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Pento Warns The Fiscal & Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived

Pento Warns The Fiscal & Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived

Authored by Michael Pento via PentoPort.com,

According to Doug Ramsey of the Leuthold Group, 334 companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange recently hit a 52-week low, more…

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Pento Warns The Fiscal & Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived

Authored by Michael Pento via PentoPort.com,

According to Doug Ramsey of the Leuthold Group, 334 companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange recently hit a 52-week low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year highs. That’s happened only three other times in history — all of them occurring in December 1999.

How did we get back to the precipice of the year 2000, where tech stocks plunged 80% and the S&P 500 lost 50% of its value over the ensuing two years? Well, start off with the fact that the amount of new money created by our central bank in the past 14 years is $8 trillion. That, by the way, is an increase in base money supply only and does not include all of the new money created by our debt-based monetary system. So, from 1913 to 2008, the Fed created $800 billion. And, it took from 2008 until today—just 14 years–for it to have created $8.8 trillion in base money supply. Is there really any wonder why inflation has now become a salient issue, especially for the middle and lower classes, and why the stock market is now set up for a meltdown similar to the NASDAQ collapse of two decades ago?

Some might claim that the bubble in the stock market was much different in 2000 than it is today. They are correct. The overvaluation 22 years ago pales in comparison to today. With its record high P/S ratio of 3.5, as opposed to just 1.8 back in 2000. And the mind-numbing record high 210% TMC/GDP ratio, which is an incredible 68 percentage points ahead of where it ascended to 22 years ago.

Ok, so the stock market is much more expensive today than at any other time in history, but what will the catalyst be to set it tumbling off the cliff? Last week I talked about the monetary cliff coming in the next two months. To review: The Fed will wind down its record-breaking $120 billion per month counterfeiting scheme to zero dollars in that timeframe. This Q.E. involved the process of handing newly created money to banks, consumers, and businesses to boost consumption. But by ending this flow of new money, the Fed will also end its tacit support for the municipal bond market, primary dealers, money market mutual funds, REPO market, International SWAP lines, ETF market, primary and secondary corporate debt markets, commercial paper market, and support for student, auto and credit card loans. All of which were directly supported by Jerome Powell’s with the Fed’s latest Q.E. program.

But it doesn’t end there. Mr. Powell cannot be content with just ending Q.E., not with CPI running at 6.8%! Therefore, very soon after Q.E. is terminated, interest rates are heading higher, and the balance sheet of the Fed must start shrinking. However, an occasional 25-bps rate hike here or there won’t cut it. He has to hike rates by 680-bps just to get to a zero percent real Fed Funds Rate. Now, of course, Powell doesn’t intend to hike monetary policy that much because he is fully aware it would collapse the whole artificial market construct well before he gets anywhere close to that level. But the point here is that the FOMC has lost the luxury of being able to delay and dither as it has in the past because inflation is running at a 40-year high. Hence, the Fed will need to hike rates rather aggressively until inflation, the economy, or asset prices come crashing down. But since all three are so closely linked together, they will likely all cascade simultaneously.

And, now this week, I want to shed some new light on the concurrent fiscal cliff and shoot a hole through Wall Street’s excess savings B.S. As most of you are already aware, I’ve been pretty clear about the negative consumption effects that will result from the ending of $6 trillion in government handouts over the previous two years. This massive and unprecedented largess caused the savings rate in the U.S. to jump from 7.8% in January 2020 to 33.8% by April of the same year. However, that savings rate has now collapsed back down to 6.9%—below its pre-pandemic level. But what about the stash of savings consumers are sitting on that is supposed to carry GDP ever-higher this year?

Well, it appears that the rainy day fund is dwindling quickly. According to the N.Y. Times and Moody’s Analytics, the excess savings among many working- and middle-class households could be exhausted as soon as early 2022. This would not only reduce their financial cushions but also potentially affect the economy since consumer spending has risen to become nearly 70% of GDP.

