Connect with us

International

Oil Rises After OPEC+ Keeps Production Unchanged After Launch Of Russia Price Cap

Oil Rises After OPEC+ Keeps Production Unchanged After Launch Of Russia Price Cap

Two weeks ago, oil tumbled after the WSJ reported a fake…

Published

on

Oil Rises After OPEC+ Keeps Production Unchanged After Launch Of Russia Price Cap

Two weeks ago, oil tumbled after the WSJ reported a fake news hit piece quoting "delegates" who "said" that Saudi Arabia was preparing for a 500K oil production hike. We quickly countered that this was ridiculous and if anything OPEC+ would seek further production cuts, a view which other media promptly quickly picked up. In the end, the report of an output hike (which some interpreted as a gesture of good will from Saudi crown prince MBS who had just received immunity from the Biden regime), proved to be indeed fake news, but likewise any expectations of further output cuts were dashed when earlier on Sunday OPEC+ agreed to stick to its oil-output targets just two days after G-7 nations agreed to a $60 price cap on Russian oil, despite mounting concerns about oil demand as the world in swept up by a global recession and as new Covid-related lockdowns in China and lingering uncertainty over Russia’s ability to export crude have sent the price of oil sliding.

During a virtual meeting, OPEC+ decided to rollover the production cuts of 2 million barrels a day initially agreed to in October, a move which will allow the group time to assess the market impact of the price cap on Russian oil, the delegates said.

Brent crude plunged to its lowest level since September on Nov. 28, but ended up posting its biggest weekly gain in a month.

Meanwhile, prices are responding as expected to the OPEC+ decision, helped by continuing Covid restriction relaxation in China. At the time of writing both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate were up by more than a percentage point from Friday’s close, although both remained far below $90 per barrel.

“With massive and offsetting fundamental and geopolitical risks bearing down on the oil market, ministers understandably opted to hold steady and hunker down,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Advisers LLC.

Meanwhile, Brent crude closed at $85.42 on Friday, and West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, was at $80.34, far below the $90-a-barrel level where some oil-market analysts say the group wants to see prices. Prices have come under downward pressure from Chinese Covid-19 lockdowns that have prompted concerns in OPEC of weakening oil demand.

Oil prices fell Friday after the EU agreed to the cap, as traders discounted fears the mechanism will force much Russian oil out of the market and cause a supply issue. In the end, however, it is all just posturing and the status quo remains as Russia will still sell oil to its traditional customers China and India, who will then resell some of this product to Europe and other nations.

It’s unclear to what extent those measures will curtail Russian exports. The price cap is comfortably above the $50 that the country’s flagship Urals grade of crude currently trades at, according to data from Argus Media. Yet Moscow has said it would rather cut production than sell oil to anyone that adopts the price cap. Speaking on Russian TV, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country will operate strictly in line with market conditions:

“We will sell oil and oil products to the countries that will work with us based on market conditions, even if that means we’ll have to somewhat reduce output."

Russia is “not going to use tools linked to the price cap” and is “working on a mechanism banning adoption of the price cap tools, irrespective of what level will be set."

Russian crude has traded at a steep discount this year, with Argus Media, which assesses commodity prices, pegging the price at about $48 a barrel.

The US and its G7 allies designed the price to cut into Moscow’s oil revenues while keeping Russian oil, a key part of global supply, available on the market, which of course is ridiculous, and is just an attempt by Europe at virtue signaling optics while eating its Russian oil cake too. It aims to take advantage of the concentration of key maritime services in the West to try to curb Moscow’s ability to wage war in Ukraine.

As Bloomberg notes, with these powerful forces poised to push oil markets in unpredictable directions, OPEC watchers said the group’s decision was understandable.

“OPEC+ rolled over the existing quotas as expected amid uncertainty around Russian flows following the price cap, and a weaker China,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst and co-founder at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd.

“The group will continue to monitor markets and should fundamentals deteriorate they will meet prior to June -- currently the scheduled next ministerial meeting.”

