The recently introduced Nigeria Artificial Intelligence Research Scheme is designed to facilitate the widespread utilization of AI to drive economic advancement.

The Nigerian Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Dr. Bosun Tijani, revealed on Friday, Oct.13, that the Federal Government intends to grant a sum of $6,444 (5 million naira) each to 45 artificial intelligence (AI) focused startups and researchers. This figure makes a total of $289,980 (225 million naira) being given out for the purpose of AI.

This information was disclosed by the minister in a post on X. The recently introduced Nigeria Artificial Intelligence Research Scheme is designed to facilitate the widespread utilization of Artificial Intelligence to drive economic advancement.

As outlined on the scheme's official website, the focal areas encompass Agriculture, Education and Workforce, Finance, Governance, Healthcare, Utility and Sustainability. To be eligible for the grant, applicants are required to form a consortium, comprising a startup or tech company, a researcher from a Nigerian university, or a foreign researcher, as stated by the Ministry.

To support the mainstreaming of the application of Artificial Intelligence for economic prosperity, we’ve launched the Nigeria Artificial Intelligence Research Scheme to fund 45 consortia of startups and researchers to allow them explore further opportunities to deepen their… pic.twitter.com/CaD5Vqs8Du

— Dr. 'Bosun Tijani (@bosuntijani) October 13, 2023

Applicants should present a research proposal in line with the Federal Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy's AI focus areas. Furthermore, they must provide a comprehensive project proposal that highlights the project's potential economic impact in Nigeria.

In addition, a proven track record of excellence in research or entrepreneurship is a requirement. Finally, applicants are expected to publish at least one peer-reviewed article within one year of grant receipt.

In August, the Nigerian government extended an invitation to scientists of Nigerian heritage, as well as globally renowned experts who have worked within the Nigerian market, to collaborate in the formulation of its National Artificial Intelligence Strategy.

Related: China sets stricter rules for training generative AI models

The application period commences on Oct.13, 2023, and concludes on Nov. 15, 2023. All submissions should be made through the specified online platform. The Ministry has indicated that a panel of AI specialists will assess the proposals. Those who make it to the shortlist will receive email notifications and be invited for interviews.

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Does it matter if spreads are dis-inverting because short yields are falling, or long yields are rising? MacKenzie and McCormick (Bloomberg) say yes. With long yields rising…

If it looked at first glance as though the shift in the yield curve was a solidly positive sign — one indicating that the economy is now at less risk of a recession than it was — that’s probably not the case. True, it shows traders aren’t expecting the Fed to shift into firefighting mode soon. Even so, it’s almost certain to further dampen the economy as it ripples through to mortgages, credit cards and business loans. That will tighten financial conditions further, which may be a welcome development to the Fed. The risk, though, is that it hits the brakes so hard that the economy stalls completely.

Does having a bull steepening prevent a recession? Figure 1, covering the Great Moderation, is somewhat conducive to that hypothesis, at least eyealling it. h

Figure 1: 10 year-3 month Treasury spread, % (blue, left scale), and 3 month change in 10yr-3mo spread, ppts (green, right scale). October observation for data through 10/13. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Red arrows when 3 month change is positive during period when dis-inversion is occurring. Source: Treasury via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.

The evidence in favor of the bear steepening hypothesis is stronger when evaluating the proposition formally. I estimate probit models for (i) spread only, (ii) spread and short rate, and (iii) spread, short rate and 3 month change in spread. The 3 month change in spread is statistically significant and adds to the pseudo-R².

(ii)   Pr(recession=1)_t+12 = 0.813 – 76.11spread_t + 9.80i_t^short

Pseudo-R² = 0.28, Nobs = 241, bold denotes significant at 5% msl.

(iii)  Pr(recession=1)_t+12 = 0.736 – 98.37spread_t + 11.99i_t^short + 98.28Δ₃spread_t

Pseudo-R² = 0.34, Nobs = 241, bold denotes significant at 5% msl.

The recession probabilities are shown below.

Figure 2: Recession probability 12 month ahead estimated over the 1986-2023M10 period for spread (blue), for spread and short rate (tan), and spread, short rate, and 3 month change in spread (green). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: NBER, and author’s calculations.

The bear-steepening specification implies 90% probability of recession in 2024M09, while it’s only 66.4% using the spread + short rate (peak probability for this specification is May 2024). Does this make me more pessimistic about avoiding a recession? Not really; the Ahmed-Chinn specification with the foreign term spread (but no steepening measure) was about 90.8% probability for September 2024.

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Does it matter if spreads are dis-inverting because short yields are falling, or long yields are rising? MacKenzie and McCormick (Bloomberg) say yes. With long yields rising…

If it looked at first glance as though the shift in the yield curve was a solidly positive sign — one indicating that the economy is now at less risk of a recession than it was — that’s probably not the case. True, it shows traders aren’t expecting the Fed to shift into firefighting mode soon. Even so, it’s almost certain to further dampen the economy as it ripples through to mortgages, credit cards and business loans. That will tighten financial conditions further, which may be a welcome development to the Fed. The risk, though, is that it hits the brakes so hard that the economy stalls completely.

Does having a bull steepening prevent a recession? Figure 1, covering the Great Moderation, is somewhat conducive to that hypothesis, at least eyealling it. h

Figure 1: 10 year-3 month Treasury spread, % (blue, left scale), and 3 month change in 10yr-3mo spread, ppts (green, right scale). October observation for data through 10/13. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Red arrows when 3 month change is positive during period when dis-inversion is occurring. Source: Treasury via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.

The evidence in favor of the bear steepening hypothesis is stronger when evaluating the proposition formally. I estimate probit models for (i) spread only, (ii) spread and short rate, and (iii) spread, short rate and 3 month change in spread. The 3 month change in spread is statistically significant and adds to the pseudo-R².

(ii)   Pr(recession=1)_t+12 = 0.813 – 76.11spread_t + 9.80i_t^short

Pseudo-R² = 0.28, Nobs = 241, bold denotes significant at 5% msl.

(iii)  Pr(recession=1)_t+12 = 0.736 – 98.37spread_t + 11.99i_t^short + 98.28Δ₃spread_t

Pseudo-R² = 0.34, Nobs = 241, bold denotes significant at 5% msl.

The recession probabilities are shown below.

Figure 2: Recession probability 12 month ahead estimated over the 1986-2023M10 period for spread (blue), for spread and short rate (tan), and spread, short rate, and 3 month change in spread (green). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: NBER, and author’s calculations.

The bear-steepening specification implies 90% probability of recession in 2024M09, while it’s only 66.4% using the spread + short rate (peak probability for this specification is May 2024). Does this make me more pessimistic about avoiding a recession? Not really; the Ahmed-Chinn specification with the foreign term spread (but no steepening measure) was about 90.8% probability for September 2024.

Read More