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Morgan Stanley: Countries Will Transition Toward Acceptance Of COVID As An Endemic Problem They Must Live With

Morgan Stanley: Countries Will Transition Toward Acceptance Of COVID As An Endemic Problem They Must Live With

By Chetan Ahya, Chief Economist and Global Head of Economics at Morgan Stanley

Getting Back to Growth Outperformance

The tone…

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Morgan Stanley: Countries Will Transition Toward Acceptance Of COVID As An Endemic Problem They Must Live With

By Chetan Ahya, Chief Economist and Global Head of Economics at Morgan Stanley

Getting Back to Growth Outperformance

The tone in my recent meetings with investors in Asia has been all too familiar. Our constructive views – both cyclically and structurally – are greeted with cautiousness. Earlier in the summer, investors were sceptical about the region’s vaccination efforts. Now, continuing or even tighter restrictions in parts of the region have left them concerned that these measures may not be fully relaxed even as vaccinations reach high levels.

I do understand why investors are cautious – Asia’s growth outperformance in the initial stages of the pandemic has given way to underperformance. Asia was the earliest region to stage a V-shaped recovery. Led by China, GDP climbed back quickly to pre-Covid levels by 3Q20, driven by a sharp rebound in exports and private investment. Aggressive lockdowns kept outbreaks under control, and factories reopened just ahead of the global surge in demand. Asia’s export growth engine powered ahead, with real exports recovering faster than in previous cycles, reaching 5% above their pre-Covid path. As ever, the exports recovery had strong spillover effects into Asia’s capex cycle, and Asia’s investment has already moved to 2% above its pre-Covid trajectory.

However, growth momentum in Asia has slowed in the last two quarters. The emergence of variants, a delay in the start of Asia’s vaccination drive and continued stringent measures to contain Covid outbreaks in several large economies have led to tighter restrictions on mobility from time to time. Consumption has been constrained and is the only component of GDP which remains below its pre-pandemic path.

Recognizing the challenge, policy-makers have accelerated vaccination efforts. Over the last three months, vaccination rates have jumped from 21% to 63% of Asia’s adult population. At the current pace and with vaccine supply continuing to stream in, we expect that 10 out of 12 economies will have achieved 80%+ vaccination rates for the adult population by end-2021. Policy-makers in Asia have set a high bar for vaccination rates before reopening, and we believe that they will meet it.

At that point, we expect a number of countries to modify their Covid management strategies and begin transitioning towards the acceptance of Covid as an endemic problem that they must live with. Authorities in Singapore, Korea and Australia have laid out such roadmaps. The pressure to move away from strict containment measures stems from the fact that they have constrained activity in labor-intensive sectors, weighing on employment.

We therefore expect a broad-based recovery to take hold starting early next year, as policy-makers – comfortable with progress on vaccinations by 4Q21 – start moving towards a full reopening that reaccelerates consumption growth. Meanwhile, the strength we have seen in exports should continue, which bodes well for the region's capex cycle. Although consumption in the US will shift towards services, the strongest US capex cycle since the 1940s should help to support Asia’s exports. Moreover, the pick-up in euro area domestic demand with reopening should provide an added boost to Asia’s exports. With growth firing on all cylinders, GDP should exceed its pre-Covid path meaningfully towards year-end, and Asia would once again be a growth outperformer.

We also see good reasons to be bullish on Asia over the medium term. When exports growth languished between 2010 and 2016, policy-makers had to rely on leverage to drive growth, giving rise to macro-stability concerns. This time, we believe that Asia’s growth engine will be propelled by the right kind of fuel. The virtuous feedback loop of strong external demand and positive spillover effects to capex can engender a self-sustaining cycle. In some ways, Asia’s growth story in this cycle will resemble 2003-07, with productivity playing a larger role while leverage takes a back seat.

