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Peter Schiff: “Disinflation is transitory”

With the CME FedWatch Tool showing a likelihood of over 99% of a 25-bps hike in the first meeting of the year, the FOMC delivered exactly as expected,…

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With the CME FedWatch Tool showing a likelihood of over 99% of a 25-bps hike in the first meeting of the year, the FOMC delivered exactly as expected, raising the federal funds rate to 4.50% – 4.75%.

This move places rates at their highest levels in over 15 years, following accelerated tightening including four consecutive hikes of 75 bps in 2022.

Governor Powell tried to maintain his hawkish tone, noting,

…we will need substantially more evidence to be confident that inflation is on a sustained downward path…very premature to declare victory or to think we really got this.

With inflation still near four-decade highs, the committee stated that tightening would be ongoing (unless disinflation became even sharper).

However, this message did not seem to find many takers.

On the contrary, markets ended higher yesterday, with the S&P gaining 1.05%.

Bond yields declined, the greenback fell to a low of 101, and gold breached $1,970 levels.

Although the Fed’s direction and magnitude were widely expected, the choice to downshift after a single half-percentage hike in December 2022 may be the first admission that the loosening of the monetary environment is near.

From ‘pace’ to ‘extent’

The authors of a research paper entitled ‘Have Lags in Monetary Policy Transmission Shortened?‘ published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, wrote,

Our results suggest the peak deceleration in inflation may occur about one year after policy tightening.

The Fed having begun tightening during Q1 2022, may be wary that the combined effect of lags could well be upon us and may expose underlying fragilities in the economic system.

Unsurprisingly, in the FOMC statement, policymakers acknowledged the uncertainty around lags, noting,

In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy…

Rick Rule, a well-known commodities investor, and formerly the President and CEO of Sprott US Holdings, warned,

…it may be that we have not yet felt the hard punch of the interest rate rises.

Crucially, the Fed altered the use of the word ‘pace’ and replaced it with ‘extent’ in the above text, a clear sign that policy uncertainty has risen, and the current tightening cycle may have run its course.

In response to the Fed’s December meeting, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence, shared similar concerns around the ‘compressed lag effect’, commentary on which can be found here.

Job market (ill-) health

Perceived tightness in the labour market has been central to the FOMC’s narrative around rate hikes.

Mike Shedlock, a well-known blogger, who goes by Mishtalk, has for several months made the case that employment is weaker than U3 unemployment and headline nonfarm payrolls would suggest.

Source: US FRED Database

But with the steep fall in the blue line, what gives?

For starters, labour participation rates have been on a downtrend since the GFC.

There has also been a mass exodus of workers since the onset of covid, while full-time roles plummeted by nearly half a million in the back half of 2022.

Part-time employees and gig workers, many of whom would prefer full-time work, surveys show, are the main ones propping up employment figures.

Some of these key factors were expanded upon in an earlier article on the state of the labour market for Invezz.

Barely two weeks ago, December data showed that 35,000 temporary workers were let go (an explainer is available in a piece on the Employment Cost Index from earlier in the week), marking the sharpest decline since early 2021.

Although job openings headed higher according to a report by the BLS published yesterday, layoffs were up as well, rising 15% YoY, particularly in sectors sensitive to interest rates.

Inflation uncontained?

Peter Schiff, Chief Economist & Global Strategist at Euro-Pacific Capital, believes that given the unprecedented stimulus post-2008 as well as fiscal injections amid the pandemic, rate hikes themselves have not been as effective as claimed.

For instance, credit card debt has risen to above $16 trillion in Q32022, while the savings rate has crashed to nearly an all-time low of 2.3%.

Manufacturing (discussed here) remains lacklustre, adding to the central bank’s list of woes.

Along with other factors such as the deep fall in retail sales, the prolonged inversion of the yield curve and rising recession risks, the Fed may be forced into cutting rates later in the year.

Given the weakness in these indicators, the overstated strength of the jobs market, and elevated auto, consumer and mortgage debt, the USA may be looking at a much deeper recession than anticipated.

