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Premium denim jeans market size to grow by USD 9.75 billion from 2021 to 2026; A descriptive analysis of customer landscape, vendor assessment, and market dynamics – Technavio
Premium denim jeans market size to grow by USD 9.75 billion from 2021 to 2026; A descriptive analysis of customer landscape, vendor assessment, and market dynamics – Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Jan. 16, 2023
NEW YORK, Jan. 16, 2023 /PRNewswire/…
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Premium denim jeans market size to grow by USD 9.75 billion from 2021 to 2026; A descriptive analysis of customer landscape, vendor assessment, and market dynamics - Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Jan. 16, 2023
NEW YORK, Jan. 16, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The global premium denim jeans market size is estimated to increase by USD 9.75 billion from 2021 to 2026. The market's growth momentum will be progressing at a CAGR of 6.9%.
Discover some insights on market size before buying the full report - Request a sample report
Global premium denim jeans market – Vendor Analysis
Vendor Offerings -
- 34 Heritage: The company offers premium denim jeans product brands such as CHARISMA and COURAGE.
- American Eagle Outfitters Inc.: The company offers premium denim jeans under the brands such as American Eagle and Aerie.
- BESTSELLER AS: The company offers premium denim jeans product brands such as JACK and JONES, VERO MODA, VILA, and JUNA ROSE.
- Capri Holdings Ltd.: The company offers premium denim jeans product brands such as Gianni Versace and Michael Kors.
- For Details on vendor and its offerings – Buy the report!
Vendor Landscape - The global premium denim jeans market is fragmented, with the presence of several global as well as regional vendors. A few prominent vendors that offer premium denim jeans in the market are 34 Heritage, American Eagle Outfitters Inc., BESTSELLER AS, Brunello Cucinelli SpA, Capri Holdings Ltd., Centric Brands Inc., DL1961 Inc., Ermenegildo Zegna N.V, Everlane Inc., Giorgio Armani S.p.A., Jacob Cohen Company S.p.A., Kering SA, Kontoor Brands Inc., Levi Strauss and Co., LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE, Naked and Famous Denims, Nudie Jeans Marketing AB, Pepe Jeans Sl, PVH Corp., and The Gap Inc. and others.
The global premium denim jeans market is highly competitive, with the presence of several established vendors. Most of the large and established players have extensive sales and distribution networks globally, whereas most small players are concentrated in the regional markets. Moreover, the competition in the market is expected to intensify further with the increased adoption of retail e-commerce. Many companies are focusing on M&A strategies to enhance their market share and geographic footprints.
Global premium denim jeans market - Customer Landscape
To help companies evaluate and develop growth strategies, the report outlines –
- Key purchase criteria
- Adoption rates
- Adoption lifecycle
- Drivers of price sensitivity
Global premium denim jeans market - Segmentation Assessment
Technavio has segmented the market based on end-user (Men, Women, and Children), and distribution channels (Offline and Online).
- The men's segment will grow at a significant rate during the forecast period. The men's segment is witnessing a growing momentum in the sales of jeans due to the proliferation of denim jeans as a business casual attire in the corporate world. Blue denim jeans in the boardrooms of companies are also gaining prominence, with jeans becoming the new symbol of power dressing. With an increase in white-collar employees, premium denim jeans are expected to grow steadily during the forecast period. The increasing preference for premium organic denim jeans among health-conscious customers across the globe is expected to drive the segment in the forthcoming years.
By geography, the global premium denim jeans market is segmented into North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East and Africa. The report provides actionable insights and estimates the contribution of all regions to the growth of the global premium denim jeans market.
- North America will account for 31% of the market's growth during the forecast period. The high purchasing power and enhanced living standards, along with the presence of many popular brands will facilitate the premium denim jeans market growth in North America over the forecast period. This market research report entails detailed information on the competitive intelligence, marketing gaps, and regional opportunities in store for vendors, which will assist in creating efficient business plans.