We have already seen multiple pandemic-era federal aid programs expire last September, including the massive federal supplement to unemployment benefits. Now, with the Expanded Child Income tax credit having expired, which gave up to $300 per child under 6, and up to $250 per child ages 7 to 17 over the period from July to December, the fiscal challenges have become salient for many Americans.

But what about that pile of savings? Estimates are that it now amounts to around $2.0 trillion (8.5% of GDP). It’s mostly in the hands of the very rich, who are savers and have a much lower marginal propensity to consume than those in the middle and lower classes. According to a study from Oxford Economics, 80% of that savings is in the hands of the top 20% of earners, and 42% went to the top 1%. Again, this is important because it is the middle and lower classes that are responsible for the majority of consumption. So, how is this economically-crucial cohort doing? Well, in addition to getting hurt by inflation and falling real wages, they are running out of their stimulus hoard quickly. According to a recent study done by JP Morgan Chase, households making $68,896 per year or less only have an extra $517 in their checking accounts on average compared with their pre-pandemic level. As unimpressive as that sounds, add in the fact that people don’t eat into their savings with the same zeal that they spend a fresh government handout, and you can see that so-called “mountain of savings” Wall Street loves to tout isn’t much more than a molehill.

When you factor in the massive fiscal and monetary cliffs together with the most overvalued stock market in history, you have the recipe for potential unprecedented stock market chaos, which should be front-end loaded in ‘22. If your retirement savings is with a deep state of Wall Street firm, you hold some mix of stocks and bonds that is set on autopilot. Their fate should be the same as the Hindenburg and Titanic.

*  *  *

Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, produces the weekly podcast called, “The Mid-week Reality Check”  and Author of the book “The Coming Bond Market Collapse.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/14/2022 - 11:10

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Government

Central Illinois named US Tech Hub for biomanufacturing by Biden-Harris administration

URBANA, Ill. — President Joe Biden announced Monday that the Illinois Fermentation and Agriculture Biomanufacturing Hub (iFAB) is among 31 designated…

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URBANA, Ill. — President Joe Biden announced Monday that the Illinois Fermentation and Agriculture Biomanufacturing Hub (iFAB) is among 31 designated Regional Innovation and Technology Hubs (Tech Hubs) by the U.S. Economic Development Administration (EDA) — recognizing Central Illinois as a globally competitive center for innovation and job creation in biomanufacturing.

Credit: Anna Longworth Photography

URBANA, Ill. — President Joe Biden announced Monday that the Illinois Fermentation and Agriculture Biomanufacturing Hub (iFAB) is among 31 designated Regional Innovation and Technology Hubs (Tech Hubs) by the U.S. Economic Development Administration (EDA) — recognizing Central Illinois as a globally competitive center for innovation and job creation in biomanufacturing.

Led by the Integrated Bioprocessing Research Laboratory (IBRL) at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, the iFAB consortium includes 30 partner organizations representing academic, industry, government, and nonprofit partners committed to catalyzing industry growth in Champaign, Piatt, and Macon counties. 

“The iFAB designation leverages IBRL’s five years of operational success. Companies come here to prove their technologies, and our aim is for them to remain in the region and establish early manufacturing facilities to progress from ideation to commercialization,” said iFAB principal investigator Beth Conerty, the Associate Director of Business Development at IBRL, part of the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences and The Grainger College of Engineering

The EDA Tech Hubs program was authorized by the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 with the goal to boost economic growth, spur job creation, and ensure U.S. national security. 

The precision fermentation industry is projected to reach $11.8 billion by 2028, with the potential to generate one million jobs by 2030. The EDA’s Tech Hub designation elevates the reputation and confidence needed to attract more funding, resources, companies, and talent in this space to Central Illinois. 

Precision fermentation is a growing area of biomanufacturing that can turn local feedstocks, mainly corn and soybeans, into a variety of goods — including textiles, biofuels, food ingredients, polymers, pigments, and more domestically. This sustainable, scalable, and biological manufacturing process relies on microbes to convert sugars into high-value products.

