Connect with us

International

Pfizer Vaccine News is Fantastic! – Top UK Scientists Caution 1st Gen Vaccines “Likely To Be Imperfect”

Top UK Scientists Warn "Many, Or All" COVID-19 Vaccine Projects Could Fail, First Gen "Likely To Be Imperfect"

Published

on

This article was originally published by ZeroHedge.

Top UK Scientists Warn "Many, Or All" COVID-19 Vaccine Projects Could Fail, First Gen "Likely To Be Imperfect" Tyler Durden Thu, 10/29/2020 - 04:15

MSM outlets seized on groundbreaking research produced by the Imperial College of London yesterday, claiming that the study's findings that COVID-19 antibodies degrade during the months following infection to bash the Great Barrington Declaration, arguing that herd immunity would be virtually impossible to establish without the help of a vaccine that can provoke a stronger immune system response.

Well, on Wednesday morning, as the US government struck a deal to buy $375 million worth of an experimental Eli Lilly COVID-19 antibody drug following questionable trial results, a team of leading scientists in the UK warned that the quest for a vaccine could be complicated by an "imperfect" initial round of tests.

In fact, members of the UK's Vaccine Taskforce warned in an article published in the Lancet that a fully effective vaccine might never be developed, and that early versions of approved vaccines might not work for all people.

The letter is clearly an effort to temper people's expectations as a growing body of research shows that COVID-19 immunity is more complicated than many would suspect, while President Trump continues to insist that a vaccine will be available within weeks as he battles for reelection. Recently, Pfizer, the current US frontrunner, saw its CEO delay the release of trial data that was expected by the end of the week.

Importantly, the team warned that there might never be a working vaccine: "However, we do not know that we will ever have a vaccine at all. It is important to guard against complacency and over-optimism," said Kate Bingham, the chair of the UK Vaccines Taskforce.

"The first generation of vaccines is likely to be imperfect, and we should be prepared that they might not prevent infection but rather reduce symptoms and, even then, might not work for everyone or for long." The taskforce added that "many, and possibly all" of the vaccine projects currently in the works could fail.

Readers can find the letter below in its entirety (text courtesy of the Lancet).

* * *

No vaccine in the history of medicine has been as eagerly anticipated as that to protect against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Vaccination is widely regarded as the only true exit strategy from the pandemic that is currently spreading globally.

The UK is at the forefront of a huge international effort to develop clinically safe and effective vaccines. The Vaccine Taskforce was the brainchild of Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK Government's chief scientific advisor, who saw the need for a dedicated, nimble private-sector team of experts embedded in the Government to drive forward the development of vaccines for the UK and internationally. The Vaccine Taskforce was set up under the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy in May, 2020, and I was asked to chair the taskforce, reporting directly to the prime minister, and working alongside Deputy Chair Clive Dix. The Vaccine Taskforce aims to ensure that the UK population has access to vaccines as soon as possible, while working with partners to support equitable access for populations worldwide, whether rich or poor.

However, we do not know that we will ever have a vaccine at all. It is important to guard against complacency and over-optimism. The first generation of vaccines is likely to be imperfect, and we should be prepared that they might not prevent infection but rather reduce symptoms, and, even then, might not work for everyone or for long.

Our strategy has been to build a diverse portfolio across different formats to give the UK the greatest chance of providing a safe and effective vaccine, recognising that many, and possibly all, of these vaccines could fail. We have focused on vaccines that are expected to elicit immune responses in the population older than 65 years: over three-quarters of deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection are in this older population,1, 2 so it is essential that any vaccine is able to protect this group. Scalability of vaccine manufacture was also a key criterion, with the goal being to manufacture in the UK, if possible, to secure supply and create long-term resilience. We considered only vaccines that have the potential for approval by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency and European Medicines Agency and for vaccine delivery as early as the end of 2020 or, at the latest, in the second half of 2021.

