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New Yorkers think feds not doing enough for the city and state

New Yorkers think feds not doing enough for the city and state

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Anxiety rises over job and housing loss, and more New Yorkers fear getting sick as the virus hits people they know

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Credit: CUNY SPH

A majority (56%) of New York City residents did not think the assistance provided by the federal government for NYC and the state as a whole is sufficient to manage the current coronavirus crisis. Only 22% thought assistance was sufficient, with the remaining 23% unsure. The findings are part of the third week of data from a city and statewide CUNY Graduate School of Public Health & Health Policy (CUNY SPH) tracking survey conducted March 27-29.

As social distancing extends under Governor Cuomo’s PAUSE order, the number of New Yorkers who reported feeling “not at all” socially connected in the past week rose to 43%, nearly doubling the percentage (22%) of those who felt similarly isolated the previous week.

The strain of the pandemic is taking its toll on the mental health of New York residents; 44% reported feeling nervous, anxious or on-edge more than half the time (at least 3-4 days a week or more often), while 35% reported similar levels of feeling down, depressed, or hopeless.

Health concerns

As the number of confirmed cases in the city and state surged this week, perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 also increased, with well more than half the respondents (55%) thinking they have a high or very high risk of getting sick with coronavirus, compared to 39% the previous week.

Similarly, consistent with the mounting number of confirmed cases, another major shift in the latest tracking survey saw 28% of respondents reporting they personally knew someone who tested positive for coronavirus, double the result (14%) from the previous week.

In an additional a new finding, one in eight New Yorkers (12%) reported that someone in their household was sick at home with symptoms of COVID-19. This was even higher among respondents in the 18-29 age group, with nearly one in six (15.9%) reporting someone sick at home with a fever or other symptoms.

“We continue to see a generational divide in our tracking survey,” said Scott Ratzan MD, distinguished lecturer at CUNY SPH and editor in chief, Journal of Health Communication. “Younger New Yorkers believe they have a significantly higher chance of getting sick than their older counterparts, and this finding has been consistent for the last three weeks.”

“As older people are most likely to suffer serious health consequences from COVID-19, we would expect them to be most concerned about their risk,” Dr. Ratzan explained. “It may be that our public health communication on risk and consequences of getting COVID-19 are not reaching older people adequately.”

The pandemic is impacting the healthcare of New Yorkers in ways unrelated to the COVID-19 illness. More than a third (35%) of respondents reported the cancellation of medical care for other health problems due to the epidemic, and almost one respondent in 10 (9%) reported losing their health insurance as a result of virus-related job loss.

Economic concerns

Job loss is an escalating problem, with 36% in the city reporting that someone in their household had lost their job as a result of the virus, almost a 25% increase over the job loss of 29% reported in the previous week. Job losses continued to affect the Hispanic community disproportionately, with 46% reporting a household job loss. Women (42%) were more affected by job loss than men (29%), a significantly different finding from last week’s survey results. Lower income (less than $50,000) workers were almost twice as likely to report household job loss at 41%, than the highest earners (more than $100,000), 24% of whom reported job loss.

“It is clear that the economic burden of coronavirus is falling disproportionately on the people in our city who are least able to afford it,” said Dr. Ayman El-Mohandes, dean of CUNY SPH. “It remains to be seen how well we can address these disparities.”

More than two in five New Yorkers (44%) say they are concerned about their housing situation; 27% said they would not be able to pay next month’s rent and 17% said they could not meet next month’s mortgage payment. A substantial majority (59%) of those unable to pay rent fear they will be evicted.

About a third of residents (33%) are considering moving out of the city, with 12% saying they would move within New York state and 21% considering moving out of state, a troubling finding considering the current importance of people staying at home as much as possible. Two-thirds (67%) said they were not considering moving out of the city.

Other key findings

Despite respondents reporting an increased perception of the likelihood of contracting the virus, only 22% of respondents sought healthcare or advice from a health professional about coronavirus this past week, down by one-third from the two previous weeks, when 34% reported seeking medical care or advice.

There was an increase in those who said they were tested, with 5% reporting they had a nasal or throat swab performed by a medical professional; about one-fourth of those tested reporting testing positive for the virus.