Global premium denim jeans market – Market Dynamics
Leading Drivers - One of the key factors driving growth in the premium denim jeans market is innovative product designs. Vendors of jeans are constantly innovating to combat the fierce competition from counterfeit apparel manufacturers. They are attracting customers by producing more comfortable jeans by making the products more flexible for compressions and stretches. This also provides them with traditional sportswear functionalities such as thermoregulation, moisture management, UV protection, and anti-rip features. This innovative approach has also helped the vendors to sustain the hike in the prices of cotton. Manufacturers of jeans are setting the trend of offering a new generation of fabric by delimiting the boundaries through hybrid blending techniques.
Key Trends - Recycling jeans from plastic and other materials is a premium denim jeans market trend, that is expected to have a positive impact in the coming years. Recycling jeans by using textile waste is done to minimize the environmental exploitation of resources and to reduce the dependency on scarce raw materials to produce new apparel. The wastage is recycled by converting the shredded waste into thin fibers, which are used to produce yarns. In such a process, it is important to ensure that the quality of the materials is not lost due to extensive recycling techniques. This is achieved by mixing the right combination of virgin fiber and other materials in the yarn to protect its intrinsic properties.
Major challenges - The fierce competition in the apparel industry will be a major challenge for the premium denim jeans market during the forecast period. Attractive and colorful bottom wear such as dresses, leggings, and athletic and yoga pants have captured the maximum floor space at retail outlets. The preference for athletic and yoga pants among both men and women has increased in recent years due to their multi-functional usage benefits. The inability of some of the denim manufacturers to maintain consistency in the quality of products is causing disappointments to the customers. The poor quality of denim is reflected by early fading, wear and tear, shrinkage, odor, and many more issues. These factors make consumers feel that they do not receive value for their money. In such a competitive market, fierce competition among the vendors of jeans and other apparel categories is certainly impacting the demand for premium jeans among customers.
What are the key data covered in this premium denim jeans market report?
- CAGR of the market during the forecast period
- Detailed information on factors that will drive the growth of the premium denim jeans market between 2022 and 2026
- Precise estimation of the size of the premium denim jeans market size and its contribution to the market in focus on the parent market
- Accurate predictions about upcoming trends and changes in consumer behavior
- Growth of the premium denim jeans market industry across North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East and Africa
- A thorough analysis of the market's competitive landscape and detailed information about vendors
- Comprehensive analysis of factors that will challenge the growth of premium denim jeans market vendors
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The size of the denim jeans market is expected to increase by USD 20.06 billion from 2021 to 2026, and the market's growth momentum will accelerate at a CAGR of 6.3%. This report extensively covers market segmentation by distribution channel (offline and online) and geography (APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa).
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Premium Denim Jeans Market Scope | |
Report Coverage | Details |
Page number | 157 |
Base year | 2021 |
Forecast period | 2022-2026 |
Growth momentum & CAGR | Accelerate at a CAGR of 6.9% |
Market growth 2022-2026 | USD 9.75 billion |
Market structure | Fragmented |
YoY growth 2022-2023 (%) | 6.31 |
Regional analysis | North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East and Africa |
Performing market contribution | North America at 31% |
Key countries | US, China, Germany, UK, and France |
Competitive landscape | Leading Vendors, Market Positioning of Vendors, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks |
Key companies profiled | 34 Heritage, American Eagle Outfitters Inc., BESTSELLER AS, Brunello Cucinelli SpA, Capri Holdings Ltd., Centric Brands Inc., DL1961 Inc., Ermenegildo Zegna N.V, Everlane Inc., Giorgio Armani S.p.A., Jacob Cohen Company S.p.A., Kering SA, Kontoor Brands Inc., Levi Strauss and Co., LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE, Naked and Famous Denims, Nudie Jeans Marketing AB, Pepe Jeans Sl, PVH Corp., and The Gap Inc. |
Market dynamics | Parent market analysis, Market growth inducers and obstacles, Fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, Market condition analysis for the forecast period |
Customization purview | If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized. |
Customization purview | If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized. |
1 Executive Summary
- 1.1 Market overview
- Exhibit 01: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Overview
- Exhibit 02: Executive Summary – Data Table on Market Overview
- Exhibit 03: Executive Summary – Chart on Global Market Characteristics
- Exhibit 04: Executive Summary – Chart on Market by Geography