The Vaccine Taskforce has now secured access to six vaccines (from more than 240 vaccines in development) across four different formats: adenoviral vectors, mRNA, adjuvanted proteins, and whole inactivated viral vaccines, which are promising in different ways. The most advanced vaccines, such as those developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford, BioNTech and Pfizer, and Janssen, are based on novel formats for which we have little experience of their use as vaccines, although the initial immunogenicity and safety data are encouraging.3, 4, 5 Vaccines based on frequently used vaccine formats, such as adjuvanted protein vaccines developed by Novavax, and by GSK and Sanofi, and inactivated whole viruses developed by Valneva, will not be available until late in 2021.

We also have an agreement with AstraZeneca to supply a neutralising antibody cocktail as a prophylactic treatment once clinical trials are completed and it is approved by regulators. This treatment will be provided in the short term for people who cannot receive a vaccine, such as people who are heavily immunosuppressed and cannot mount an immune response, or people who need immediate protection, such as health-care workers.

The Vaccine Taskforce has options to purchase sufficient doses of each vaccine type to vaccinate the appropriate UK population. Following the interim advice by the UK's Joint Committee of Vaccination and Immunisations,6 vaccination would be recommended for adults older than 50 years, health-care and social-care workers on the front line, and adults with underlying comorbidities. The precise dose required will be determined as part of the clinical trials and by the decisions made by the UK Government on the basis of the advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation. We anticipate that most vaccines will require two doses, and we are also investigating whether annual or biannual revaccination booster shots might be required to maintain durable protection.

Developers of COVID-19 vaccines range from small biotechnology companies to big pharmaceutical companies, each with different commercial objectives and with different amounts of funding to support manufacturing scale-up and clinical trials. In some cases, the Vaccine Taskforce is investing at risk to support these activities before we know whether the vaccine is safe and effective, and, in other cases, we have negotiated an advanced purchase agreement. In both instances, government funding is usually linked to reaching clinical, regulatory, and other milestones. If a vaccine is not going to work, then we will stop funding.

Some of the developers, such as AstraZeneca, GSK and Sanofi, and Janssen, are pursuing the development of a vaccine on a non-profit basis, at least for the pandemic period; whereas others view the resources and risk that they are assuming as justification for seeking a profit.

The first phase 3 efficacy data from the leading vaccine candidates are due by the end of 2020, subject to accruing sufficient rates of infection within the clinical trial cohorts to show the vaccines' efficacy. The primary endpoint is to show that the vaccine can protect against SARS-CoV-2 infection and reduce symptom burden. Two phase 3 efficacy clinical trials are now underway in the UK; the Oxford AstraZeneca adenovirus-vectored vaccine (NCT04400838) and the world's first phase 3 study for Novavax's protein-adjuvant vaccine (NCT04368988), both occurring at various sites across the UK. Numerous phase 3 studies are in preparation to start in the UK in 2020 and 2021 with US, European, Australian, and possibly Chinese vaccine developers, reflecting the UK's strong reputation for running clinical trials and postauthorisation pharmacovigilance of high quality.

To help to accelerate the development of successful vaccines, we launched the National Health Service COVID-19 vaccine registry7 and have enrolled over 295 000 volunteers,8 with a focus on populations who are at high risk of severe infection and mortality from COVID-19. We plan to accelerate recruitment in disease hotspots with mobile research teams informed by robust PCR testing, and have provided funding for clinical trials of crucial importance, including Janssen's two-dose Ad26 protocol (NCT04505722), Imperial College London's self-amplifying RNA (ISRCTN17072692), and Valneva's whole inactivated vaccine. We are also exploring the potential for future controlled human challenge studies, dependent on ethics and regulatory approvals. These studies have the potential to assess the efficacy of vaccines more quickly and with far fewer participants than a standard phase 3 trial. The Vaccine Taskforce is also supporting the development of heterologous boost clinical protocols, through the National Institute for Health Research, to explore whether different vaccine combinations can increase immunity or durability of protection.

