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Private-label RMBS market has cause to celebrate

As 2021 draws to a close, it’s clear that the private-label RMBS market has notched a year for the record books.
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As 2021 draws to a close, it’s clear that the private-label residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market has notched a year for the record books.

For the full year, the RMBS 2.0 market — defined as all post-financial-crisis prime, non-prime and credit-risk transfer (CRT) transactions — is projected to exceed $115 billion in issuance. That’s more than twice the volume recorded in 2020 and nearly double 2019’s $60 billion mark as well, according to a recent forecast from the Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA).

“Low mortgage rates, stable collateral performance and comparatively favorable spreads for much of the year showed a strong level of investor demand in RMBS paper, making 2021 the record post-global-financial-crisis issuance year,” the KBRA forecast states.

The major driver of private-label issuance this year has been the jumbo-loan market. RMBS offerings backed by jumbo loans are projected to reach the $60 billion level for 2021, according to estimates by Redwood Trust, a sponsor of multiple private-label offerings through its Sequoia securitization program.

The value of transactions backed by investment properties, including second homes, stood at nearly $23 billion as of the end of November, according to data from KBRA and digital-mortgage exchange MAXEX.

Securitizations in the non-QM market are projected to reach $25 billion in 2021, according to estimates from Dane Smith, president of Verus Mortgage Capital, and Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions.

Non-QM mortgages include loans that cannot command a government, or “agency,” stamp through Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Non-QM loans typically make use of alternative-income documentation because borrowers cannot rely on conventional payroll records or otherwise fall outside agency credit guidelines. The pool of non-QM borrowers includes real estate investors, property flippers, foreign nationals, business owners and the self-employed, as well as a smaller group of homebuyers facing credit challenges, such as past bankruptcies. 

On the CRT front, government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recorded a combined issuance through mid-December of nearly $18 billion, according to GSE transaction records. Through a CRT transaction, private investors participate with Fannie and Freddie in sharing a portion of the mortgage credit risk in the reference loan pools retained by the GSEs. 

Despite the outsized performance of the private-label market in 2021, compared to the prior post-crisis years, the so-called non-agency sector remains well below the level of market dominance it commanded in 2005 and 2006 — just prior to the housing-industry crash. At that time, it represented nearly 60% of RMBS issuance across agency and non-agency lines. 

“The non-agency share of mortgage securitizations increased gradually over the post-crisis years, from 1.83% in 2012 to 5% in 2019,” a recent Urban Institute report states. “In 2020, the non-agency share dropped to 2.44%, and as of September 2021, it stood at 3.79%.”

The Urban Institute report, produced by its Housing Finance Policy Center, notes that the steep decline in private-label activity in 2020 — as a share of the entire securitization market — was due, in part, to expanded agency refinancing activity as well as “less non-agency production due to dislocations caused by COVID-19.”

“The [private-label] market is recovering in 2021, although the share remains lower than 2019,” the report notes. “While the share is lower, as [GSE] securitization volume is high due to refi activity, this is the largest year of non-agency securitization since 2008.”

The 800-pound gorilla in the private-label space in 2021, as reported previously by HousingWire, is J.P. Morgan, the investment bank side of New York-based banking holding company JPMorgan Chase & Co.  

J.P. Morgan, via its private label conduit, J.P. Morgan Mortgage Trust, through mid-December had sponsored 15 offerings backed by jumbo loans with a total value of $16.4 billion and eight investment-property/second home-backed securitization deals valued at $3.9 billion, according to bond-rating agency reports. The combined value of those private-label transactions, $20.3 billion, represents nearly 18% of KBRA’s projected $115 billion in deal volume for the entire private-label market this year.

For J.P. Morgan’s jumbo-loan securitizations, bond-rating agency reports show that nearly 50% of the mortgages involved in those deals were originated in California.

“California has by far the highest prices in the country, with the median price of a home today in the state over $800,000,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of marketing for real-estate research firm RealtyTrac. “And, so that prices most borrowers out of getting a conventional loan, even with the higher [GSE loan-limit] allowance. 

“So, you’re going to have a higher percentage of jumbo loans in California … and California also has a high percentage of overall sales relative to other states.”

