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New Pacific Intersects 505 Metres Grading 1.22 Grams Per Tonne Gold at the Carangas Project, Bolivia

New Pacific Intersects 505 Metres Grading 1.22 Grams Per Tonne Gold at the Carangas Project, Bolivia
PR Newswire
VANCOUVER, BC, Jan. 24, 2023

VANCOUVER, BC, Jan. 24, 2023 /PRNewswire/ – New Pacific Metals Corp. (“New Pacific” or the “Company”) (TS…

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New Pacific Intersects 505 Metres Grading 1.22 Grams Per Tonne Gold at the Carangas Project, Bolivia

PR Newswire

VANCOUVER, BC, Jan. 24, 2023 /PRNewswire/ - New Pacific Metals Corp. ("New Pacific" or the "Company") (TSX: NUAG) (NYSE: NEWP), together with its local Bolivian partner, report assay results for four deep drill holes at its Carangas Silver-Gold Project, Oruro Department, Bolivia (the "Carangas Project" or the "Project"). These deep step-out holes were drilled south of the previous gold intercepts. At Carangas, thick gold mineralization occurs beneath a shallow silver horizon measuring approximately 1,000 metres ("m") long, 800 m wide and up to 200 m thick. Detailed results and drill hole specifications are provided in Tables 1 and 2, as well as Figure 1.

A total of 50,368 m was drilled in 115 holes at the Carangas Project in 2022. Assay results from 43 of these holes have been received and released to date, while the results of the remaining 72 drill holes are pending. Since June 2021, a total of 63,578 m in 150 holes has been drilled at the Carangas Project.  

HIGHLIGHTS

Hole DCAr0094 intersected, from 228.5 m to 733.12 m, a 504.62 m gold interval grading 1.22 grams per tonne ("g/t") gold ("Au") and 13 g/t silver ("Ag"), including a 124.69 m higher grade interval (from 479.46 m to 604.15 m) grading 2.77 g/t Au, 14 g/t Ag and 0.11% copper ("Cu"), including a 44.73 m sub-interval (from 559.42 m to 604.15 m) grading 5.03 g/t Au, 19 g/t Ag and 0.16% Cu. The hole also intersected, from 47.65 m to 149.23 m, a 101.58 m silver interval grading 64 g/t silver equivalent ("AgEq"), comprising 18 g/t Ag, 0.2%Pb, and 0.85% Zn.

Hole DCAr0067 intersected, from 24.27 m to 166.0 m, a 141.73 m silver interval grading 119 g/t AgEq, comprising 67 g/t Ag, 0.43% Pb and 1.03% Zn, including a 24.38 m interval (from 62.15 m to 86.53 m) grading 331 g/t AgEq, comprising 251 g/t Ag, 0.69% Pb and 1.66 Zn%. From 171.34 m to 685.0 m, the hole intersected a 513.66 m gold interval grading 0.72 g/t Au and 7 g/t Ag, including a 112.11 m interval (from 450.42 m to 562.53) grading 1.82 g/t Au and 9 g/t Ag. This hole was terminated in gold mineralization at 688 m depth due to down hole drill difficulties.

Hole DCAr0078 intersected, from 24.2 m to 174.4 m, a 150.20 m silver interval grading 45 g/t AgEq, comprising 12 g/t Ag, 0.22% Pb and 0.69% Zn, and, from 179.3 m to 848 m, a 668.7 m gold interval grading 0.48 g/t Au, 5 g/t Ag and 0.22% Zn. This hole is collared in the southern portion of the Central Valley, about 110 m to the southeast of hole DCAr0067.

Hole DCAr0081 intersected, from 4.93 m to 136.72 m, a 131.79 m silver interval grading 93 g/t AgEq, comprising 42 g/t Ag, 0.51% Pb and 0.95% Zn, and, from 141.5 m to 545.75 m, a 404.25 m gold interval grading 0.42 g/t Au, 7 g/t Ag, 0.18% Pb and 0.45% Zn, and, from 579.2 m to 664.74 m, a second gold interval of 85.54 m grading 0.65 g/t Au, 6 g/t Ag and 0.1% Cu.

2023 DRILL PROGRAM AND RESOURCE ESTIMATES FOR THE CARANGAS PROJECT

The Company plans to drill 15,000 m during the first quarter of 2023 at Carangas to test the eastern extension of gold mineralization beneath the East Dome and expand parts of the shallow silver horizon. Following this drill program, an inaugural resource estimate is planned in the second quarter of 2023.

Table 1    Summary of Drill Intercepts

Hole_ID


Depth_from

Depth_to

Interval_m

Ag_g/t

Au_g/t

Pb_%

Zn_%

Cu_%

AgEq_g/t

DCAr0067


24.27

166.00

141.73

67

0.03

0.43

1.03

0.03

119


incl.

62.15

86.53

24.38

251

0.02

0.69

1.66

0.03

331



171.34

685.00

513.66

7

0.72

0.07

0.07

0.05

68


incl.

450.42

562.53

112.11

9

1.82

0.04

0.03

0.07

148

DCAr0078


24.20

174.40

150.20

12

0.02

0.22

0.69

0.02

45



179.30

848.00

668.70

5

0.48

0.09

0.22

0.05

54

DCAr0081


4.93

136.72

131.79

42

0.02

0.51

0.95

0.02

93



141.50

545.75

404.25

7

0.42

0.18

0.45

0.03

60



579.20

664.74

85.54

6

0.65

0.01

0.05

0.10

64

DCAr0094


47.65

149.23

101.58

18

0.07

0.20

0.85

0.06

64



228.50

733.12

504.62

13

1.22

0.08

0.07

0.06

110


incl.

479.46

604.15

124.69

14

2.77

0.05

0.01

0.11

224


incl.

559.42

604.15

44.73

19

5.03

0.03

0.01

0.16

395



Notes:   
1.  Drill location, altitude, azimuth, and dip of drill holes are provided in Table 2
2.  Drill intercept is core length, and grade is length weighted. True width of mineralization is unknown due to early stage of exploration without adequate drill data.
3.  Calculation of silver equivalent ("AgEq") is based on the long-term median of the August 2021 Street Consensus Commodity Price Forecasts, which are US$22.50/oz for Ag, US$0.95/lb for Pb, US$1.10/lb for Zn, US$3.40/lb for Cu, and US$1,600/oz for Au. The formula used for the AgEq calculation is as follows: AgEq = Ag g/t + Pb g/t * 0.0029 + Zn g/t * 0.00335 + Cu g/t * 0.01036 + Au g/t * 71.1111. This calculation assumes 100% recovery. Due to the early stage of the Project, the Company has not yet completed metallurgical test work on the mineralization encountered to date.
4.  A cut-off of 20 g/t AgEq is applied to calculate the length-weighted intercept. At times, samples lower than 20 g/t AgEq may be included in the calculation of consolidation of mineralized intercepts.




Figure 1 Simplified Geology and Drill Plan Map of Carangas

Table 2 Summary of Drill Holes of Carangas Project

Hole_ID

Easting

Northing

Altitude

Depth_m

Azimuth (°)

Dip (°)

Date_completion

Target

DCAr0067

539013.65

7905184.23

3905.17

688.00

20

-70

8/5/2022

CV

DCAr0078

539093.76

7905104.69

3905.74

848.00

20

-70

8/28/2022

CV

DCAr0081

538950.83

7905156.27

3904.67

1004.00

20

-70

8/29/2022

CV

DCAr0094

538957.18

7905202.16

3905.03

800.00

49

-55

9/20/2022

CV



Note:

1. Drill collar coordinate system is WGS1984 UTM Zone 19S


2. Coordinate of drill collar is picked with Real Time Kinematics (RTK) GPS


3. CV - Central Valley; WD - West Dome; ED - East Dome



QUALITY ASSURANCE AND QUALITY CONTROL

The Company maintains tight sample security and QA/QC for all aspects of its exploration program at the Carangas Project. Drill core is logged, photographed and split on-site by the company and stored under secure conditions until being shipped in security-sealed bags by New Pacific staff in Company vehicles, directly from the project to ALS Global in Oruro, Bolivia for preparation, and ALS Global in Lima, Peru for geochemical analysis. ALS Global is an ISO 17025 accredited laboratory independent from New Pacific. All samples are first analyzed by a multi-element ICP package (ALS code ME-MS41) with ore grade specified limits for silver, lead, and zinc, further analyzed using ALS code OG46. Further silver samples over specified limits are analyzed by gravimetric analysis (ALS code of GRA21). Gold is assayed first by ICP and then by fire assay with AAS finish (ALS code of Au-AA25). Certified reference materials, various types of blank samples and duplicate samples are inserted into normal drill core sample sequences prior to delivery to the laboratory for preparation and analysis. The overall ratio of quality control samples in sample sequences is around twenty percent.

QUALIFIED PERSON

The scientific and technical information contained in this news release has been reviewed and approved by Alex Zhang, P. Geo., Vice President of Exploration, who is a Qualified Person for the purposes of National Instrument 43-101 — Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects ("NI 43-101"). The Qualified Person has verified the information disclosed herein using standard verification processes, including the sampling, preparation, security and analytical procedures underlying such information, and is not aware of any significant risks and uncertainties or any limitations on the verification process that could be expected to affect the reliability or confidence in the information discussed herein.

ABOUT NEW PACIFIC

New Pacific is a Canadian exploration and development company with precious metal projects in Bolivia. The Company's flagship Project, the Silver Sand Silver Project, has released its inaugural PEA study in January 2023. The PEA study shows a post-tax NPV (5% discount) of US$726 millions and IRR 39%, underpinned by a total silver production of 171 million ounces in 14 years of mine life.  At the recently discovered Carangas Silver-Gold Project, a resource drilling program of more than 50,000 meters was completed in 2022. The third project, the Silverstrike Silver-Gold Project, had a 6,000 m discovery drill program ongoing since June 2022.

For further information, please contact:

New Pacific Metals Corp.
Phone: (604) 633-1368 Ext. 222
U.S. & Canada toll-free: 1-877-631-0593
E-mail: invest@newpacificmetals.com
For additional information and to receive company news by e-mail, please register using New Pacific's website at www.newpacificmetals.com.

CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION

Certain of the statements and information in this news release constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and "forward-looking information" within the meaning of applicable Canadian provincial securities laws. Any statements or information that express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, assumptions, or future events or performance (often, but not always, using words or phrases such as "expects", "is expected", "anticipates", "believes", "plans", "projects", "estimates", "assumes", "intends", "strategies", "targets", "goals", "forecasts", "objectives", "budgets", "schedules", "potential" or variations thereof or stating that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "would", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved, or the negative of any of these terms and similar expressions) are not statements of historical fact and may be forward-looking statements or information. Such statements include, but are not limited to: statements regarding anticipated exploration, drilling, development, construction, and other activities or achievements of the Company; timing of receipt of permits and regulatory approvals; timing and content of the PEA, and estimates of the Company's revenues and capital expenditures; and other future plans, objectives or expectations of the Company.

The PEA study results of Silver Sand Project are preliminary in nature and are intended to provide an initial assessment of the project's economic potential and development options.  The PEA mine schedule and economic assessment includes numerous assumptions and is based on both Indicated and Inferred mineral resources. Inferred resources are considered too speculative geologically to have the economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorized as mineral reserves, and there is no certainty that the project economic assessments described herein will be achieved or that the PEA results will be realized. The estimate of mineral resources may be materially affected by geology, environmental, permitting, legal, title, socio-political, marketing or other relevant issues. Mineral Resources are not Mineral Reserves and do not have demonstrated economic viability. Additional exploration will be required to potentially upgrade the classification of the Inferred Mineral Resources to be considered in future advanced studies. AMC Mining Consultants (Canada) Ltd. (mineral resource, mining, infrastructure and financial analysis) was contracted to conduct the PEA in cooperation with Halyard Inc. (metallurgy and processing), and NewFields Canada Mining & Environment ULC (tailings, water and waste management). The Qualified Persons for the PEA are Mr. Wayne Rogers P.Eng and Mr. Mo Molavi P.Eng both Principal Mining Engineers with AMC Mining Consultants (Canada) Ltd,  Mr. Andy Holloway P.Eng, Process Director with Halyard Inc., and Mr. Leon Botham P.Eng., Principal Engineer with NewFields Canada Mining & Environment ULC. This is in addition to Ms. Dinara Nussipakynova, P.Geo., Principal Geologist with AMC Consultants (Canada) Ltd. who estimated the Mineral Resources. All QPs have reviewed the technical content of the January 9, 2023, news release for the Silver Sand deposit and have approved its dissemination. The Silver Sand PEA is based on the updated Mineral Resource Estimate which was reported on November 28, 2022. The effective date of the 2022 Mineral Resource Estimate for Silver Sand is 31 October 2022. The cut-off applied for reporting the pit-constrained Mineral Resources is 30 g/t silver. Assumptions made to derive a cut-off grade included mining costs, processing costs and recoveries and were obtained from comparable industry situations. The model is depleted for historical mining activities. Mineral Resources are constrained by optimized pit shells at a silver price of US$22.50 per ounce, silver metallurgical recovery of 91%, silver payability of 99%, open pit mining cost of US$2.6/t, processing cost of US$16/t, G&A cost of US$2/t, and slope angle of 44-47 degrees. Key assumptions used for pit optimization for the PEA mining pit include silver price of US$22.50 per ounce, silver metallurgical recovery of 91%, silver payability of 99%, open pit mining cost of US$2.6/t, incremental mining cost of US$0.04/t (per 10 m bench), processing cost of US$16/t, tailing storage facility operating cost of US$0.7/t, G&A cost of US$2/t, royalty of 6.00%, mining recovery of 92%, dilution of 8%, and cut-off grade of 30 g/t silver.

Forward-looking statements or information are subject to a variety of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual events or results to differ from those reflected in the forward-looking statements or information, including, without limitation, risks relating to: global economic and social impact of COVID-19; fluctuating equity prices, bond prices, commodity prices; calculation of resources, reserves and mineralization, general economic conditions, foreign exchange risks, interest rate risk, foreign investment risk; loss of key personnel; conflicts of interest; dependence on management, uncertainties relating to the availability and costs of financing needed in the future, environmental risks, operations and political conditions, the regulatory environment in Bolivia and Canada; risks associated with community relations and corporate social responsibility, and other factors described under the heading "Risk Factors" in the Company's Annual Information Form for the year ended June 30, 2022 and its other public filings.  

This list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the Company's forward-looking statements or information.  

The forward-looking statements are necessarily based on a number of estimates, assumptions, beliefs, expectations and opinions of management as of the date of this news release that, while considered reasonable by management, are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. These estimates, assumptions, beliefs, expectations and options include, but are not limited to, those related to the Company's ability to carry on current and future operations, including: the duration and effects of COVID-19 on our operations and workforce; development and exploration activities; the timing, extent, duration and economic viability of such operations; the accuracy and reliability of estimates, projections, forecasts, studies and assessments; the Company's ability to meet or achieve estimates, projections and forecasts; the stabilization of the political climate in Bolivia; the Company's ability to obtain and maintain social license at its mineral properties; the availability and cost of inputs; the price and market for outputs; foreign exchange rates; taxation levels; the timely receipt of necessary approvals or permits, including the ratification and approval of the Mining Production Contract with COMIBOL by the Plurinational Legislative Assembly of Bolivia; the ability of the Company's Bolivian partner to convert the exploration licenses at the Carangas Project to AMC; the ability to meet current and future obligations; the ability to obtain timely financing on reasonable terms when required; the current and future social, economic and political conditions; and other assumptions and factors generally associated with the mining industry.

Although the forward-looking statements contained in this news release are based upon what management believes are reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements in this news release are qualified by these cautionary statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on such statements. Other than specifically required by applicable laws, the Company is under no obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter the forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise except as may be required by law. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this news release.

CAUTIONARY NOTE TO US INVESTORS

This news release has been prepared in accordance with the requirements of the securities laws in effect in Canada which differ from the requirements of United States securities laws. The technical and scientific information contained herein has been prepared in accordance with NI 43-101, which differs from the standards adopted by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"). Accordingly, the technical and scientific information contained herein, including any estimates of mineral reserves and mineral resources, may not be comparable to similar information disclosed by U.S. companies subject to the disclosure requirements of the SEC.

Additional information relating to the Company, including the Company's Annual Information Form, can be obtained under the Company's profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com, on EDGAR at www.sec.gov, and on the Company's website at www.newpacificmetals.com.

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SOURCE New Pacific Metals Corp.

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Schedule for Week of January 29, 2023

The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and November Case-Shiller house prices.Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and January vehicle sales.The FOMC meets this week, and the FO…

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The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and November Case-Shiller house prices.

Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and January vehicle sales.

The FOMC meets this week, and the FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate.

----- Monday, January 30th -----

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for January.

----- Tuesday, January 31st -----

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for November. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November.

This graph shows the Year over year change in the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 6.9% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 44.9, down from 45.1 in December.

10:00 AM: The Q4 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.

----- Wednesday, February 1st -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 170,000 payroll jobs added in January, down from 235,000 added in December.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in construction spending.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Job openings decreased in November to 10.458 million from 10.512 million in October

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.0, down from 48.4 in December.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 14.3 million SAAR in January, up from 13.3 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the December sales rate.

----- Thursday, February 2nd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 200 thousand initial claims, up from 186 thousand last week.
----- Friday, February 3rd -----

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 185,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.6%.

There were 223,000 jobs added in December, and the unemployment rate was at 3.5%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The pandemic employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, as of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned and are now 1.24 million above pre-pandemic levels.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.3, up from 49.6 in December.

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US gov’t $1.5T debt interest will be equal 3X Bitcoin market cap in 2023

The U.S. will pay over $1 trillion in debt interest next year, the equivalent of three or more Bitcoin market caps at current prices.

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The U.S. will pay over $1 trillion in debt interest next year, the equivalent of three or more Bitcoin market caps at current prices.

Commentators believe that Bitcoin (BTC) bulls do not need to wait long for the United States to start printing money again.

The latest analysis of U.S. macroeconomic data has led one market strategist to predict quantitative tightening (QT) ending to avoid a “catastrophic debt crisis.”

Analyst: Fed will have “no choice” with rate cuts

The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to remove liquidity from the financial system to fight inflation, reversing years of COVID-19-era money printing.

While interest rate hikes look set to continue declining in scope, some now believe that the Fed will soon have only one option — to halt the process altogether.

“Why the Fed will have no choice but to cut or risk a catastrophic debt crisis,” Sven Henrich, founder of NorthmanTrader, summarized on Jan. 27.

“Higher for longer is a fantasy not rooted in math reality.”

Henrich uploaded a chart showing interest payments on current U.S. government expenditure, now hurtling toward $1 trillion a year.

A dizzying number, the interest comes from U.S. government debt being over $31 trillion, with the Fed printing trillions of dollars since March 2020. Since then, interest payments have increased by 42%, Henrich noted.

The phenomenon has not gone unnoticed elsewhere in crypto circles. Popular Twitter account Wall Street Silver compared the interest payments as a portion of U.S. tax revenue.

“US paid $853 Billion in Interest for $31 Trillion Debt in 2022; More than Defense Budget in 2023. If the Fed keeps rates at these levels (or higher) we will be at $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion in interest paid on the debt,” it wrote.

“The US govt collects about $4.9 trillion in taxes.”
Interest rates on U.S. government debt chart (screenshot). Source: Wall Street Silver/ Twitter

Such a scenario might be music to the ears of those with significant Bitcoin exposure. Periods of “easy” liquidity have corresponded with increased appetite for risk assets across the mainstream investment world.

The Fed’s unwinding of that policy accompanied Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market, and a “pivot” in interest rate hikes is thus seen by many as the first sign of the “good” times returning.

Crypto pain before pleasure?

Not everyone, however, agrees that the impact on risk assets, including crypto, will be all-out positive prior to that.

Related: Bitcoin ‘so bullish’ at $23K as analyst reveals new BTC price metrics

As Cointelegraph reported, ex-BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believes that chaos will come first, tanking Bitcoin and altcoins to new lows before any sort of long-term renaissance kicks in.

If the Fed faces a complete lack of options to avoid a meltdown, Hayes believes that the damage will have already been done before QT gives way to quantitative easing.

“This scenario is less ideal because it would mean that everyone who is buying risky assets now would be in store for massive drawdowns in performance. 2023 could be just as bad as 2022 until the Fed pivots,” he wrote in a blog post this month.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Stay Ahead of GDP: 3 Charts to Become a Smarter Trader

When concerns of a recession are front and center, investors tend to pay more attention to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The Q4 2022 GDP report…

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When concerns of a recession are front and center, investors tend to pay more attention to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The Q4 2022 GDP report showed the U.S. economy grew by 2.9% in the quarter, and Wall Street wasn't disappointed. The day the report was released, the market closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJIA) up 0.61%, the S&P 500 index ($SPX) up 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) up 1.76%. Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Energy were the top-performing S&P sectors.

Add to the GDP report strong earnings from Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) and a mega announcement from Chevron Corp. (CVX)—raising dividends and a $75 billion buyback round—and you get a strong day in the stock markets.

Why is the GDP Report Important?

If a country's GDP is growing faster than expected, it could be a positive indication of economic strength. It means that consumer spending, business investment, and exports, among other factors, are going strong. But the GDP is just one indicator, and one indicator doesn't necessarily tell the whole story. It's a good idea to look at other indicators, such as the unemployment rate, inflation, and consumer sentiment, before making a conclusion.

Inflation appears to be cooling, but the labor market continues to be strong. The Fed has stated in many of its previous meetings that it'll be closely watching the labor market. So that'll be a sticky point as we get close to the next Fed meeting. Consumer spending is also strong, according to the GDP report. But that could have been because of increased auto sales and spending on services such as health care, personal care, and utilities. Retail sales released earlier in January indicated that holiday sales were lower.

There's a chance we could see retail sales slowing in Q1 2023 as some households run out of savings that were accumulated during the pandemic. This is something to keep an eye on going forward, as a slowdown in retail sales could mean increases in inventories. And this is something that could decrease economic activity.

Overall, the recent GDP report indicates the U.S. economy is strong, although some economists feel we'll probably see some downside in 2023, though not a recession. But the one drawback of the GDP report is that it's lagging. It comes out after the fact. Wouldn't it be great if you had known this ahead of time so you could position your trades to take advantage of the rally? While there's no way to know with 100% accuracy, there are ways to identify probable events.

3 Ways To Stay Ahead of the Curve

Instead of waiting for three months to get next quarter's GDP report, you can gauge the potential strength or weakness of the overall U.S. economy. Steven Sears, in his book The Indomitable Investor, suggested looking at these charts:

  • Copper prices
  • High-yield corporate bonds
  • Small-cap stocks

Copper: An Economic Indicator

You may not hear much about copper, but it's used in the manufacture of several goods and in construction. Given that manufacturing and construction make up a big chunk of economic activity, the red metal is more important than you may have thought. If you look at the chart of copper futures ($COPPER) you'll see that, in October 2022, the price of copper was trading sideways, but, in November, its price rose and trended quite a bit higher. This would have been an indication of a strengthening economy.

CHART 1: COPPER CONTINUOUS FUTURES CONTRACTS. Copper prices have been rising since November 2022. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

High-Yield Bonds: Risk On Indicator

The higher the risk, the higher the yield. That's the premise behind high-yield bonds. In short, companies that are leveraged, smaller, or just starting to grow may not have the solid balance sheets that more established companies are likely to have. If the economy slows down, investors are likely to sell the high-yield bonds and pick up the safer U.S. Treasury bonds.

Why the flight to safety? It's because when the economy is sluggish, the companies that issue the high-yield bonds tend to find it difficult to service their debts. When the economy is expanding, the opposite happens—they tend to perform better.

The chart below of the Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index ($DJCB) shows that, since the end of October 2022, the index trended higher. Similar to copper prices, high-yield corporate bond activity was also indicating economic expansion. You'll see similar action in charts of high-yield bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK).

CHART 2: HIGH-YIELD BONDS TRENDING HIGHER. The Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index ($DJCB) has been trending higher since end of October 2022.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

Small-Cap Stocks: They're Sensitive

Pull up a chart of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and you'll see similar price action (see chart 3). Since mid-October, small-cap stocks (the Russell 2000 index is made up of 2000 small companies) have been moving higher.

CHART 3: SMALL-CAP STOCKS TRENDING HIGHER. When the economy is expanding, small-cap stocks trend higher.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

Three's Company

If all three of these indicators are showing strength, you can expect the GDP number to be strong. There are times when the GDP number may not impact the markets, but, when inflation is a problem and the Fed is trying to curb it by raising interest rates, the GDP number tends to impact the markets.

This scenario is likely to play out in 2023, so it would be worth your while to set up a GDP Tracker ChartList. Want a live link to the charts used in this article? They're all right here.


Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan

Director, Site Content

StockCharts.com

 

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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