Bitcoin and most major altcoins rebounded off their strong support levels, but the real challenge for the bulls is to sustain the momentum and clear the $60,000 resistance level.
The crypto markets and the global equity markets staged.
Bitcoin and most major altcoins rebounded off their strong support levels, but the real challenge for the bulls is to sustain the momentum and clear the $60,000 resistance level.
The crypto markets and the global equity markets staged a strong recovery on Nov. 29 in spite of the uncertainty from the newly discovered Omicron variant of COVID-19.
Long-term investors seem to view the recent dip as a prime buying opportunity. A recent filing by MicroStrategy showed that the firm purchased 7,002 Bitcoin (BTC) at an average price of $59,187. That boosted MicroStrategy’s total stash to 121,044 Bitcoin, bought at an average price of about $29,534 per coin.
However, analytics resource Material Scientist cited order book data to say that “a lot of Bitcoin liquidity has been taken” and warned that “stop hunters” may attempt to shake out the weak hands with a fall.
Is the current recovery a bull trap or is it the start of a sustained relief rally? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin’s relief rally is facing resistance at the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($58,712). This suggests that sentiment remains negative and bears are attempting to sell on rallies to the overhead resistance level.
Although the 20-day EMA continues to slope down, the RSI has risen above 46, suggesting that the bearish momentum could be weakening.
The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($60,805) to signal that the corrective phase may be over. The rally could then challenge the overhead resistance zone at $67,000 to $69,000.
On the other hand, if the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the bears will attempt to break the strong support at the 100-day SMA ($54,184). If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could slump to the psychologically critical level at $50,000.
The bulls are expected to defend this level aggressively because a break below it could result in panic selling. The pair could then slide to the next important support at $40,000.
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) rebounded off the neckline of the developing head and shoulders (H&S) pattern on Nov. 28, suggesting that bulls are defending the level with all their might. Sustained buying pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($4,316) on Nov. 29.
A break and close above the overhead resistance at $4,551 will indicate that the correction may be over. The ETH/USDT pair could then rally to the all-time high at $4,868. A break above this level will invalidate the bearish setup and open the doors for a possible rally to $5,796.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the 50-day SMA ($4,243), the bears will make one more attempt to sink the pair below the neckline. A close below this level will complete the bearish setup and start a down move.
The selling may accelerate below the 100-day SMA ($3,794). The pair could then start its journey toward the pattern target at $3,047.
BNB/USDT
The long tail on Binance Coin’s (BNB) Nov. 28 candlestick indicates that bulls are buying the dips below the 20-day EMA ($595). The bulls will now attempt to push the price to the overhead resistance zone at $669.30 to $691.80.
A break and close above $669.30 will complete an inverted H&S pattern. This bullish setup has a target objective at $828.60. The 20-day EMA is trying to turn up and the RSI is at 56, suggesting that bulls are attempting to gain the upper hand.
The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA. The bears will then try to sink and sustain the price below the 50-day SMA. Such a move could result in a decline to the strong support at $510.
SOL/USDT
Solana (SOL) once again dropped below the support line of the symmetrical triangle on Nov. 28 but the bears could not sustain the lower levels. This suggests aggressive buying on dips.
The SOL/USDT pair broke above the 50-day SMA ($204) on Nov. 29 and the bulls will now try to surmount the barrier at the 20-day EMA ($212). If they succeed, the pair could rally to the resistance line where the bears may pose a stiff challenge.
A break and close above the resistance line will suggest that the correction may be over. The pair could then rally to $240 and later to $259.90.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again attempt to sink and sustain the pair below the support line. The selling could accelerate on a break and close below the 100-day SMA ($172).
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) is in a downtrend. The price bounced off $1.41 on Nov. 28 but the bulls are struggling to sustain the higher levels.
The 20-day EMA ($1.78) continues to slope down and the RSI is near the oversold zone, indicating that bears are in control. If the price turns down from the current level, the bears will attempt to sink the ADA/USDT pair below $1.40.