- Exhibit 05: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by End-user
- Exhibit 06: Executive Summary – Chart on Incremental Growth
- Exhibit 07: Executive Summary – Data Table on Incremental Growth
- Exhibit 08: Executive Summary – Chart on Vendor Market Positioning
2 Market Landscape
- 2.1 Market ecosystem
- Exhibit 09: Parent market
- Exhibit 10: Market Characteristics
3 Market Sizing
- 3.1 Market definition
- Exhibit 11: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition
- 3.2 Market segment analysis
- Exhibit 12: Market segments
- 3.3 Market size 2021
- 3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2021-2026
- Exhibit 13: Chart on Global - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 14: Data Table on Global - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 15: Chart on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 16: Data Table on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
4 Five Forces Analysis
- 4.1 Five forces summary
- Exhibit 17: Five forces analysis - Comparison between 2021 and 2026
- 4.2 Bargaining power of buyers
- Exhibit 18: Chart on Bargaining power of buyers – Impact of key factors 2021 and 2026
- 4.3 Bargaining power of suppliers
- Exhibit 19: Bargaining power of suppliers – Impact of key factors in 2021 and 2026
- 4.4 Threat of new entrants
- Exhibit 20: Threat of new entrants – Impact of key factors in 2021 and 2026
- 4.5 Threat of substitutes
- Exhibit 21: Threat of substitutes – Impact of key factors in 2021 and 2026
- 4.6 Threat of rivalry
- Exhibit 22: Threat of rivalry – Impact of key factors in 2021 and 2026
- 4.7 Market condition
- Exhibit 23: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2021 and 2026
5 Market Segmentation by End-user
- 5.1 Market segments
- Exhibit 24: Chart on End-user - Market share 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 25: Data Table on End-user - Market share 2021-2026 (%)
- 5.2 Comparison by End-user
- Exhibit 26: Chart on Comparison by End-user
- Exhibit 27: Data Table on Comparison by End-user
- 5.3 Clothing and apparel - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 28: Chart on Clothing and apparel - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 29: Data Table on Clothing and apparel - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 30: Chart on Clothing and apparel - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 31: Data Table on Clothing and apparel - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 5.4 Decor and homeware - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 32: Chart on Decor and homeware - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 33: Data Table on Decor and homeware - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 34: Chart on Decor and homeware - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 35: Data Table on Decor and homeware - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 5.5 Accessories - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 36: Chart on Accessories - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 37: Data Table on Accessories - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 38: Chart on Accessories - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 39: Data Table on Accessories - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 5.6 Market opportunity by End-user
- Exhibit 40: Market opportunity by End-user ($ million)
6 Customer Landscape
- 6.1 Customer landscape overview
- Exhibit 41: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria
7 Geographic Landscape
- 7.1 Geographic segmentation
- Exhibit 42: Chart on Market share by geography 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 43: Data Table on Market share by geography 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.2 Geographic comparison
- Exhibit 44: Chart on Geographic comparison
- Exhibit 45: Data Table on Geographic comparison
- 7.3 APAC - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 46: Chart on APAC - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 47: Data Table on APAC - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 48: Chart on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 49: Data Table on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.4 North America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 50: Chart on North America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 51: Data Table on North America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 52: Chart on North America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 53: Data Table on North America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.5 Europe - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 54: Chart on Europe - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 55: Data Table on Europe - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 56: Chart on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 57: Data Table on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.6 South America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 58: Chart on South America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 59: Data Table on South America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 60: Chart on South America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 61: Data Table on South America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.7 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 62: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 