To harmonise results from the various clinical trials, and to help to define immune correlates of protection, we have supported development of standardised, accredited assays, including quantitative high-throughput spike-protein ELISAs, live viral-neutralisation assays, and T-cell assays, which will be available to all vaccine developers.

A major challenge is that the global manufacturing capacity for vaccines is vastly inadequate for the billions of doses that are needed, and the UK manufacturing capability to date has been equally scarce. The Vaccine Taskforce has provided funding for flexible and surge production in several new UK sites for vaccine manufacture to provide the UK population with a new vaccine in less than 9 months from the identification of the pathogen. We also plan to bring new vaccine technologies and capabilities to the UK for future pandemic preparedness.

No-one has ever done mass vaccination of adults anywhere in the world before and the two-dose regimen, plus cold-chain restrictions for some vaccines, adds to the complexity of this deployment operation. National Health Service England has flexible deployment plans to start the vaccination of prioritised cohorts as soon as the vaccines are approved by the regulatory authorities, currently not to be coadministered with the influenza vaccination (although clinical trials are exploring coadministration of influenza and COVID-19 vaccines). Deployment plans have been developed for a range of settings from mass vaccination sites to large and small mobile (eg, pop-up) sites, general-practitioner surgeries and pharmacies, and even roving teams to visit people in care homes and people who are housebound or shielding.

We cannot, however, protect the UK without working with our international partners to protect the world. SARS-CoV-2 is a global pandemic with a toll of over 1·1 million deaths.9 No one is safe until we are all safe. Pandemic viruses do not respect national borders. There will not be one successful vaccine, or one single country, that is able to supply the world. We urgently need international cooperation to pool risks and costs, address barriers to access, and scale up the manufacturing capacity to produce sufficient doses to protect everyone at risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection globally.

The UK is committed to ensuring that everyone at risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, anywhere in the world, has access to a safe and effective vaccine. The COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access Facility, to which the UK has committed £548 million, will deliver vaccines for the UK population and provide access to vaccines for lower income countries: initially 2 billion doses for 1 billion people worldwide. Working with Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, WHO, and a broad alliance of 180 nations, this pooling of resources maximises the chances of securing access to a vaccine and making it available to all who need it. But we now need to make this global facility a permanent one: ready to respond to future pandemics quickly in the future and to control COVID-19.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is likely to evolve, and other zoonotic pathogens are likely to pose future risks. China, Europe, the USA, and the UK need to work together. If we establish international collaboration right now, then we will be better prepared to control future pandemics without causing the largest global recession in history and the biggest threat to lives in living memory.

* * *

Source: The Lancet

Read More

Continue Reading

International

EyePoint poaches medical chief from Apellis; Sandoz CFO, longtime BioNTech exec to retire

Ramiro Ribeiro
After six years as head of clinical development at Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Ramiro Ribeiro is joining EyePoint Pharmaceuticals as CMO.
“The…

Published

on

Ramiro Ribeiro

After six years as head of clinical development at Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Ramiro Ribeiro is joining EyePoint Pharmaceuticals as CMO.

“The retinal community is relatively small, so everybody knows each other,” Ribeiro told Endpoints News in an interview. “As soon as I started to talk about EyePoint, I got really good feedback from KOLs and physicians on its scientific standards and quality of work.”

Ribeiro kicked off his career as a clinician in Brazil, earning a doctorate in stem cell therapy for retinal diseases. He previously held roles at Alcon and Ophthotech Corporation, now known as Astellas’ M&A prize Iveric Bio.

At Apellis, Ribeiro oversaw the Phase III development, filing and approval of Syfovre, the first drug for geographic atrophy secondary to age-related macular degeneration (AMD). The complement C3 inhibitor went on to make $275 million in 2023 despite reports of a rare side effect that only emerged after commercialization.

Now, Ribeiro is hoping to replicate that success with EyePoint’s lead candidate, EYP-1901 for wet AMD, which is set to enter the Phase III LUGANO trial in the second half of the year after passing a Phase II test in December.