Adds Tom Piercy, managing director of Denver-based Incenter Mortgage Advisors: “The jumbo market has expanded as we’ve seen property values increase nationwide. … The appetite for jumbo loans has increased significantly.”

Rising interest rates, coupled with increased agency loan limits and the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s decision to suspend the cap on the purchase of mortgages backed by investment properties, however, are expected to slow the growth of the private-label market in the year ahead. 

The Federal Reserve is increasing the pace of its bond tapering in the months ahead, including reducing its purchases of mortgage-backed securities. It also is planning up to three bumps in the benchmark interest rate in the year ahead. That upward pressure on rates is expected to bend the arc upward on 30-year fixed rates as well, depressing the housing-refinance market.

“It is still expected that [jumbo] RMBS issuance will start to slow in the coming months as rates rise and supply wanes,” states MAXEX’s December market report. “…We continue to think that issuance [of RMBS backed by investment properties also] will subside in 2022 as originators sell many of these loans back to the agencies.” 

Still, the non-agency market is expected to continue to expand in the year ahead, even if it’s at a slower pace than in 2021, according to KBRA.

“Our fiscal year 2022 forecast is $132 billion across the prime, non-prime, and CRT segments, which, if realized, would make it a new record year for RMBS issuance post-GFC [global financial crisis] and an approximately 15% year-over-year increase from 2021,” KBRA’s market-projection report states.

Rising rates, rising GSE loan limits, the suspension of GSE caps on the purchase of investment property mortgages, as well as a housing market that is shifting toward purchase loans, are in combination, then, expected to act as a governor on the growth of securitization volume in the year ahead. At least that may be the case for the jumbo and agency-eligible investment-property segments of the private label market.

But that rising-rate environment is expected to be a boon for the non-QM sector. Verus’ Smith projects that non-QM private-label issuance will swell to over $40 billion in 2022, approaching a doubling of this year’s already robust transaction volume.

“We believe the conditions are ripe for considerable growth of the expanded non-agency market,” Smith said. “Considerable unmet demand for mortgage financing exists from self-employed borrowers and real estate investors. 

“… We are also seeing considerable renewed interest from mortgage lenders who are looking to diversify their product mix away from conventional refinances.” 

The post Private-label RMBS market has cause to celebrate appeared first on HousingWire.

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Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat"…

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Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat" to the health of the US population - a sharp decline from a high of 67% in July 2020.

(SARMDY/Shutterstock)

What's more, the Pew Research Center survey conducted from Feb. 7 to Feb. 11 showed that just 10% of Americans are concerned that they will  catch the disease and require hospitalization.

"This data represents a low ebb of public concern about the virus that reached its height in the summer and fall of 2020, when as many as two-thirds of Americans viewed COVID-19 as a major threat to public health," reads the report, which was published March 7.

According to the survey, half of the participants understand the significance of researchers and healthcare providers in understanding and treating long COVID - however 27% of participants consider this issue less important, while 22% of Americans are unaware of long COVID.

What's more, while Democrats were far more worried than Republicans in the past, that gap has narrowed significantly.

"In the pandemic’s first year, Democrats were routinely about 40 points more likely than Republicans to view the coronavirus as a major threat to the health of the U.S. population. This gap has waned as overall levels of concern have fallen," reads the report.

More via the Epoch Times;

The survey found that three in ten Democrats under 50 have received an updated COVID-19 vaccine, compared with 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older.

Moreover, 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older have received the updated COVID-19 vaccine, while only 24 percent of Republicans ages 65 and older have done so.

“This 42-point partisan gap is much wider now than at other points since the start of the outbreak. For instance, in August 2021, 93 percent of older Democrats and 78 percent of older Republicans said they had received all the shots needed to be fully vaccinated (a 15-point gap),” it noted.

COVID-19 No Longer an Emergency

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently issued its updated recommendations for the virus, which no longer require people to stay home for five days after testing positive for COVID-19.

The updated guidance recommends that people who contracted a respiratory virus stay home, and they can resume normal activities when their symptoms improve overall and their fever subsides for 24 hours without medication.