“Our position as a regional leader in precision fermentation is solidified by this designation,” said iFAB partner Nicole Bateman, president of the Economic Development Corporation of Decatur & Macon County. “Receiving federal recognition unlocks opportunities for infrastructure development and business investment and attraction, which results in job creation. We have been partnering across the corridor informally for several years, and the momentum in the region will be enhanced by this formal designation.”  

As a designated Tech Hub, iFAB has cleared the first phase of the Tech Hubs program and qualifies to apply for phase two funding of $45 million to $70 million. EDA anticipates that between five and 10 of the 31 Tech Hubs will receive phase two funding. 

If successful, phase two funding would support several iFAB initiatives to expand the Central Illinois precision fermentation industry:  

  • Support capital projects to create more multi-use facilities and infrastructure to support growth-stage bioprocessing and fermentation companies; lab space is needed to scale high-growth ventures in the region.
  • Expand workforce development training programs at Parkland College and Richland Community College in partnership with industry partners to provide relevant job skills.
  • Broaden the biomanufacturing entrepreneurial ecosystem through efforts at University of Illinois Research Park and the Illinois AgTech Accelerator to fuel startups.
  • Attract companies through the Economic Development Corporations (EDC) in Champaign County and Decatur & Macon County in partnership with the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity (DCEO) and Intersect Illinois. 

“This historic announcement is a result of our regional and statewide collaboration and will enhance business attraction to our region, expanding our ever-growing AgTech footprint,” said iFAB partner Carly McCrory-McKay, executive director of the Champaign County EDC. “We’re thrilled about this Tech Hub designation for our communities and will work with our partners to ensure that the iFAB AgTech Corridor—made up of Champaign, Macon, and Piatt counties—becomes the global leader and innovation center in biomanufacturing. This is a game changer for innovation and economic growth, and we’re proud to say that iFAB is a Tech Hub.”

iFAB’s Tech Hub designation is a return on investment by the State of Illinois. “IBRL was a strategic experiment that has shown proof of concept,” Conerty said. “We have been overwhelmed by the response for equipment, infrastructure, and expertise. We are now bursting at the seams with a waitlist for equipment and processes. With more support, we could be doing so much more.” 

The consortium’s industry partners include ADM and Boston Bioprocess, who both have operations at Research Park, as well as Primient and Clarkson Grain Company

iFAB is one of two designated Tech Hubs in Illinois; the second is the Chicago-based The Bloch Tech Hub that focuses on quantum technologies. Both coalitions are part of Innovate Illinois, a strategic initiative led by Governor JB Pritzker to establish Tech Hubs in the state. 

“As one of America’s leading research universities, the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign solves problems and helps to power our nation’s economy,” said U. of I. Chancellor Robert E. Jones. “These TechHub designations in Illinois unite our strengths with our academic, industrial, community, and government partners to imagine a bright future for communities across the region.” 


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Bacteria can enhance host insect’s fertility with implications for disease control

Mosquitoes and other insects can carry human diseases such as dengue and Zika virus, but when those insects are infected with certain strains of the bacteria…

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Mosquitoes and other insects can carry human diseases such as dengue and Zika virus, but when those insects are infected with certain strains of the bacteria Wolbachia, this bacteria reduces levels of disease in their hosts. Humans currently take advantage of this to control harmful virus populations across the world.

Credit: Shelbi Russell, UC Santa Cruz.

Mosquitoes and other insects can carry human diseases such as dengue and Zika virus, but when those insects are infected with certain strains of the bacteria Wolbachia, this bacteria reduces levels of disease in their hosts. Humans currently take advantage of this to control harmful virus populations across the world.

New research led at UC Santa Cruz reveals how the bacteria strain Wolbachia pipientis also enhances the fertility of the insects it infects, an insight that could help scientists increase the populations of mosquitoes that do not carry human disease.