If they succeed, the downtrend could resume with the next target objective at $1.20. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA to negate the bearish view. The pair could then rise to the strong resistance at $1.87.
XRP/USDT
The long tail on Ripple's (XRP) Nov. 28 candlestick shows aggressive buying near the strong support at $0.85. The price has reached the psychological level at $1, which may now act as a resistance.
If the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that the bears have flipped the $1 level into resistance. The XRP/USDT pair could then drop to $0.85. A break and close below this level will signal the start of a deeper correction to $0.70.
Alternatively, if the price rises above $1, the pair could rally to the 20-day EMA ($1.05). This level could again act as a stiff resistance but if bulls overcome this hurdle, the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($1.10).
DOT/USDT
Polkadot (DOT) bounced off $32.21 on Nov. 28, indicating that bulls are attempting to defend the strong support at $32. The recovery is facing selling at the 100-day SMA ($37.16) suggesting that bears are selling on relief rallies.
If the price turns down from the current level or the breakdown level at $38.70, the bears will attempt to extend the decline. A break and close below $32 could start the next leg of the down move that may reach $26.
The 20-day EMA ($40.41) continues to slope down and the RSI is in the negative zone, suggesting that bears have the upper hand. The bulls will have to push and sustain the DOT/USDT pair above the breakdown level at $38.70 to invalidate the bearish view.
Dogecoin (DOGE) bounced off the $0.19 support on Nov. 28, suggesting that bulls are accumulating at lower levels. The buyers pushed the price above the $0.21 overhead resistance on Nov. 29 but could not clear the hurdle at the 20-day EMA ($0.22).
The long wick on Nov. 29’s candlestick indicates that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. If the price sustains below $0.21, the bears will make one more attempt to pull the price below $0.19. If they do that, the DOGE/USDT pair could plummet to the support at $0.15.
Contrary to this assumption, if bulls push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, it will signal a change in the short-term trend. The pair could then rise to the 100-day SMA ($0.24) and pick up momentum if this resistance is crossed.
AVAX/USDT
Avalanche (AVAX) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($106) on Nov. 27 and again on Nov. 28 but the bulls are struggling to sustain the rebound. This indicates that demand dries up at higher levels.
The shallow rebound increases the possibility of a break below the 20-day EMA. If bears sink the price below the 20-day EMA and the $100 support zone, the selling could intensify. The AVAX/USDT pair could then drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $91.39.
Conversely, if the price rebounds off the support zone, the bulls will again attempt a recovery. If buyers propel the price above $120, the pair could rise to $130. A break and close above this resistance could open the doors for a retest of the all-time high at $147.
SHIB/USDT
SHIBA INU (SHIB) has been trading below $0.000040 for the past three days but the bears have not been able to capitalize on this weakness and pull the price to the 100-day SMA ($0.000027). This indicates a lack of sellers at lower levels.
If bulls drive and sustain the price above $0.000040, the SHIB/USDT pair could rise to the 20-day EMA ($0.000044). This level is again likely to act as a strong resistance. If the price turns down from this level, it will indicate that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.
The bears will then make one more attempt to sink the price below $0.000035 and resume the downtrend. This negative view will invalidate in the short term if bulls push and sustain the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.000046). The pair could then rally to $0.000052.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Greenback Surges after BOJ Hikes and Ends YCC and RBA Delivers a Dovish Hold
Overview: The US dollar is surging today against
most of the G10 currencies, and although the intraday momentum is stretched
ahead of start of the North…
Overview: The US dollar is surging today against
most of the G10 currencies, and although the intraday momentum is stretched
ahead of start of the North American session, there may be little incentive to
resist before the end of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. The Bank of Japan's rate
hike and the end of Yield Curve Control were not seen as the start of the
tightening cycle. The two-year JGB yield slipped to a two-week low and settled
below its 20-day moving average for the first time since mid-January. The Reserve
Bank of Australia delivered a dovish hold by dropping the reference the future
tightening. The yen (~-0.95%) and Australian dollar (~-0.85%) are the weakest
of the G10 currencies. Emerging market currencies are lower, led by the
Philippine peso (~-0.65%). The offshore yuan is weaker for the sixth
consecutive session.
