New measures agreed to strengthen the partnership between Mongolia and China
New measures agreed to strengthen the partnership between Mongolia and China
PR Newswire
ULAANBAATAR, Mongolia, Aug. 9, 2022
ULAANBAATAR, Mongolia, Aug. 9, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — A series of measures have been agreed during a visit by the Chinese Fo…
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New measures agreed to strengthen the partnership between Mongolia and China
PR Newswire
ULAANBAATAR, Mongolia, Aug. 9, 2022
ULAANBAATAR, Mongolia, Aug. 9, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- A series of measures have been agreed during a visit by the Chinese Foreign Minister to Mongolia that will act to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries.
During his visit, which began on Sunday and concluded yesterday, Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Mongolian President U. Khurelsukh, Prime Minister L. Oyun-Erdene and Parliament Speaker G. Zandanshatar, among others.
Agreements were concluded on the following:
- Accelerating the delivery of the Erdeneburen hydropower plant project
- Intensifying the construction of the Gashuunsukhait – Gantsmod railroad, which connects critical border points between the two countries
- Stabilising the frequency of daily train services coming to Mongolia from China's sea ports
- Increasing the number of train exchanges and overall border capacity at the Zamyn Uud-Erlian border point and overall border capacity
During the talks, the goal was set of doubling bilateral trade turnover to USD 10 billion. Discussions also addressed the possibility of agreeing freer travel between Mongolia and China, with a particular focus on this aiding the humanitarian sector and Mongolian citizens who study in China, who are stuck outside of the country due to the pandemic-related border shutdown. The connection of the Khangi-Mandal port by railroad was also discussed during the visit.
Following a press conference with the Chinese Foreign Minister held on Monday, Mongolian Foreign Affairs Minister B. Battsetseg said:
"The agreements reached during this visit will strengthen the strategic relationship that already exists between our two countries, deepening our co-operation across a range of important sectors.
"New support for enhancing capacity at our ports and increasing Mongolian domestic energy production will provide further support to Mongolia's economic development as our recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic continues, in line with the objectives set by the New Recovery Policy."
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SOURCE Government of Mongolia
Uncategorized
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast— September 2023
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)…
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This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2023. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
The New York Fed model forecasts use data released through 2023:Q2, augmented for 2023:Q3 with the median forecasts for real GDP growth and core PCE inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), as well as the yields on ten-year Treasury securities and Baa-rated corporate bonds based on 2023:Q3 averages up to August 30. Moreover, starting in 2021:Q4, the expected federal funds rate between one and six quarters into the future is restricted to equal the corresponding median point forecast from the latest available Survey of Primary Dealers (SPD) in the corresponding quarter. The current projection can be found here.
The change in the forecast relative to June reflects the fact that the economy remains resilient in spite of the increasingly restrictive stance of monetary policy. Output growth is projected to be almost 1 percentage point higher in 2023 than forecasted in June (1.9 versus 1.0 percent) and somewhat higher than June for the rest of the forecast horizon (1.1, 0.7, and 1.2 percent in 2024, 2025, and 2026, versus 0.7, 0.4, and 0.9 in June, respectively). The probability of a not-so-soft recession, as defined by four-quarter GDP growth dipping below -1 percent by the end of 2023, has become negligible at 4.6 percent, down from 26 percent in June. According to the model, much of the resilience in the economy so far stems from the surprising strength in the financial sector, which counteracts the effects of the tightening in monetary policy. Inflation projections are close to what they were in June: 3.7 percent for 2023 (unchanged from the previous forecast), 2.2 percent for 2024 (down from 2.5 percent), and 2.0 percent for both 2025 and 2026 (down from 2.2 and 2.1 percent, respectively). The model still sees inflation returning close to the FOMC’s longer-run goal by the end of next year.
The output gap is projected to be somewhat higher over the forecast horizon than it was in June, consistent with the fact that the surprising strength of the economy is mainly driven by demand factors such as financial shocks, as opposed to supply factors. As in the June forecast, the gap gradually declines from its current positive value to a slightly negative value by 2025. The real natural rate of interest is estimated at 2.5 percent for 2023 (up from 2.2 percent in June), declining to 2.2 percent in 2024, 1.9 percent in 2025, and 1.6 percent in 2026.
Forecast Comparison
| Forecast Period | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date of Forecast | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 |
| GDP growth (Q4/Q4) | 1.9 (0.2, 3.6) | 1.0 (-1.9, 4.0) | 1.1 (-4.0, 6.3) | 0.7 (-4.2, 5.7) | 0.7 (-4.4, 5.8) | 0.4 (-4.7, 5.5) | 1.2 (-4.2, 6.6) | 0.9 (-4.5, 6.3) |
| Core PCE inflation (Q4/Q4) | 3.7 (3.4, 3.9) | 3.7 (3.3, 4.2) | 2.2 (1.5, 3.0) | 2.5 (1.6, 3.3) | 2.0 (1.1, 2.9) | 2.2 (1.2, 3.1) | 2.0 (1.0, 3.0) | 2.1 (1.1, 3.2) |
| Real natural rate of interest (Q4) | 2.5 (1.3, 3.7) | 2.2 (1.0, 3.5) | 2.2 (0.8, 3.7) | 1.8 (0.3, 3.2) | 1.9 (0.3, 3.4) | 1.5 (-0.1, 3.0) | 1.6 (-0.0, 3.3) | 1.3 (-0.4, 3.0) |
Notes: This table lists the forecasts of output growth, core PCE inflation, and the real natural rate of interest from the September 2023 and June 2023 forecasts. The numbers outside parentheses are the mean forecasts, and the numbers in parentheses are the 68 percent bands.
Forecasts of Output Growth
Source: Authors’ calculations.
Notes: These two panels depict output growth. In the top panel, the black line indicates actual data and the red line shows the model forecasts. The shaded areas mark the uncertainty associated with our forecasts at 50, 60, 70, 80, and 90 percent probability intervals. In the bottom panel, the blue line shows the current forecast (quarter-to-quarter, annualized), and the gray line shows the June 2023 forecast.
Forecasts of Inflation
Source: Authors’ calculations.
Notes: These two panels depict core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation. In the top panel, the black line indicates actual data and the red line shows the model forecasts. The shaded areas mark the uncertainty associated with our forecasts at 50, 60, 70, 80, and 90 percent probability intervals. In the bottom panel, the blue line shows the current forecast (quarter-to-quarter, annualized), and the gray line shows the June 2023 forecast.
Real Natural Rate of Interest
Source: Authors’ calculations.
Notes: The black line shows the model’s mean estimate of the real natural rate of interest; the red line shows the model forecast of the real natural rate. The shaded area marks the uncertainty associated with the forecasts at 50, 60, 70, 80, and 90 percent probability intervals.
Marco Del Negro is an economic research advisor in Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.
Pranay Gundam is a research analyst in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.
Donggyu Lee is a research economist in Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.
Ramya Nallamotu is a research analyst in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.
Brian Pacula is a research analyst in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.
How to cite this post:
Marco Del Negro, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, Ramya Nallamotu, and Brian Pacula, “The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast— September 2023,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, September 22, 2023, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/09/the-new-york-fed-dsge-model-forecast-september-2023/.
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this post are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author(s).
Uncategorized
The Big Picture of the housing market, and its almost complete bifurcation, in 3 easy graphs
– by New Deal democratI want to spend some time commenting on the broader issue of why the public perceives that inflation is still rampant, even though…
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- by New Deal democrat
International
Canadian dollar edges higher as retail sales rebound
Canada retail sales climb 2% The Canadian dollar has posted losses on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3446, down 0.28%. Canada’s…
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- Canada retail sales climb 2%
The Canadian dollar has posted losses on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3446, down 0.28%.
Canada’s retail sales jump
Canada’s retail sales rebounded in impressive fashion on Friday. Retail sales in July jumped 2% y/y, following a -0.6% reading in June and beating the 0.5% consensus estimate. On a monthly basis, retail sales rose 0.3%, up from 0.1% in June but shy of the consensus estimate of 0.4%. The good news was tempered by the August estimate, which stands at -0.3% m/m and would be the first decline since March. The Canadian dollar showed little reaction to the retail sales release.
The Bank of Canada doesn’t meet again until October 25th and policy makers will have plenty of data to monitor in the meantime. The BoC has been walking a tightrope that will be familiar to most central banks, that of trying to balance the risks of over and under-tightening. The difficulty in finding the right balance was highlighted in the BoC summary of deliberations of the policy meeting earlier this month.
The BoC decided to hold the benchmark rate at 5.0% after concluding that earlier rate hikes were having an effect and slowing economic growth. The summary indicated that policy makers were concerned that a pause might send the wrong message that rate cuts might be on the way. With inflation still above the BOC’s target, the central bank is not looking at rate cuts and stressed at the September meeting that rate hikes were still on the table and that inflation remained too high.
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USD/CAD Technical
- USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3468. The next resistance line is 1.3553
- 1.3408 and 1.3323 are the next support lines
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