Connect with us

International

Only The Lonely Can Play

Only The Lonely Can Play

Published

on

Tegna Portfolios Hedged

Dear fellow investors,

Great investment opportunities are lonely. History shows us the crowd behaviors to avoid and the investment market circumstances to capitalize on. We believe we are at one of the great junctures, where the crowd thinks they unequivocally know the future. Simultaneously, they have left the stocks related to the unknowns for dead. What does history tell us about situations like this? What stocks are mega-cheap based on the unknowns?

Get The Full Warren Buffett Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Warren Buffett in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

History of Sure Things

1972

Disney and Coke were sure things at the end of 1972 in the “Nifty Fifty.” At 80 times and 60 times earnings respectively, their future success seemed like a sure thing. It was lonely to not own them.  In 1982, they bottomed at nine- and six-times earnings, even though the future ended up being very bright. Hardly anyone who bought when they were thought to be a sure thing stayed for their success 20 years later.

1981

Peak oil is a repeat sure thing every 10-15 years. It was a sure thing in 1981 at $40 per barrel when energy was 29.5% of the S&P 500 Index. It was dead in 1999 at $11 per barrel and buying was very lonely. It was a sure thing in 2008 and 2014 at $146 and $115 per barrel, respectively. Now it is the deadest it has ever been with energy well less than 3% of the S&P 500 today and oil being given away at settlement recently.

Our favorite measuring tool is to go to investment industry conventions (think Schwab or Morningstar) to see which sponsors were ponying up the most to dominate the center of the floor. In 2011-2014, it was Asia and Peak Oil. Everyone was convinced that nothing could stop China’s new 500 million “middle class” citizens from dominating the world economy for decades. Oil was $115 per barrel in May of 2014 and wide asset allocators sent their clients’ money to die in emerging markets equities under the heading of diversification.

Lastly, the internet would change our life in 1999 and the growth/tech funds hogged up the center of the convention space. The “smart” people avoided the worst of it by buying Cisco, Microsoft and Intel. They were the internet “pickaxe” companies with real sales and earnings. It did limit losses to 60-90% of their portfolio instead of losing 100% on failed dot-com stocks or 95% on Sun Micro, Lucent and many others. There are business cycles in tech!

Bargains Unknowns

Source: Cypress Capital, “The Benjamin Button Bull Market”

Tech Is A Sure Thing

Now the coronavirus has come along to convince investors big and small that the largest tech companies are a sure thing and that the average person is best able to participate in it via the S&P 500 Index. Tech is a sure thing because we had nowhere else to turn during the government-dictated quarantine and shutdown. The S&P 500 is a “cross-section of America,” or so says Warren Buffett. The composition of the S&P 500 Index is approaching 40% in just the tech sector, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet combined. Looks very much like late 1999 and not a cross-section of America:

What are the knowns today?

  1. Online shopping went and is still going crazy
  2. People had nothing to do other than watch TV and communicate online in quarantine
  3. Groceries became a delight
  4. Human beings are dying from the virus

What are the unknowns?

  1. Will people gather at stores, theatres, restaurants, etc.?
  2. Will people go to stadiums for sports or concerts?
  3. Will we fly and travel?
  4. Will we trust each other to do business face-to-face?
  5. Will the virus resurface?

The price of what is known is sky high from a historical standpoint. In the S&P 500, the popular tech stocks have gone to the center of the convention area (even though the convention in May is cancelled). Growth is the most expensive relative to value as far back as it can be measured. Merrill Lynch measured it by sentiment recently:

Bargains Unknowns

Lonely Bargains Among The Unknowns

There are some lonely bargains among the unknowns:

  1. The banks are being given away. They make money from business happening and money moving. We like JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
  2. Travel has been written an unknown death sentence. Flying now is like eating burgers at Jack in the Box after the E. coli debacle! We like American Express (AXP) and Booking Holdings (BKNG).
  3. Brick and mortar shopping has been given a death sentence by the futurists. We like Simon Property Group (SPG) and Macerich (MAC).

Only the lonely can play.