63: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 64: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 65: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.8 China - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 66: Chart on China - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 67: Data Table on China - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 68: Chart on China - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 69: Data Table on China - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.9 India - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 70: Chart on India - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 71: Data Table on India - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 72: Chart on India - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 73: Data Table on India - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.10 US - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 74: Chart on US - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 75: Data Table on US - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 76: Chart on US - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 77: Data Table on US - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.11 Pakistan - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 78: Chart on Pakistan - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 79: Data Table on Pakistan - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 80: Chart on Pakistan - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 81: Data Table on Pakistan - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.12 Germany - Market size and forecast 2021-2026
- Exhibit 82: Chart on Germany - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 83: Data Table on Germany - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
- Exhibit 84: Chart on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- Exhibit 85: Data Table on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
- 7.13 Market opportunity by geography
- Exhibit 86: Market opportunity by geography ($ million)
8 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends
- 8.1 Market drivers
- 8.2 Market challenges
- 8.3 Impact of drivers and challenges
- Exhibit 87: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2021 and 2026
- 8.4 Market trends
9 Vendor Landscape
- 9.1 Overview
- 9.2 Vendor landscape
- Exhibit 88: Overview on Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
- 9.3 Landscape disruption
- Exhibit 89: Overview on factors of disruption
- 9.4 Industry risks
- Exhibit 90: Impact of key risks on business
10 Vendor Analysis
- 10.1 Vendors covered
- Exhibit 91: Vendors covered
- 10.2 Market positioning of vendors
- Exhibit 92: Matrix on vendor position and classification
- 10.3 Arvind Ltd.
- Exhibit 93: Arvind Ltd. - Overview
- Exhibit 94: Arvind Ltd. - Business segments
- Exhibit 95: Arvind Ltd. - Key offerings
- Exhibit 96: Arvind Ltd. - Segment focus
- 10.4 Bangladesh Export Import Co. Ltd.
- Exhibit 97: Bangladesh Export Import Co. Ltd. - Overview
- Exhibit 98: Bangladesh Export Import Co. Ltd. - Business segments
- Exhibit 99: Bangladesh Export Import Co. Ltd. - Key offerings
- Exhibit 100: Bangladesh Export Import Co. Ltd. - Segment focus
- 10.5 Ha Meem Group
- Exhibit 101: Ha Meem Group - Overview
- Exhibit 102: Ha Meem Group - Product / Service
- Exhibit 103: Ha Meem Group - Key offerings
- 10.6 Kuzgunlar Textile
- Exhibit 104: Kuzgunlar Textile - Overview
- Exhibit 105: Kuzgunlar Textile - Product / Service
- Exhibit 106: Kuzgunlar Textile - Key offerings
- 10.7 Modern Denim Ltd.
- Exhibit 107: Modern Denim Ltd. - Overview
- Exhibit 108: Modern Denim Ltd. - Product / Service
- Exhibit 109: Modern Denim Ltd. - Key offerings
- 10.8 NAHAR Group
- Exhibit 110: NAHAR Group - Overview
- Exhibit 111: NAHAR Group - Product / Service
- Exhibit 112: NAHAR Group - Key offerings
- 10.9 Noman Group
- Exhibit 113: Noman Group - Overview
- Exhibit 114: Noman Group - Product / Service
- Exhibit 115: Noman Group - Key offerings
- 10.10 Partap Group
- Exhibit 116: Partap Group - Overview
- Exhibit 117: Partap Group - Product / Service
- Exhibit 118: Partap Group - Key offerings
- 10.11 Raymond Ltd.
- Exhibit 119: Raymond Ltd. - Overview
- Exhibit 120: Raymond Ltd. - Product / Service
- Exhibit 121: Raymond Ltd. - Key offerings
- 10.12 Shandong Lanyan Textile and Garment Co. Ltd.
- Exhibit 122: Shandong Lanyan Textile and Garment Co. Ltd. - Overview
- Exhibit 123: Shandong Lanyan Textile and Garment Co. Ltd. - Product / Service
- Exhibit 124: Shandong Lanyan Textile and Garment Co. Ltd. - Key offerings
11 Appendix
- 11.1 Scope of the report
- 11.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist
- Exhibit 125: Inclusions checklist
- Exhibit 126: Exclusions checklist
- 11.3 Currency conversion rates for US$
- Exhibit 127: Currency conversion rates for US$
- 11.4 Research methodology
- Exhibit 128: Research methodology
- Exhibit 129: Validation techniques employed for market sizing
- Exhibit 130: Information sources
- 11.5 List of abbreviations
- Exhibit 131: List of abbreviations
Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focuses on emerging market trends and provides actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions. With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio's report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning across 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio's comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.