Japanese, Australian, and New
Zealand equities bucked the regional trend to advance today. Stoxx 600 in
Europe is slightly lower, and if sustained, it would be the fourth consecutive
losing session. That would be the long losing streak since last October. US
index futures are nursing small losses. Ten-year JGB and Australian bond yield
fell almost three basis points today. European benchmark yields are mostly
slightly softer, though the periphery is lagging the core today. The US 10-year
yield is little changed near 4.32%. The high for the year is near 4.35%. The US
two-year yield did set a new high for the year yesterday near 4.75%. It is near
4.72% now. The greenback's strength is capping gold, which is trading inside
yesterday's range and straddling the $2150 area. May WTI soared to $82.50
yesterday as its recent rally was extended amid Ukrainian strikes on Russian
refiners. Diesel futures rose for the fourth consecutive session yesterday and
gasoline futures extend its rally for a sixth session. May WTI is consolidating
in a narrow range around $82.
Asia Pacific
The Japanese press reports
turned out to be fairly accurate: the Bank of Japan hiked its overnight target
rate to 0%-0.1%. It
scrapped the Yield Curve Control and confirmed it would stop buying ETFs. The
one surprise was that the central bank indicated it would continue to purchase
long-term bonds as needed. Governor Ueda, on one hand, said that the sustained
2% inflation target is not in hand, which sounded dovish. He also recognized
that if the positive trends for wages and prices lift inflation expectations,
and higher prices results, rate hikes may be necessary. The 10-year yield
softened by almost three basis points (to ~0.73%). The Nikkei rallied 1%, and
the yen was sold. The US dollar reached about JPY150.50.
As widely expected, the
Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash target rate at 4.35%, where it has been
since it was lifted by 25 bp last November. Economic activity has slowed, and price pressures are
moderating, but the RBA seems to be in no hurry to unwind the November hike.
Still, it dropped the reference to possible future hikes. The dovish hold sent
the Australian dollar to a nine-day low near $0.6510. The futures market is not
100% confident the RBA will do so before September. However, the odds of an
August cut have been marked up to around 97% from about 78% yesterday.
The dollar is rising against
the Japanese yen for the sixth consecutive session. It matches the longest advancing streak
since last August and lifted the greenback to two-week highs near JPY150.70.
The greenback approached JPY151 in mid-February through early March. The high
from 2022 and 2023 was closer to JPY152. The intraday momentum indicators are
stretched ahead of the North American open, but there may be little incentive
to resist before tomorrow's FOMC meeting. What is being seen as a dovish
hold by the RBA has sent the Australian dollar to nearly $0.6500. The
trendline off the mid-February and early March lows comes in today a little
below there. The low earlier this month was set slightly below $0.6480. The
intraday momentum indicators are stretched. Initial resistance now is seen int
he $0.6520-25 area. The greenback's gains, especially against the yen, have
weighed on the Chinese yuan. The dollar is challenged the CNY7.20 cap that
has not been violated this year. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at
CNY7.0985 (CNY7.0943 yesterday). The Bloomberg average was CNY7.2020 (CNY7.1993
yesterday). The dollar is rising against the offshore yuan for the sixth
consecutive session. It has reached CNH7.2130, its highest level in two weeks. The
high for the year was set on February 14 near CNH7.2335.
Europe
The focus will not shift to
Europe until Thursday. Three
central banks meet then, Norway's Norges Bank, the Swiss National Bank, and the
Bank of England. It is true the UK sees February CPI tomorrow. The
year-over-year rate is expected to fall toward 3.5% from 4.0% and the core rate
is seen falling to 4.6% from 5.1%. The UK's three-month annualized rate may
near 2% and the six-month annualized increase maybe around 1.6%. Still, the
market does not expect the BOE or the other west European central banks to
change policy. Still, we suspect the risk is for a SNB move to get ahead of the
ECB. The macro backdrop is conducive for a move with softer growth and low
inflation.
