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Price Analysis 4/24: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LINK

Price Analysis 4/24: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LINK



Bitcoin is close to breaking out of its overhead resistance. This has resulted in strong price action in some altcoins, which suggests that the investor sentiment is bullish.

The total crypto market capitalization has bounced from just below $200 billion on April 22 to over $214 billion at press time. This is a positive sign as it shows that the sentiment is to buy the dips. If the market capitalization rises above $217 billion, it would open the gates for a rally to about $250 billion. A positive sign during the recent bullish move has been that along with Bitcoin several altcoins have also shown strength.

As Bitcoin halving nears, tweets regarding “halving “ have picked up and are currently ranked second among the topics discussed related to Bitcoin, according to crypto social sentiment analysis firm TheTIE.

Another survey conducted by the global peer-to-peer Bitcoin marketplace Paxful states that 50% of the respondents believe that a failure in the traditional finance system could result in a shift to Bitcoin. The chief operating officer and co-founder of Paxful Artur Scahabck said that many participants expect “mainstream adoption” in the next 6 to 10 years. However, the survey also had non-believers who said that the crypto bubble could burst in the same 6-10 years time frame.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Argentina is in talks with some of the world’s largest institutional investors to avoid a ninth sovereign debt default. The Argentine pesos has been one of the worst global currencies to hold as it has lost about 75% of its value against the US dollar since 2018. Interestingly, during the same period, the weekly volume of Bitcoin purchased with Argentine pesos has surged 1,028%. This shows that when investors lose faith in fiat currencies, they gravitate towards cryptocurrencies.

Global Macro Investor CEO Raoul Pal believes that the current crisis caused by the coronavirus outbreak could drive investors towards gold and Bitcoin. Pal expects Bitcoin to “go from a $200bn asset class to a $10tn asset class” in the next five years.


Bitcoin (BTC) surged above the symmetrical triangle and the horizontal resistance at $7,454.17 on April 23. This was a huge positive but the bulls have not been able to take advantage of this breakout.

BTC–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

This shows hesitation at higher levels. The bears will now attempt to drag the BTC/USD pair below $7,454.17. If successful, a retest of the breakout level from the symmetrical triangle at $7,220 is possible.

If the pair rebounds off this level, the bulls will again attempt to drive the price above the $7,454.17-$7,740.37 resistance zone. If successful, a rally to $8,000 and then to $9,000 is possible.

The 20-day exponential moving average is gradually sloping up and the relative strength index is in the positive territory, which suggests that the bulls have a slight advantage.

The first sign of weakness will be a break below the 20-day EMA and the bearish scenario will come into play below $6,471.71. Therefore, the stop loss on the long positions can be retained at $6,200.


Ether (ETH) continues to trade inside the ascending channel with a positive bias. The 20-day EMA ($169) is sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, which indicates that the bulls have the upper hand.

ETH–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

If the bulls can propel the ETH/USD pair above the ascending channel, the momentum is likely to pick up. Above the channel, a rally to $250 is possible. The pair remains bullish as long as it trades inside the top-half of the channel.

The first sign of weakness will be a break below the 20-day EMA and the trend will turn in favor of the bears on a break below the channel. Therefore, the stop-loss on the long positions can be trailed higher to $155.


The bulls pushed XRP above the downtrend line on April 23 but could not sustain the price above it. Currently, the bulls are again attempting to sustain the price above the downtrend line.

XRP–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

If successful, a move to $0.20570 is likely. The bears might again defend this level but a break above it can start an uptrend that can result in a rally to $0.25.

The gradually upsloping 20-day EMA ($0.187) and the RSI just above the midpoint suggests a marginal advantage to the bulls.

However, if the XRP/USD pair turns down from the current levels or from the overhead resistance at $0.20570 and breaks below $0.17372, the trend is likely to favor the bears. Therefore, the protective stop-loss on the long positions can be trailed higher to $0.170.


Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is facing stiff resistance at the overhead resistance of $250. The failure to break above this level will keep the altcoin range-bound between $200 and $250 for a few more days.

BCH–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

If the bulls can thrust the BCH/USD pair above $250, a move to $280.47 is possible. A breakout of this level will invalidate the bearish head and shoulders pattern, which could result in a rally to $350.

Conversely, a break below $200 will complete the bearish H&S pattern, which has a target objective of $119.53. The stop-loss on the long positions can be kept at $197.


