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Not safe to re-enter still shark-infested (retail) waters

Since rates commenced rising, we have been tracking the consumer closely, waiting for the inflection point where inflation and higher mortgage commitments…

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6 days ago

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Since rates commenced rising, we have been tracking the consumer closely, waiting for the inflection point where inflation and higher mortgage commitments meet the end of government financial support and savings dry up.

We have been reporting our observations, and the observations of others including the management of discretionary retailers and analysts, here at the blog, over the course of the last twelve months. You will know that rather than believing in a residential property bloodbath (not a financial ‘cliff’ but a financial ‘gutter’ we’ll step over), we have leaned towards the idea belt-tightening will hit discretionary spending the hardest. We believe consumers under financial duress will double down on their mortgage repayments and energy and utility costs to keep their home and keep it warm but the balancing item will be discretionary spending. It’s the reason the Montgomery Small Companies Fund, The Montgomery Fund, The Montgomery [Private] Fund have been eschewing retailers generally and discretionary retailers in particular.

Recently, our friends at Barrenjoey indicated a regular survey of their retail contacts has turned sufficiently bearish to warrant the publication of a note on the subject. Like us, Barrenjoey note the Australian consumer is under “huge” pressure thanks to cost of living pressures and the removal of direct government stimulus. With the latter having a high propensity to be spent in retail the report points to the rapid withdrawal of government stimulus as the precursor to an imminent decline in retail spending.

Consumer financial support via, for example, JobKeeper, cost of living support and tax exemptions including the low and middle-income tax offset, has been rapidly withdrawn thanks to the post-pandemic economic recovery and associated inflation. Additionally, inflation has resulted in real wage growth that is 5.2 per cent below pre-pandemic levels. 

The withdrawal of support has meant conditions for retailers will be leaner in the 2024 financial year. Without financial support for consumers, tax returns will not be the source of liquidity they were in 2022, and the legacy economic conditions include slowing economic growth, eroded savings, ultra-low fixed-rate mortgages rolling over to much higher variable rates, and significantly higher prices for inelastic goods and services such as energy, fuel and other utilities.

According to Barrenjoey, consumers benefited from approximately $11 billion in relief through their tax returns that won’t be repeated this year. And with 50 per cent of tax filings completed in the September quarter, another source of government support for retail spending has been removed. 

Barrenjoey’s more interesting observation is their comparison of the current wave of stimulus withdrawal, to that experienced in 2011. Mind you, they also note the size of the support during the Global Financial Crisis peaked at seven per cent of GDP. The peal of support in the pandemic peaked at 19 per cent of GDP.  The impact of the withdrawal could therefore be more acute.

While Barrenjoey note “no two retail cycles are the same”, they believe there are sufficient similarities between 2023 and 2011 for investors to be wary before venturing back into retail stocks.

Specifically, Barrenjoey reminds us 2011 was the year when retailers ‘confessed’ that trading during 2009 and 2010 benefitted from government stimulus. Consequently, during that year, retailers reported earnings downgrades, but the larger driver of share price falls at the time was price to earnings (P/E) contraction. Many retailers ended the year on single-digit P/E ratios.

By way of example, Barrenjoey notes Breville’s P/E contracted 22 per cent, Billabong’s P/E fell 58 per cent, JB Hi-Fi’s fell 32 per cent, Harvey Norman and Super Retail Group saw 22 and 24 per cent P/E contractions respectively, and Flight Centre’s P/E fell 43 per cent. In addition to the P/E de-rates, many retailers saw significant falls in their earnings per share.  While Breville, Super Retail and Flight Centre reported EPS growth of 10, five and five per cent respectively, the others saw earnings per share declines of between 18 and 57 per cent.

When earnings decline and P/Es contract simultaneously, the impact on share prices is compounded. For example, if a company earning $10 per share and trading on 20 times earnings sees both its earnings and its P/E both contract 50 per cent, the share price declines 75 per cent.

Barrenjoey’s note reminds us it may still be too early to go back into the discretionary retail waters.

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“What’s More Tragic Is Capitalism”: BLM Faces Bankruptcy As Founder Cullors Is Cut By Warner Bros

"What’s More Tragic Is Capitalism": BLM Faces Bankruptcy As Founder Cullors Is Cut By Warner Bros

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Two years…

Published

16 hours ago

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May 28, 2023

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"What's More Tragic Is Capitalism": BLM Faces Bankruptcy As Founder Cullors Is Cut By Warner Bros

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Two years ago, I wrote columns about companies pouring money into Black Lives Matter to establish their bona fides as “antiracist” corporations. The money continued to flow despite serious questions raised about BLM’s management and accounting. Democratic prosecutors like New York Attorney General Letitia James showed little interest in these allegations even as James sought to disband the National Rifle Association (NRA) over similar allegations. At the same time, Black Lives Matter co-founder Patrisse Cullors cashed in with companies like Warner Bros. eager to give her massive contracts to signal their own reformed status. It now appears that BLM is facing bankruptcy after burning through tens of millions and Warner Bros. cut ties with Cullors after the contract produced no — zero — new programming.

Some states belatedly investigated BLM as founders like Cullors seemed to scatter to the winds.

Gone are tens of millions of dollars, including millions spent on luxury mansions and windfalls for close associates of BLM leaders.

The usual suspects gathered around the activists like former Clinton campaign general counsel Marc Elias, who later removed himself from his “key role” as the scandals grew.

When questions were raised about the lack of accounting and questionable spending, BLM attacked critics as “white supremacists.”

Warner Bros. was one of the companies eager to grab its own piece of Cullors to signal its own anti-racist virtues.  It gave Cullors a lucrative contract to guide the company in the creation of both scripted and non-scripted content, focusing on reparations and other forms of social justice. It launched a publicity campaign for everyone to know that it established a “wide-ranging content partnership” with Cullors who would now help guide the massive corporation’s new programming. Calling Cullors “one of the most influential thought leaders in American public life,” Warner Bros. announced that she was going to create a wide array of new programming, including “but not limited to live-action scripted drama and comedy series; longform/event series; unscripted docuseries; animated programming for co-viewing among kids, young adults and families; and original digital content.”

Some are now wondering if Warner Bros. ever intended for this contract to produce anything other than a public relations pitch or whether Cullors took the money and ran without producing even a trailer for an actual product. Indeed, both explanations may be true.

Paying money to Cullors was likely viewed as a type of insurance to protect the company from accusations of racial insensitive. After all, the company was giving creative powers to a person who had no prior experience or demonstrated talent in the area. Yet, Cullors would be developing programming for one of the largest media and entertainment companies in the world.

One can hardly blame Cullors despite criticizism by some on the left for going on a buying spree of luxury properties.

After all, Cullors was previously open about her lack of interest in working with “capitalist” elements. Nevertheless, BLM was run like a Trotskyite study group as the media and corporations poured in support and revenue.

It was glaringly ironic to see companies like Warner Bros. falling over each other to grab their own front person as the group continued boycotts of white-owned businesses. Indeed, if you did not want to be on the wrong end of one of those boycotts, you needed to get Cullors on your payroll.

Much has now changed as companies like Bud Light have been rocked by boycotts over what some view as heavy handed virtue signaling campaigns.

It was quite a change for Cullors and her BLM co-founder, who previously proclaimed “[we] are trained Marxists. We are super versed on, sort of, ideological theories.” She denounced capitalism as worse than COVID-19. Yet, companies like Lululemon rushed to find their own “social justice warrior” while selling leggings for $120 apiece.

When some began to raise questions about Cullors buying luxury homes, Facebook and Twitter censored them.

With increasing concerns over the loss of millions, Cullors eventually stepped down as executive director of the Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation, as others resigned.  At the same time, the New York Post was revealing that BLM Global Network transferred $6.3 million to Cullors’ spouse, Janaya Khan, and other Canadian activists to purchase a mansion in Toronto in 2021.

According to The Washington Examiner, BLM PAC and a Los Angeles-based jail reform group paid Cullors $20,000 a month. It also spent nearly $26,000 on meetings at a luxury Malibu beach resort in 2019. Reform LA Jails, chaired by Cullors, received $1.4 million, of which $205,000 went to the consulting firm owned by Cullors and her spouse, according to New York magazine.

Once again, while figures like James have spent huge amounts of money and effort to disband the NRA over such accounting and spending controversies, there has been only limited efforts directed against BLM in New York and most states.

Cullors once declared that “while the COVID-19 illness is tragic, what’s more tragic is capitalism.” These companies seem to be trying to prove her point. Yet, at least for Cullors, Warner Bros. fulfilled its slogan that this is all “The stuff that dreams are made of.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/28/2023 - 16:00

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Biden reaches ‘tentative’ US debt ceiling deal: Report

United States President Joe Biden has urged the United States Congress to “pass the agreement right away.“
Amid growing concerns…

Published

1 day ago

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May 28, 2023

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United States President Joe Biden has urged the United States Congress to “pass the agreement right away.“

Amid growing concerns of a potential default by early June, United States President Joe Biden and House majority leader Representative Kevin McCarthy have reportedly reached an “agreement in principle” to raise the federal government’s multitrillion-dollar debt ceiling.

According to a May 28 report from Reuters citing two sources familiar with the negotiations, the “tentative” agreement to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling was reached after a 90-minute phone call between Biden and McCarthy on May 27.

Since publication time, Biden has confirmed via Twitter the existence of an “agreement in principle," explaining that it will prevent the U.S. from facing a “catastrophic default.“

Biden noted that “over the next day,” the agreement would go to the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate. He urged both chambers to “pass the agreement right away.“

Meanwhile, McCarthy also took to Twitter to confirm the agreement in principle, alleging that Biden “wasted time and refused to negotiate for months.“

Reuters reported that while “the exact details of the deal were not immediately available,” an agreement has been made to limit the U.S. government’s spending for the next two years, excluding expenses related to national security.

“Negotiators have agreed to cap non-defense discretionary spending at 2023 levels for one year and increase it by 1% in 2025,” a source familiar with the deal said.

Related: Debt ceiling crisis: Best practices to navigate this market

This comes only weeks after U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of a default risk as soon as June 1 if the debt limit isn’t suspended or raised, urging Congress to “act as soon as possible.“

Additionally, The U.S. Congressional Budget Office published a report on May 12, emphasizing that if the debt limit remains unchanged, there is a significant risk “that at some point in the first two weeks of June, the government will no longer be able to pay all of its obligations.“

In recent times, several analysts have shared a similar view that raising the debt ceiling could see more capital inflow into Bitcoin (BTC).

On May 17, MacroJack, a former Wall Street trader, warned his followers in a tweet that the U.S. debt ceiling talks are “all show.“

He emphasized how important it is to own hard assets as the dollar will be “printed into oblivion,” while stating that Bitcoin is the “fastest horse in the race.“

Meanwhile, Jesse Myers, chief operating officer of investment firm Onramp, reminded his 50,100 Twitter followers of what happened during the COVID-19 pandemic, stating that “Bitcoin was the winner during the last round of stimulus.“

He proposed the idea that history might repeat itself if the debt ceiling were to be raised, as it would prompt the Federal Reserve to print more money.

Update on May 28, 2023, at 03:15: This article has been updated to include United States President Joe Biden's tweet.

Magazine: Visa stablecoin plan, debt ceiling’s effect on Bitcoin price: Hodler’s Digest, April 23-29

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Biden reaches ‘tentative’ US debt ceiling deal: Report

United States President Joe Biden has urged both the United States House and Senate to "pass the agreement right away."
Amid growing…

Published

1 day ago

on

May 28, 2023

By

United States President Joe Biden has urged both the United States House and Senate to "pass the agreement right away."

Amid growing concerns of a potential default by early June, the United States President Joe Biden and Republican Kevin McCarthy have reportedly reached an "agreement in principle" to raise the federal government's multi-trillion dollar debt ceiling.

According to a May 28 report from Reuters, citing two sources familiar with the negotiations, the "tentative" agreement to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling was reached after a 90-minute phone call between Biden and McCarthy on May 27.

Following the publication of this article, Biden has since confirmed via Twitter the existence of an "agreement in principle," explaining that it will prevent the U.S. facing a "catostrophic default."

Biden noted that "over the next day," the agreement will go the U.S. House and Senate. He urged both chambers to "pass the agreement right away."

Meanwhile, McCarthy also took to Twitter to confirm the agreement in principle, alleging that Biden "wasted time and refused to negiotate for months."

Reuters reported that while "the exact details of the deal were not immediately available," an agreement has been made to limit the U.S. government's spending for the next two years, excluding expenses related to national security. 

"Negotiators have agreed to cap non-defense discretionary spending at 2023 levels for one year and increase it by 1% in 2025" a source familiar with the deal said.

Related: Debt ceiling crisis: Best practices to navigate this market

This comes only weeks after U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of a default risk as soon as June 1 if the debt limit isn't suspended or raised, urging Congress to "act as soon as possible."

Additionally, The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published a report on May 12, emphasizing that if the debt limit remains unchanged, there is a significant risk "that at some point in the first two weeks of June, the government will no longer be able to pay all of its obligations."

In recent times, several analysts have shared a similiar view that raising the debt ceiling could see more capital inflow into Bitcoin (BTC)

MacroJack, a former Wall Street trader, warned his followers in a tweet on May 17 that the U.S. debt ceiling talks are "all show."

He emphasized how important it is to own hard assets as the dollar will be "printed into oblivion," while stating that Bitcoin is the "fastest horse in the race."

Meanwhile, Jesse Myers, chief operating officer of investment firm Onramp reminded his 50,100 Twitter followers of what happened during the Covid-19 Pandemic, stating that "Bitcoin was the winner during the last round of stimulus."

He proposed the idea that history might repeat itself if the debt ceiling were to be raised, as it would prompt the Federal Reserve to print more money.

Update on May 28, 2023, at 03:15: This article has been updated to include United States President Joe Biden's tweet.

Magazine: Visa stablecoin plan, debt ceiling’s effect on Bitcoin price: Hodler’s Digest, April 23-29

Read More

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