“With insect population replacement approaches, they keep all the mosquitos and just add Wolbachia so that fewer viruses are carried in those mosquitoes and transmitted to humans when they bite them — and it’s working really, really well,” said Shelbi Russell, an assistant professor of biomolecular engineering at UCSC who led this research. “If there is some fertility benefit of Wolbachia that could evolve over time, then we could use that to select for higher rates of mosquitos that suppress our viral transmission.”

These results were detailed in a new paper led by Russell, published today in the journal PLOS Biology. UCSC Professor of Molecular, Cell, and Developmental Biology William Sullivan is the paper’s senior author.

Humans and Wolbachia 

Different strains of Wolbachia bacteria naturally infect a number of different animals worldwide, such as mosquitos, butterflies, and fruit flies. Once they infect an insect, the bacteria are able to manipulate the reproduction and development of their host to increase their own population. Humans take advantage of this to control the population size of insects that carry diseases that threaten us. 

Wolbachia have developed a mechanism to poison the sperm of infected males so that if the male mates with an uninfected female, most of the potential offspring die at the very first cell division, and the rest are lost soon after. Humans have taken advantage of this to kill off insect populations. 

However, research shows that later down the line once they have killed off as many uninfected hosts as possible, Wolbachia switch their evolutionary strategy to increase population levels of infected hosts. Understanding how this happens is important for avoiding unexpected consequences of human efforts to control insect populations. 

“We need to understand all of these factors and their evolutionary potential if we’re going to be releasing bacteria into new ecosystems,” Russell said. “They’re evolving in real time, so we need to understand where these trajectories are going.”

Beyond disease prevention, controlling insect populations and range via bacteria could be an effective mechanism for crop security in the face of the changing climate.  

Understanding increased fertility

The new results show that Wolbachia pipientis, which is native to fruit flies, has evolved to increase the fertility, and therefore the population size, of its fruit fly host. Previous research has found that the Wolbachia pipientis achieves this by manipulating a protein in fruit flies called Meiotic-P26 that affects fertility, but how exactly this happens was unclear.

To investigate, Russell and her colleagues bred fruit flies with various defects affecting Mei-P26, which caused them to have reduced fertility. These defects occasionally occur naturally in the wild, but are hard to track in that setting. The researchers then examined what happened when they infected the flies with Wolbachia pipientis.

They found that Wolbachia infection restored the fruit fly’s fertility, enabling them to produce even more offspring than uninfected flies. The researchers found that Wolbachia can essentially undo gene defects in their host that would otherwise cause the population to go extinct. The Wolbachia rescue their host population through several strategies, including restoring fruit fly stem cells and ensuring that egg cells properly develop.

In further experiments, the researchers also found that, beyond rescuing fruit flies with defects, the Wolbachia pipientis infection also enhances the health and fertility of fruit flies without defects, resulting in higher egg lay and hatch rates for those insects. 

Wolbachia in the lab

Russell focuses on Wolbachia because it and its fruit fly hosts are relatively easy to keep alive and reproduce in the lab. Oftentimes when scientists study bacteria, their efforts are hindered because either the host, the bacteria, or both are difficult to keep alive in the lab setting — even research into common bacteria important to humans such as Chlamydia are slowed by this problem. Wolbachia and their fruit fly hosts offer a rare opportunity to understand how bacteria can change the DNA and biological processes of their host.

“Through studying this system, I can learn a lot about how these weird bacteria work and how they integrate with host biology,” Russell said. “Bacteria are able to hop into these eukaryotes and leverage some of those mechanisms that their ancestors didn’t even contain the genes for. It’s a really fascinating thing in general, and it’s cool that we can leverage this for biological control applications.”

Russell and her lab will continue to hone in on the specific changes that occur in the genomes and gene expression of host species, and look at the fertility benefits that Wolbachia may bring to their hosts in other insect populations.

Russell led this research primarily during her time as a postdoctoral scholar in Sullivan’s lab, where she was supported by the UC Santa Cruz Chancellor’s Postdoctoral Fellowship and funding from the National Institutes of Health. 


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International

Raining cats and dogs: research finds global precipitation patterns a driver for animal diversity

Since the HMS Beagle arrived in the Galapagos with Charles Darwin to meet a fateful family of finches, ecologists have struggled to understand a particularly…

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Since the HMS Beagle arrived in the Galapagos with Charles Darwin to meet a fateful family of finches, ecologists have struggled to understand a particularly perplexing question: Why is there a ridiculous abundance of species some places on earth and a scarcity in others? What factors, exactly, drive animal diversity?

Credit: Wikimedia

Since the HMS Beagle arrived in the Galapagos with Charles Darwin to meet a fateful family of finches, ecologists have struggled to understand a particularly perplexing question: Why is there a ridiculous abundance of species some places on earth and a scarcity in others? What factors, exactly, drive animal diversity?

With access to a mammoth set of global-scale climate data and a novel strategy, a team from the Department of Watershed Sciences in Quinney College of Natural Resources and the Ecology Center identified several factors to help answer this fundamental ecological question. They discovered that what an animal eats (and how that interacts with climate) shapes Earth’s diversity.

The work was recently published in the high-impact journal Ecology Letters.

“Historically studies looking at the distribution of species across Earth’s latitudinal gradient have overlooked the role of trophic ecology — how what animals eat impacts where they are found,” said Trisha Atwood, author on the study from the Department of Watershed Sciences and the Ecology Center. “This new work shows that predators, omnivores and herbivores are not randomly scattered across the globe. There are patterns to where we find these groups of animals.”

Certain locations have an unexpected abundance of meat-eating predators — parts of Africa, Europe and Greenland. Herbivores are common in cooler areas, and omnivores tend to be more dominant in warm places. Two key factors emerged as crucial in shaping these patterns: precipitation and plant growth.

Precipitation patterns across time play a big role in determining where different groups of mammals thrive, Atwood said. Geographical areas where precipitation varies by season, without being too extreme, had the highest levels of mammal diversity.

“Keep in mind that we aren’t talking about the total amount of rain,” said Jaron Adkins, lead author on the research. “If you imagine ecosystems around the world on a scale of precipitation and season, certain places in Utah and the Amazon rainforest fall on one end with low variability — they have steady levels of precipitation throughout the year. Other regions, like southern California, have really high variability, getting about 75 percent of the annual precipitation between December and March.”

But the sweet spot for predators and herbivores fell in a middle zone between the two extremes, he said. Places like Madagascar, where precipitation patterns had an equal split between a wet season and a dry one (six months each), had the ideal ecological cocktail for promoting conditions for these two groups. Omnivore diversity tends to thrive in places with very stable climates.

The second important factor connected with mammal diversity the work uncovered was a measure of the amount of plant growth in an area, measured as “gross primary productivity.”

“It makes intuitive sense for plant-eating animals to benefit from plant growth,” Adkins said.

But this measure actually impacted carnivores most, according to the research. The strong relationship between predators and plant growth highlights the importance of an abundance of plants on an entire food chain’s structural integrity.

“It was surprising that this factor was more important for predators than omnivores and herbivores,” Atwood said. “Why this is remains a mystery.”

Although evolutionary processes are ultimately responsible for spurring differences in species, climate conditions can impact related factors — rates of evolutionary change, extinction and animal dispersal — influencing species and trait-based richness, according to the research.

Animal diversity is rapidly declining in many ecosystems around the world through habitat loss and climate change. This has negative consequences for ecosystems. Forecasting how climate change will disrupt animal systems going forward is extremely important, Atwood said, and this research is a first step in better managing future conditions for animals around the world.

“Animal diversity can act as an alarm system for the stability of ecosystems,” Atwood said. “Identifying the ecological mechanisms that help drive richness patterns provides insight for better managing and predicting how diversity could change under future climates.”

In addition to Adkins and Atwood, the research included seven authors currently or previously associated with the Department of Watershed Sciences and the Ecology Center: Edd Hammill, Umarfarooq Abdulwahab, John Draper, Marshall Wolf, Catherine McClure, Adrián González Ortiz and Emily Chavez.

 


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