually.

In 1966, the Child Nutrition Act piloted the School Breakfast Program, which provides free, reduced-price and full-price breakfasts to students. This program was later made permanent through an amendment in 1975.

The Community Eligibility Provision was piloted in several states beginning in 2011 and became an option for eligible schools nationwide beginning in 2014. It operates through the national school lunch and school breakfast programs and expands on these programs.

Gloved hand placing cheese slices on bun slices
Various federal and state programs have sought to make food more accessible to children. John Moore/Getty Images

The policy allows all students in a school to receive free breakfast and lunch, rather than determine eligibility by individual households. Entire schools or school districts are eligible for free lunches if at least 40% of their students are directly certified to receive free meals, meaning their household participated in a means-based safety net program, such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or the child is identified as runaway, homeless, in foster care or enrolled in Head Start. Some states also use Medicaid for direct certification.

The Community Eligibility Provision increases school meal participation by reducing the stigma associated with receiving free meals, eliminating the need to complete and process applications and extending access to students in households with incomes above the eligibility threshold for free meals. As of 2023, the eligibility threshold for free meals is 130% of the federal poverty level, which amounts to US$39,000 for a family of four.

Universal free meals and obesity

We analyzed whether providing universal free meals at school through the Community Eligibility Provision was associated with lower childhood obesity before the COVID-19 pandemic.

To do this, we measured changes in obesity prevalence from 2013 to 2019 among 3,531 low-income California schools. We used over 3.5 million body mass index measurements of students in fifth, seventh and ninth grade that were taken annually and aggregated at the school level. To ensure rigorous results, we accounted for differences between schools that adopted the policy and eligible schools that did not. We also followed the same schools over time, comparing obesity prevalence before and after the policy.

Child scooping food from salad bar onto a tray; other children lean against the wall
Free school meals may help reduce health disparities among marginalized and low-income children. Whitney Hayward/Portland Portland Press Herald via Getty Images

We found that schools participating in the Community Eligibility Provision had a 2.4% relative reduction in obesity prevalence compared with eligible schools that did not participate in the provision. Although our findings are modest, even small improvements in obesity levels are notable because effective strategies to reduce obesity at a population level remain elusive. Additionally, because obesity disproportionately affects racially and ethnically marginalized and low-income children, this policy could contribute to reducing health disparities.

The Community Eligibility Provision likely reduces obesity prevalence by substituting up to half of a child’s weekly diet with healthier options and simultaneously freeing up more disposable income for low-to-middle-income families. Families receiving free breakfast and lunch save approximately $4.70 per day per child, or $850 per year. For low-income families, particularly those with multiple school-age children, this could result in meaningful savings that families can use for other health-promoting goods or services.

Expanding access to school meals

Childhood obesity has been increasing over the past several decades. Obesity often continues into adulthood and is linked to a range of chronic health conditions and premature death.

Growing research is showing the benefits of universal free school meals for the health and well-being of children. Along with our study of California schools, other researchers have found an association between universal free school meals and reduced obesity in Chile, South Korea and England, as well as among New York City schools and school districts in New York state.

Studies have also linked the Community Eligibility Provision to improvements in academic performance and reductions in suspensions.

While our research observed a reduction in the prevalence of obesity among schools participating in the Community Eligibility Provision relative to schools that did not, obesity increased over time in both groups, with a greater increase among nonparticipating schools.

Universal free meals policies may slow the rise in childhood obesity rates, but they alone will not be sufficient to reverse these trends. Alongside universal free meals, identifying other population-level strategies to reduce obesity among children is necessary to address this public health issue.

As of 2023, several states have implemented their own universal free school meals policies. States such as California, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and New Mexico have pledged to cover the difference between school meal expenditures and federal reimbursements. As more states adopt their own universal free meals policies, understanding their effects on child health and well-being, as well as barriers and supports to successfully implementing these programs, will be critical.

Jessica Jones-Smith receives funding from the National Institutes of Health.

Anna Localio does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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