Ribeiro told Endpoints he was optimistic about the company’s intraocular sustained-delivery tech, which he said could help address treatment burden and compliance issues seen with injectables. He also has plans to expand the EyePoint team.

“My goal is not just execution of the Phase III study — of course that’s a priority — but also looking at the pipeline and which different assets we can bring in to leverage the strength of the team that we have,” Ribeiro said.

Ayisha Sharma


Remco Steenbergen

Sandoz CFO Colin Bond will retire on June 30 and board member Remco Steenbergen will replace him. Steenbergen, who will step down from the board when he takes over on July 1, had a 20-year career with Philips and has held the group CFO post at Deutsche Lufthansa since January 2021. Bond joined Sandoz nearly two years ago and is the former finance chief at Evotec and Vifor Pharma. Investors didn’t react warmly to Wednesday’s news as shares fell by almost 4%.

The Swiss generics and biosimilars company, which finally split from Novartis in October 2023, has also nominated FogPharma CEO Mathai Mammen to the board of directors. The ex-R&D chief at J&J will be joined by two other new faces, Swisscom chairman Michael Rechsteiner and former Unilever CFO Graeme Pitkethly.

On Monday, Sandoz said it completed its $70 million purchase of Coherus BioSciencesLucentis biosimilar Cimerli sooner than expected. The FDA then approved its first two biosimilars of Amgen’s denosumab the next day, in a move that could whittle away at the pharma giant’s market share for Prolia and Xgeva.

Sean Marett

BioNTech’s chief business and commercial officer Sean Marett will retire on July 1 and will have an advisory role “until the end of the year,” the German drugmaker said in a release. Legal chief James Ryan will assume CBO responsibilities and BioNTech plans to name a new chief commercial officer by the end of the month. Marett was hired as BioNTech’s COO in 2012 after gigs at GSK, Evotec and Next Pharma, and led its commercial efforts as the Pfizer-partnered Comirnaty received the first FDA approval for a Covid-19 vaccine. BioNTech has also built a cancer portfolio that TD Cowen’s Yaron Werber described as “one of the most extensive” in biotech, from antibody-drug conjugates to CAR-T therapies.

Chris Austin

→ GSK has plucked Chris Austin from Flagship and he’ll start his new gig as the pharma giant’s SVP, research technologies on April 1. After a long career at NIH in which he was director of the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS), Austin became CEO of Flagship’s Vesalius Therapeutics, which debuted with a $75 million Series A two years ago this week but made job cuts that affected 43% of its employees six months into the life of the company. In response to Austin’s departure, John Mendlein — who chairs the board at Sail Biomedicines and has board seats at a few other Flagship biotechs — will become chairman and interim CEO at Vesalius “later this month.”

BioMarin has lined up Cristin Hubbard to replace Jeff Ajer as chief commercial officer on May 20. Hubbard worked for new BioMarin chief Alexander Hardy as Genentech’s SVP, global product strategy, immunology, infectious diseases and ophthalmology, and they had been colleagues for years before Hardy was named Genentech CEO in 2019. She shifted to Roche Diagnostics as global head of partnering in 2021 and had been head of global product strategy for Roche’s pharmaceutical division since last May. Sales of the hemophilia A gene therapy Roctavian have fallen well short of expectations, but Hardy insisted in a recent investor call that BioMarin is “still very much at the early stage” in the launch.

Pilar de la Rocha

BeiGene has promoted Pilar de la Rocha to head of Europe, global clinical operations. After 13 years in a variety of roles at Novartis, de la Rocha was named global head of global clinical operations excellence at the Brukinsa maker in the summer of 2022. A short time ago, BeiGene ended its natural killer cell therapy alliance with Shoreline Biosciences, saying that it was “a result of BeiGene’s internal prioritization decisions and does not reflect any deficit in Shoreline’s platform technology.”