Warm regards,

William Smead

The information contained in this missive represents Smead Capital Management's opinions and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice and are subject to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Bill Smead, CIO wrote this article. It should not be assumed that investing in any securities mentioned above will or will not be profitable. Portfolio composition is subject to change at any time and references to specific securities, industries and sectors in this letter are not recommendations to purchase or sell any particular security. Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk. In preparing this document, SCM has relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources. A list of all recommendations made by Smead Capital Management within the past twelve-month period is available upon request.

©2020 Smead Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved.

This Missive and others are available at www.smeadcap.com.

The post Only The Lonely Can Play appeared first on ValueWalk.

Read More

Continue Reading

International

Ancient technology turns plant-based cheese into ‘something we want to eat’

Credit: Photo: Department of Food Science To produce plant-based cheeses that feel and taste like dairy cheese, scientists have their sights set on fermentation….

Published

on

Credit: Photo: Department of Food Science

To produce plant-based cheeses that feel and taste like dairy cheese, scientists have their sights set on fermentation. In a new research result, University of Copenhagen scientists demonstrate the potential of fermentation for producing climate-friendly cheeses that people want to eat. 

Nearly thirty kilos of cheese are eaten by the average dairy-loving Dane every year. But increasing pressure on Earth’s resources and climate change call for our food system to turn in a more plant-based direction. As a result, scientists are looking into how to transform protein-rich plants like peas and beans into a new generation of non-dairy cheeses that possess the similar sensory properties as the dairy-based ones that humans have enjoyed for thousands of years.

Several plant-based cheeses are already on the market. The challenge is that plant proteins behave differently than milk proteins when trying to make cheese from them. To meet this challenge, producers add starch or coconut oil to harden plant cheeses, as well as an array of flavourants to make them taste like cheese.

But it turns out that this can be done with the help of nature’s smallest creatures. In a new research result from the University of Copenhagen’s Department of Food Science, researcher Carmen Masiá has succeeded in developing plant-based cheeses made from yellow pea protein with a firm texture and improved aroma profile. She was able to do so by using the same natural fermentation process with bacteria that we have used with cheeses made from milk for thousands of years.

“Fermentation is an incredibly powerful tool to develop flavour and texture in plant-based cheeses. In this study, we show that bacteria can serve to develop firmness in non-dairy cheese in a very short period of time while reducing the bean-like aroma of yellow pea protein, which is used as the main and only protein source,” explains Carmen Masiá. 

Fresh cheese after eight hours

The result builds upon a research result from last year by the same researcher, who found that yellow pea protein constituted a good “protein base” for making fermented plant-based cheese. In the new result, the researcher examined twenty four bacterial combinations made from bacterial cultures supplied by the biotech company Chr. Hansen, where Carmen Masiá is completing her Industrial PhD.

“The whole point of this study has been to combine the commercially-available bacterial cultures that are suitable for the fermentation of a plant-based raw material, and test them in a pea protein matrix to develop both taste and texture that would be suitable for a cheese-like product. And, even if some bacterial combinations performed better than others, all of them actually provided firm gels and reduced beaniness in the samples” says the researcher.

To study the behavior of the bacterial combinations, the scientist inoculated them in a protein base made of yellow pea protein. After only eight hours of incubation, the result was a firm “cheese-like gel” reminiscent of a fresh soft white cheese.

“All bacterial blends produced firm gels, which means that one can get a fermentation-induced gel without necessarily adding starch or coconut oil to the base. From an aroma perspective, we had two goals: To reduce the compounds that characterize the beaniness of yellow peas, and to produce compounds that are normally found in dairy cheese. Here we saw that some bacteria were better at producing certain volatile compounds than others, but that they all worked great to reduce beaniness – which is a very positive outcome. Furthermore, all blends acquired dairy aroma notes to different degrees” explains Carmen Masiá.

Taste and feeling is everything

The researcher points out there is still a way to go to before achieving this plant-based cheese, but that research is on the right track. According to her, tailored bacterial compositions and cultures must be developed in order to achieve the optimal cheese-like characteristics. Furthermore, the plant-based cheese might need to mature over time so that it develops flavor and character, just as dairy-based cheeses do.