Bitcoin SV (BSV) is close to the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle. A breakout of the triangle will be a positive sign that can result in a move to $227. The bears are again likely to mount a defense of this level.

BSV–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

However, if the bulls can push the BSV/USD pair above $227, a new uptrend is likely. The first target on the upside would be $268.842 and above it $319.424.

Conversely, if the pair turns down from the current levels and plummets below the support line of the triangle, it will signal weakness. Below $170, the pair can decline to $146.20 and then to $100. Therefore, the stops on the long positions can be kept at $165.


The bulls are attempting to push Litecoin (LTC) above the overhead resistance of $43.67. If successful, a move to $47.6551 is possible. The bears are likely to defend this level aggressively but if crossed, a new uptrend is likely to begin.

LTC–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

Above $47.6551, the LTC/USD pair can rally to $52.2767, which might act as minor resistance. However, if the bulls can break above this level, a rally to $63 is possible.

Conversely, if the bulls fail to sustain the price above $43.67, the consolidation is likely to extend for a few more days. A break below $35.8582 will open the gates for a further decline. Therefore, the long positions can be held with a stop at $35.


EOS is trading in the upper half of the $2.3314-$2.8319 range. The 20-day EMA ($2.56) is gradually sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, which suggests that bulls have a slight advantage.

EOS–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

If the bulls can drive the EOS/USD pair above $2.8319, the momentum is likely to pick up. The target objective for the breakout from the range is $3.3324. If the traders can push the price above this level, the uptrend can reach $3.8811.

However, if the bulls fail to break out and sustain the price above $2.8319, the pair might spend a few more days inside the range. Lower levels can be expected on a break below the support of the range at $2.3314. Therefore, the protective stops on the long positions can be kept at $2.20.


Binance Coin (BNB) has bounced off the 20-day EMA ($15) and has re-entered the rising wedge. However, the rebound lacks momentum, which shows hesitation among the bulls to buy at higher levels.

BNB–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

If the BNB/USD pair turns down from the current levels or from the resistance line of the wedge and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will signal an advantage to the bears. Below the 20-day EMA, the next support is at 13.65.

Conversely, if the bulls can drive the pair above the wedge, it will invalidate the bearish pattern. This could result in a rally to $21.50. For now, the stops on the long positions can be kept at $13.


Tezos (XTZ) picked up momentum after bouncing off the 20-day EMA on April 21. Today, the altcoin reached our first target objective of $2.75. The bears are likely to defend this level aggressively.

XTZ–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

This could result in a minor correction or a few days of consolidation. Therefore, the short-term traders can book partial profits if the bulls struggle to scale the XTZ/USD pair above the overhead resistance. The stops on the rest of the long positions can be trailed higher to breakeven.

With the 20-day EMA ($2.15) sloping up and the RSI in the overbought zone, the advantage is with the bulls. Above $2.7529, a rally to $3.2712 is possible. This bullish sentiment could take a beating if the bears sink and sustain the price below the recent swing low of $2.0618.


Failed breakouts are usually the first warning sign of waning demand at higher levels. Chainlink (LINK) climbed above the resistance at $3.83 on April 23 but the bulls could not sustain the breakout.

LINK–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

Currently, the bulls are again struggling to hold the price above $3.83. This shows selling at higher levels. However, the positive sign is that the LINK/USD pair has not given up much ground.

The 20-day EMA ($3.32) is sloping up and the RSI has been sustaining above the 60 levels, which suggests that bulls have the advantage.

If the pair can climb and sustain above $3.83, the uptrend is likely to resume. The first level to watch out for is $4.2023 and then $4.9762. The first sign of weakness would be a drop below the trendline.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

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“I Can’t Even Save”: Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

"I Can’t Even Save": Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

While Joe Biden insists that Americans are doing great…



"I Can't Even Save": Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

While Joe Biden insists that Americans are doing great - suggesting in his State of the Union Address last week that "our economy is the envy of the world," Americans are being absolutely crushed by inflation (which the Biden admin blames on 'shrinkflation' and 'corporate greed'), and of course - crippling debt.

The signs are obvious. Last week we noted that banks' charge-offs are accelerating, and are now above pre-pandemic levels.

...and leading this increase are credit card loans - with delinquencies that haven't been this high since Q3 2011.

On top of that, while credit cards and nonfarm, nonresidential commercial real estate loans drove the quarterly increase in the noncurrent rate, residential mortgages drove the quarterly increase in the share of loans 30-89 days past due.

And while Biden and crew can spin all they want, an average of polls from RealClear Politics shows that just 40% of people approve of Biden's handling of the economy.


On Friday, Bloomberg dug deeper into the effects of Biden's "envious" economy on Americans - specifically, how massive debt loads (credit cards and auto loans especially) are absolutely crushing people.

Two years after the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates to tame prices, delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans are the highest in more than a decade. For the first time on record, interest payments on those and other non-mortgage debts are as big a financial burden for US households as mortgage interest payments.

According to the report, this presents a difficult reality for millions of consumers who drive the US economy - "The era of high borrowing costs — however necessary to slow price increases — has a sting of its own that many families may feel for years to come, especially the ones that haven’t locked in cheap home loans."

The Fed, meanwhile, doesn't appear poised to cut rates until later this year.

According to a February paper from IMF and Harvard, the recent high cost of borrowing - something which isn't reflected in inflation figures, is at the heart of lackluster consumer sentiment despite inflation having moderated and a job market which has recovered (thanks to job gains almost entirely enjoyed by immigrants).

In short, the debt burden has made life under President Biden a constant struggle throughout America.

"I’m making the most money I've ever made, and I’m still living paycheck to paycheck," 40-year-old Denver resident Nikki Cimino told Bloomberg. Cimino is carrying a monthly mortgage of $1,650, and has $4,000 in credit card debt following a 2020 divorce.

Nikki CiminoPhotographer: Rachel Woolf/Bloomberg

"There's this wild disconnect between what people are experiencing and what economists are experiencing."

What's more, according to Wells Fargo, families have taken on debt at a comparatively fast rate - no doubt to sustain the same lifestyle as low rates and pandemic-era stimmies provided. In fact, it only took four years for households to set a record new debt level after paying down borrowings in 2021 when interest rates were near zero. 

Meanwhile, that increased debt load is exacerbated by credit card interest rates that have climbed to a record 22%, according to the Fed.

[P]art of the reason some Americans were able to take on a substantial load of non-mortgage debt is because they’d locked in home loans at ultra-low rates, leaving room on their balance sheets for other types of borrowing. The effective rate of interest on US mortgage debt was just 3.8% at the end of last year.

Yet the loans and interest payments can be a significant strain that shapes families’ spending choices. -Bloomberg

And of course, the highest-interest debt (credit cards) is hurting lower-income households the most, as tends to be the case.

The lowest earners also understandably had the biggest increase in credit card delinquencies.

"Many consumers are levered to the hilt — maxed out on debt and barely keeping their heads above water," Allan Schweitzer, a portfolio manager at credit-focused investment firm Beach Point Capital Management told Bloomberg. "They can dog paddle, if you will, but any uptick in unemployment or worsening of the economy could drive a pretty significant spike in defaults."

"We had more money when Trump was president," said Denise Nierzwicki, 69. She and her 72-year-old husband Paul have around $20,000 in debt spread across multiple cards - all of which have interest rates above 20%.

Denise and Paul Nierzwicki blame Biden for what they see as a gloomy economy and plan to vote for the Republican candidate in November.
Photographer: Jon Cherry/Bloomberg

During the pandemic, Denise lost her job and a business deal for a bar they owned in their hometown of Lexington, Kentucky. While they applied for Social Security to ease the pain, Denise is now working 50 hours a week at a restaurant. Despite this, they're barely scraping enough money together to service their debt.

The couple blames Biden for what they see as a gloomy economy and plans to vote for the Republican candidate in November. Denise routinely voted for Democrats up until about 2010, when she grew dissatisfied with Barack Obama’s economic stances, she said. Now, she supports Donald Trump because he lowered taxes and because of his policies on immigration. -Bloomberg

Meanwhile there's student loans - which are not able to be discharged in bankruptcy.

"I can't even save, I don't have a savings account," said 29-year-old in Columbus, Ohio resident Brittany Walling - who has around $80,000 in federal student loans, $20,000 in private debt from her undergraduate and graduate degrees, and $6,000 in credit card debt she accumulated over a six-month stretch in 2022 while she was unemployed.

"I just know that a lot of people are struggling, and things need to change," she told the outlet.

The only silver lining of note, according to Bloomberg, is that broad wage gains resulting in large paychecks has made it easier for people to throw money at credit card bills.

Yet, according to Wells Fargo economist Shannon Grein, "As rates rose in 2023, we avoided a slowdown due to spending that was very much tied to easy access to credit ... Now, credit has become harder to come by and more expensive."

According to Grein, the change has posed "a significant headwind to consumption."

Then there's the election

"Maybe the Fed is done hiking, but as long as rates stay on hold, you still have a passive tightening effect flowing down to the consumer and being exerted on the economy," she continued. "Those household dynamics are going to be a factor in the election this year."

Meanwhile, swing-state voters in a February Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll said they trust Trump more than Biden on interest rates and personal debt.


These 'headwinds' have M3 Partners' Moshin Meghji concerned.

"Any tightening there immediately hits the top line of companies," he said, noting that for heavily indebted companies that took on debt during years of easy borrowing, "there's no easy fix."

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 18:00

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Sylvester researchers, collaborators call for greater investment in bereavement care

MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater…



MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater risk for many adverse outcomes, including mental health challenges, decreased quality of life, health care neglect, cancer, heart disease, suicide, and death. Now, in a paper published in The Lancet Public Health, researchers sound a clarion call for greater investment, at both the community and institutional level, in establishing support for grief-related suffering.

Credit: Photo courtesy of Memorial Sloan Kettering Comprehensive Cancer Center

MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater risk for many adverse outcomes, including mental health challenges, decreased quality of life, health care neglect, cancer, heart disease, suicide, and death. Now, in a paper published in The Lancet Public Health, researchers sound a clarion call for greater investment, at both the community and institutional level, in establishing support for grief-related suffering.

The authors emphasized that increased mortality worldwide caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, suicide, drug overdose, homicide, armed conflict, and terrorism have accelerated the urgency for national- and global-level frameworks to strengthen the provision of sustainable and accessible bereavement care. Unfortunately, current national and global investment in bereavement support services is woefully inadequate to address this growing public health crisis, said researchers with Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Center at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine and collaborating organizations.  

They proposed a model for transitional care that involves firmly establishing bereavement support services within healthcare organizations to ensure continuity of family-centered care while bolstering community-based support through development of “compassionate communities” and a grief-informed workforce. The model highlights the responsibility of the health system to build bridges to the community that can help grievers feel held as they transition.   

The Center for the Advancement of Bereavement Care at Sylvester is advocating for precisely this model of transitional care. Wendy G. Lichtenthal, PhD, FT, FAPOS, who is Founding Director of the new Center and associate professor of public health sciences at the Miller School, noted, “We need a paradigm shift in how healthcare professionals, institutions, and systems view bereavement care. Sylvester is leading the way by investing in the establishment of this Center, which is the first to focus on bringing the transitional bereavement care model to life.”

What further distinguishes the Center is its roots in bereavement science, advancing care approaches that are both grounded in research and community-engaged.  

The authors focused on palliative care, which strives to provide a holistic approach to minimize suffering for seriously ill patients and their families, as one area where improvements are critically needed. They referenced groundbreaking reports of the Lancet Commissions on the value of global access to palliative care and pain relief that highlighted the “undeniable need for improved bereavement care delivery infrastructure.” One of those reports acknowledged that bereavement has been overlooked and called for reprioritizing social determinants of death, dying, and grief.

“Palliative care should culminate with bereavement care, both in theory and in practice,” explained Lichtenthal, who is the article’s corresponding author. “Yet, bereavement care often is under-resourced and beset with access inequities.”

Transitional bereavement care model

So, how do health systems and communities prioritize bereavement services to ensure that no bereaved individual goes without needed support? The transitional bereavement care model offers a roadmap.

“We must reposition bereavement care from an afterthought to a public health priority. Transitional bereavement care is necessary to bridge the gap in offerings between healthcare organizations and community-based bereavement services,” Lichtenthal said. “Our model calls for health systems to shore up the quality and availability of their offerings, but also recognizes that resources for bereavement care within a given healthcare institution are finite, emphasizing the need to help build communities’ capacity to support grievers.”

Key to the model, she added, is the bolstering of community-based support through development of “compassionate communities” and “upskilling” of professional services to assist those with more substantial bereavement-support needs.

The model contains these pillars:

  • Preventive bereavement care –healthcare teams engage in bereavement-conscious practices, and compassionate communities are mindful of the emotional and practical needs of dying patients’ families.
  • Ownership of bereavement care – institutions provide bereavement education for staff, risk screenings for families, outreach and counseling or grief support. Communities establish bereavement centers and “champions” to provide bereavement care at workplaces, schools, places of worship or care facilities.
  • Resource allocation for bereavement care – dedicated personnel offer universal outreach, and bereaved stakeholders provide input to identify community barriers and needed resources.
  • Upskilling of support providers – Bereavement education is integrated into training programs for health professionals, and institutions offer dedicated grief specialists. Communities have trained, accessible bereavement specialists who provide support and are educated in how to best support bereaved individuals, increasing their grief literacy.
  • Evidence-based care – bereavement care is evidence-based and features effective grief assessments, interventions, and training programs. Compassionate communities remain mindful of bereavement care needs.

Lichtenthal said the new Center will strive to materialize these pillars and aims to serve as a global model for other health organizations. She hopes the paper’s recommendations “will cultivate a bereavement-conscious and grief-informed workforce as well as grief-literate, compassionate communities and health systems that prioritize bereavement as a vital part of ethical healthcare.”

“This paper is calling for healthcare institutions to respond to their duty to care for the family beyond patients’ deaths. By investing in the creation of the Center for the Advancement of Bereavement Care, Sylvester is answering this call,” Lichtenthal said.

Follow @SylvesterCancer on X for the latest news on Sylvester’s research and care.

# # #

Article Title: Investing in bereavement care as a public health priority

DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00030-6

Authors: The complete list of authors is included in the paper.

Funding: The authors received funding from the National Cancer Institute (P30 CA240139 Nimer) and P30 CA008748 Vickers).

Disclosures: The authors declared no competing interests.

# # #

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Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says “Copper’s Time Is Now”

Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says "Copper’s Time Is Now"

After languishing for the past two years in a tight range despite recurring…



Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says "Copper's Time Is Now"

After languishing for the past two years in a tight range despite recurring speculation about declining global supply, copper has finally broken out, surging to the highest price in the past year, just shy of $9,000 a ton as supply cuts hit the market; At the same time the price of the world's "other" most important mined commodity has diverged, as iron ore has tumbled amid growing demand headwinds out of China's comatose housing sector where not even ghost cities are being built any more.

Copper surged almost 5% this week, ending a months-long spell of inertia, as investors focused on risks to supply at various global mines and smelters. As Bloomberg adds, traders also warmed to the idea that the worst of a global downturn is in the past, particularly for metals like copper that are increasingly used in electric vehicles and renewables.

Yet the commodity crash of recent years is hardly over, as signs of the headwinds in traditional industrial sectors are still all too obvious in the iron ore market, where futures fell below $100 a ton for the first time in seven months on Friday as investors bet that China’s years-long property crisis will run through 2024, keeping a lid on demand.

Indeed, while the mood surrounding copper has turned almost euphoric, sentiment on iron ore has soured since the conclusion of the latest National People’s Congress in Beijing, where the CCP set a 5% goal for economic growth, but offered few new measures that would boost infrastructure or other construction-intensive sectors.

As a result, the main steelmaking ingredient has shed more than 30% since early January as hopes of a meaningful revival in construction activity faded. Loss-making steel mills are buying less ore, and stockpiles are piling up at Chinese ports. The latest drop will embolden those who believe that the effects of President Xi Jinping’s property crackdown still have significant room to run, and that last year’s rally in iron ore may have been a false dawn.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, on Friday there were fresh signs that weakness in China’s industrial economy is hitting the copper market too, with stockpiles tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange surging to the highest level since the early days of the pandemic. The hope is that headwinds in traditional industrial areas will be offset by an ongoing surge in usage in electric vehicles and renewables.

And while industrial conditions in Europe and the US also look soft, there’s growing optimism about copper usage in India, where rising investment has helped fuel blowout growth rates of more than 8% — making it the fastest-growing major economy.

In any case, with the demand side of the equation still questionable, the main catalyst behind copper’s powerful rally is an unexpected tightening in global mine supplies, driven mainly by last year’s closure of a giant mine in Panama (discussed here), but there are also growing worries about output in Zambia, which is facing an El Niño-induced power crisis.

On Wednesday, copper prices jumped on huge volumes after smelters in China held a crisis meeting on how to cope with a sharp drop in processing fees following disruptions to supplies of mined ore. The group stopped short of coordinated production cuts, but pledged to re-arrange maintenance work, reduce runs and delay the startup of new projects. In the coming weeks investors will be watching Shanghai exchange inventories closely to gauge both the strength of demand and the extent of any capacity curtailments.