In truth, this dynamic was already emerging towards the end of 2016, as Asia had effectively adjusted after the misallocation following the global financial crisis. Strong growth during 2017 and into 1H18 was interrupted by the onset of trade tensions from 2H18, followed by the pandemic. We think that once the Covid cloud lifts, the structural story where productivity takes the lead will be evident.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/12/2021 - 15:30

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VIRI: Enrollment Complete in FORTRESS Trial; Results Expected in September 2022…

By David Bautz, PhD
NASDAQ:VIRI
READ THE FULL VIRI RESEARCH REPORT
Business Update
FORTRESS Trial Fully Enrolled; Topline Results in September 2022
On…

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By David Bautz, PhD

NASDAQ:VIRI

READ THE FULL VIRI RESEARCH REPORT

Business Update

FORTRESS Trial Fully Enrolled; Topline Results in September 2022

On April 28, 2022, Virios Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: VIRI) announced that it has completed enrollment of 425 fibromyalgia patients into the Phase 2b FORTRESS (Fibromyalgia Outcome Research Trial Evaluating Synergistic Suppression of Herpes Simplex Virus-1) trial, a randomized, double blind, placebo controlled study of IMC-1. The primary endpoint of the trial is reduction in pain and secondary endpoints include change in fatigue, sleep disturbance, global health status, and patient functionality (NCT04748705). An outline of the trial is shown below.

In parallel with the FORTRESS trial, Virios is continuing the chronic toxicology studies of IMC-1 in two animal species. The results of these studies are required by regulators before Virios will be allowed to dose patients for one year or more, which is the plan for the Phase 3 program. The results of the chronic toxicology studies should be known around the time of the completion of the FORTRESS trial, thus the company should be able to move into a final Phase 3 program following completion of the current study, pending positive results.

Testing Combination Antiviral Therapy for the Treatment of Long COVID

In February 2022, Virios announced a collaboration with the Bateman Horne Center (BHC) to test combination antiviral therapy for the treatment of Long COVID. Following an infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, approximately 30% of patients will experience symptoms that last for weeks or months, which is referred to as Long COVID. The range of symptoms varies from patient to patient, however the most commonly reported (from a recent meta analysis) were fatigue (58%), headache (44%), attention disorder (27%), hair loss (25%), and dyspnea (24%) (Lopez-Leon et al., 2021).

The main theories for what might be causing ...

Full story available on Benzinga.com

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Type-I interferon stops immune system ‘going rogue’ during viral infections

Hamilton, ON (May 17, 2022) – McMaster University researchers have found not only how some viral infections cause severe tissue damage, but also how…

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Hamilton, ON (May 17, 2022) – McMaster University researchers have found not only how some viral infections cause severe tissue damage, but also how to reduce that damage.

Credit: Georgia Kirkos/McMaster University

Hamilton, ON (May 17, 2022) – McMaster University researchers have found not only how some viral infections cause severe tissue damage, but also how to reduce that damage.

 

They have discovered how Type I interferon (IFN) stops the immune system ‘going rogue’ and attacking the body’s own tissues when fighting viral infections, including COVID-19.

 

Their paper was published in the journal PLOS Pathogens today.

  

Senior author Ali Ashkar said IFN is a well-known anti-viral signalling molecule released by the body’s cells that can trigger a powerful immune response against harmful viruses.

 

“What we have found is that it is also critical to stop white blood cells from releasing protease enzymes, which can damage organ tissue. It has this unique dual function to kick start an immune response against a viral infection on the one hand, as well as restrain that same response to prevent significant bystander tissue damage on the other,” he said.

 

The research team investigated IFN’s ability to regulate a potentially dangerous immune response by testing it on both flu and the HSV-2 virus, a highly prevalent sexually transmitted pathogen, using mice. Data from COVID-19 patients in Germany, including post-mortem lung samples, was also used in the study.

 

“For many viral infections, it is not actually the virus that causes most of the tissue damage, it is our heightened immune activation towards the virus,” said Ashkar, a professor of medicine at McMaster.

  

First co-author of the study and PhD student Emily Feng said: “Our body’s immune response is trying to fight off the virus infection, but there’s a risk of damaging innocent healthy tissue in the process. IFNs regulates the immune response to only target tissues that are infected.

 

“By discovering the mechanisms the immune system uses that can inadvertently cause tissue damage, we can intervene during infection to prevent this damage and not necessarily have to wait until vaccines are developed to develop life-saving treatments,” she added.

 

“This applies not just to COVID-19, but also other highly infectious viruses such as flu and Ebola, which can cause tremendous and often life-threatening damage to the body’s organs,” said first study co-author Amanda Lee, a family medicine resident. 

 

Ashkar said the release of harmful proteases is the result of a ‘cytokine storm’, which is life-threatening inflammation sometimes triggered by viral infections. It has been a common cause of death in patients with COVID-19, but treatment has been developed to prevent and suppress the cytokine storm.