The decision by OPEC+ should hold for at least a few months. The group’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will meet again in June. The outlook could be clearer by then, and the panel has the power to call extraordinary meetings if it thinks output policy may need to change; OPEC said it was ready “to meet at any time and take immediate additional measures to address market developments” if needed. Until then three major forces will determine the future path of oil prices: a global economic slowdown which will seek to keep a lid on oil demand, and speculation about the date of China's reopening which many believe will send oil prices sharply higher. Indeed, as Bloomberg notes, as OPEC+ ministers convened their video conference, officials in Shanghai had just eased some of their Covid restrictions, joining other top-tier Chinese cities as authorities accelerate a shift toward reopening the economy after thousands of demonstrators took to the streets.

A far bigger, and longer-term driver, however is the continued lack of capital spending to boost an aging E&P infrastructure which means that over the next 5 to 10 years, oil will become increasingly scarce in a world where western government are openly hostile toward legacy energy companies.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/05/2022 - 07:21

Read More

Continue Reading

International

Why Tesla shares are faltering heading into Q3 earnings

Elon Musk’s Tesla is set to report earnings Wednesday.

Published

on

After a strong first half of the year, shares of Tesla  (TSLA) - Get Free Report have dipped recently, previously closing down 3% at $251.12, a trend that continued in pre-market trading. Still up slightly more than 100% for the year, investors are anxiously looking ahead to the earnings Tesla will report Wednesday. 

As the report edges closer, many investors, according to Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas, are not feeling very positive about the quarter. 

Related: Here's why the Tesla bears are very wrong, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives

After hosting a lunch with several prominent Tesla investors last week, Jonas wrote in a note that investor sentiment leading into earnings "skews cautious." Investors remain disinterested in Dojo and Tesla's self-driving efforts due to their unpredictability and Musk's consistently fruitless promises relevant to the topic.

Investors are additionally nervous about the coming Cybertruck; a further delay in the full production and mass delivery of the new Tesla model, Jonas said, could cause another round of price cuts, something that is feeding the negative sentiment around the stock.

Last year, a Tesla Model 3 started at $48,000. Now, the same vehicle is available for less than $40,000. 

Allison Dinner/Getty Images

"The price war in China is a high stakes poker game for Tesla as so far the 'volumes over margin' thesis has worked well to gain market share," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said, adding that "this trend cannot continue at this pace into 2024." 

Ives noted that the price war, alongside gross margins, will be a "major focus" for Tesla's outlook post-earnings. 

Jonas forecasted that Tesla's gross margin, due to said price cuts, will fall to 17.5% for the quarter, down from 19% in the first quarter and 24.3% in December 2022. Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan predicted that, assuming price cuts will continue into the fourth quarter, the company's margin could dip below 15%. 

These falling margins, Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Management said last week, will help pull Tesla closer to the margins of its fellow automakers, and further from the margins of the Big Tech companies Tesla would like to join. 

But Gary Black, managing partner of The Future Fund, which remains "hugely bullish" on the Cybertruck, noted a forecast of 40% volume growth and 39% earnings-per-share growth for the coming year. 

Related: Elon Musk makes a big move to compete with Jeff Bezos' Amazon

"Low expectations and negative sentiment going into Wednesday’s Tesla earnings probably a good thing," he added. 

Against this backdrop of cautious investor sentiment, Tesla delivered 435,000 vehicles for the quarter, below Street estimates of 455,000. The company said that it is still on track to reach a volume of 1.8 million units for the year. 

"We agree with the consensus that the performance of Tesla stock following the print will likely be driven by comments on the forward outlook," Jonas wrote. 

Opening at $250.05, shares of Tesla rose slightly Monday morning. 

Action Alerts PLUS offers expert portfolio guidance to help you make informed investing decisions. Sign up now.

Read More

Continue Reading

International

Cell-friendly bioprinting at high fidelity enhances its medical applicability

Osaka, Japan – What if organ damage could be repaired by simply growing a new organ in the lab? Improving researchers’ ability to print live cells…

Published

on

Osaka, Japan – What if organ damage could be repaired by simply growing a new organ in the lab? Improving researchers’ ability to print live cells on demand into geometrically well-defined, soft complex 3D architectures is essential to such work, as well as for animal-free toxicological testing.