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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes
Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.
The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250
Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.
1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.
2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.
Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.
3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too
Total employment data
4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels.
From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.
Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:
In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:
- Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
- High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
- Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
- Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.
recession unemployment covid-19 fed federal reserve mortgage rates recession recovery unemploymentUncategorized
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Last month we though that the January…
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Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush.
What happened? Let's take a closer look.
On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.
Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.
Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K, a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!
Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.
In the past month the Biden department of goalseeking stuff higher before revising it lower, has revised the following data sharply lower:
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 30, 2023
- Jobs
- JOLTS
- New Home sales
- Housing Starts and Permits
- Industrial Production
- PCE and core PCE
To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).
And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...
... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...
... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.
While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.
But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).
This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.
There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).
Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!
But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!
The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!
Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...
... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!
This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...
... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.
Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.
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Economic Earthquake Ahead? The Cracks Are Spreading Fast
Economic Earthquake Ahead? The Cracks Are Spreading Fast
Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,
One of my favorite false narratives…
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Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,
One of my favorite false narratives floating around corporate media platforms has been the argument that the American people “just don’t seem to understand how good the economy really is right now.” If only they would look at the stats, they would realize that we are in the middle of a financial renaissance, right? It must be that people have been brainwashed by negative press from conservative sources…
I have to laugh at this notion because it’s a very common one throughout history – it’s an assertion made by almost every single political regime right before a major collapse. These people always say the same things, and when you study economics as long as I have you can’t help but throw up your hands and marvel at their dedication to the propaganda.
One example that comes to mind immediately is the delusional optimism of the “roaring” 1920s and the lead up to the Great Depression. At the time around 60% of the U.S. population was living in poverty conditions (according to the metrics of the decade) earning less than $2000 a year. However, in the years after WWI ravaged Europe, America’s economic power was considered unrivaled.
The 1920s was an era of mass production and rampant consumerism but it was all fueled by easy access to debt, a condition which had not really existed before in America. It was this illusion of prosperity created by the unchecked application of credit that eventually led to the massive stock market bubble and the crash of 1929. This implosion, along with the Federal Reserve’s policy of raising interest rates into economic weakness, created a black hole in the U.S. financial system for over a decade.
There are two primary tools that various failing regimes will often use to distort the true conditions of the economy: Debt and inflation. In the case of America today, we are experiencing BOTH problems simultaneously and this has made certain economic indicators appear healthy when they are, in fact, highly unstable. The average American knows this is the case because they see the effects everyday. They see the damage to their wallets, to their buying power, in the jobs market and in their quality of life. This is why public faith in the economy has been stuck in the dregs since 2021.
The establishment can flash out-of-context stats in people’s faces, but they can’t force the populace to see a recovery that simply does not exist. Let’s go through a short list of the most faulty indicators and the real reasons why the fiscal picture is not a rosy as the media would like us to believe…
The “miracle” labor market recovery
In the case of the U.S. labor market, we have a clear example of distortion through inflation. The $8 trillion+ dropped on the economy in the first 18 months of the pandemic response sent the system over the edge into stagflation land. Helicopter money has a habit of doing two things very well: Blowing up a bubble in stock markets and blowing up a bubble in retail. Hence, the massive rush by Americans to go out and buy, followed by the sudden labor shortage and the race to hire (mostly for low wage part-time jobs).
The problem with this “miracle” is that inflation leads to price explosions, which we have already experienced. The average American is spending around 30% more for goods, services and housing compared to what they were spending in 2020. This is what happens when you have too much money chasing too few goods and limited production.
