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My 2023 Stock Market Forecast

First of all, happy new year!!! I hope 2023 turns out to be a healthy and prosperous year for all!As we look back on 2022, it was anything but that. We…



First of all, happy new year!!! I hope 2023 turns out to be a healthy and prosperous year for all!

As we look back on 2022, it was anything but that. We started the year on a very sour note and things went downhill from there - at least from a stock market perspective. There is reason for hope as we open 2023, but we'll need a few things to change before we can truly move higher.

Large Caps Must Rebound

Our major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are driven mostly by large cap performance. These are two market-cap-weighted indices, meaning that large cap stocks like Apple, Inc. (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) will carry a heavy burden. The following six companies represent more than 20% of the S&P 500 and nearly 42% of the NASDAQ 100. If they don't rebound and begin to outperform, it'll likely be another difficult year ahead. Here's a quick glance at each of the four on long-term monthly charts:


AAPL remains in a long-term uptrend, which is good news. However, it did recently print a negative divergence. When we saw the negative divergence in 2008, we know what happened. It was a brutal trip down to the 50-month SMA to "reset" the PPO at its zero line. Right now, AAPL's 50-month SMA is at 107. AAPL did break below its 2022 support of 129.50 late last week. If it's unable to right the ship, a potential trip to the 50-month SMA cannot be ruled out.


The monthly PPO was very stretched on MSFT as it moved unabatedly higher for a decade. The 2022 selloff was a necessary one, but now that MSFT has seen a 50-month SMA test, I feel better about this one advancing in 2023.


AMZN was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the COVID-19 pandemic. At its March 2020 pandemic-driven low, AMZN traded at 81.11. After rising to 177.20 in early-September 2020, well over a doubling of its stock price in just 6 months, we had one more move higher to 188.21 in July 2021. From there, however, it's been a ski slope on AMZN's chart. On Friday, AMZN closed out 2022 at 84.00 - almost exactly where its 2020 pandemic run began.


Alphabet (GOOGL) has seen a steady drop in 2022, but it has crushed many of its internet peers. GOOGL remains a clear leader in the space. However, the internet group ($DJUSNS), as a whole, was the fourth worst performing industry group (out of 104). GOOGL has now tested its monthly PPO centerline and its 50-month SMA.


After a massive run higher in TSLA shares, a head & shoulders top appeared.....and it's been broken now to the downside. Since neckline support gave way in November, TSLA has seen nearly a 50% additional drop. I don't know if December's huge decline of 37% has marked a bottom, but the measurement has arguably been achieved. TSLA is one of the weakest stocks in the entire market right now, but my gut tells me the chart will be much different one year from now.


NVDA has seen this type of decline before - during the Q4 2018 trade war. Many semiconductor stocks were devastated during that period, but the 50-month SMA provided support. Here we are, just a few years later, at a similar spot. The attempt to bounce at the 50-month SMA ran into some difficulty at the now-declining 20-month EMA, so we could be range-bound for awhile.

History tells us that this is the time to BUY these mega cap leaders, not sell. Do they have further downside? Quite possibly, but their long-term track records are undeniable. I remember so many folks saying "I want to see a pullback in these names" as we closed out 2022 in record high territory. But now that we've seen anywhere from a 30%-70% drop in these 6 stocks, no one wants to touch them. That's how losing money affects our psyche.

Currently, technical conditions are not looking good for the NASDAQ 100 and its component stocks, but all is not lost.

Seasonality To The Rescue?

The final month of each calendar quarter (so the 3rd, 6th, 9th, and 12th calendar months) historically has not been kind to technology. Here's a breakdown of the average outperformance or underperformance of technology vs. the S&P 500 this century during the 3 months within any quarter:

  • Month 1: +2.5%
  • Month 2: +3.8%
  • Month 3: +0.4%

Technology shows a history of selling during the 3rd months of our calendar quarters - of which December is one. January tends to be much stronger for tech stocks and the NASDAQ as a whole. Over the past 50 years, the NASDAQ has averaged gaining 2.39% in January, while the S&P 500 has averaged gaining just 1.05% over the same period. The "January Effect" is a powerful indicator of annual performance. It worked perfectly again in 2022.

If you want to know how the stock market will perform in 2023, it could be as simple as watching the 6 stocks above over the next month. Do they show signs of bullishness? Do they continue to trend lower? Of course, these won't be our only signals, but certainly ones to watch.

2023 Market Forecast

I will be providing my 2023 forecast this Saturday, January 7th at MarketVision 2023 and you won't want to miss it. Here were snippets from my last 3 annual market forecasts:

MarketVision 2020:

S&P 500 close, December 31, 2019: 3230.78

My 2020 forecast: Bullish and close of 4040

How the year unfolded: After the devastating effects of COVID-19 in March 2020, the S&P 500 rallied strongly, moving from the pandemic low of 2191.86 to a close of 3756.07. I remained bullish throughout the 2020 pandemic, calling it a "cyclical" bear market.

MarketVision 2021:

S&P 500 close, December 31, 2020: 3756.07

My forecast: Bullish and close of 4756.07 - said we'd gain 1000 points

How the year unfolded: The S&P 500 trended higher throughout 2021, stumbling a bit in September, before a rally in Q4 took us to 4766.18 at year end. The gain was 1010 points. I missed my call by just 10 points.

MarketVision 2022:

S&P 500 close, December 31, 2020: 4766.18

My forecast: Bearish with a downside target of 3500-3800 in the first 3-6 months (said we could see a 20%-25% cyclical bear market)

How the year unfolded: The first six months were rough and the cyclical bear market was confirmed when the decline reached 20% by May. On June 16th, I called a market bottom when the S&P 500 reached 3636. I expected a rally in Q4.

I don't have a crystal ball. But I use technical price action, key fundamentals, history, perspective, and just plain common sense to develop my stock market forecast. Though many have tried to label me a "perma-bull", I hope my 2022 forecast put that to bed. I call what I see, it's as simple as that. It's impossible to be right all of the time. I simply try to manage risk.

And now, it's time to do it again. I want to invite you to join me, along with David Keller, Julius de Kempenaer, and Grayson Roze from, as we provide you our approach to 2023. It'll truly be the best educational event of 2023 and it's a FREE virtual event. Watch from the comfort of your own home! To learn more about the event and to SAVE your seat, CLICK HERE. No one else does an event like this for FREE. No one. By the way, if you can't make the event live, we will send you a recording, so make sure you register!

Get a leg up on others by attending MarketVision 2023 - I'll see you there!

Happy new year and happy trading!


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Australian Banking Association’s cost of living inquiry reveals bank pressure

An analysis of the rising inflation and concurrent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank proved that more than 186 banks in the U.S. are at risk of a similar…



An analysis of the rising inflation and concurrent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank proved that more than 186 banks in the U.S. are at risk of a similar shutdown if depositors decide to withdraw all funds.

The trade association for the Australian banking industry — the Australian Banking Association (ABA) — launched a cost of living inquiry to closely study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chain constraints, geopolitical tensions and more on Australians.

An analysis of the rising inflation and concurrent collapse of three major traditional banks — Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank — recently proved that more than 186 banks in the U.S. are at risk of a similar shutdown if depositors decide to withdraw all funds. The ABA’s inquiry aims to identify ways to ease the cost of living in Australia and the Government’s fiscal policy response.

Consumer price index, percentage change from corresponding quarter in previous year, December 2012 – December 2022. Source:

ABA acknowledged that many Australians would struggle to adjust to a higher cost of living, while it may be easier for some, adding that:

“The ABA notes most customers will manage the higher cost of living and their mortgage commitments by changing their spending patterns, applying their accumulated savings to their higher repayments in anticipation of higher borrowing rates, or refinancing their mortgage.”

One of the most significant pressures for banks was when citizens rolled over from a fixed-rate mortgage to a variable rate. However, ABA urged customers to be proactive and ensure they are getting the best deal for their banking services.

Household savings ratio, December 2014 to December 2022. Source:

Property rent across Australia has also witnessed a steady increase as markets normalized following the end of COVID-19 restrictions. Citizens experiencing financial difficulty can contact their banks and get help, including fees and charges waivers, emergency credit limit increases and deferral of scheduled loan repayments, to name a few.

Related: National Australia Bank makes first-ever cross-border stablecoin transaction

Alongside this attempt to cushion Australians against rising fiat inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Department of the Treasury have been holding private meetings with executives from Coinbase, with discussions revolving around the future of crypto regulation in Australia.

Cointelegraph confirmed from an RBA spokesperson that Coinbase met with the RBA’s payments policy and financial stability departments in mid-March “as part of the Bank’s ongoing liaison with industry.”

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Fed, central banks enhance ‘swap lines’ to combat banking crisis

Currency swap lines have been used during times of crisis in the past, such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.



Currency swap lines have been used during times of crisis in the past, such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.

The United States Federal Reserve has announced a coordinated effort with five other central banks aimed at keeping the U.S. dollar flowing amid a series of banking blowups in the U.S. and in Europe.

The March 19 announcement from the U.S. Fed comes only a few hours after Swiss-based bank Credit Suisse was bought out by UBS for nearly $2 billion as part of an emergency plan led by Swiss authorities to preserve the country's financial stability.

According to the Federal Reserve Board, a plan to shore up liquidity conditions will be carried out through “swap lines” — an agreement between two central banks to exchange currencies.

Swap lines previously served as an emergency-like action for the Federal Reserve in the 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Federal Reserve-initiated swap lines are designed to improve liquidity in dollar funding markets during tough economic conditions.

"To improve the swap lines’ effectiveness in providing U.S. dollar funding, the central banks currently offering U.S. dollar operations have agreed to increase the frequency of seven-day maturity operations from weekly to daily," the Fed said in a statement.

The swap line network will include the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. It will start on March 20 and continue at least until April 30.

The move also comes amid a negative outlook for the U.S. banking system, with Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsing and the New York District of Financial Services (NYDFS) takeover of Signature Bank.

The Federal Reserve however made no direct reference to the recent banking crisis in its statement. Instead, it explained that they implemented the swap line agreement to strengthen the supply of credit to households and businesses:

“The network of swap lines among these central banks is a set of available standing facilities and serve as an important liquidity backstop to ease strains in global funding markets, thereby helping to mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses.”

The latest announcement from the Fed has sparked a debate about whether the arrangement constitutes quantitative easing.

U.S. economist Danielle DiMartino Booth argued however that the arrangements are unrelated to quantitative easing or inflation and that it does not "loosen" financial conditions:

The Federal Reserve has been working to prevent an escalation of the banking crisis.

Related: Banking crisis: What does it mean for crypto?

Last week, the Federal Reserve set up a $25 billion funding program to ensure banks have sufficient liquidity to cover customer needs amid tough market conditions.

A recent analysis by several economists on the SVB collapse found that up to 186 U.S. banks are at risk of insolvency:

“Even if only half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, almost 190 banks are at a potential risk of impairment to insured depositors, with potentially $300 billion of insured deposits at risk.”

Cointelegraph reached out to the Federal Reserve for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

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MGM Shares Surprising Las Vegas Strip News

Two of the resort casino operator’s executives spoke at a recent event where they talked about Las Vegas’s covid comeback.



Two of the resort casino operator's executives spoke at a recent event where they talked about Las Vegas's covid comeback.

The Las Vegas Strip suffered during the covid pandemic when lights on the iconic 4.2-mile stretch of road literally went dark due to a government-mandated closure. Recovery, however, has been not exactly a straight line because the lingering impact of the pandemic has been a drag on some key business areas.

The two biggest players on the Strip -- Caesars Entertainment (CZR) - Get Free Report and MGM Resorts International (MGM) - Get Free Report -- have both had to make decisions without being able to use the past as a guide. In most years, for example, you could make a reasonable guess as to how many people might visit the city during a major convention based on how many attendees that show had the past year.

DON'T MISS: Las Vegas Strip Faces a New Post-Pandemic Reality

Covid, however, changed that equation. Some companies have realized that maybe they don't need to spend the money on exhibiting or attending shows while others may have employees reticent to be in crowded spaces.

In addition, some major events -- like CES in 2022 -- saw attendance plummet at the last minute due to a spike in covid numbers. Add in that international travelers and some more-vulnerable populations have continued to be wary of travel and it makes planning a challenge for Caesars and MGM.

All of this has led to low prices for tourists and business travelers -- especially those who booked far in advance. That has been slowly changing, especially for major non-business tourist events like March Madness, the NFL Draft, and November's Formula 1 race (a weekend where Caesars, MGM, and the other Strip operators may break pricing records).

Rising prices and a rebounding convention business don't mean the end of Las Vegas as a value destination for tourists, according to MGM COO Corey Sanders, who spoke at the recent J.P. Morgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Management Access Forum in Las Vegas. 


MGM Expects a Convention Comeback (Just Not Yet)

Although Las Vegas has largely returned to normal after its covid disruptions, room rates at many Caesars and MGM properties remain below historic norms. That's at least partially because the convention business remained soft in 2022 and not having those huge blocks of rooms booked led to the casino operators generally keeping prices low.

That's expected to continue through 2023, according to Sanders, reported.

"With regards to convention, in particular with MGM, we’re going to be down a little bit this year. Some of it is strategic. We have made a decision that on weekends, we’ll put less convention business in our buildings,” he shared.

Fewer rooms booked for conventions generally means lower rates across the Strip.

Sanders said he expected 2023 to be a "decent" year for MGM's Strip convention business, but he believes that 2024 and 2025 will be stronger.

MGM Sees the Value of an Affordable Las Vegas

A convention business bounceback, however, does not mean an end to affordable Las Vegas Strip hotel rooms, according to MGM Senior Vice President Sarah Rogers, who joined Sanders onstage. She made it clear that MGM understands that the Las Vegas Strip must maintain its status as an affordable vacation destination.

“We still offer a relative value. That gap has tightened a little bit,” said Rogers. “Some of those drivers that have allowed us to sustain that are things like continued programming, improved product, and the suite offering that we have. So we’re comfortable that we still offer relative value.”

Sanders also pointed out that "much of the increase in traffic at Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas is attributable to economy carriers, meaning the travel costs to get to the U.S. casino hub are, broadly speaking, tolerable for a broad swath of customers,"'s Todd Shriber wrote. 


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