“We still must use the commonsense solutions we know work to protect ourselves and others from serious illness from respiratory viruses, this includes vaccination, treatment, and staying home when we get sick,” CDC director Dr. Mandy Cohen said in a statement.

The CDC said that while the virus remains a threat, it is now less likely to cause severe illness because of widespread immunity and improved tools to prevent and treat the disease.

Importantly, states and countries that have already adjusted recommended isolation times have not seen increased hospitalizations or deaths related to COVID-19,” it stated.

The federal government suspended its free at-home COVID-19 test program on March 8, according to a website set up by the government, following a decrease in COVID-19-related hospitalizations.

According to the CDC, hospitalization rates for COVID-19 and influenza diseases remain “elevated” but are decreasing in some parts of the United States.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 22:45

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Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says “I Would Support”

Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says "I Would Support"

Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump…

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Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run - Musk Says "I Would Support"

Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump into the race to become the next Senate GOP leader, and Elon Musk was quick to support the idea. Republicans must find a successor for periodically malfunctioning Mitch McConnell, who recently announced he'll step down in November, though intending to keep his Senate seat until his term ends in January 2027, when he'd be within weeks of turning 86. 

So far, the announced field consists of two quintessential establishment types: John Cornyn of Texas and John Thune of South Dakota. While John Barrasso's name had been thrown around as one of "The Three Johns" considered top contenders, the Wyoming senator on Tuesday said he'll instead seek the number two slot as party whip. 

Paul used X to tease his potential bid for the position which -- if the GOP takes back the upper chamber in November -- could graduate from Minority Leader to Majority Leader. He started by telling his 5.1 million followers he'd had lots of people asking him about his interest in running...

...then followed up with a poll in which he predictably annihilated Cornyn and Thune, taking a 96% share as of Friday night, with the other two below 2% each. 

Elon Musk was quick to back the idea of Paul as GOP leader, while daring Cornyn and Thune to follow Paul's lead by throwing their names out for consideration by the Twitter-verse X-verse. 

Paul has been a stalwart opponent of security-state mass surveillance, foreign interventionism -- to include shoveling billions of dollars into the proxy war in Ukraine -- and out-of-control spending in general. He demonstrated the latter passion on the Senate floor this week as he ridiculed the latest kick-the-can spending package:   

In February, Paul used Senate rules to force his colleagues into a grueling Super Bowl weekend of votes, as he worked to derail a $95 billion foreign aid bill. "I think we should stay here as long as it takes,” said Paul. “If it takes a week or a month, I’ll force them to stay here to discuss why they think the border of Ukraine is more important than the US border.”

Don't expect a Majority Leader Paul to ditch the filibuster -- he's been a hardy user of the legislative delay tactic. In 2013, he spoke for 13 hours to fight the nomination of John Brennan as CIA director. In 2015, he orated for 10-and-a-half-hours to oppose extension of the Patriot Act

Rand Paul amid his 10 1/2 hour filibuster in 2015

Among the general public, Paul is probably best known as Capitol Hill's chief tormentor of Dr. Anthony Fauci, who was director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease during the Covid-19 pandemic. Paul says the evidence indicates the virus emerged from China's Wuhan Institute of Virology. He's accused Fauci and other members of the US government public health apparatus of evading questions about their funding of the Chinese lab's "gain of function" research, which takes natural viruses and morphs them into something more dangerous. Paul has pointedly said that Fauci committed perjury in congressional hearings and that he belongs in jail "without question."   

Musk is neither the only nor the first noteworthy figure to back Paul for party leader. Just hours after McConnell announced his upcoming step-down from leadership, independent 2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr voiced his support: 

In a testament to the extent to which the establishment recoils at the libertarian-minded Paul, mainstream media outlets -- which have been quick to report on other developments in the majority leader race -- pretended not to notice that Paul had signaled his interest in the job. More than 24 hours after Paul's test-the-waters tweet-fest began, not a single major outlet had brought it to the attention of their audience. 

That may be his strongest endorsement yet. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 20:25

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The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While “Waiting” For Deporation, Asylum

The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While "Waiting" For Deporation, Asylum

Over the past several…

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The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While "Waiting" For Deporation, Asylum

Over the past several months we've pointed out that there has  been zero job creation for native-born workers since the summer of 2018...