The jobs market looks great on paper, but the majority of jobs generated in the past few years are jobs that returned after the covid lockdowns ended. The rest are jobs created through monetary stimulus and the artificial retail rush. Part time low wage service sector jobs are not going to keep the country rolling for very long in a stagflation environment. The question is, what happens now that the stimulus punch bowl has been removed?
Just as we witnessed in the 1920s, Americans have turned to debt to make up for higher prices and stagnant wages by maxing out their credit cards. With the central bank keeping interest rates high, the credit safety net will soon falter. This condition also goes for businesses; the same businesses that will jump headlong into mass layoffs when they realize the party is over. It happened during the Great Depression and it will happen again today.
Cracks in the foundation
We saw cracks in the narrative of the financial structure in 2023 with the banking crisis, and without the Federal Reserve backstop policy many more small and medium banks would have dropped dead. The weakness of U.S. banks is offset by the relative strength of the U.S. dollar, which lures in foreign investors hoping to protect their wealth using dollar denominated assets.
But something is amiss. Gold and bitcoin have rocketed higher along with economically sensitive assets and the dollar. This is the opposite of what’s supposed to happen. Gold and BTC are supposed to be hedges against a weak dollar and a weak economy, right? If global faith in the dollar and in the U.S. economy is so high, why are investors diving into protective assets like gold?
Again, as noted above, inflation distorts everything.
Tens of trillions of extra dollars printed by the Fed are floating around and it’s no surprise that much of that cash is flooding into the economy which simply pushes higher right along with prices on the shelf. But, gold and bitcoin are telling us a more honest story about what’s really happening.
Right now, the U.S. government is adding around $600 billion per month to the national debt as the Fed holds rates higher to fight inflation. This debt is going to crush America’s financial standing for global investors who will eventually ask HOW the U.S. is going to handle that growing millstone? As I predicted years ago, the Fed has created a perfect Catch-22 scenario in which the U.S. must either return to rampant inflation, or, face a debt crisis. In either case, U.S. dollar-denominated assets will lose their appeal and their prices will plummet.
“Healthy” GDP is a complete farce
GDP is the most common out-of-context stat used by governments to convince the citizenry that all is well. It is yet another stat that is entirely manipulated by inflation. It is also manipulated by the way in which modern governments define “economic activity.”
GDP is primarily driven by spending. Meaning, the higher inflation goes, the higher prices go, and the higher GDP climbs (to a point). Eventually prices go too high, credit cards tap out and spending ceases. But, for a short time inflation makes GDP (as well as retail sales) look good.
Another factor that creates a bubble is the fact that government spending is actually included in the calculation of GDP. That’s right, every dollar of your tax money that the government wastes helps the establishment by propping up GDP numbers. This is why government spending increases will never stop – It’s too valuable for them to spend as a way to make the economy appear healthier than it is.
The REAL economy is eclipsing the fake economy
The bottom line is that Americans used to be able to ignore the warning signs because their bank accounts were not being directly affected. This is over. Now, every person in the country is dealing with a massive decline in buying power and higher prices across the board on everything – from food and fuel to housing and financial assets alike. Even the wealthy are seeing a compression to their profit and many are struggling to keep their businesses in the black.
The unfortunate truth is that the elections of 2024 will probably be the turning point at which the whole edifice comes tumbling down. Even if the public votes for change, the system is already broken and cannot be repaired without a complete overhaul.
We have consistently avoided taking our medicine and our disease has gotten worse and worse.
People have lost faith in the economy because they have not faced this kind of uncertainty since the 1930s. Even the stagflation crisis of the 1970s will likely pale in comparison to what is about to happen. On the bright side, at least a large number of Americans are aware of the threat, as opposed to the 1920s when the vast majority of people were utterly conned by the government, the banks and the media into thinking all was well. Knowing is the first step to preparing.
The second step is securing your own financial future – that’s where physical precious metals can play a role. Diversifying your savings with inflation-resistant, uninflatable assets whose intrinsic value doesn’t rely on a counterparty’s promise to pay adds resilience to your savings. That’s the main reason physical gold and silver have been the safe haven store-of-value assets of choice for centuries (among both the elite and the everyday citizen).
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