The March ZEW survey in
Germany showed a little improvement. The
assessment of the current situation remains poor. It edged up to -80.5 from -81.7. At its worst, during the pandemic, it fell to
-93.5 in May 2020. It had recovered and peaked at 21.6 in October 2021, and had
already begun weakening again before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was at
-10.2 in January 2022. The expectations component is a different story. It rose for the eighth consecutive month to 31.7, which is the highest reading since February 2022. The high last year was set in February at 28.1.
The euro met sellers in the
US morning yesterday as it pushed above $1.09. The selling knocked it down to new
session lows near $1.0865 It has been sold to $1.0835 today, around where the
(50%) retracement of the rally from the February 14 lows and the 200-day moving
average are found. A break of this area targets $1.08. Note that in the futures
market, the non-commercial (speculative) net long euro position has risen by
50% since the mid-February low through March 12 that is covered by the most
recent CFTC report. Meanwhile, the non-commercial net long sterling position
has risen every week this year but one, and at nearly 70.5k contracts (GBP62.5k
per contract or almost $5.6 bln position), it is the largest net long position
since 2007. Sterling extended its losses yesterday to nearly $1.2715, and has been sold to almost $1.2665 today, the lowest level since March 4. The
$1.2670 area corresponds to the (61.8%) retracement of the recovery off the
year's low set on February 14 near $1.2535. The intraday momentum indicators
are stretched, but there is little chart support ahead of $1.2600.
America
The focus, of course, is on
tomorrow's Fed meeting. No
one expects the Fed to do anything. It is more about what the Fed says, and
here, the dot plot is important. Keen interest is in the number of rates cuts
the median dot signals. Three cuts were signaled in December. While CPI and PPI
were slightly above market expectations, we do not think that they deviated
much from what the Fed anticipated. To us, a key consideration is Fed Chair
Powell's acknowledgement that officials did not need to see better data to
boost their confidence that inflation was headed back to target. It just needed
to see good data. Other macro forecasts may be tweaked. The 4.1% unemployment
rate anticipated for this year looks low. It was at 3.9% in February. The
median dot was for the headline and core PCE deflator to be at 2.4% at the end
of the year. They stood at 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively in January and are
expected to be unchanged when the February series is reported next week. The
median dot in December was for the economy to grow 1.4% this year. The median
forecast in Bloomberg's monthly survey was for 2.1% growth, which is the same
as the IMF's projection. On tap today, February housing starts and permits,
which are expected to tick up after weather-related weakness in January.
Canada reports February CPI
today. Given the base
effect, the 0.6% median forecast in Bloomberg's survey translates into a 3.1%
year-over-year rate. It was at 2.9% in January. The low print in 2023 was in
June at 2.8%. The underlying core measures are expected to be flat. The swaps
market has about a 50% chance of a cut in June. It nearly fully discounted on
March 5, the day before the Bank of Canada met. The summary of its
deliberations will be published tomorrow. The market has about 60 bp of cuts
discounted for this year, which is two quarter-point moves and around a 40%
chance of a third. A 100 bp of cuts was fully discounted as recently as
February 20.
The US dollar hovered around
little changed levels against the Canadian dollar yesterday. Neither rising US equities (risk-on) nor
an extension of oil's rally did much for the Canadian dollar. Resistance near
CAD1.3550 has been overcome today and it the greenback looks poised to re-test
the CAD1.36 area that capped the greenback in late February and earlier this
month. A band of resistance extends toward CAD1.3620-25. Yesterday,
the US dollar rose for the third consecutive session against the Mexican
peso, which matches the longest advance in six months. The nearly 0.9%
rally was the most since mid-January. Mexico was on holiday yesterday and the
thin markets may have exacerbated the move. The US dollar rose to a six-day
high of almost MXN16.87. This effectively recouped nearly half of the
greenback's losses this month. Today, the dollar is approaching the next
retracement (61.8%) and the 20-day moving average are near MXN16.93. Brazil was
not closed and fell for the third consecutive session. In fact, the dollar
poked above BRL5.03, its highest level since last November 1. Nearly all
emerging market currencies fell yesterday. The South African rand (~-0.95%) was
the weakest followed by the Mexican peso (~0.75%). Emerging market currencies
are no match for the dollar's surge today. The MSCI Emerging Market Currency
Index is off for the fifth consecutive session.