Finally, the new generation of fermented plant-based cheeses must be judged by consumers, so that the flavour is perfected. All in all, this is to make plant-based cheeses so delicious that people seek them out and purchase them.

“The most challenging thing for now is that, while there are a lot of people who would like to eat plant-based cheese, they aren’t satisfied with how it tastes and feels in the mouth. In the end, this means that no matter how sustainable, nutritious, etc. a food product is, people aren’t interested in buying it if it doesn’t provide a good experience when consumed,” says Carmen Masiá, who adds:

“One needs to remember that dairy cheese production has been studied over many years, so it’s not something that we can just mimic overnight with totally different raw materials. Nevertheless, there are many scientists and companies out there doing great progress in the field; I hope that we will get closer to making non-dairy cheeses that taste good over the next few years. We are getting there.”

The study was conducted in collaboration between the Department of Food Science and microbial ingredients supplier Chr. Hansen, a bioscience company that produces ingredients for the food and pharmaceutical industries, among other things. 

What is fermentation:

Fermentation is an ancient technique which originated in China. Today, it is used to make beer, wine, cheese, pharmaceuticals and much more. Fermented foods are preserved by initiating a fermentation process in which natural lactic acid bacteria and enzymes are formed. This is done as microorganisms convert sugars in the selected food into lactic acid, acetic acid and carbon dioxide. This makes food acidic and prevents the growth of putrefactive and pathogenic bacteria.

The first textual evidence of cabbage fermentation is found in China’s oldest collection of poems, Shi Jing (Book of the Odes), which dates back to approximately 600 BC.

About the study:

  • The researchers tested twenty four different bacterial compositions on a protein base made from yellow pea protein.
  • The study shows that all of the bacterial compositions produce a firm cheese-like gel, reduced the beaniness, and produced dairy-related volatile compounds.
  • The study was conducted in collaboration between the Department of Food Science and microbial ingredients supplier Chr. Hansen, a bioscience company that manufactures microbial ingredients for the food and pharmaceutical industries.
  • The study has been published in the scientific journal Future Foods
  • The research is funded by Innovation Fund Denmark (grant 0153-00058B)

Read More

Continue Reading

International

BGI Genomics breaks new ground in Saudi Arabian precision medicine

The Saudi Society of Medical Genetics Annual Conference 2023 was held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on September 29-30, 2023. As the most authoritative academic…

Published

on

The Saudi Society of Medical Genetics Annual Conference 2023 was held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on September 29-30, 2023. As the most authoritative academic conference on precision medicine in the Kingdom, this conference attracted global experts worldwide.

Credit: BGI Genomics

The Saudi Society of Medical Genetics Annual Conference 2023 was held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on September 29-30, 2023. As the most authoritative academic conference on precision medicine in the Kingdom, this conference attracted global experts worldwide.

One of the highlights of the conference was the presentation entitled “Spatial-temporal sequencing and some large-scale application of precision medicine technologies,” delivered by Dr. Louis (Renyuan) Luo, VP of BGI Genomics West Asia, at the invitation of the Saudi Society of Medical Genetics.

Dr. Luo’s presentation discussed the importance of spatiotemporal sequencing technology in the field of precision medicine and its potential large-scale applications, introduced the company’s case studies, such as the world’s first multi-center project of newborn genetic screening, large-scale regional noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT) coverage and extensive early screening project of colorectal cancer at Wuhan, Hubei province, China.

Besides sharing BGI Genomics research achievements and innovative applications in enhancing medical outcomes, Dr. Luo highlighted Genalive, BGI Genomics joint venture laboratory in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This is the result of a localized strategic partnership aiming to provide cutting-edge precision medicine services, promote development and contribute to improving the country’s healthcare system.

The success of Dr. Luo’s presentation paves the way for deepening future localized collaboration and innovation in Saudi Arabia. BGI Genomics will continue to support the realization of Saudi Vision 2030 through active participation in global cooperation and exchanges in the field of precision medicine to enhance patients’ health outcomes.