Andy Crockett

Andy Crockett has resigned as CEO of KalVista Pharmaceuticals. Crockett had been running the company since its launch in 2011 and will hand the keys to president Ben Palleiko, who joined KalVista in 2016 as CFO. Serious safety issues ended a Phase II study of its hereditary angioedema drug KVD824, but KalVista is mounting a comeback with positive Phase III results for sebetralstat in the same indication and could compete with Takeda’s injectable Firazyr. “If approved, sebetralstat may offer a compelling treatment option for patients and their caregivers given the long-standing preference for an effective and safe oral therapy that provides rapid symptom relief for HAE attacks,” Crockett said last month.

Steven Lo

Vaxart has tapped Steven Lo as its permanent president and CEO, while interim chief Michael Finney will stay on as chairman. Endpoints News last caught up with Lo when he became CEO at Valitor, the UC Berkeley spinout that raised a $28 million Series B round in October 2022. The ex-Zosano Pharma CEO had a handful of roles in his 13 years at Genentech before his appointments as chief commercial officer of Corcept Therapeutics and Puma Biotechnology. Andrei Floroiu resigned as Vaxart’s CEO in mid-January.

Kartik Krishnan

Kartik Krishnan has taken over for Martin Driscoll as CEO of OncoNano Medicine, and Melissa Paoloni has moved up to COO at the cancer biotech located in the Dallas-Fort Worth suburb of Southlake. The execs were colleagues at Arcus Biosciences, Gilead’s TIGIT partner: Krishnan spent two and a half years in the CMO post, while Paoloni was VP of corporate development and external alliances. In 2022, Krishnan took the CMO job at OncoNano and was just promoted to president and head of R&D last November. Paoloni came on board as OncoNano’s SVP, corporate development and strategy not long after Krishnan’s first promotion.

Genesis Research Group, a consultancy specializing in market access, has brought in David Miller as chairman and CEO, replacing co-founder Frank Corvino — who is transitioning to the role of vice chairman and senior advisor. Miller joins the New Jersey-based team with a number of roles under his belt from Biogen (SVP of global market access), Elan (VP of pharmacoeconomics) and GSK (VP of global health outcomes).

Adrian Schreyer

Adrian Schreyer helped build Exscientia’s AI drug discovery platform from the ground up, but he has packed his bags for Nimbus Therapeutics’ AI partner Anagenex. The new chief technology officer joined Exscientia in 2013 as head of molecular informatics and was elevated to technology chief five years later. He then held the role of VP, AI technology until January, a month before Exscientia fired CEO Andrew Hopkins.

Paul O’Neill has been promoted from SVP to EVP, quality & operations, specialty brands at Mallinckrodt. Before his arrival at the Irish pharma in March 2023, O’Neill was executive director of biologics operations in the second half of his 12-year career with Merck driving supply strategy for Keytruda. Mallinckrodt’s specialty brands portfolio includes its controversial Acthar Gel (a treatment for flares in a number of chronic and autoimmune indications) and the hepatorenal syndrome med Terlivaz.

David Ford

→ Staying in Ireland, Prothena has enlisted David Ford as its first chief people officer. Ford worked in human resources at Sanofi from 2002-17 and then led the HR team at Intercept, which was sold to Italian pharma Alfasigma in late September. We recently told you that Daniel Welch, the former InterMune CEO who was a board member at Intercept for six years, will succeed Lars Ekman as Prothena’s chairman.

Ben Stephens

→ Co-founded by Sanofi R&D chief Houman Ashrafian and backed by GSK, Eli Lilly partner Sitryx stapled an additional $39 million to its Series A last fall. It has now welcomed a pair of execs: Ben Stephens (COO) had been finance director for ViaNautis Bio and Rinri Therapeutics, and Gordon Dingwall (head of clinical operations) is a Roche and AstraZeneca vet who led development operations at Mission Therapeutics. Dingwall has also served as a clinical operations leader for Shionogi and Freeline Therapeutics.

Steve Alley

MBrace Therapeutics, an antibody-drug conjugate specialist that nabbed $85 million in Series B financing last November, has named Steve Alley as CSO. Alley spent two decades at Seagen before the $43 billion buyout by Pfizer and was the ADC maker’s executive director, translational sciences.

→ California cancer drug developer Apollomics, which has been mired in Nasdaq compliance problems nearly a year after it joined the public markets through a SPAC merger, has recruited Matthew Plunkett as CFO. Plunkett has held the same title at Nkarta as well as Imago BioSciences — leading the companies to $290 million and $155 million IPOs, respectively — and at Aeovian Pharmaceuticals since March 2022.

Heinrich Haas

→ Co-founded by Oxford professor Adrian Hill — the co-inventor of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine — lipid nanoparticle biotech NeoVac has brought in Heinrich Haas as chief technology officer. During his nine years at BioNTech, Haas was VP of RNA formulation and drug delivery.

Kimberly Lee

→ New Jersey-based neuro biotech 4M Therapeutics is making its Peer Review debut by introducing Kimberly Lee as CBO. Lee was hired at Taysha Gene Therapies during its meteoric rise in 2020 and got promoted to chief corporate affairs officer in 2022. Earlier, she led corporate strategy and investor relations efforts for Lexicon Pharmaceuticals.

→ Another Peer Review newcomer, Osmol Therapeutics, has tapped former Exelixis clinical development chief Ron Weitzman as interim CMO. Weitzman only lasted seven months as medical chief of Tango Therapeutics after Marc Rudoltz had a similarly short stay in that position. Osmol is going after chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy and chemotherapy-induced cognitive impairment with its lead asset OSM-0205.

→ Last August, cardiometabolic disease player NeuroBo Pharmaceuticals locked in Hyung Heon Kim as president and CEO. Now, the company is giving Marshall Woodworth the title of CFO and principal financial and accounting officer, after he served in the interim since last October. Before NeuroBo, Woodworth had a string of CFO roles at Nevakar, Braeburn Pharmaceuticals, Aerocrine and Fureix Pharmaceuticals.

Claire Poll

Claire Poll has retired after more than 17 years as Verona Pharma’s general counsel, and the company has appointed Andrew Fisher as her successor. In his own 17-year tenure at United Therapeutics that ended in 2018, Fisher was chief strategy officer and deputy general counsel. The FDA will decide on Verona’s non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis candidate ensifentrine by June 26.

Nancy Lurker

Alkermes won its proxy battle with Sarissa Capital Management and is tinkering with its board nearly nine months later. The newest director, Bristol Myers Squibb alum Nancy Lurker, ran EyePoint Pharmaceuticals from 2016-23 and still has a board seat there. For a brief period, Lurker was chief marketing officer for Novartis’ US subsidiary.

→ Chaired by former Celgene business development chief George Golumbeski, Shattuck Labs has expanded its board to nine members by bringing in ex-Seagen CEO Clay Siegall and Tempus CSO Kate Sasser. Siegall holds the top spots at Immunome and chairs the board at Tourmaline Bio, while Sasser came to Tempus from Genmab in 2022.

Scott Myers

→ Ex-AMAG Pharmaceuticals and Rainier Therapeutics chief Scott Myers has been named chairman of the board at Convergent Therapeutics, a radiopharma player that secured a $90 million Series A last May. Former Magenta exec Steve Mahoney replaced Myers as CEO of Viridian Therapeutics a few months ago.

→ Montreal-based Find Therapeutics has elected Tony Johnson to the board of directors. Johnson is in his first year as CEO of Domain Therapeutics. He is also the former chief executive at Goldfinch Bio, the kidney disease biotech that closed its doors last year.

Habib Dable

→ Former Acceleron chief Habib Dable has replaced Kala Bio CEO Mark Iwicki as chairman of the board at Aerovate Therapeutics, which is signing up patients for Phase IIb and Phase III studies of its lead drug AV-101 for pulmonary arterial hypertension. Dable joined Aerovate’s board in July and works part-time as a venture partner for RA Capital Management.

