Remember those warnings of an economic apocalypse in Seattle as the minimum wage was raised up to $15-16 per hour? Mark J. Perry was at the forefront of this (faulty) thesis. Having to teach Contemporary Public Affairs this semester, I was moved to return to this debate.

Here’re two figures to refresh memories about what happened.

Figure 1: Minimum wage per hour in Seattle for Schedule 1 (dark blue) and for Schedule 2 (tan), and Federal (green). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, and City of Seattle, NBER, and author’s calculations..

Figure 2: Minimum wage in 2020$ per hour in Seattle for Schedule 1 (dark blue) and for Schedule 2 (tan), and Federal (green). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, BLS, City of Seattle, NBER and author’s calculations.

From Jardim et al., “Minimum-Wage Increases and Low-Wage Employment: Evidence from Seattle,” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 14(2) (May 2022):

Seattle raised its minimum wage to as much as $11 in 2015 and as much as $13 in 2016. We use Washington State administrative data to conduct two complementary analyses of its impact. Relative to outlying regions of the state identified by the synthetic control method, aggregate employment at wages less than twice the original minimum—measured by total hours worked—declined. A portion of this reduction reflects jobs transitioning to wages above the threshold; the aggregate analysis likely overstates employment effects. Longitudinal analysis of individual Seattle workers matched to counterparts in outlying regions reveals no change in the probability of continued employment but significant reductions in hours, particularly for less experienced workers. Job turnover declined, as did hiring of new workers into low-wage jobs. Analyses suggest aggregate employment elasticities in the range of −0.2 to −2.0, concentrated on the intensive margin in the short run and largest among inexperienced workers.

Previous post on this subject, here.

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Often roasted for his metaverse tech demos, Zuckerberg appears to have blown away internet users with his latest avatar tech.

While critics have been busy writing eulogies for Meta’s metaverse dream over the last few years, Mark Zuckerberg’s latest demonstration of its photorealistic avatars shows it could be pretty far from dead after all.

Appearing on a Sept. 28 episode of the Lex Fridman podcast, Zuckerberg and the popular computer scientist engaged in a one-hour face-to-face conversation. Only, it wasn’t actually in person at all.

Instead, the entirety of Fridman and Zuckerberg’s conversation used photorealistic realistic avatars in the metaverse, facilitated through Meta’s Quest 3 headsets and noise-canceling headphones.

Here's my conversation with Mark Zuckerberg, his 3rd time on the podcast, but this time we talked in the Metaverse as photorealistic avatars. This was one of the most incredible experiences of my life. It really felt like we were talking in-person, but we were miles apart It's… pic.twitter.com/Nu8a3iYWm0

— Lex Fridman (@lexfridman) September 28, 2023

Observers often have fun ridiculing Meta for dumping billions of dollars into metaverse research only to seemingly produce cartoonish avatars and wonky-looking legs.

However, in this case, users on social media, including those from Crypto Twitter, seemed to be genuinely impressed by the sophistication of the technology.

The Metaverse has upgraded pic.twitter.com/QT1LAkjQGB

— Dexerto (@Dexerto) September 28, 2023

“Ok the metaverse is officially real,” wrote pseudonymous account Gaut, a rare moment of seemingly genuine praise from a user typically known for his satirical and sarcastic takes on current events.

“9 minutes into Lex / Mark metaverse podcast I forgot I was watching avatars,” wrote coder Jelle Prins.

Fridman alsoshared his impressions of the experience in real-time, noting how “close” Zuckerberg felt to him during the interview. Moments later, he explained how difficult it was to recognize that Zuckerberg’s avatar wasn’t his physical body.

“I’m already forgetting that you’re not real.”

The technology on display is the newest version of Codec Avatars. First revealed in 2019, Codec Avatars is one of Meta’s longest-running research projects which aims to create fully photorealistic real-time avatars that work by way of headsets with face tracking sensors.

Related: Meta refutes claims of copyright infringement in AI training

However, users may need to wait a few years before donning their own realistic avatars, said Zuckerberg, explaining that the tech used requires expensive machine learning software and full head scans by specialized equipment featuring more than 100 different cameras.

This would be, at the very least, three years away from being available to everyday consumers, he said.

Still, Zuckerberg noted that the company wants to reduce the barriers as much as possible, explaining that in the future, these scans may be achievable with a regular smartphone.

The most-recent demonstration comes just one day after Meta unveiled its answer to ChatGPT, revealing its newest AI assistant Meta AI, which is integrated across a range of unique chatbots, apps and even smart glasses.

AI Eye: Real uses for AI in crypto, Google’s GPT-4 rival, AI edge for bad employees

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We have introduced two new tables in the DecisionPoint ALERT to give an overview of trend and BIAS for the major market indexes, sectors, and industry groups that we track. The first is our Market Scoreboard, which shows the current Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Model (ITTM and LTTM) signal status. To review:

• The IT Trend Model generates a BUY Signal when the 20-day EMA crosses up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross).
• The IT Trend Model generates a NEUTRAL Signal when the 20-day EMA crosses down through the 50-day EMA (Dark Cross) above the 200-day EMA. This is a soft SELL Signal, going to cash or a hedge. It avoids being short in a bull market.
• The IT Trend Model generates a SELL Signal when the 20-day EMA crosses down through the 50-day EMA (Dark Cross) below the 200-day EMA.
• The LT Trend Model generates a BUY Signal when the 50-day EMA crosses up through the 200-day EMA (Golden Cross).
• The LT Trend Model generates a SELL Signal when the 50-day EMA crosses down through the 200-day EMA (Death Cross).

The current table shows that there is considerable stress in the intermediate-term; however, the long-term is still comfortably green for market and sector indexes. But we need to remember that the market indexes are cap-weighted, which means that they can be held aloft by large-cap stocks. The 11 sectors shown are composed solely of S&P 500 components, meaning that they will reflect the strength of that index. Industry groups, however, are not doing as well because they are less protected by the large-cap umbrella.

Next, let's look at how we determine the BIAS of a given index. First, the Silver Cross Index shows the percentage of stocks in an index that have a Silver Cross (20-day EMA above the 50-day EMA), and the Golden Cross Index shows the percentage of stocks in the index that have a Golden Cross (50-day EMA above the 200-day EMA). Next, we determine BIAS based upon the relationship of the Silver Cross Index to its 10-day EMA and the relationship of the Golden Cross Index to its 20-day EMA. When they are above, the BIAS is bullish. When they are below, the BIAS is bearish. See the chart below.

The following table shows the current intermediate-term and long-term BIAS of the market, sector, and industry group indexes we follow. Note that the picture is extremely bearish, but it is a very oversold condition, which will shift toward the positive in the event of a strong rally.

Conclusion: These new tables, available daily in the DecisionPoint ALERT, provide a quick overview of market trend and BIAS. They are intended to help focus attention on areas that may be of interest. They do not give action commands, but provide information flags to prompt assessment of the relevant charts.

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