 

Ashkar said that steroids like dexamethasone are already used to rein in an extreme immune response to viral infections. The authors used doxycycline in their study, an antibiotic used for bacterial infections and as an anti-inflammatory agent, inhibits the function of proteases causing the bystander tissue damage.

 

Lee added: “This has the potential in the future to be used to alleviate virus-induced life-threatening inflammation and warrants further research.” 

 

The study was funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

 

-30-

 

Editors:

Pictures of Ali Ashkar and Emily Feng may be found at https://bit.ly/3wmSw0D

  

 

 


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mRNA vaccines like Pfizer and Moderna fare better against COVID-19 variants of concern

A comparison of four COVID-19 vaccinations shows that messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines — Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna — perform better against the World…

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A comparison of four COVID-19 vaccinations shows that messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines — Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna — perform better against the World Health Organization’s variants of concern (VOCs) than viral vector vaccines — AstraZeneca and J&J/Janssen. Although they all effectively prevent severe disease by VOCs, the research, publishing May 17th in the open access journal PLOS Medicine, suggests that people receiving a viral vector vaccine are more vulnerable to infection by new variants.

Credit: Carlos Reusser Monsalvez, Flickr (CC0, https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/)

A comparison of four COVID-19 vaccinations shows that messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines — Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna — perform better against the World Health Organization’s variants of concern (VOCs) than viral vector vaccines — AstraZeneca and J&J/Janssen. Although they all effectively prevent severe disease by VOCs, the research, publishing May 17th in the open access journal PLOS Medicine, suggests that people receiving a viral vector vaccine are more vulnerable to infection by new variants.

By March 2022, COVID-19 had caused over 450 million confirmed infections and six million reported deaths. The first vaccines approved in the US and Europe that protect against serious infection are Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, which deliver genetic code, known as mRNA, to the bodies’ cells, whereas Oxford/AstraZeneca and J&J/Janssen are viral vector vaccines that use a modified version of a different virus — a vector — to deliver instructions to our cells. Three vaccines are delivered as two separate injections a few weeks apart, and J&J/Janssen as a single dose.

Marit J. van Gils at the University of Amsterdam, Netherlands, and colleagues, took blood samples from 165 healthcare workers, three and four weeks after first and second vaccination respectively, and for J&J/Janssen at four to five and eight weeks after vaccination. Samples were collected before, and four weeks after a Pfizer-BioNTech booster.

Four weeks after the initial two doses, antibody responses to the original SARS-CoV-2 viral strain were highest in recipients of Moderna, followed closely by Pfizer-BioNTech, and were substantially lower in those who received viral vector vaccines. Tested against the VOCs – Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron – neutralizing antibodies were higher in the mRNA vaccine recipients compared to those who had viral vector vaccines. The ability to neutralize VOCs was reduced in all vaccine groups, with the greatest reduction against Omicron. The Pfizer-BioNTech booster increased antibody responses in all groups with substantial improvement against VOCs, including Omicron.

The researchers caution that their AstraZeneca group was significantly older, because of safety concerns for the vaccine in younger age groups. As immune responses tend to weaken with age, this could affect the results. This group was also smaller because the Dutch government halted use for a period.

van Gils concludes, “Four COVID-19 vaccines induce substantially different antibody responses.”

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In your coverage, please use this URL to provide access to the freely available paper in PLOS Medicine:

http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003991

Citation: van Gils MJ, Lavell A, van der Straten K, Appelman B, Bontjer I, Poniman M, et al. (2022) Antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2 variants induced by four different SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in health care workers in the Netherlands: A prospective cohort study. PLoS Med 19(5): e1003991. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003991

 

Author Countries: The Netherlands, United States

 

Funding: This work was supported by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) ZonMw (Vici grant no. 91818627 to R.W.S., S3 study, grant agreement no. 10430022010023 to M.K.B.; RECoVERED, grant agreement no. 10150062010002 to M.D.d.J.), by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant no. INV002022 and INV008818 to R.W.S. and INV-024617 to M.J.v.G.), by Amsterdam UMC through the AMC Fellowship (to M.J.v.G.) and the Corona Research Fund (to M.K.B.), and by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 program (RECoVER, grant no. 101003589 to M.D.d.J). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.


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