Julie Cherrington

→ In the burgeoning world of ADCs, Elevation Oncology is developing one of its own that targets Claudin 18.2. Its board is now up to eight members with the additions of Julie Cherrington and Mirati CMO Alan Sandler. Cherrington, a venture partner at Brandon Capital Partners, also chairs the boards at Actym Therapeutics and Tolremo Therapeutics. Sandler took the CMO job at Mirati in November 2022 and will stay in that position after Bristol Myers acquired the Krazati maker.

Patty Allen

Lonnie Moulder’s Zenas BioPharma has welcomed Patty Allen to the board of directors. Allen was a key figure in Vividion’s $2 billion sale to Bayer as the San Diego biotech’s CFO, and she’s a board member at Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, SwanBio Therapeutics and Anokion.

→ In January 2023, Y-mAbs Therapeutics cut 35% of its staff to focus on commercialization of Danyelza. This week, the company has reserved a seat on its board of directors for Nektar Therapeutics CMO Mary Tagliaferri. Tagliaferri also sits on the boards of Enzo Biochem and is a former board member of RayzeBio.

→ The ex-Biogen neurodegeneration leader at the center of Aduhelm’s controversial approval is now on the scientific advisory board at Asceneuron, a Swiss-based company focused on Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s. Samantha Budd-Haeberlein tops the list of new SAB members, which also includes Henrik Zetterberg, Rik Ossenkoppele and Christopher van Dyck.

Read More

Continue Reading

International

Deflationary pressures in China – be careful what you wish for

Until recently, China’s decelerating inflation was welcomed by the West, as it led to lower imported prices and helped reduce inflationary pressures….

Published

on

Until recently, China’s decelerating inflation was welcomed by the West, as it led to lower imported prices and helped reduce inflationary pressures. However, China’s consumer prices fell for the third consecutive month in December 2023, delaying the expected rebound in economic activity following the lifting of COVID-19 controls. For calendar year 2023, CPI growth was negligible, whilst the producer price index declined by 3.0 per cent.

China’s inflation dynamics

China’s inflation dynamics

Chinese consumers are hindered by the weaker residential property market and high youth unemployment. Several property developers have defaulted, collectively wiping out nearly all the U.S.$155 billion worth of U.S. dollar denominated-bonds. 

Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite Index is at half of its record high, recorded in late 2007. The share prices of major developers, including Evergrande Group, Country Garden Holdings, Sunac China and Shimao Group, have declined by an average of 98 per cent over recent years. Some economists are pointing to the Japanese experience of a debt-deflation cycle in the 1990s, with economic stagnation and elevated debt levels.

Australia has certainly enjoyed the “pull-up effect” from China, particularly with the iron-ore price jumping from around U.S.$20/tonne in 2000 to an average closer to U.S.$120/tonne over the 17 years from 2007. With strong volume increases, the value of Australia’s iron ore exports has jumped 20-fold to around A$12 billion per month, accounting for approximately 35 per cent of Australia’s exports. 

For context, China takes 85 per cent of Australia’s iron ore exports, whilst Australia accounts for 65 per cent of China’s iron ore imports. China’s steel industry depends on its own domestic iron ore mines for 20 per cent of its requirement, however, these are high-cost operations and need high iron ore prices to keep them in business. To reduce its dependence on Australia’s iron ore, China has increased its use of scrap metal and invested large sums of money in Africa, including the Simandou mine in Guinea, which is forecast to export 60 million tonnes of iron ore from 2028.

The Chinese housing market has historically been the source of 40 per cent of China’s steel usage. However, the recent high iron ore prices are attributable to the growth in China’s industrial and infrastructure activity, which has offset the weakness in residential construction.

Whilst this has continued to deliver supernormal profits for Australia’s major iron ore producers (and has greatly assisted the federal budget), watch out for any sustainable downturn in the iron ore price, particularly if the deflationary pressures in China continue into the medium term.