Credit: Shinji Sakai

Osaka, Japan – What if organ damage could be repaired by simply growing a new organ in the lab? Improving researchers’ ability to print live cells on demand into geometrically well-defined, soft complex 3D architectures is essential to such work, as well as for animal-free toxicological testing.

In a study recently published in ACS Biomaterials Science and Engineering, researchers from Osaka University have overcome prior limitations that have hindered cell growth and the geometrical fidelity of bioprinted architectures. This work might help bring 3D-printed cell constructs closer to mimicking biological tissue and organs.

Ever since bioprinting was first reported in 1988 by using a standard inkjet printer, researchers have explored the potential of this layer-by-layer tissue assembly procedure to regrow damaged body parts and test medical hypotheses. Bioprinting is to eject a cell-containing “ink” from a printing nozzle to form 3D structures. It is usually easier to print hard rather than soft structures. However, soft structures are preferable in terms of cell growth in the printed structures. When printing soft structures, doing so in a printing support is effective; however, solidification of ink in the support filled in a vessel can result in its contamination with unwanted substances from the support. Ink solidification into a soft matrix using a printing support without contamination, while retaining cell viability, was the goal of this work.

“In our approach, a 3D printer alternately dispenses the cell-containing ink and a printing support,” explains Takashi Kotani, lead author of the study. “The interesting point is that the support also plays a role in facilitating the solidification of the ink. All that’s necessary for ink solidification is in the support, and after removing the support, the geometry of the soft printed cell structures remains intact.”

Hydrogen peroxide from the support enabled an enzyme in the ink to initiate gelation of the ink, resulting in a gel-enclosed cell assembly within a few seconds. This rapid gelation prevented contamination of the assembly during formation. After removing the support, straightforward 3D constructs such as inverted trapezium geometries as well as human nose shapes—including bridges, holes, and overhangs—were readily obtained.

“We largely retain mouse fibroblast cell geometry and growth, and the cells remain viable for at least two weeks,” says Shinji Sakai, senior author. “These cells also adhere to and proliferate on our constructs, which highlights our work’s potential in tissue engineering.”

This new technique is an important step forward to engineering human cell assemblies and tissues. Further work might involve further optimizing the ink and support, as well as incorporating blood vessels into the artificial tissue to improve its resemblance to physiological architectures. Regenerative medicine, pharmaceutical toxicology, and other fields will all benefit from this work and further improvements in the precise fidelity of bioprinting.

###
The article, “Horseradish Peroxidase-Mediated Bioprinting via Bioink Gelation by Alternately Extruded Support Material,” was published in ACS Biomaterials Science and Engineering at DOI: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsbiomaterials.3c00996

 

About Osaka University 
Osaka University was founded in 1931 as one of the seven imperial universities of Japan and is now one of Japan’s leading comprehensive universities with a broad disciplinary spectrum. This strength is coupled with a singular drive for innovation that extends throughout the scientific process, from fundamental research to the creation of applied technology with positive economic impacts. Its commitment to innovation has been recognized in Japan and around the world, being named Japan’s most innovative university in 2015 (Reuters 2015 Top 100) and one of the most innovative institutions in the world in 2017 (Innovative Universities and the Nature Index Innovation 2017). Now, Osaka University is leveraging its role as a Designated National University Corporation selected by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology to contribute to innovation for human welfare, sustainable development of society, and social transformation. 
Website: https://resou.osaka-u.ac.jp/en


Read More

Continue Reading

International

GIST scientists advance voice pathology detection via adversarial continual learning

Voice pathology refers to a problem arising from abnormal conditions, such as dysphonia, paralysis, cysts, and even cancer, that cause abnormal vibrations…

Published

on

Voice pathology refers to a problem arising from abnormal conditions, such as dysphonia, paralysis, cysts, and even cancer, that cause abnormal vibrations in the vocal cords (or vocal folds). In this context, voice pathology detection (VPD) has received much attention as a non-invasive way to automatically detect voice problems. It consists of two processing modules: a feature extraction module to characterize normal voices and a voice detection module to detect abnormal ones. Machine learning methods like support vector machines (SVM) and convolutional neural networks (CNN) have been successfully utilized as pathological voice detection modules to achieve good VPD performance. Also, a self-supervised, pretrained model can learn generic and rich speech feature representation, instead of explicit speech features, which further improves its VPD abilities. However, fine-tuning these models for VPD leads to an overfitting problem, due to a domain shift from conversation speech to the VPD task. As a result, the pretrained model becomes too focused on the training data and does not perform well on new data, preventing generalization.

Credit: Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST)

Voice pathology refers to a problem arising from abnormal conditions, such as dysphonia, paralysis, cysts, and even cancer, that cause abnormal vibrations in the vocal cords (or vocal folds). In this context, voice pathology detection (VPD) has received much attention as a non-invasive way to automatically detect voice problems. It consists of two processing modules: a feature extraction module to characterize normal voices and a voice detection module to detect abnormal ones. Machine learning methods like support vector machines (SVM) and convolutional neural networks (CNN) have been successfully utilized as pathological voice detection modules to achieve good VPD performance. Also, a self-supervised, pretrained model can learn generic and rich speech feature representation, instead of explicit speech features, which further improves its VPD abilities. However, fine-tuning these models for VPD leads to an overfitting problem, due to a domain shift from conversation speech to the VPD task. As a result, the pretrained model becomes too focused on the training data and does not perform well on new data, preventing generalization.

To mitigate this problem, a team of researchers from Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST) in South Korea, led by Prof. Hong Kook Kim, has proposed a groundbreaking contrastive learning method involving Wave2Vec 2.0—a self-supervised pretrained model for speech signals—with a novel approach called adversarial task adaptive pretraining (A-TAPT). Herein, they incorporated adversarial regularization during the continual learning process.

The researchers performed various experiments on VPD using the Saarbrucken Voice Database, finding that the proposed A-TAPT showed a 12.36% and 15.38% improvement in the unweighted average recall (UAR), when compared to SVM and CNN ResNet50, respectively. It also achieved a 2.77% higher UAR than the conventional TAPT learning. This shows that A-TAPT is better at mitigating the overfitting problem.

Talking about the long-term implications of this work, Mr. Park says who is the first author of this article: “In a span of five to 10 years, our pioneering research in VPD, developed in collaboration with MIT, may fundamentally transform healthcare, technology, and various industries. By enabling early and accurate diagnosis of voice-related disorders, it could lead to more effective treatments, improving the quality of life of countless individuals.”

Their article was made available online on 24 July 2023 and published in Volume 30 of the journal IEEE Signal Processing Letters. Their research, performed as part of a GIST funded project entitled ‘Extending Contrastive Learning to New Data Modalities and Resource-Limited Scenarios’ in collaboration with the MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA, embarks on a path that promises to redefine the landscape of VPD and artificial intelligence in medical applications. The project team includes Hong Kook Kim (EECS, GIST) and Dina Katabi (EECS, MIT) as Principal Investigators (PIs) as well as Jeany Son (AI Graduate School, GIST), Moongu Jeon (EECS, GIST), and Piotr Indyk (EECS, MIT) as co-PIs. 

Prof. Kim points out: “Our partnership with MIT has been instrumental in this success, facilitating ongoing exploration of contrastive learning. The collaboration is more than a mere partnership; it’s a fusion of minds and technologies that strive to reshape not only medical applications but various domains requiring intelligent, adaptive solutions.”

Furthermore, it is promising for health monitoring in vocally demanding professions like call center agent, ensuring robust voice authentication in security systems, making artificial intelligence voice assistants more responsive and adaptive, and developing tools for voice quality enhancement in the entertainment industry.   

Here’s hoping for further innovation in the field of self-supervised learning and contrastive learning!

 

***

 

Reference

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/LSP.2023.3298532

 

Affiliations:        

1AI Graduate School and School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology

2Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Lab for Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, MIT Center for Wireless Networks and Mobile Computing, MIT

                                    

About the Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST)
Website: http://www.gist.ac.kr/

 


Read More

Continue Reading

Trending