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Price analysis 11/9: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LINK, BNB, LTC, DOT, ADA, BSV

Price analysis 11/9: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LINK, BNB, LTC, DOT, ADA, BSV

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Bitcoin price is recovering well from its 6% drop to $14,800, but top altcoins are slow to follow.

Professional traders are often perceived to be the smartest, as they weigh the risks before investing in an asset class. Opposite to that, most retail traders only keep an eye on the possible profits and disregard the risk before investing.

Therefore, the increase in the number of Bitcoin (BTC) addresses holding more than 100 Bitcoin to a seven-month high, at 16,271, could be considered as a bullish sign. Furthermore, the low search volume for the keyword “Bitcoin” suggests that the current rally lacks the frenzied retail buying seen during the previous bull market in 2017.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow model, has maintained his bullish stance on Bitcoin, as he expects the price to at least rally to $100,000 by December 2021. If that happens, Bitcoin would command a market capitalization of about $2 trillion.

While crypto analysts are voicing bullish forecasts for Bitcoin, noted economist and Bitcoin skeptic Nouriel Roubini remains bearish, as he anticipates central bank digital currencies to start a big revolution in about three years. Thereafter, “Not only you don’t need crypto, you don’t even need Venmo,” said Roubini in a recent interview.

In other news, U.S. equity markets surged higher on the positive news that Pfizer is recording success in its COVID-19 vaccine trials. As the news broke, gold and Bitcoin prices corrected sharply, but it appears that crypto investors are viewing the dips as buying opportunities.

Let’s take a look at the top crypto assets to see how they are performing today.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin (BTC) is in an uptrend but is currently facing stiff resistance near $16,000. The failure to rise above the overhead resistance could attract profit-booking from the short-term traders and shorting by the aggressive bears.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the BTC/USD pair breaks below $15,650, it could drop to the critical support at $14,000. The 20-day exponential moving average ($13,935) is placed just below this support; hence, the bulls are likely to defend this level aggressively.

A strong bounce off the 20-day EMA will indicate accumulation by the bulls at lower levels. The price could remain stuck between $14,000 and $16,000 for a few days before starting the next trending move.

If the bulls can push the price above $16,000, a rally to $17,200 and then to all-time highs is possible. Conversely, a break below the 20-day EMA could result in a fall to the 50-day simple moving average ($12,137).

ETH/USD

The bulls are struggling to push the price above the resistance line of the rising wedge pattern. Ether (ETH) formed an inside day candlestick pattern on Nov. 8 and is currently trading in a tight range. This suggests indecision among the bulls and the bears.

ETH/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the bears sink the price below $432, the possibility of a drop to the 20-day EMA ($409) increases. A break below the support line of the wedge will indicate an advantage to the bears.

However, the upsloping 20-day EMA and the relative strength index in the positive zone suggest an advantage to the bulls. If they can push the price above the wedge, the ETH/USD pair could rally to $488.134.

A breakout of this resistance could resume the uptrend with the next target at $520 and then $550.

XRP/USD

XRP attempted to break out of the range on Nov. 7 but the bears pushed the price right back in. The bulls are currently attempting to defend the moving averages. If they succeed, another attempt to push the price above $0.26 is likely.

XRP/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price sustains above $0.26 for a day, the XRP/USD pair could start a new uptrend with the first target objective at $0.30.

However, the flat moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. If the price slips below the moving averages, the pair could remain range-bound between $0.26 and $0.2295 for the next few days.

A break below the $0.2295 to $0.219712 support zone will tilt the advantage in favor of the bears.

BCH/USD

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) broke above $272 for the past two days but could not sustain the higher levels. The repeated price rejection shows that the bears are aggressively defending the $272–$280 resistance zone.

BCH/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the bears sink the price below the 20-day EMA ($257), the BCH/USD pair could drop to $242 and then to $231. Such a move will indicate the possibility of a range-bound action between $231 and $280 for a few days.

However, the upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive zone suggest a minor advantage to the bulls. If the bulls can push the price above the overhead resistance zone, a rally to $300 and then to $326.30 is possible.

LINK/USD

The bulls tried to propel Chainlink's LINK above the $13.28 resistance on Nov. 7 but failed. However, the positive thing is that the altcoin bounced off the 20-day EMA ($11.46) and the bulls are again trying to push the price above the overhead resistance.

LINK/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, it will complete a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that has a target objective of $19.2731. The 20-day EMA ($11.46) has started to turn up gradually, and the RSI is in the positive territory, which suggests a minor advantage to the bulls.

However, if the price again turns down from the overhead resistance, the bears will try to sink the LINK/USD pair below the moving averages. If they succeed, a drop to $9.7665 is possible.

BNB/USD

Binance Coin (BNB) has been stuck between $32 and $25.6652 for the past few days. The bulls attempted to push the price above the moving averages on Nov. 7, but they failed.

BNB/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($28) and the RSI in negative territory suggest that bears have the upper hand. If the price sustains below the moving averages, a drop to $25.6652 is possible.

A bounce off this support could extend the stay inside the range for a few more days, while a break below it could start a new downtrend.

This negative view will be invalidated if the BNB/USD pair turns up from the current levels and breaks above $30. Such a move could result in a rally to $32.

LTC/USD

Litecoin (LTC) once again turned down from the stiff overhead resistance of $64 on Nov. 7. Barring the breakout on Aug. 17, the price has turned down from this resistance on three occasions.

LTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The RSI is forming a bearish divergence, which suggests that the momentum may be weakening.

If the LTC/USD pair turns down from the current levels or the overhead resistance and plummets below the 20-day EMA ($56), it will increase the possibility of a drop to the 50-day SMA ($50).

On the other hand, if the pair rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will make one more attempt to push the price above $64. If they succeed, a rally to $68.9008 is possible.

DOT/USD

Polkadot's DOT is currently trading inside a small range that has resistance at $4.95 and support at $3.80. The price turned down from $4.8586 on Nov. 7, which shows that the bears are aggressively defending this level.

DOT/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

However, the bulls are trying to keep the price above the moving averages, and the RSI has also taken support at the 50 level. If the RSI can break out of the downtrend line, it will indicate an advantage to the bulls.

If buyers can push the price above $4.95, a rally to $5.5899 is likely. The bears may again defend this level aggressively, but if the bulls can thrust the price above it, a new uptrend could begin.

ADA/USD

Cardano's ADA turned down from the $0.1142241 resistance on Nov. 7, which shows that the bears are aggressively defending this level. However, the positive thing is that the bulls have not allowed the price to dip below the moving averages.

ADA/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The strong rebound off the moving averages on Nov. 8 shows that the sentiment is to buy the dips. The bulls will again attempt to push the price above the overhead resistance. If they can pull it off, the ADA/USD pair could rally to $0.128 and then to $0.1445.

On the contrary, if the price again turns down from $0.1142241, then the range-bound action may continue for a few more days. A break below the moving averages will signal weakness, and the bears will then try to sink the pair below $0.0893.

BSV/USD

Bitcoin SV (BSV) continues to trade inside the broad range of $146 to $181. The price has been oscillating above and below the moving averages for the past three days, which shows that traders are undecided about the next move.

BSV/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The flat moving averages and the RSI close to the halfway mark suggest a balance between supply and demand. If the price sustains below the moving averages, the bears will try to sink the BSV/USD pair to the critical support at $146.

A rebound off this level could extend the range-bound action for a few more days. The trend will shift in favor of the bulls if they can push the price above the overhead resistance at $181.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by exchange HitBTC.

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Analyst reviews Apple stock price target amid challenges

Here’s what could happen to Apple shares next.

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They said it was bound to happen.

It was Jan. 11, 2024 when software giant Microsoft  (MSFT)  briefly passed Apple  (AAPL)  as the most valuable company in the world.

Microsoft's stock closed 0.5% higher, giving it a market valuation of $2.859 trillion. 

It rose as much as 2% during the session and the company was briefly worth $2.903 trillion. Apple closed 0.3% lower, giving the company a market capitalization of $2.886 trillion. 

"It was inevitable that Microsoft would overtake Apple since Microsoft is growing faster and has more to benefit from the generative AI revolution," D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said at the time, according to Reuters.

The two tech titans have jostled for top spot over the years and Microsoft was ahead at last check, with a market cap of $3.085 trillion, compared with Apple's value of $2.684 trillion.

Analysts noted that Apple had been dealing with weakening demand, including for the iPhone, the company’s main source of revenue. 

Demand in China, a major market, has slumped as the country's economy makes a slow recovery from the pandemic and competition from Huawei.

Sales in China of Apple's iPhone fell by 24% in the first six weeks of 2024 compared with a year earlier, according to research firm Counterpoint, as the company contended with stiff competition from a resurgent Huawei "while getting squeezed in the middle on aggressive pricing from the likes of OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi," said senior Analyst Mengmeng Zhang.

“Although the iPhone 15 is a great device, it has no significant upgrades from the previous version, so consumers feel fine holding on to the older-generation iPhones for now," he said.

A man scrolling through Netflix on an Apple iPad Pro. Photo by Phil Barker/Future Publishing via Getty Images.

Future Publishing/Getty Images

Big plans for China

Counterpoint said that the first six weeks of 2023 saw abnormally high numbers with significant unit sales being deferred from December 2022 due to production issues.

Apple is planning to open its eighth store in Shanghai – and its 47th across China – on March 21.

Related: Tech News Now: OpenAI says Musk contract 'never existed', Xiaomi's EV, and more

The company also plans to expand its research centre in Shanghai to support all of its product lines and open a new lab in southern tech hub Shenzhen later this year, according to the South China Morning Post.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, Apple announced changes to comply with the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which went into effect last week, Reuters reported on March 12.

Beginning this spring, software developers operating in Europe will be able to distribute apps to EU customers directly from their own websites instead of through the App Store.

"To reflect the DMA’s changes, users in the EU can install apps from alternative app marketplaces in iOS 17.4 and later," Apple said on its website, referring to the software platform that runs iPhones and iPads. 

"Users will be able to download an alternative marketplace app from the marketplace developer’s website," the company said.

Apple has also said it will appeal a $2 billion EU antitrust fine for thwarting competition from Spotify  (SPOT)  and other music streaming rivals via restrictions on the App Store.

The company's shares have suffered amid all this upheaval, but some analysts still see good things in Apple's future.

Bank of America Securities confirmed its positive stance on Apple, maintaining a buy rating with a steady price target of $225, according to Investing.com

The firm's analysis highlighted Apple's pricing strategy evolution since the introduction of the first iPhone in 2007, with initial prices set at $499 for the 4GB model and $599 for the 8GB model.

BofA said that Apple has consistently launched new iPhone models, including the Pro/Pro Max versions, to target the premium market. 

Analyst says Apple selloff 'overdone'

Concurrently, prices for previous models are typically reduced by about $100 with each new release. 

This strategy, coupled with installment plans from Apple and carriers, has contributed to the iPhone's installed base reaching a record 1.2 billion in 2023, the firm said.

More Tech Stocks:

Apple has effectively shifted its sales mix toward higher-value units despite experiencing slower unit sales, BofA said.

This trend is expected to persist and could help mitigate potential unit sales weaknesses, particularly in China. 

BofA also noted Apple's dominance in the high-end market, maintaining a market share of over 90% in the $1,000 and above price band for the past three years.

The firm also cited the anticipation of a multi-year iPhone cycle propelled by next-generation AI technology, robust services growth, and the potential for margin expansion.

On Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said they believed that the sell-off in the iPhone maker’s shares may be “overdone.”

The firm said that investors' growing preference for AI-focused stocks like Nvidia  (NVDA)  has led to a reallocation of funds away from Apple. 

In addition, Evercore said concerns over weakening demand in China, where Apple may be losing market share in the smartphone segment, have affected investor sentiment.

And then ongoing regulatory issues continue to have an impact on investor confidence in the world's second-biggest company.

“We think the sell-off is rather overdone, while we suspect there is strong valuation support at current levels to down 10%, there are three distinct drivers that could unlock upside on the stock from here – a) Cap allocation, b) AI inferencing, and c) Risk-off/defensive shift," the firm said in a research note.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Major typhoid fever surveillance study in sub-Saharan Africa indicates need for the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines in endemic countries

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high…

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There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

Credit: IVI

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

 

The findings from this 4-year study, the Severe Typhoid in Africa (SETA) program, offers new typhoid fever burden estimates from six countries: Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, and Nigeria, with four countries recording more than 100 cases for every 100,000 person-years of observation, which is considered a high burden. The highest incidence of typhoid was found in DRC with 315 cases per 100,000 people while children between 2-14 years of age were shown to be at highest risk across all 25 study sites.

 

There are an estimated 12.5 to 16.3 million cases of typhoid every year with 140,000 deaths. However, with generic symptoms such as fever, fatigue, and abdominal pain, and the need for blood culture sampling to make a definitive diagnosis, it is difficult for governments to capture the true burden of typhoid in their countries.

 

“Our goal through SETA was to address these gaps in typhoid disease burden data,” said lead author Dr. Florian Marks, Deputy Director General of the International Vaccine Institute (IVI). “Our estimates indicate that introduction of TCV in endemic settings would go to lengths in protecting communities, especially school-aged children, against this potentially deadly—but preventable—disease.”

 

In addition to disease incidence, this study also showed that the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Salmonella Typhi, the bacteria that causes typhoid fever, has led to more reliance beyond the traditional first line of antibiotic treatment. If left untreated, severe cases of the disease can lead to intestinal perforation and even death. This suggests that prevention through vaccination may play a critical role in not only protecting against typhoid fever but reducing the spread of drug-resistant strains of the bacteria.

 

There are two TCVs prequalified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and available through Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. In February 2024, IVI and SK bioscience announced that a third TCV, SKYTyphoid™, also achieved WHO PQ, paving the way for public procurement and increasing the global supply.

 

Alongside the SETA disease burden study, IVI has been working with colleagues in three African countries to show the real-world impact of TCV vaccination. These studies include a cluster-randomized trial in Agogo, Ghana and two effectiveness studies following mass vaccination in Kisantu, DRC and Imerintsiatosika, Madagascar.

 

Dr. Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Associate Director General at IVI and Head of the Real-World Evidence Department, explains, “Through these vaccine effectiveness studies, we aim to show the full public health value of TCV in settings that are directly impacted by a high burden of typhoid fever.” He adds, “Our final objective of course is to eliminate typhoid or to at least reduce the burden to low incidence levels, and that’s what we are attempting in Fiji with an island-wide vaccination campaign.”

 

As more countries in typhoid endemic countries, namely in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, consider TCV in national immunization programs, these data will help inform evidence-based policy decisions around typhoid prevention and control.

 

###

 

About the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)
The International Vaccine Institute (IVI) is a non-profit international organization established in 1997 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Programme with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health.

IVI’s current portfolio includes vaccines at all stages of pre-clinical and clinical development for infectious diseases that disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, such as cholera, typhoid, chikungunya, shigella, salmonella, schistosomiasis, hepatitis E, HPV, COVID-19, and more. IVI developed the world’s first low-cost oral cholera vaccine, pre-qualified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and developed a new-generation typhoid conjugate vaccine that is recently pre-qualified by WHO.

IVI is headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea with a Europe Regional Office in Sweden, a Country Office in Austria, and Collaborating Centers in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. 39 countries and the WHO are members of IVI, and the governments of the Republic of Korea, Sweden, India, Finland, and Thailand provide state funding. For more information, please visit https://www.ivi.int.

 

CONTACT

Aerie Em, Global Communications & Advocacy Manager
+82 2 881 1386 | aerie.em@ivi.int


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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC’s…

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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever... And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC's Brian Sullivan took a horse dose of Red Pills when, about six months after our readers, he learned that the US is issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, which prompted him to rage tweet, (or rageX, not sure what the proper term is here) the following:

We’ve added 60% to national debt since 2018. Germany - a country with major economic woes - added ‘just’ 32%.   

Maybe it will never matter.   Maybe MMT is real.   Maybe we just cancel or inflate it out. Maybe career real estate borrowers or career politicians aren’t the answer.

I have no idea.  Only time will tell.   But it’s going to be fascinating to watch it play out.

He is right: it will be fascinating, and the latest budget deficit data simply confirmed that the day of reckoning will come very soon, certainly sooner than the two years that One River's Eric Peters predicted this weekend for the coming "US debt sustainability crisis."

According to the US Treasury, in February, the US collected $271 billion in various tax receipts, and spent $567 billion, more than double what it collected.

The two charts below show the divergence in US tax receipts which have flatlined (on a trailing 6M basis) since the covid pandemic in 2020 (with occasional stimmy-driven surges)...

... and spending which is about 50% higher compared to where it was in 2020.

The end result is that in February, the budget deficit rose to $296.3 billion, up 12.9% from a year prior, and the second highest February deficit on record.

And the punchline: on a cumulative basis, the budget deficit in fiscal 2024 which began on October 1, 2023 is now $828 billion, the second largest cumulative deficit through February on record, surpassed only by the peak covid year of 2021.

But wait there's more: because in a world where the US is spending more than twice what it is collecting, the endgame is clear: debt collapse, and while it won't be tomorrow, or the week after, it is coming... and it's also why the US is now selling $1 trillion in debt every 100 days just to keep operating (and absorbing all those millions of illegal immigrants who will keep voting democrat to preserve the socialist system of the US, so beloved by the Soros clan).

And it gets even worse, because we are now in the ponzi finance stage of the Minsky cycle, with total interest on the debt annualizing well above $1 trillion, and rising every day

... having already surpassed total US defense spending and soon to surpass total health spending and, finally all social security spending, the largest spending category of all, which means that US debt will now rise exponentially higher until the inevitable moment when the US dollar loses its reserve status and it all comes crashing down.

We conclude with another observation by CNBC's Brian Sullivan, who quotes an email by a DC strategist...

.. which lays out the proposed Biden budget as follows:

The budget deficit will growth another $16 TRILLION over next 10 years. Thats *with* the proposed massive tax hikes.

Without them the deficit will grow $19 trillion.

That's why you will hear the "deficit is being reduced by $3 trillion" over the decade.

No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math.

Of course, in the long run, neither can the US... and since neither party will ever cut the spending which everyone by now is so addicted to, the best anyone can do is start planning for the endgame.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/12/2024 - 18:40

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