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RBC: 3 Oil Stocks to Buy for Long-Term Gains

RBC: 3 Oil Stocks to Buy for Long-Term Gains

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Billionaire Warren Buffett is best known for being one of the world’s greatest stock investors – but he is also a master of the bon mot, and some his best lines mark out rules that can lead to successful investing. Among his better-known sayings is, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” In other words, don’t follow the herd; look for the opportunity beneath appearances.

Right now, market traders are scared in the oil markets. Prices have collapsed, most notably in the American market, where last week, for the first time ever, the WTI benchmark dropped into negative numbers for the May futures contract. WTI is now trading at just $14, down 73% since the current bear market began, while Brent, the main global benchmark, is trading at $20, a loss of 66%. The steep drops in oil are mainly attributed to the sudden loss in demand due to the economic dislocations caused by the response to the COVID-19 epidemic.

So, there’s plenty going on in the energy industry to get investors good and frightened, but is it the right time to get greedy? A close look at the energy stocks’ situation shows the logic behind Buffett’s advice. The economic freeze, the general bear market, and now the collapse in crude oil prices have all put tremendous pressure on the oil industry, and driven share prices down far below their recent peaks – in some cased, by more than 50%. But in the words of BTIG strategist Julian Emanuel, “Though the times are extraordinary, such oil market distress in the past has signaled a prospective trough in equities, not a prolonged period of distress ahead.”

Some recent minor gains in indicates that the selling may be over, that the chumps have been sloughed off, and that this is the low point buyers have been looking for. RBC analyst Scott Hanold would agree, and he’s tagged three oil stocks as buying opportunities. We’ve pulled up the details from the TipRanks database. Each has a ‘Buy’ rating and over 20% upside potential. Let’s see what else they have to offer.

Diamondback Energy (FANG)

We’ll start with Diamondback Energy, one of the many small- to mid-cap oil producers that have taken advantage of the oil boom in Texas’ Permian Basin – and turned that basin into North America’s top oil producing region. Diamondback’s production totals more than 130,000 barrels of oil equivalent each day.

The company entered 2020 on sound footing. FANG reported $1.104 billion in top-line revenue and $1.93 in earnings per share for the Q4 2019, beating the forecasts on both metrics. In a positive move for investors, the company used the strong quarterly results to announce an increase in the regular dividend, to 37.5 cents per share quarterly. This was a bump of 49%, and put the annualized rate at $1.50 per share. The yield, at 4.2%, is more than double the average dividend yield found among S&P-listed stocks.

Backing his bullish stance on Diamondback Energy, RBC’s Scott Hanold says: “The company is one of few that have amassed a combination of quality assets, strong economic growth, minerals ownership, and a water business, which collectively help provide a competitive advantage. We believe FANG has one of the lowest cost structures in the basin and a corporate cash flow break-even (including dividend) that is among the best in the industry.”

Hanold rates Diamondback shares a Buy, which is supported by a $50 price target. Should the analyst's thesis play out, 38% upside could be in the cards. (To watch Hanold’s track record, click here)

All of that would make FANG an attractive buy, but the stock is now down nearly 50% from its pre-bear market value. With the low point of entry, the high-yield dividend, and the company’s solid base of productive assets, it’s no wonder that it holds a ‘Strong Buy’ consensus rating from the Wall Street analyst corps. Shares are selling for $36.34, and the average price target, at $55.65, is a bit more bullish than Hanold’s – it implies an upside of 53% for Diamondback. (See Diamondback stock analysis on TipRanks)

Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)

Next up is another Texas oil company, also working in the Permian Basin. The Permian is a rich oil region, and its output has helped turn the US in recent years from a net importer to a net exporter of crude oil products. Pioneer’s land holdings in the region have over 1 billion barrels worth of proven reserves, with a slim majority of 53% being crude oil. The rest is split between natural gas and natural gas liquids.

Pioneer saw increasing earnings from Q4 2018 through the end of last year – five consecutive quarters. The company finished 2019 with $2.36 EPS against the $2.12 forecast and beat its revenue estimates by 6%.

Steady production gains powered the gains in earnings. By Q4, Pioneer was putting out 364,000 barrels per day of oil equivalent. The increased output helped earnings, which in turn allow PXD to maintain its reliable dividend. The company has raised its semi-annual payment 4 times in the past 5 years, with the last increase taking effect this past March. The current dividend, at 55 cents every six months, gives a yield of 1.4%.

Hanold, is his review of Pioneer for RBC, says simply, “We expect PXD shares to outperform because of the good balance sheet and upside opportunity in its portfolio. The company has one of the largest and most contiguous acreage positions in the core of the Midland Basin (Permian).”

Hanold gives the stock a Buy rating, along with a $106 price target that suggests room for 29% upside growth.

Pioneer’s shares have a Strong Buy analyst consensus based on 17 Buy ratings, like FANG above, opposed to just 3 Holds. Wall Street’s collective view of PXD is slightly more conservative than Hanold’s, as shown by the $96.63 average price target, which implies an upside of 18% from the current share price of $77.45. (See PXD stock analysis on TipRanks)

Noble Energy, Inc. (NBL)

Last on our list is another company based in Texas, Noble Energy. Noble holds major stakes in the Permian Basin, as do the companies above, but its portfolio also includes important oil production lands in the Eagle Ford formation, as well, and large natural gas plays in Cyprus and Israel. While the Texas oil fields provide a majority of Noble’s current operations, the Israeli Mediterranean gas fields are estimated to hold as much as 43% of the company’s current reserves.

Opening the Mediterranean gas fields last year, and bringing them to full production, pushed Noble’s capex up in 2019. As a result, the company reported lower results in Q3 and Q4. The Q3 revenue, at $1.12 billion, was down 12% yoy, while Q4’s $1.17 billion was down 2% yoy. EPS for both quarters showed a net loss – in fact, the company posted net losses in each quarter of 2019, after net gains in 2018. The high expenditures and net losses forced the company to cut back its dividend, from 12 cents to 2 cents per quarter, effective for Q1 and to be paid this coming May.

With a capex up, commodity prices, customer demand, and quarterly dividends all down, NBL would seem to be a tough sell. But… the stock’s share price is down 56% since late February, and the company still produces a product that is essential to the economy. Demand will return.

Scott Hanold’s review of the stock sums up its situation succinctly: “NBL developed a strong, diverse portfolio of US shale and international asset base with a balance of commodity price exposure. We believe NBL is able to rely on its low-decline production base and strong balance sheet to navigate the low commodity price environment.”

Hanold’s price target here is $13, indicating confidence in a robust 62% upside potential, and clearly supporting his Buy rating.

With 17 analyst reviews on record, split into 11 Buys, 4 Holds, and 2 Sells, Noble Energy has a Moderate Buy consensus rating. The bulls, however, are mostly in line with Hanold’s view – they give the stock an average price target of $12.83, which implies a 60% upside potential in the next 12 months. (See Noble Energy stock analysis on TipRanks)

To find good ideas for oil stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

The post RBC: 3 Oil Stocks to Buy for Long-Term Gains appeared first on TipRanks Financial Blog.

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

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Government

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

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