In a new book, experts in a variety of fields explore nocebo effects – how negative expectations concerning health can make a person sick. It is the first time a book has been written on this subject.
“I think it’s the idea that words really matter. It’s fascinating that how we communicate can affect the outcome. Communication in health care is perhaps more important than the patient recognises,” says Charlotte Blease, who is a researcher at the Department of Women’s and Children’s Health at Uppsala University.
Along with colleagues at Brown University in the United States and the University of Zurich in Switzerland she has written the book “The Nocebo Effect: When Words Make You Sick”. Nocebo is sometimes called the placebo’s evil twin. A placebo effect occurs when a patient thinks they feel better because of receiving medicine and part of that perception is due not to the drug but to positive expectations. The concept of the nocebo effect means that harmful things can happen because a person expects it – unconsciously or consciously. This is the first time the phenomenon has been addressed in a scholarly book. Researchers in medicine, history, culture, psychology and philosophy have examined it, each in their own particular area.
Credit: Catherine Blease
In a new book, experts in a variety of fields explore nocebo effects – how negative expectations concerning health can make a person sick. It is the first time a book has been written on this subject.
“I think it’s the idea that words really matter. It’s fascinating that how we communicate can affect the outcome. Communication in health care is perhaps more important than the patient recognises,” says Charlotte Blease, who is a researcher at the Department of Women’s and Children’s Health at Uppsala University.
Along with colleagues at Brown University in the United States and the University of Zurich in Switzerland she has written the book “The Nocebo Effect: When Words Make You Sick”. Nocebo is sometimes called the placebo’s evil twin. A placebo effect occurs when a patient thinks they feel better because of receiving medicine and part of that perception is due not to the drug but to positive expectations. The concept of the nocebo effect means that harmful things can happen because a person expects it – unconsciously or consciously. This is the first time the phenomenon has been addressed in a scholarly book. Researchers in medicine, history, culture, psychology and philosophy have examined it, each in their own particular area.
“It’s a very new field, an emerging discipline. Even if the nocebo effect is documented far back in history, it perhaps became especially obvious during the coronavirus pandemic,” Blease says.
A previous study of patients during the pandemic (see below) shows that as many as three quarters of the reported side-effects of the coronavirus vaccine may be due to the nocebo effect. The study involved more than 45,000 participants, approximately half of whom were injected with a saline solution instead of the vaccine but despite this still experienced many side-effects such as nausea and headache. In the book, the authors highlight that one issue that disappeared in the discussion of side-effects during the coronavirus pandemic was that many of these were actually due to the nocebo effect.
“Whether this is due to expectations – the nocebo effect – remains to be understood. However, it is curious that so many participants reported side-effects after receiving no vaccine. Regardless, some people may have been put off by what they heard about side-effects,” Blease comments.
On the off chance you hadn’t noticed, the world appears to be at an especially precarious moment presently. Obviously, war continues to rage in Ukraine and Gaza, with no end in sight to either conflict. Great Britain and Japan are currently in recession. Canada’s economy is an absolute disaster, with almost no hope of near-term recovery. Much of continental Europe and China are struggling economically, if not officially contracting. Some experts believe that the global economy more generally is sliding, slowly but surely, into recession. The only economic bright spot in the world is the United States, and even here we have our problems with consumer spending and sentiment, massive credit concerns, and inarguably sticky inflation.
Everywhere one looks, chaos reigns—or, at the very least, bubbles just below the surface.
Perhaps most telling among the signs of disarray is the unnerving rise of antisemitism in the United States, Europe, and throughout the world. Antisemitism, in general, has been intensifying, slowly but surely, over the last decade or so. Over the last few months, however, it has emerged fully into the open, undaunted and unembarrassed. What was once considered shameful and disconcerting is now warmly welcomed as a “rational” response to American foreign policy, Israeli war practices, “colonialism,” and “white privilege.”
All of this is troubling, to put it mildly, both in and of itself and as a harbinger of greater and more deadly global unrest.
Hatred of and anger toward Jews is not the same as other forms of bigotry.
In many ways, the history of Western anti-Jewish hatred mirrors the history of Western political chaos and collapse. Or, to put it another way, historically, Jews are not only the perennial scapegoats during periods of social upheaval and displacement, but resurgent anti-Semitism serves as the proverbial canary in the coal mine for the rise of revolutionary movements.
In his classic, The Pursuit of the Millennium, the British historian Norman Cohn argues that the Jewish diaspora generally fit comfortably, if tentatively into European society for most of the first thousand years or so A.D., and only became a hated and perpetually persecuted minority with the rise of utopian Millenarianism that accompanied and then outlived the Crusades. Beginning then and continuing for the next nearly a thousand years, Europeans came to associate Jews with the antichrist and thus to associate hatred and persecution of Jews with preparing the battlespace for the Second Coming. Many historians, including Hannah Arendt, believed that the anti-Semitism that was such an integral part of the West’s 20th-century collapse into totalitarianism was relatively new and, in any case, distinct from medieval anti-Semitism. Cohn’s history suggests otherwise, connecting the religious eschatology of medieval Europe to the quasi-religious eschatology of post-Enlightenment Europe, thereby connecting the persistence of Western anti-Semitism as well.
Cohn tells us that millenarian moments and the millenarian movements that capitalize on those moments all share a common group of characteristics. They all appear under certain social and economic conditions. They all appeal to a certain segment of the population at large, who then present themselves as economic, spiritual, and political leaders. They all utilize scapegoats, meaning that they all identify a different, usually much smaller segment of the population on whom they can blame all the world’s ills and then set about to cure those ills through the elimination of the scapegoat. And more often than not, that scapegoat tends to be Jewish.
In the conclusion to the second edition of Pursuit of the Millennium, Cohn notes that the millenarian fervor of the middle ages may have changed, but it never really died, and it maintained its common characteristics even as it became secular or “quasi-religious.” He wrote:
The story told in Pursuit of the Millennium ended some four centuries ago but is not without relevance to our own times. [I have] shown in another work [Warrant for Genocide: The Myth of the Jewish World Conspiracy and the Protocols of the Elders of Zion] how closely the Nazi phantasy of a world-wide Jewish conspiracy of destruction is related to the phantasies that inspired Emico of Leningrad and the Master of Hungary; and how mass disorientation and insecurity have fostered the demonization of the Jew in this as in much earlier centuries. The parallels and indeed the continuity are incontestable.
The parallels between the rise of Nazism and the current global unrest and demonization of the Jewish people are also largely incontestable. The election that brought Hitler to power didn’t happen in a vacuum, after all. It happened in the midst of global chaos, namely the Great Depression. It also followed the decadence and distortion of the Weimer Era. As the New York Fed has shown, even a global pandemic—the 1919 Spanish Flu outbreak—contributed to the sense of discomfort and disconnect among the German population, prompting increased support for Hitler and his Nazis.
The present global chaos doesn’t have to end the same way the chaos of a century ago did. It doesn’t have to result in the ascension of millenarian ideologies and their totalitarian defenders. History has shown that extremism can be short-circuited and radical ideologies undone. The first step in doing so, however, must be to bring an end to the rationalization of the persecution of the world’s Jews. The second step is to end the persecution itself.
Antisemitism is ugly and shameful, and it must be treated as such. For their sake and ours.
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