If the FOMC were to pivot, Schiff expects,

Inflation is going to get much worse…. disinflation is transitory.

Drawing on an admittedly small sample size, the current round of disinflation has commenced extraordinarily quickly and perhaps unsustainably so.

Here  and here, I argued that,

In the seventies and eighties, US consumer price inflation breached 8% on two separate occasions. First, from 1973 to 1975, it stayed above 8% for 23 consecutive months. In the second case, between 1978 and 1982, this lasted a mammoth 41 consecutive months.

In comparison, during 2022, inflation dipped back below 8% within 7 months and has now declined to 6.5%.

Outlook

Given possibly weaker-than-acknowledged labour data, savings shortage and the optimistic response of financial markets in the aftermath of Powell’s speech, monetary authorities may have indeed ceased the tightening cycle.

If so, cuts would likely be unavoidable by Q2 or Q3, meaning that inflation could be reignited (perhaps ferociously).

To get a more comprehensive picture of the labour market position, investors will be closely watching tomorrow’s jobs report.

The post Peter Schiff: “Disinflation is transitory” appeared first on Invezz.

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As We Sell Off Our Strategic Oil Reserves, Ponder This

As We Sell Off Our Strategic Oil Reserves, Ponder This

Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

One of Biden’s answers to combating…

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As We Sell Off Our Strategic Oil Reserves, Ponder This

Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

One of Biden's answers to combating higher gas prices has been to tap into America's oil reserves. While I was never a fan of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) program, it does have a place in our toolbox of weapons. We can use the reserve to keep the country running if outside oil supplies are cut off. Still, considering how out of touch with reality Washington has become, we can only imagine the insane types of services it would deem essential next time an oil shortage occurs.

Sadly, some of these reserves found their way into the export market and ended up in China. We now have proof that the President's son Hunter had a Chinese Communist Party member as his assistant while dealing with the Chinese. Apparently, he played a role in the shipping of American natural gas to China in 2017. It seems the Biden family was promising business associates that they would be rewarded once Biden became president. Biden's actions could be viewed as those of a traitor or at least disqualify him from being President.

The following information was contained in a letter from House Oversight Committee ranking member James Comer, R-Ky. to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen dated Sept. 20. 

"The President has not only misled the American public about his past foreign business transactions, but he also failed to disclose that he played a critical role in arranging a business deal to sell American natural resources to the Chinese while planning to run for President.”

Joe Biden, Comer said, was a business partner in the arrangement and had office space to work on the deal, and a firm he managed received millions from his Chinese partners ahead of the anticipated venture. While part of what Comer stated had previously been reported in the news, the letter, cited whistleblower testimonies, as well as emails, a corporate PowerPoint presentation, and a screenshot of encrypted messages. These as well as  bank documents that committee Republicans obtained suggest Biden’s knowledge and involvement in the plan dated back to at least 2017.

The big point here is;

  • The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was established in 1975 due to the 1973 oil embargo, is now at its lowest level since December 1983.

In December 1975, with memories of gas lines fresh on the minds of Americans following the 1973 OPEC oil embargo, Congress established the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). It was designed “to reduce the impact of severe energy supply interruptions.” What are the implications of depleting the SPR and is it still important?

The U.S. government began to fill the reserve and it hit its high point in 2010 at around 726.6 million barrels. Since December 1984, this is the first time the level has been lower than 450 million barrels. Draining the SPR has been a powerful tool for the administration in its effort to tame the price of gasoline. It also signaled a "new era" of intervention on the part of the White House. 

This brings front-and-center questions concerning the motivation of those behind this action. One of the implications of Biden's war on high oil prices is that it has short-circuited the fossil investment/supply development process.  Capital expenditures among the five largest oil and gas companies have fallen as the price of oil has come under fire. The current under-investment in this sector is one of the reasons oil prices are likely to take a big jump in a few years. Production from existing wells is expected to rapidly fall.

The Supply Of Oil Is Far More Constant And Inelastic Than Demand

It is important to remember when it comes to oil, the supply is far more constant and inelastic than the demand. This means that it takes time and investment to bring new wells online while demand can rapidly change. This happened during the pandemic when countries locked down and told their populations and told them to stay at home. This resulted in the price of oil temporarily going negative because there was nowhere to store it.

Draining oil from the strategic reserve is a short-sighted and dangerous choice that will impact America's energy security at times of global uncertainty. In an effort to halt inflationary forces, Biden released a huge amount of crude oil from the SPR to artificially suppress fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections. 

To date, Biden has dumped more SPR on the market than all previous presidents combined reducing the reserves to levels not seen since the early 1980s. In spite of how I feel about the inefficiencies of this program, it does serve a vital role. It is difficult to underestimate the importance of a country's ability to rapidly increase its domestic flow of oil. This defensive action protects its economy and adds to its resilience. 

Biden's actions have put the whole country at risk. Critics of his policy pointed out the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was designed for use in an emergency not as a tool to manipulate elections. Another one of Biden's goals may be to bring about higher oil prices to reduce its use and accelerate the use of high-cost green energy.

Either way, Biden's war on oil has not made America's energy policies more efficient or the country stronger.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/25/2023 - 18:30

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The Disinformation-Industrial Complex Vs Domestic Terror

The Disinformation-Industrial Complex Vs Domestic Terror

Authored by Ben Weingarten via RealClearInvestigations.com,

Combating disinformation…

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The Disinformation-Industrial Complex Vs Domestic Terror

Authored by Ben Weingarten via RealClearInvestigations.com,

Combating disinformation has been elevated to a national security imperative under the Biden administration, as codified in its first-of-its-kind National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism, published in June 2021.  

That document calls for confronting long-term contributors to domestic terrorism.

In connection therewith, it cites as a key priority “addressing the extreme polarization, fueled by a crisis of disinformation and misinformation often channeled through social media platforms, which can tear Americans apart and lead some to violence.” 

Media literacy specifically is seen as integral to this effort. The strategy adds that: “the Department of Homeland Security and others are either currently funding and implementing or planning evidence–based digital programming, including enhancing media literacy and critical thinking skills, as a mechanism for strengthening user resilience to disinformation and misinformation online for domestic audiences.” 

Previously, the Senate Intelligence Committee suggested, in its report on “Russian Active Measures Campaigns and Interference in the 2016 Election” that a “public initiative—propelled by Federal funding but led in large part by state and local education institutions—focused on building media literacy from an early age would help build long-term resilience to foreign manipulation of our democracy.” 

In June 2022, Democrat Senator Amy Klobuchar introduced the Digital Citizenship and Media Literacy Act, which – citing the Senate Intelligence Committee’s report – would fund a media literacy grant program for state and local education agencies, among other entities. 

NAMLE and Media Literacy Now, both recipients of State Department largesse, endorsed the bill. 

Acknowledging explicitly the link between this federal counter-disinformation push, and the media literacy education push, Media Literacy Now wrote in its latest annual report that ... 

... the federal government is paying greater attention to the national security consequences of media illiteracy.

The Department of Homeland Security is offering grants to organizations to improve media literacy education in communities across the country. Meanwhile, the Department of Defense is incorporating media literacy into standard troop training, and the State Department is funding media literacy efforts abroad.

These trends are important for advocates to be aware of as potential sources of funding as well as for supporting arguments around integrating media literacy into K-12 classrooms. 

When presented with notable examples of narratives corporate media promoted around Trump-Russia collusion, and COVID-19, to justify this counter-disinformation campaign, Media Literacy Now president Erin McNeill said: “These examples are disappointing.”

The antidote, in her view is, “media literacy education because it helps people not only recognize the bias in their news sources and seek out other sources, but also to demand and support better-quality journalism.” (Emphasis McNeill’s)

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/25/2023 - 17:30

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Disney World Event Gives Florida Gov. DeSantis the Middle Finger

Walt Disney’s CEO Bob Iger has shown no willingness to back down in the face of the governor’s efforts to campaign against diversity training.

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Walt Disney's CEO Bob Iger has shown no willingness to back down in the face of the governor's efforts to campaign against diversity training.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has made Disney World, one of his state's largest employers, the target of his so-called war on woke. 

At the root of the dispute are former Walt Disney (DIS) - Get Free Report CEO Bob Chapek's remarks opposing the Republican governor's new law, which limits the ability of educators to discuss gender identity and sexual orientation with children.

Labeled the Don't Say Gay bill, the law met with huge pushback from Disney employees, who had criticized Chapek for initially not speaking out against the bill.

That led the then-Disney boss to take a direct stand against the governor's actions, which in turn led DeSantis to strip the company of its special tax status.  

DON'T MISS: Huge Crowds Force Disney World to Make Big Changes

DeSantis has decided to use Disney as the center of his political-theater culture war because it's an easy, and nonmoving, target. The company can't pack up Disney World and move it to New York, Massachusetts, or some other liberal bastion, so it mostly has to take whatever the governor dishes out.

But while DeSantis wants to use Disney as a target, he's mostly playing to the cameras; clearly, he's not actually looking to take down the largest single-site employer in the U.S. Disney World generates tens of thousands of jobs, pays the state a lot of money. and brings in billions of tourism dollars -- many of which are spent outside its gates in the broader Florida economy.

Image source: Shutterstock/TheStreet Illustration

Disney CEO Iger Uses Actions, Not Words

Disney CEO Bob Iger understands that actions speak louder than words and words can come back to haunt you.

The returned Mouse House boss has not called out DeSantis, nor did he fight the governor's takeover of its Reedy Creek Improvement District.

On paper, Disney World appears to have lost its right to self-govern. That's true, but it doesn't mean much because it's not as if the state -- even DeSantis's handpicked cronies who now oversee the former Reedy Creek Improvement District -- intend to actually get in Disney's way. The company prints money for the state.

So, that's why Iger -- who had publicly spoken against the Don't Say Gay bill when he was a private citizen and not Disney CEO, has not called out DeSantis. A speech decrying the governor's actions, pointing out that they “put vulnerable, young LGBTQ people in jeopardy,” as he said before taking the CEO job back, would not help Disney.

Instead, Iger has let his company's actions speak. 

Disney World plans to host a "major conference promoting lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender rights in the workplace" at the Disney World Resort this September, the Tampa Bay Times reported.

Disney Boldly Challenges DeSantis

Disney World will host the annual Out & Equal Workplace Summit in September.

"The largest LGBTQ+ conference in the world, with more than 5,000 attendees every year. It brings together executives, ERG leaders and members, and HR and DEI professionals and experts -- all working for LGBTQ+ equality," the event's organizer, Out & Equal, said on its website. 

"Over more than 20 years, Summit has grown to become the preferred place to network and share strategies that create inclusive workplaces, where everyone belongs and where LGBTQ+ employees can be out and thrive." 

The Tampa Bay Times called simply hosting the event "a defiant display of the limits of DeSantis’s campaign against diversity training."

Disney World has hosted the event previously and the company has a relationship with Out & Equal going back many years.

Instead of giving a speech and becoming even more of a right-wing-media talking point, Iger showed his employees where Disney stands through his actions. It's a smart choice by a seasoned executive not to become an actor in DeSantis's political theater.

The Florida governor wants to be perceived as battling 'woke" Disney without actually hurting his state's relationship with the company. The newspaper described exactly how that works when it looked at the new government powers the state has taken from the theme park giant.

The subsequent legislation left most of Disney’s special powers in place despite the governor’s attempt to dissolve the district. The conservative members the governor appointed to the board hinted at the first meeting of the new board that they would exercise leverage over Disney, such as prohibiting COVID-19 restrictions at Disney World. But legal experts have said that the new board’s authority has no control over Disney content.

DeSantis wants a culture war, or at least one that'll play out in the media. Iger knows better and has played the situation perfectly.   

 

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