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NCCI’s Annual Insights Symposium (AIS) 2022–AIS Highlights Report Now Available

NCCI’s Annual Insights Symposium (AIS) 2022–AIS Highlights Report Now Available
PR Newswire
BOCA RATON, Fla., May 12, 2022

BOCA RATON, Fla., May 12, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Experts from the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI) shared a w…

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NCCI's Annual Insights Symposium (AIS) 2022--AIS Highlights Report Now Available

PR Newswire

BOCA RATON, Fla., May 12, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Experts from the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI) shared a wide range of insights on how the workers compensation system is responding to workplace and workforce changes. The full AIS Highlights Report is now available.

"The demand for insights has never been greater," said NCCI President and CEO Bill Donnell.

NCCI shared its in-depth State of the Line Report and other research at its newly renamed Annual Insights Symposium 2022 from May 9 through 11 in Orlando, FL. Experts examined how catastrophe modeling works in workers compensation, the potential impacts of the Great Reshuffle on injury frequency, the implications of rapidly rising wages, and the threat of renewed medical cost inflation. Other speakers addressed inclusive leadership, the economics of workers compensation, and the latest thinking in artificial intelligence.

"The business environment is changing, and the pace of change is quickening, so the demand for insights has never been greater," said NCCI President and CEO Bill Donnell. "NCCI is expanding its efforts to deliver timely and valuable insights to help keep the system healthy."

Here are some highlights from NCCI's Annual Insights Symposium 2022:

Bill Donnell, CPCU, President and CEO, NCCI
Key Insights:

  • The workers compensation system is remarkably strong and resilient. Stakeholders in the system can take pride in how the industry has responded during the past two years.
  • The business environment is changing, and the pace of change is quickening, so the demand for insights has never been greater. NCCI is expanding its efforts to deliver timely and valuable insights to keep the system healthy.
  • The workers compensation system is challenged to step up once again. That means using data more effectively and keeping the focus on serving injured workers and their families.

"Our industry must stay true to its noble responsibility: helping injured workers and their families. This is why we exist," said Bill Donnell, President and CEO, NCCI.   

Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA, Chief Actuary, NCCI
State of the Line Report
Key Insights:

  • The workers compensation line is strong and healthy.
  • The system saw its eighth consecutive year of underwriting profitability with a calendar year combined ratio of 87, outperforming other property and casualty lines.
  • Net written premiums rose about 1% in 2021.
  • Lost-time claim frequency data suggests the long-term decline continues, despite a rise in frequency in 2021. Since 2019, frequency has declined slightly.
  • There is no change expected in medical and indemnity claims severity in 2021.
  • There are potential challenges ahead as medical costs could experience inflationary pressure.
  • Workers compensation reserves are robust. Reserves grew to $16 billion redundant as of year-end 2021.

"Strong employment and significant wage growth are fueling workers compensation payroll increases," said NCCI Chief Actuary Donna Glenn. "We have a remarkably strong and healthy system right now."

Nadege Bernard-Ahrendts, FCAS, Practice Leader and Senior Actuary, NCCI
COVID-19 Update
Key Insights:

  • The number of COVID-19 claims declined in 2021 with indemnity-only claims making up more than 50 percent of those claims.
  • Most COVID claims continue to be small. However, claims of more than $100,000 account for 1.2% of claims and 66% of losses. Nearly half of the most complex claims—those of more than $500,000—involved workers who died.
  • Healthcare workers remain the most impacted by COVID-19 even as the number of impacted workers in nursing/convalescent homes declined substantially in 2021.

"The pandemic continues to impact the workers compensation system. We expect the impact will continue to lessen in future years," said Nadege Bernard-Ahrendts, Practice Leader and Senior Actuary, NCCI.

Katherine Williamson, FCAS, MAAA, Director, Data Science, NCCI
Workers Compensation Catastrophes: Past, Present, and Future
Key Insights:

  • NCCI now defines a catastrophe as any single event with $50 million or more of workers compensation losses.
  • NCCI has concluded that the current catastrophe load in ratemaking is sufficient.
  • While uncertainty always remains, the system has a much greater understanding of pandemics and other extreme risks compared to two years ago.

"NCCI has taken a fresh look at how catastrophes figure into ratemaking for workers compensation in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic," said Katherine Williamson, Director, Data Science, NCCI.

Leonard F. Herk, PhD, Executive Director and Senior Economist, NCCI; and Carolyn Wise, ACAS, MAAA, Manager and Associate Actuary, NCCI
The Great Reshuffle
Key Insights:

  • Today's labor market has more short-tenured workers, more remote workers, and a different industry mix of employment than before the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Short-tenured workers have a higher frequency of job-related injuries than full-tenured workers, and the difference in injury rates varies greatly across industries.
  • Remote workers appear to have a lower frequency of job-related injuries than on-site workers, and this difference appears not to vary across industries.
  • Changes in the industry mix of employment—especially employment shifts between lower and higher severity classes—can have complex effects on aggregate frequency.

"While there are more short-tenured workers on the job today than two years ago, there were a lot of short-tenured workers even before the COVID pandemic," said Leonard F. Herk, Executive Director and Senior Economist, NCCI.

"The Great Reshuffle may lead to short-term frequency anomalies. However, it is not likely to cause a turn in the long-term frequency trend," said Carolyn Wise, Manager and Associate Actuary, NCCI.

Sean Cooper, FCAS, MAAA, Practice Leader and Senior Actuary, NCCI; and Raji Chadarevian, Director, Medical Regulation and Informatics, NCCI
The Medical Dilemma
Key Insights:

  • Medical inflation in workers compensation has been moderate for the past decade. But with the recent dramatic rise in consumer prices, concerns have emerged about medical inflation.
  • Changes in medical claims costs are driven by two factors: the price of medical services and utilization, which measures the mix and number of services provided to an injured worker.
  • NCCI's most recent data shows drug costs are declining, physician costs are up slightly, and facility costs are rising in the workers compensation system.

"While general inflation is up, workers compensation medical trends have been moderate and the forecast remains relatively moderate in the near future," said Sean Cooper, Practice Leader and Senior Actuary, NCCI.

"Prices are only half the story. Prices matter. Utilization matters also," said Raji Chadarevian, Director, Medical Regulation and Informatics, NCCI.

Robert P. Hartwig, PhD, CPCU, Clinical Associate Professor of Finance, Darla Moore School of Business, University of South Carolina
Top 5 Ways COVID Changed the Economics of Workers Compensation—For Better or Worse
Key Insights:

  • Despite many analogies, today's economy and operating environment for insurers couldn't be more different from the late 1970s to early 1980s.
  • The "R" word: Recession is increasingly likely but still avoidable.
  • Extreme volatility in the investment environment is both an opportunity and a concern for insurers, especially in long-tail lines such as workers compensation.
  • The economic reverberations from COVID will last years beyond the end of the pandemic itself.

"Economic uncertainty has Wall Street climbing its proverbial 'Wall of Worry,' and P/C insurers are along for the ride," said Robert P. Hartwig, Clinical Associate Professor of Finance, Darla Moore School of Business, University of South Carolina.

Roger Fergusonformer President and CEO, TIAA; former Head of Financial Services, Swiss Re; and former Vice Chairman, Federal Reserve System
Key Insights:

  • Empathy may be the most important leadership trait. To get people to follow you, they have to know you. Empathy is a force multiplier for leadership. 
  • Crisis situations require leaders to show fortitude, leverage experts in the business, demonstrate empathy, and have clarity about goals.
  • To attract talented young people to insurance, start with the mission of insurance. We make the world a better place. Help prospective employees understand the link between the technical aspects of insurance products and how we actually improve people's lives. 
  • He forecasts that the potential for a recession is high but anticipates it may be relatively mild and short in duration. 

"Research shows that teams that are more diverse and inclusive get better results," said Roger Ferguson, former President and CEO, TIAA; former Head of Financial Services, Swiss Re; and former Vice Chairman, Federal Reserve System. "It's not just about having diversity; you also need inclusion. Diversity is getting invited to the party. Inclusion is getting asked to dance."  

James Guszcza, Research Affiliate, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University
Human Factors: Expanding the Science of Predictive Analytics and Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Key Insights:

  • Human-machine hybrid intelligence is a better framework to guide practice than "AI."
  • The focus of hybrid-intelligence design is real-world results, not machine outputs.
  • Hybrid-intelligence design goes beyond machine learning to take into account human values, needs, and relative cognitive strengths and limitations.

"Without smart design, machine learning can result in artificial stupidity rather than artificial intelligence," said James Guszcza, Research Affiliate, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University.

The full AIS Highlights Report is now available. Check out session summaries and the complete workers compensation State of the Line Report and State of the Line Guide, now available at ncci.com/AIS.

About NCCI
Founded in 1923, the mission of the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI) is to foster a healthy workers compensation system. In support of this mission, NCCI gathers data, analyzes industry trends, and provides objective insurance rate and loss cost recommendations. These activities—combined with a comprehensive set of tools and services—make NCCI the source you trust for workers compensation information.

Media Contact:
Cristine Pike
Director, Public Relations and Communications, NCCI

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Key shipping company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

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The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Key shipping company files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

Published

on

The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Tight inventory and frustrated buyers challenge agents in Virginia

With inventory a little more than half of what it was pre-pandemic, agents are struggling to find homes for clients in Virginia.

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No matter where you are in the state, real estate agents in Virginia are facing low inventory conditions that are creating frustrating scenarios for their buyers.

“I think people are getting used to the interest rates where they are now, but there is just a huge lack of inventory,” said Chelsea Newcomb, a RE/MAX Realty Specialists agent based in Charlottesville. “I have buyers that are looking, but to find a house that you love enough to pay a high price for — and to be at over a 6.5% interest rate — it’s just a little bit harder to find something.”

Newcomb said that interest rates and higher prices, which have risen by more than $100,000 since March 2020, according to data from Altos Research, have caused her clients to be pickier when selecting a home.

“When rates and prices were lower, people were more willing to compromise,” Newcomb said.

Out in Wise, Virginia, near the westernmost tip of the state, RE/MAX Cavaliers agent Brett Tiller and his clients are also struggling to find suitable properties.

“The thing that really stands out, especially compared to two years ago, is the lack of quality listings,” Tiller said. “The slightly more upscale single-family listings for move-up buyers with children looking for their forever home just aren’t coming on the market right now, and demand is still very high.”

Statewide, Virginia had a 90-day average of 8,068 active single-family listings as of March 8, 2024, down from 14,471 single-family listings in early March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Altos Research. That represents a decrease of 44%.

Virginia-Inventory-Line-Chart-Virginia-90-day-Single-Family

In Newcomb’s base metro area of Charlottesville, there were an average of only 277 active single-family listings during the same recent 90-day period, compared to 892 at the onset of the pandemic. In Wise County, there were only 56 listings.

Due to the demand from move-up buyers in Tiller’s area, the average days on market for homes with a median price of roughly $190,000 was just 17 days as of early March 2024.

“For the right home, which is rare to find right now, we are still seeing multiple offers,” Tiller said. “The demand is the same right now as it was during the heart of the pandemic.”

According to Tiller, the tight inventory has caused homebuyers to spend up to six months searching for their new property, roughly double the time it took prior to the pandemic.

For Matt Salway in the Virginia Beach metro area, the tight inventory conditions are creating a rather hot market.

“Depending on where you are in the area, your listing could have 15 offers in two days,” the agent for Iron Valley Real Estate Hampton Roads | Virginia Beach said. “It has been crazy competition for most of Virginia Beach, and Norfolk is pretty hot too, especially for anything under $400,000.”

According to Altos Research, the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News housing market had a seven-day average Market Action Index score of 52.44 as of March 14, making it the seventh hottest housing market in the country. Altos considers any Market Action Index score above 30 to be indicative of a seller’s market.

Virginia-Beach-Metro-Area-Market-Action-Index-Line-Chart-Virginia-Beach-Norfolk-Newport-News-VA-NC-90-day-Single-Family

Further up the coastline on the vacation destination of Chincoteague Island, Long & Foster agent Meghan O. Clarkson is also seeing a decent amount of competition despite higher prices and interest rates.

“People are taking their time to actually come see things now instead of buying site unseen, and occasionally we see some seller concessions, but the traffic and the demand is still there; you might just work a little longer with people because we don’t have anything for sale,” Clarkson said.

“I’m busy and constantly have appointments, but the underlying frenzy from the height of the pandemic has gone away, but I think it is because we have just gotten used to it.”

While much of the demand that Clarkson’s market faces is for vacation homes and from retirees looking for a scenic spot to retire, a large portion of the demand in Salway’s market comes from military personnel and civilians working under government contracts.

“We have over a dozen military bases here, plus a bunch of shipyards, so the closer you get to all of those bases, the easier it is to sell a home and the faster the sale happens,” Salway said.

Due to this, Salway said that existing-home inventory typically does not come on the market unless an employment contract ends or the owner is reassigned to a different base, which is currently contributing to the tight inventory situation in his market.

Things are a bit different for Tiller and Newcomb, who are seeing a decent number of buyers from other, more expensive parts of the state.

“One of the crazy things about Louisa and Goochland, which are kind of like suburbs on the western side of Richmond, is that they are growing like crazy,” Newcomb said. “A lot of people are coming in from Northern Virginia because they can work remotely now.”

With a Market Action Index score of 50, it is easy to see why people are leaving the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria market for the Charlottesville market, which has an index score of 41.

In addition, the 90-day average median list price in Charlottesville is $585,000 compared to $729,900 in the D.C. area, which Newcomb said is also luring many Virginia homebuyers to move further south.

Median-Price-D.C.-vs.-Charlottesville-Line-Chart-90-day-Single-Family

“They are very accustomed to higher prices, so they are super impressed with the prices we offer here in the central Virginia area,” Newcomb said.

For local buyers, Newcomb said this means they are frequently being outbid or outpriced.

“A couple who is local to the area and has been here their whole life, they are just now starting to get their mind wrapped around the fact that you can’t get a house for $200,000 anymore,” Newcomb said.

As the year heads closer to spring, triggering the start of the prime homebuying season, agents in Virginia feel optimistic about the market.

“We are seeing seasonal trends like we did up through 2019,” Clarkson said. “The market kind of soft launched around President’s Day and it is still building, but I expect it to pick right back up and be in full swing by Easter like it always used to.”

But while they are confident in demand, questions still remain about whether there will be enough inventory to support even more homebuyers entering the market.

“I have a lot of buyers starting to come off the sidelines, but in my office, I also have a lot of people who are going to list their house in the next two to three weeks now that the weather is starting to break,” Newcomb said. “I think we are going to have a good spring and summer.”

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