About BGI Genomics:

BGI Genomics, headquartered in Shenzhen, China, is the world’s leading integrated solutions provider of precision medicine. Our services cover more than 100 countries and regions, involving more than 2,300 medical institutions. In July 2017, as a subsidiary of BGI Group, BGI Genomics (300676.SZ) was officially listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.


Read More

Continue Reading

International

Swiss Writer Sentenced To 60 Days In Jail For Calling Journalist A “Fat Lesbian”

Swiss Writer Sentenced To 60 Days In Jail For Calling Journalist A "Fat Lesbian"

Submitted by BlueApples,

With Switzerland being the home…

Published

on

Swiss Writer Sentenced To 60 Days In Jail For Calling Journalist A "Fat Lesbian"

Submitted by BlueApples,

With Switzerland being the home of the technocratic vanguard tasked with ushering in new world order totalitarianism in the World Economic Forum, the recent sentencing of a Swiss-French writer for what could best be described as a thought crime should come as no surprise. Writer and social commentator Alain Soral was handed a 60-day jail sentence for chastising a critic of his after he took aim at their body image and sexual orientation. Soral lashed out at the journalist by calling them a "fat lesbian" among berating them with more vitriolic criticism. A Swiss court in Lausanne determined that Soral's scornful remarks constituted criminal acts of defamation, discrimination and incitement of hatred. The sentenced ultimately handed down to the Soral was a cruel irony even more surreal than any satirical polemic social commentary he could have written.

Soral's remarks occurred two years ago when he took aim at Catherine Macherel, a journalist who prided herself in using her platform to advance her advocacy for LGBT causes. The polemicist turned to Facebook to air his grievances in a video in which he described Macherel as "unhinged" for her activism. His remarks resulted in his arrest, conviction, and sentencing to 3 months in prison in April 2021. Soral's sentence was one of the first to follow sweeping legislation in 2020 which criminalized homophobic statements by broadening the scope of existing laws against discrimination to extend its protections to people on the basis of their sexual orientation. However, Soral was initially able to escape the prison time handed down to him following a successful appeal in December 2022, instead only receiving a fine as punishment.

While Soral was initially able to evade a conviction, prosecutors were relentless in their pursuit by instigating a further appeal which would ultimately lead to the maximum sentence the court could hand down. That six month prison sentence exceeded the original three month prison term he faced. The decision to penalize Soral under the full force of the law was applauded by LGBT groups across Switzerland as a testament to the success of the country's criminalization of free speech. “This court decision is an important moment for justice and rights of LGBTQI people in Switzerland,” said Murial Waeger, co-director of the lesbian activist group LOS. Waeger would go on to opine that “The conviction of Alain Soral is a strong signal that homophobic hatred cannot be tolerated in our society.”

While Soral's conviction serves as a blueprint for the weaponization of the Swiss justice system again critics of LGBT groups, the writer is somewhat of an easy target considering his controversial past and already checkered criminal record. Before moving to Switzerland, Soral was sentenced to one year in jail 2019 in his native France for an illustration he made in 2016, Soral was charged for a cartoon he published in the notoriously satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo. His contribution to the polemic publication was featured on a page titled "Chutzpah Hebdo" which bore an illustration of Charlie Chaplin in front of the Star of David asking "Shoah, where are you?" in a play on words the court ruled was a criminal act of Holocaust denial. Although Soral was sentenced to a year in prison, he failed to show up to court for the sentencing, instead announcing his plans to appeal the conviction before seeking refuge in Switzerland.

The illustration which led to Alain Soral being convicted of Holocaust denial.

Ultimately, the controversies which led to Soral fleeing France would follow him to Switzerland. Amidst expanding legislation across the whole of Europe leading to thousands of arrests for remarks made on the internet deemed to be hate speech, it appears that there is nowhere on the continent that Soral or any dissident challenging  the narratives approved by the ruling elite can find safe haven in any longer.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/04/2023 - 08:30

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending