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Norway For Sale: Are Russia And China Really Buying Up Norway’s National Resources?

Norway For Sale: Are Russia And China Really Buying Up Norway’s National Resources?

By Jonathan Williamson, via Norway Today,

The past year has seen the world economy blighted by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has impacte

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Norway For Sale: Are Russia And China Really Buying Up Norway’s National Resources?

By Jonathan Williamson, via Norway Today,

The past year has seen the world economy blighted by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has impacted every corner of the globe and every sector in the world economy. However, there are some countries that have emerged, post-lockdown, relatively unscathed.

Generally, those with an authoritarian regime, that are less bound by electoral cycles, individual freedoms, and market-driven economies, have been able to shut their country down efficiently. The ease at which countries can mobilize the military, to both enforce lockdowns and aid in mass vaccination programs, has helped in the quicker reopening of their economies than other freer countries.

These countries have thus been better placed to able be to take full advantage of a weaker global economy. The huge drop in international productivity, business, and trade has seen governments worldwide prop up sectors of their economy with enormous financial support. This has allowed an almost “firesale” of key strategic national companies and resources.

Recent acquisitions have sparked political debate

Norway has seen a surge of Chinese and Russian investment in recent years. The Chinese government-owned ChemChina acquisition of Elkem, from Orkla, in 2010 was seen as the start of this era. Having the Chinese government as the biggest shareholder in this strategic Norwegian chemical company, which produces precious metals and alloys, raised eyebrows.

The past year, especially, has seen China and Russia increase their presence and flex their economic muscle in Norway due to a weaker economy affected by COVID-19. The impact of this pandemic on the travel industry saw the government bailout Norwegian Air Shuttle to the tune of nearly NOK 3 billion last year. With government support popping up a vulnerable airline, the Chinese state-owned BOAC Aviation Ltd company, according to Norwegian Broadcasting (NRK), swooped in to acquire 12.67% and thus become the second-largest shareholder.

The recent controversial NOK 1.6 billion sale of the Bergen Engines factory, in Hordvikneset, to the Russian-controlled TMH International is another example. The sale had tentative government support, in collaboration with four government ministries (Trade, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Justice – who all signed off on the deal). However, as the largest client of Bergen Engines is the Norwegian Navy, there was concern, both from Norway’s military and fellow NATO members, about key military technology falling into Russian hands. The sale has been temporarily suspended due to “safety concerns,” according to Justice Minister Monica Mæland.

The government line is that both are private commercial transactions of which there should be no interference. However, not all are happy. The economic encroachment of authoritarian countries, into key strategic sectors of the Norwegian economy, has sparked a broad political discussion about the repercussions of such acquisitions.

Security Act update and intelligence service warning

The past decade has seen an aggressive rise, not just in financial markets, of authoritarian countries. There is a feeling that having such countries acquire a position in the Norwegian economy is not only bad business but also undermines national security. An updated version of the Security Act (Sikkerhetsloven) came into force in 2018 specifically to counter these aggressive acquisitions.

Lately, politicians, like Emilie Enger Mehl (SP), have been questioning the point of having updated the Act when such acquisitions can go ahead with seemingly little government due diligence. The Act now gives the National Security Authority (the regulatory body for overseeing such acquisitions) scope to block such deals. Foreign acquisitions of both private and public Norwegian companies that perform, either directly or through supply chains, a “basic national function”, can be prohibited on national security grounds. This can be applied broadly to sectors of the economy, not just those associated with defense and the military.

The economic presence of countries like China and Russia, in Norway, has also caused alarm in the Norwegian Foreign Intelligence Service. Handing down its annual report last year, Lieutenant-General Morten Haga Lunde said countries, like Russia and China, “…have political systems with close and intended ties between politics and economy, between state and private, and between civilian and military spheres.” The acquisition of Norwegian resource companies, for example, now has political as well as economic considerations.

The application of the Security Act was hinted at by Justice Minister Monica Mæland in a press conference at the Norwegian parliament (Storing) on Tuesday. Discussing the temporary suspension of the sale of Bergen Engines, she admitted that “we are now at a point where there is great uncertainty about national security interests” (of the sale), according to NTB. The impression was that the government is very much thinking about using the act to permanently stop the sale.

While various Intelligence Agencies in Norway have signaled China and Russia as the biggest threat increasing with their recent economic presence, the Chief of Armed Forces Eirik Kristoffersen still wants an improved dialogue. At the forefront of NATO’s border with Russia, Norway must delicately balance economic, political, and military affairs.

Kirkenes/Storskog. Russia’s and Norway’s border. Photo: Vidar Ruud / NTB scanpix

Recent Chinese and Russian activity centered on Arctic Norway

The complexity of the ongoing debate about the acquisition of key Norwegian resources, infrastructure, or companies can be best summed up by the Arctic region of Norway. Here is an area that is both underpopulated but resource-rich. Huge investment is needed for infrastructure and employment opportunities. These opportunities have, recently, been exploited not by Oslo but by Moscow and Beijing.

The Arctic region has seen increased Chinese attention. Recent years have seen China not only release a white paper outlining its own “Arctic Policy” but also Chinese companies develop a significant presence. The Halogaland Bridge, near Narvik, was built with Chinese collaboration as an important link crossing the Rombaken fjord to the nearby European road E6. This is part of the Chinese government’s development of the Arctic as a Northern route for its route “Belt and Road Initiative,” establishing key infrastructure that will link trade routes from Europe to China.

Sharing a land border with Norway, Russia has a more established presence in the region. The Russian company Novatek has started to build a world-leading oil and natural gas facility in Murmansk, some 250 kilometers from Kirkenes. Employing over 15.000, there is a hope this will turn the far Northern Arctic into a new global trade hub. However, the fact remains that much of the natural resources lie in Norwegian territorial and economic waters.

With rising global temperatures, the once unnavigable Northern Sea route, linking Europe with Asia, has become a major focus. There is already a Sino-Russian joint natural gas joint venture in the region and increased cargo shipping activity. There is a hope to fully develop Kirkenes as a deep water port which would help trade opportunities for Norway, China, and Russia.

Juggling the geopolitics of money

With a recent history of authoritarian countries increasing their presence in the Norwegian economy, where does this leave the Norwegian government seen as a champion of human rights?

Historically, the Norwegian government’s foreign policy has been the promotion of those rights enshrined in the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights: namely freedom of opinion, religion, speech, equality, privacy, a fair trial, and the freedom from torture. Lately, the Norwegian government has also championed peace diplomacy, the greater inclusion of women into economic and political life, and climate change.

Espousing such freedoms, of which many of these countries that are increasing their economic presence in Norway simply do not have, has led, to diplomatic conflict. The further integration of such countries to the Norwegian economy, holding strategic resources, companies, or infrastructure, has led to a belief that these holdings could be used to influence Norwegian policy

Money often talks when politicians don’t

The same year that ChemChina acquired its stake in Elkem, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded its annual Peace Prize to Chinese writer and noted dissident, Liu Xiaobo. Though the Committee is an independent entity to the government, the Chinese saw this as a direct slight and froze off diplomatic relations for 6 years. This meant the stalling of free trade talks which have only just resumed. Since then, the Norwegian government has been more circumspect in its dealings with China.

The complex integration of the Norwegian and Russian economy has been highlighted by the Norwegian Wealth Fund. Regardless of EU and US sanctions, the Wealth Fund increased its ownership of Russian companies, mostly in the oil and gas sector. With more Norwegian cash flowing into companies associated with the Putin regime, like Gazprom, there is the probability that this money will be used to prop up a faltering economy… and regime.

Divided opinions on foreign investment

The stronger presence of Russia and China, in Norway, has led to an ongoing discussion very much at the center of Norwegian society. As the Norwegian government is undergoing free trade talks with its Chinese counterpart, the youth wings of all major political parties (apart from the Progress Party) have voiced their opposition. They want an immediate ceasing of relations due to China’s recent human right record of the treatment of its Muslim Uyghur population.

A recent study of attitudes towards foreign investment published saw widespread skepticism of Russia and China. What was interesting was an age disparity where younger people seemed to be less skeptical of Russian and Chinese investment. As the Cold War ended a generation ago, and China has since aggressively embraced a market economy, there is little collective memory of living next to the “iron curtain” and the perils of communism.

Though the presence of countries like China and Russia, in the region, is not a recent phenomenon their increased economic activity is. What is needed now, more than ever, is a sensible debate about the long-term repercussions of any form of money from countries not necessarily aligned with many aspects of Norwegian society. As the old Norwegian proverb goes “Better an empty purse than wrongly got money.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/15/2021 - 03:30

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“I Can’t Even Save”: Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

"I Can’t Even Save": Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

While Joe Biden insists that Americans are doing great…

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"I Can't Even Save": Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

While Joe Biden insists that Americans are doing great - suggesting in his State of the Union Address last week that "our economy is the envy of the world," Americans are being absolutely crushed by inflation (which the Biden admin blames on 'shrinkflation' and 'corporate greed'), and of course - crippling debt.

The signs are obvious. Last week we noted that banks' charge-offs are accelerating, and are now above pre-pandemic levels.

...and leading this increase are credit card loans - with delinquencies that haven't been this high since Q3 2011.

On top of that, while credit cards and nonfarm, nonresidential commercial real estate loans drove the quarterly increase in the noncurrent rate, residential mortgages drove the quarterly increase in the share of loans 30-89 days past due.

And while Biden and crew can spin all they want, an average of polls from RealClear Politics shows that just 40% of people approve of Biden's handling of the economy.

Crushed

On Friday, Bloomberg dug deeper into the effects of Biden's "envious" economy on Americans - specifically, how massive debt loads (credit cards and auto loans especially) are absolutely crushing people.

Two years after the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates to tame prices, delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans are the highest in more than a decade. For the first time on record, interest payments on those and other non-mortgage debts are as big a financial burden for US households as mortgage interest payments.

According to the report, this presents a difficult reality for millions of consumers who drive the US economy - "The era of high borrowing costs — however necessary to slow price increases — has a sting of its own that many families may feel for years to come, especially the ones that haven’t locked in cheap home loans."

The Fed, meanwhile, doesn't appear poised to cut rates until later this year.

According to a February paper from IMF and Harvard, the recent high cost of borrowing - something which isn't reflected in inflation figures, is at the heart of lackluster consumer sentiment despite inflation having moderated and a job market which has recovered (thanks to job gains almost entirely enjoyed by immigrants).

In short, the debt burden has made life under President Biden a constant struggle throughout America.

"I’m making the most money I've ever made, and I’m still living paycheck to paycheck," 40-year-old Denver resident Nikki Cimino told Bloomberg. Cimino is carrying a monthly mortgage of $1,650, and has $4,000 in credit card debt following a 2020 divorce.

Nikki CiminoPhotographer: Rachel Woolf/Bloomberg

"There's this wild disconnect between what people are experiencing and what economists are experiencing."

What's more, according to Wells Fargo, families have taken on debt at a comparatively fast rate - no doubt to sustain the same lifestyle as low rates and pandemic-era stimmies provided. In fact, it only took four years for households to set a record new debt level after paying down borrowings in 2021 when interest rates were near zero. 

Meanwhile, that increased debt load is exacerbated by credit card interest rates that have climbed to a record 22%, according to the Fed.

[P]art of the reason some Americans were able to take on a substantial load of non-mortgage debt is because they’d locked in home loans at ultra-low rates, leaving room on their balance sheets for other types of borrowing. The effective rate of interest on US mortgage debt was just 3.8% at the end of last year.

Yet the loans and interest payments can be a significant strain that shapes families’ spending choices. -Bloomberg

And of course, the highest-interest debt (credit cards) is hurting lower-income households the most, as tends to be the case.

The lowest earners also understandably had the biggest increase in credit card delinquencies.

"Many consumers are levered to the hilt — maxed out on debt and barely keeping their heads above water," Allan Schweitzer, a portfolio manager at credit-focused investment firm Beach Point Capital Management told Bloomberg. "They can dog paddle, if you will, but any uptick in unemployment or worsening of the economy could drive a pretty significant spike in defaults."

"We had more money when Trump was president," said Denise Nierzwicki, 69. She and her 72-year-old husband Paul have around $20,000 in debt spread across multiple cards - all of which have interest rates above 20%.

Denise and Paul Nierzwicki blame Biden for what they see as a gloomy economy and plan to vote for the Republican candidate in November.
Photographer: Jon Cherry/Bloomberg

During the pandemic, Denise lost her job and a business deal for a bar they owned in their hometown of Lexington, Kentucky. While they applied for Social Security to ease the pain, Denise is now working 50 hours a week at a restaurant. Despite this, they're barely scraping enough money together to service their debt.

The couple blames Biden for what they see as a gloomy economy and plans to vote for the Republican candidate in November. Denise routinely voted for Democrats up until about 2010, when she grew dissatisfied with Barack Obama’s economic stances, she said. Now, she supports Donald Trump because he lowered taxes and because of his policies on immigration. -Bloomberg

Meanwhile there's student loans - which are not able to be discharged in bankruptcy.

"I can't even save, I don't have a savings account," said 29-year-old in Columbus, Ohio resident Brittany Walling - who has around $80,000 in federal student loans, $20,000 in private debt from her undergraduate and graduate degrees, and $6,000 in credit card debt she accumulated over a six-month stretch in 2022 while she was unemployed.

"I just know that a lot of people are struggling, and things need to change," she told the outlet.

The only silver lining of note, according to Bloomberg, is that broad wage gains resulting in large paychecks has made it easier for people to throw money at credit card bills.

Yet, according to Wells Fargo economist Shannon Grein, "As rates rose in 2023, we avoided a slowdown due to spending that was very much tied to easy access to credit ... Now, credit has become harder to come by and more expensive."

According to Grein, the change has posed "a significant headwind to consumption."

Then there's the election

"Maybe the Fed is done hiking, but as long as rates stay on hold, you still have a passive tightening effect flowing down to the consumer and being exerted on the economy," she continued. "Those household dynamics are going to be a factor in the election this year."

Meanwhile, swing-state voters in a February Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll said they trust Trump more than Biden on interest rates and personal debt.

Reverberations

These 'headwinds' have M3 Partners' Moshin Meghji concerned.

"Any tightening there immediately hits the top line of companies," he said, noting that for heavily indebted companies that took on debt during years of easy borrowing, "there's no easy fix."

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 18:00

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Sylvester researchers, collaborators call for greater investment in bereavement care

MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater…

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MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater risk for many adverse outcomes, including mental health challenges, decreased quality of life, health care neglect, cancer, heart disease, suicide, and death. Now, in a paper published in The Lancet Public Health, researchers sound a clarion call for greater investment, at both the community and institutional level, in establishing support for grief-related suffering.

Credit: Photo courtesy of Memorial Sloan Kettering Comprehensive Cancer Center

MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater risk for many adverse outcomes, including mental health challenges, decreased quality of life, health care neglect, cancer, heart disease, suicide, and death. Now, in a paper published in The Lancet Public Health, researchers sound a clarion call for greater investment, at both the community and institutional level, in establishing support for grief-related suffering.

The authors emphasized that increased mortality worldwide caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, suicide, drug overdose, homicide, armed conflict, and terrorism have accelerated the urgency for national- and global-level frameworks to strengthen the provision of sustainable and accessible bereavement care. Unfortunately, current national and global investment in bereavement support services is woefully inadequate to address this growing public health crisis, said researchers with Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Center at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine and collaborating organizations.  

They proposed a model for transitional care that involves firmly establishing bereavement support services within healthcare organizations to ensure continuity of family-centered care while bolstering community-based support through development of “compassionate communities” and a grief-informed workforce. The model highlights the responsibility of the health system to build bridges to the community that can help grievers feel held as they transition.   

The Center for the Advancement of Bereavement Care at Sylvester is advocating for precisely this model of transitional care. Wendy G. Lichtenthal, PhD, FT, FAPOS, who is Founding Director of the new Center and associate professor of public health sciences at the Miller School, noted, “We need a paradigm shift in how healthcare professionals, institutions, and systems view bereavement care. Sylvester is leading the way by investing in the establishment of this Center, which is the first to focus on bringing the transitional bereavement care model to life.”

What further distinguishes the Center is its roots in bereavement science, advancing care approaches that are both grounded in research and community-engaged.  

The authors focused on palliative care, which strives to provide a holistic approach to minimize suffering for seriously ill patients and their families, as one area where improvements are critically needed. They referenced groundbreaking reports of the Lancet Commissions on the value of global access to palliative care and pain relief that highlighted the “undeniable need for improved bereavement care delivery infrastructure.” One of those reports acknowledged that bereavement has been overlooked and called for reprioritizing social determinants of death, dying, and grief.

“Palliative care should culminate with bereavement care, both in theory and in practice,” explained Lichtenthal, who is the article’s corresponding author. “Yet, bereavement care often is under-resourced and beset with access inequities.”

Transitional bereavement care model

So, how do health systems and communities prioritize bereavement services to ensure that no bereaved individual goes without needed support? The transitional bereavement care model offers a roadmap.

“We must reposition bereavement care from an afterthought to a public health priority. Transitional bereavement care is necessary to bridge the gap in offerings between healthcare organizations and community-based bereavement services,” Lichtenthal said. “Our model calls for health systems to shore up the quality and availability of their offerings, but also recognizes that resources for bereavement care within a given healthcare institution are finite, emphasizing the need to help build communities’ capacity to support grievers.”

Key to the model, she added, is the bolstering of community-based support through development of “compassionate communities” and “upskilling” of professional services to assist those with more substantial bereavement-support needs.

The model contains these pillars:

  • Preventive bereavement care –healthcare teams engage in bereavement-conscious practices, and compassionate communities are mindful of the emotional and practical needs of dying patients’ families.
  • Ownership of bereavement care – institutions provide bereavement education for staff, risk screenings for families, outreach and counseling or grief support. Communities establish bereavement centers and “champions” to provide bereavement care at workplaces, schools, places of worship or care facilities.
  • Resource allocation for bereavement care – dedicated personnel offer universal outreach, and bereaved stakeholders provide input to identify community barriers and needed resources.
  • Upskilling of support providers – Bereavement education is integrated into training programs for health professionals, and institutions offer dedicated grief specialists. Communities have trained, accessible bereavement specialists who provide support and are educated in how to best support bereaved individuals, increasing their grief literacy.
  • Evidence-based care – bereavement care is evidence-based and features effective grief assessments, interventions, and training programs. Compassionate communities remain mindful of bereavement care needs.

Lichtenthal said the new Center will strive to materialize these pillars and aims to serve as a global model for other health organizations. She hopes the paper’s recommendations “will cultivate a bereavement-conscious and grief-informed workforce as well as grief-literate, compassionate communities and health systems that prioritize bereavement as a vital part of ethical healthcare.”

“This paper is calling for healthcare institutions to respond to their duty to care for the family beyond patients’ deaths. By investing in the creation of the Center for the Advancement of Bereavement Care, Sylvester is answering this call,” Lichtenthal said.

Follow @SylvesterCancer on X for the latest news on Sylvester’s research and care.

# # #

Article Title: Investing in bereavement care as a public health priority

DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00030-6

Authors: The complete list of authors is included in the paper.

Funding: The authors received funding from the National Cancer Institute (P30 CA240139 Nimer) and P30 CA008748 Vickers).

Disclosures: The authors declared no competing interests.

# # #


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Separating Information From Disinformation: Threats From The AI Revolution

Separating Information From Disinformation: Threats From The AI Revolution

Authored by Per Bylund via The Mises Institute,

Artificial intelligence…

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Separating Information From Disinformation: Threats From The AI Revolution

Authored by Per Bylund via The Mises Institute,

Artificial intelligence (AI) cannot distinguish fact from fiction. It also isn’t creative or can create novel content but repeats, repackages, and reformulates what has already been said (but perhaps in new ways).

I am sure someone will disagree with the latter, perhaps pointing to the fact that AI can clearly generate, for example, new songs and lyrics. I agree with this, but it misses the point. AI produces a “new” song lyric only by drawing from the data of previous song lyrics and then uses that information (the inductively uncovered patterns in it) to generate what to us appears to be a new song (and may very well be one). However, there is no artistry in it, no creativity. It’s only a structural rehashing of what exists.

Of course, we can debate to what extent humans can think truly novel thoughts and whether human learning may be based solely or primarily on mimicry. However, even if we would—for the sake of argument—agree that all we know and do is mere reproduction, humans have limited capacity to remember exactly and will make errors. We also fill in gaps with what subjectively (not objectively) makes sense to us (Rorschach test, anyone?). Even in this very limited scenario, which I disagree with, humans generate novelty beyond what AI is able to do.

Both the inability to distinguish fact from fiction and the inductive tether to existent data patterns are problems that can be alleviated programmatically—but are open for manipulation.

Manipulation and Propaganda

When Google launched its Gemini AI in February, it immediately became clear that the AI had a woke agenda. Among other things, the AI pushed woke diversity ideals into every conceivable response and, among other things, refused to show images of white people (including when asked to produce images of the Founding Fathers).

Tech guru and Silicon Valley investor Marc Andreessen summarized it on X (formerly Twitter): “I know it’s hard to believe, but Big Tech AI generates the output it does because it is precisely executing the specific ideological, radical, biased agenda of its creators. The apparently bizarre output is 100% intended. It is working as designed.”

There is indeed a design to these AIs beyond the basic categorization and generation engines. The responses are not perfectly inductive or generative. In part, this is necessary in order to make the AI useful: filters and rules are applied to make sure that the responses that the AI generates are appropriate, fit with user expectations, and are accurate and respectful. Given the legal situation, creators of AI must also make sure that the AI does not, for example, violate intellectual property laws or engage in hate speech. AI is also designed (directed) so that it does not go haywire or offend its users (remember Tay?).

However, because such filters are applied and the “behavior” of the AI is already directed, it is easy to take it a little further. After all, when is a response too offensive versus offensive but within the limits of allowable discourse? It is a fine and difficult line that must be specified programmatically.

It also opens the possibility for steering the generated responses beyond mere quality assurance. With filters already in place, it is easy to make the AI make statements of a specific type or that nudges the user in a certain direction (in terms of selected facts, interpretations, and worldviews). It can also be used to give the AI an agenda, as Andreessen suggests, such as making it relentlessly woke.

Thus, AI can be used as an effective propaganda tool, which both the corporations creating them and the governments and agencies regulating them have recognized.

Misinformation and Error

States have long refused to admit that they benefit from and use propaganda to steer and control their subjects. This is in part because they want to maintain a veneer of legitimacy as democratic governments that govern based on (rather than shape) people’s opinions. Propaganda has a bad ring to it; it’s a means of control.

However, the state’s enemies—both domestic and foreign—are said to understand the power of propaganda and do not hesitate to use it to cause chaos in our otherwise untainted democratic society. The government must save us from such manipulation, they claim. Of course, rarely does it stop at mere defense. We saw this clearly during the covid pandemic, in which the government together with social media companies in effect outlawed expressing opinions that were not the official line (see Murthy v. Missouri).

AI is just as easy to manipulate for propaganda purposes as social media algorithms but with the added bonus that it isn’t only people’s opinions and that users tend to trust that what the AI reports is true. As we saw in the previous article on the AI revolution, this is not a valid assumption, but it is nevertheless a widely held view.

If the AI then can be instructed to not comment on certain things that the creators (or regulators) do not want people to see or learn, then it is effectively “memory holed.” This type of “unwanted” information will not spread as people will not be exposed to it—such as showing only diverse representations of the Founding Fathers (as Google’s Gemini) or presenting, for example, only Keynesian macroeconomic truths to make it appear like there is no other perspective. People don’t know what they don’t know.

Of course, nothing is to say that what is presented to the user is true. In fact, the AI itself cannot distinguish fact from truth but only generates responses according to direction and only based on whatever the AI has been fed. This leaves plenty of scope for the misrepresentation of the truth and can make the world believe outright lies. AI, therefore, can easily be used to impose control, whether it is upon a state, the subjects under its rule, or even a foreign power.

The Real Threat of AI

What, then, is the real threat of AI? As we saw in the first article, large language models will not (cannot) evolve into artificial general intelligence as there is nothing about inductive sifting through large troves of (humanly) created information that will give rise to consciousness. To be frank, we haven’t even figured out what consciousness is, so to think that we will create it (or that it will somehow emerge from algorithms discovering statistical language correlations in existing texts) is quite hyperbolic. Artificial general intelligence is still hypothetical.

As we saw in the second article, there is also no economic threat from AI. It will not make humans economically superfluous and cause mass unemployment. AI is productive capital, which therefore has value to the extent that it serves consumers by contributing to the satisfaction of their wants. Misused AI is as valuable as a misused factory—it will tend to its scrap value. However, this doesn’t mean that AI will have no impact on the economy. It will, and already has, but it is not as big in the short-term as some fear, and it is likely bigger in the long-term than we expect.

No, the real threat is AI’s impact on information. This is in part because induction is an inappropriate source of knowledge—truth and fact are not a matter of frequency or statistical probabilities. The evidence and theories of Nicolaus Copernicus and Galileo Galilei would get weeded out as improbable (false) by an AI trained on all the (best and brightest) writings on geocentrism at the time. There is no progress and no learning of new truths if we trust only historical theories and presentations of fact.

However, this problem can probably be overcome by clever programming (meaning implementing rules—and fact-based limitations—to the induction problem), at least to some extent. The greater problem is the corruption of what AI presents: the misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation that its creators and administrators, as well as governments and pressure groups, direct it to create as a means of controlling or steering public opinion or knowledge.

This is the real danger that the now-famous open letter, signed by Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, and others, pointed to:

“Should we let machines flood our information channels with propaganda and untruth? Should we automate away all the jobs, including the fulfilling ones? Should we develop nonhuman minds that might eventually outnumber, outsmart, obsolete and replace us? Should we risk loss of control of our civilization?”

Other than the economically illiterate reference to “automat[ing] away all the jobs,” the warning is well-taken. AI will not Terminator-like start to hate us and attempt to exterminate mankind. It will not make us all into biological batteries, as in The Matrix. However, it will—especially when corrupted—misinform and mislead us, create chaos, and potentially make our lives “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 06:30

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