“The increase in SHFE stockpiles has been bigger than we’d anticipated, but we expect to see them coming down over the next few weeks,” Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets, said by phone. “If the pace of the inventory builds doesn’t start to slow, investors will start to question whether smelters are actually cutting and whether the impact of weak construction activity is starting to weigh more heavily on the market.”

* * *

Few have been as happy with the recent surge in copper prices as Goldman's commodity team, where copper has long been a preferred trade (even if it may have cost the former team head Jeff Currie his job due to his unbridled enthusiasm for copper in the past two years which saw many hedge fund clients suffer major losses).

As Goldman's Nicholas Snowdon writes in a note titled "Copper's time is now" (available to pro subscribers in the usual place)...

... there has been a "turn in the industrial cycle." Specifically according to the Goldman analyst, after a prolonged downturn, "incremental evidence now points to a bottoming out in the industrial cycle, with the global manufacturing PMI in expansion for the first time since September 2022." As a result, Goldman now expects copper to rise to $10,000/t by year-end and then $12,000/t by end of Q1-25.’

Here are the details:

Previous inflexions in global manufacturing cycles have been associated with subsequent sustained industrial metals upside, with copper and aluminium rising on average 25% and 9% over the next 12 months. Whilst seasonal surpluses have so far limited a tightening alignment at a micro level, we expect deficit inflexions to play out from quarter end, particularly for metals with severe supply binds. Supplemented by the influence of anticipated Fed easing ahead in a non-recessionary growth setting, another historically positive performance factor for metals, this should support further upside ahead with copper the headline act in this regard.

Goldman then turns to what it calls China's "green policy put":

Much of the recent focus on the “Two Sessions” event centred on the lack of significant broad stimulus, and in particular the limited property support. In our view it would be wrong – just as in 2022 and 2023 – to assume that this will result in weak onshore metals demand. Beijing’s emphasis on rapid growth in the metals intensive green economy, as an offset to property declines, continues to act as a policy put for green metals demand. After last year’s strong trends, evidence year-to-date is again supportive with aluminium and copper apparent demand rising 17% and 12% y/y respectively. Moreover, the potential for a ‘cash for clunkers’ initiative could provide meaningful right tail risk to that healthy demand base case. Yet there are also clear metal losers in this divergent policy setting, with ongoing pressure on property related steel demand generating recent sharp iron ore downside.

Meanwhile, Snowdon believes that the driver behind Goldman's long-running bullish view on copper - a global supply shock - continues:

Copper’s supply shock progresses. The metal with most significant upside potential is copper, in our view. The supply shock which began with aggressive concentrate destocking and then sharp mine supply downgrades last year, has now advanced to an increasing bind on metal production, as reflected in this week's China smelter supply rationing signal. With continued positive momentum in China's copper demand, a healthy refined import trend should generate a substantial ex-China refined deficit this year. With LME stocks having halved from Q4 peak, China’s imminent seasonal demand inflection should accelerate a path into extreme tightness by H2. Structural supply underinvestment, best reflected in peak mine supply we expect next year, implies that demand destruction will need to be the persistent solver on scarcity, an effect requiring substantially higher pricing than current, in our view. In this context, we maintain our view that the copper price will surge into next year (GSe 2025 $15,000/t average), expecting copper to rise to $10,000/t by year-end and then $12,000/t by end of Q1-25’

Another reason why Goldman is doubling down on its bullish copper outlook: gold.

The sharp rally in gold price since the beginning of March has ended the period of consolidation that had been present since late December. Whilst the initial catalyst for the break higher came from a (gold) supportive turn in US data and real rates, the move has been significantly amplified by short term systematic buying, which suggests less sticky upside. In this context, we expect gold to consolidate for now, with our economists near term view on rates and the dollar suggesting limited near-term catalysts for further upside momentum. Yet, a substantive retracement lower will also likely be limited by resilience in physical buying channels. Nonetheless, in the midterm we continue to hold a constructive view on gold underpinned by persistent strength in EM demand as well as eventual Fed easing, which should crucially reactivate the largely for now dormant ETF buying channel. In this context, we increase our average gold price forecast for 2024 from $2,090/toz to $2,180/toz, targeting a move to $2,300/toz by year-end.

Much more in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 14:25

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