... and that since Joe Biden was sworn into office, most of the post-pandemic job gains the administration continuously brags about have gone foreign-born (read immigrants, mostly illegal ones) workers.

And while the left might find this data almost as verboten as FBI crime statistics - as it directly supports the so-called "great replacement theory" we're not supposed to discuss - it also coincides with record numbers of illegal crossings into the United States under Biden.

In short, the Biden administration opened the floodgates, 10 million illegal immigrants poured into the country, and most of the post-pandemic "jobs recovery" went to foreign-born workers, of which illegal immigrants represent the largest chunk.

Asylum seekers from Venezuela await work permits on June 28, 2023 (via the Chicago Tribune)

'But Tyler, illegal immigrants can't possibly work in the United States whilst awaiting their asylum hearings,' one might hear from the peanut gallery. On the contrary: ever since Biden reversed a key aspect of Trump's labor policies, all illegal immigrants - even those awaiting deportation proceedings - have been given carte blanche to work while awaiting said proceedings for up to five years...

... something which even Elon Musk was shocked to learn.

Which leads us to another question: recall that the primary concern for the Biden admin for much of 2022 and 2023 was soaring prices, i.e., relentless inflation in general, and rising wages in particular, which in turn prompted even Goldman to admit two years ago that the diabolical wage-price spiral had been unleashed in the US (diabolical, because nothing absent a major economic shock, read recession or depression, can short-circuit it once it is in place).

Well, there is one other thing that can break the wage-price spiral loop: a flood of ultra-cheap illegal immigrant workers. But don't take our word for it: here is Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself during his February 60 Minutes interview:

PELLEY: Why was immigration important?

POWELL: Because, you know, immigrants come in, and they tend to work at a rate that is at or above that for non-immigrants. Immigrants who come to the country tend to be in the workforce at a slightly higher level than native Americans do. But that's largely because of the age difference. They tend to skew younger.

PELLEY: Why is immigration so important to the economy?

POWELL: Well, first of all, immigration policy is not the Fed's job. The immigration policy of the United States is really important and really much under discussion right now, and that's none of our business. We don't set immigration policy. We don't comment on it.

I will say, over time, though, the U.S. economy has benefited from immigration. And, frankly, just in the last, year a big part of the story of the labor market coming back into better balance is immigration returning to levels that were more typical of the pre-pandemic era.

PELLEY: The country needed the workers.

POWELL: It did. And so, that's what's been happening.

Translation: Immigrants work hard, and Americans are lazy. But much more importantly, since illegal immigrants will work for any pay, and since Biden's Department of Homeland Security, via its Citizenship and Immigration Services Agency, has made it so illegal immigrants can work in the US perfectly legally for up to 5 years (if not more), one can argue that the flood of illegals through the southern border has been the primary reason why inflation - or rather mostly wage inflation, that all too critical component of the wage-price spiral  - has moderated in in the past year, when the US labor market suddenly found itself flooded with millions of perfectly eligible workers, who just also happen to be illegal immigrants and thus have zero wage bargaining options.

None of this is to suggest that the relentless flood of immigrants into the US is not also driven by voting and census concerns - something Elon Musk has been pounding the table on in recent weeks, and has gone so far to call it "the biggest corruption of American democracy in the 21st century", but in retrospect, one can also argue that the only modest success the Biden admin has had in the past year - namely bringing inflation down from a torrid 9% annual rate to "only" 3% - has also been due to the millions of illegals he's imported into the country.

We would be remiss if we didn't also note that this so often carries catastrophic short-term consequences for the social fabric of the country (the Laken Riley fiasco being only the latest example), not to mention the far more dire long-term consequences for the future of the US - chief among them the trillions of dollars in debt the US will need to incur to pay for all those new illegal immigrants Democrat voters and low-paid workers. This is on top of the labor revolution that will kick in once AI leads to mass layoffs among high-paying, white-collar jobs, after which all those newly laid off native-born workers hoping to trade down to lower paying (if available) jobs will discover that hardened criminals from Honduras or Guatemala have already taken them, all thanks to Joe Biden.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 19:15

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