A majority (62%) of New York City residents said they would take a vaccine for coronavirus right now if it were available; 19% would not and an additional 19% were unsure.

A majority (56%) think that asking New Yorkers who leave the state to self-quarantine for two weeks is helpful in containing the spread, 23% are unsure and 21% think it is not helpful.

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The complete survey results and related commentary can be found at https://sph.cuny.edu/research/covid-19-tracking-survey/week-3 and JHC Impact, an initiative of the Journal of Health Communication: International Perspectives.

Survey methodology:

The CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy (CUNY SPH) survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling from March 20-22, 2020. The sample for the NY Statewide results, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, education and region based on the 2018 1-year American Community Survey model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines (n=574), SMS-to-online (n=) an222d an online panel provided by MTurk and Survey Monkey (n=204).

The state was broken out into the following regions:

Region 1: 14.7% Long Island (USC1-4), Shirley, Seaford, Glen Cove, Garden City

Region 2: NYC 45.3% (USC 5-16) Queens, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Staten Island, Bronx

Region 3: 40% Upstate New York (USC 17-27): Albany, Harrison, Carmel, Rhinebeck, Amsterdam, Schuylerville, Utica, Corning, Irondequoit, Buffalo, Rochester

The CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy (CUNY SPH) is committed to teaching, research and service that creates a healthier New York City and helps promote equitable, efficient and evidence-based solutions to pressing health problems facing cities around the world.

Media Contact
Barbara Aaron
barbara.aaron@sph.cuny.edu

Original Source

https://sph.cuny.edu/research/covid-19-tracking-survey/week-3/

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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024
A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to star…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale!
...
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s February 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were up 11.3% year-over-year in February. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:

New Listings
However, providing a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this February as newly listed homes were 11.3% above last year’s levels. This marked the fourth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.
Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but we will have to wait for the March and April data to see how close new listings are to normal levels.

There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).

And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be in the 6 1/2% to 7% range.

But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.
There is much more in the article.

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Pharma industry reputation remains steady at a ‘new normal’ after Covid, Harris Poll finds

The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45%…

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The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45% of US respondents in 2023, according to the latest Harris Poll data. That’s exactly the same as the previous year.

Pharma’s highest point was in February 2021 — as Covid vaccines began to roll out — with a 62% positive US perception, and helping the industry land at an average 55% positive sentiment at the end of the year in Harris’ 2021 annual assessment of industries. The pharma industry’s reputation hit its most recent low at 32% in 2019, but it had hovered around 30% for more than a decade prior.

Rob Jekielek

“Pharma has sustained a lot of the gains, now basically one and half times higher than pre-Covid,” said Harris Poll managing director Rob Jekielek. “There is a question mark around how sustained it will be, but right now it feels like a new normal.”

The Harris survey spans 11 global markets and covers 13 industries. Pharma perception is even better abroad, with an average 58% of respondents notching favorable sentiments in 2023, just a slight slip from 60% in each of the two previous years.

Pharma’s solid global reputation puts it in the middle of the pack among international industries, ranking higher than government at 37% positive, insurance at 48%, financial services at 51% and health insurance at 52%. Pharma ranks just behind automotive (62%), manufacturing (63%) and consumer products (63%), although it lags behind leading industries like tech at 75% positive in the first spot, followed by grocery at 67%.

The bright spotlight on the pharma industry during Covid vaccine and drug development boosted its reputation, but Jekielek said there’s maybe an argument to be made that pharma is continuing to develop innovative drugs outside that spotlight.

“When you look at pharma reputation during Covid, you have clear sense of a very dynamic industry working very quickly and getting therapies and products to market. If you’re looking at things happening now, you could argue that pharma still probably doesn’t get enough credit for its advances, for example, in oncology treatments,” he said.

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Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
A brief excerpt: I’ve argued repeatedly that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened followi…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

A brief excerpt:
I’ve argued repeatedly that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble). The two key reasons are mortgage lending has been solid, and most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes..
...
And on mortgage rates, here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q3 2023 (Q4 2023 data will be released in a two weeks).

This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. Currently 22.6% of loans are under 3%, 59.4% are under 4%, and 78.7% are under 5%.

With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties.
There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

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