Read More

Continue Reading

International

Deterra Royalties half-yearly result: stable performance and growth Initiatives

Deterra Royalties (ASX:DRR) was established through a strategic demerger from Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX:ILU) in 2020. At the core of Deterra Royalties portfolio…

Published

on

Deterra Royalties (ASX:DRR) was established through a strategic demerger from Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX:ILU) in 2020. At the core of Deterra Royalties portfolio lies long-life, Mining Area C (MAC), a premier iron ore mining operation in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, operationally managed by BHP. This key asset is underpinned by a royalty agreement that ensures Deterra Royalties receives quarterly payments equivalent to 1.232 per cent of the revenue generated, alongside substantial one-off payments of A$1 million for each dry metric tonne increase in annual production capacity. 

South flank, a critical component of the MAC, exemplifies BHP’s latest advancement in iron ore mining, marking its inaugural production in May 2021. In financial year 2023, MAC annual iron ore production amounted to 126 million wet metric tonnes, up 14 per cent on the prior year. The company has reiterated that capacity payments have been set at 118 million tonnes last year and are expected to be updated to current production of 126 million tonnes in June 2024, with potential upside to 145 million tonnes shortly after that. Thus, there is potential upside to dividends of $8 million in capacity payments by June 2024. Meanwhile, revenue amounted to $215.2 million plus a $13 million capacity payment from south flank expansion. Net profit after tax came in at $152.5 million. 

The company distributes 100 per cent of its profits as dividends. 

In a global landscape marked by burgeoning uncertainty and China’s post-COVID-19 economic malaise, Deterra Royalties emerges as providing iron exposure with greater stability. Deterra Royalties offers investors exposure to the iron ore market with distinctly reduced volatility compared to traditional mining entities. 

With that background established, the company released its half-yearly results for FY24, reporting figures that were largely in line with both internal expectations and market consensus. The company continues to explore avenues for portfolio expansion, particularly in bulk, base, and battery commodity royalties, although no deals have been finalised. With substantial undrawn debt facilities of $500 million and recent declines in junior mining company stocks, Deterra Royalties may be moving closer to securing new deals to create new royalties or purchase existing royalties. 

Deterra Royalties reported a net profit after tax (NPAT) of $78.7 million for the first half of FY24, matching internal projections and closely aligning with market estimates, albeit slightly below consensus by three per cent. The declared dividend of $14.89 conditions precedent, representing 100 per cent of NPAT in accordance with Deterra Royalties dividend policy, also fell within anticipated ranges but slightly missed consensus. Revenue for the period stood at A$119 million, consistent with the pre-reported royalty revenue update. 

Operating costs dipped by two per cent from the previous half-year to A$4.3 million but were up by four per cent year-on-year. Notably, business development costs surged to A$1.3 million, marking a 50 per cent increase from the previous period and a 140 per cent rise from the same period last year. This uptick reflects Deterra Royalties intensified efforts to evaluate growth opportunities, as managing director Julian Andrews highlighted. 

Deterra Royalties remains steadfast in its pursuit of growth opportunities, maintaining a flexible approach in both the size and type of investments/royalties sought. The company’s focus spans non-precious metals, including bulk, base, and battery metals, primarily targeting developed mining jurisdictions across Australia, North America, South America, and Europe. Deterra Royalties continues to prioritise royalties for production or near-production companies. 

A company that pays 100 per cent of its earnings as a dividend is relatively easy to value with a discounted cash flow (DCF). Adopting a required return of 6-7 per cent of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), Deterra Royalties valuation falls in a range between A$4.70 and $5.10 per share. 

In summary, Deterra Royalties’ half-yearly results provided the stable and somewhat predictable operational performance our portfolio managers value, whilst also providing iron ore exposure. 

The Montgomery Fund and the Montgomery [Private] Fund owns shares in Dettera Royalties. This blog was prepared 19 February 2024 with the information we have today, and our view may change. It does not constitute formal advice or professional investment advice. If you wish to trade Deterra Royalties, you should seek financial advice. 

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending