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Mish’s Daily: Can the Fed Control Inflation with Higher Rates?

So, the whole U.S. watched the Fed raise rates by .75 bps today. And, with all the news coverage and analysis, yours truly has tried to warn you all that,…

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So, the whole U.S. watched the Fed raise rates by .75 bps today. And, with all the news coverage and analysis, yours truly has tried to warn you all that, whether the Fed raised by 50 or 75 bps, it does not matter.

Equities underperformed commodities from 1999 to 2009. This was followed by an 11.8-year streak of outperformance by stocks due to QE and low rates. Now, for the last 2.2 years, commodities are outperforming. Will this last for ten years?

The S&P 500 is now in a bear market for the first time since the pandemic-induced drop in 2020. The Fed raised for a third straight time. Regardless, two increases in the previous two Fed sessions had little influence on rising energy and food costs, and today's hike will almost certainly have little effect other than potentially in the housing market.

What do we have? The knee jerk reaction of the stock market was to rally. And so did gold, silver, copper and pretty much everything except for oil and energy. Government officials, except for maybe Janet Yellen, may not want to admit it, but global macro data all points to global Stagflation.

Several days ago, the World Bank slashed global growth forecasts and warned of 1970s-style stagflation. If oil supply and demand fall for now, that complacency it will foster among investors that inflation has peaked, and the Fed is doing its job, could be dangerous.

We expect food commodities (and energy) to continue to lead inflation higher. We believe that today's rally in equities might be met with further selling very soon once the market realizes that the Fed cannot go far enough. They raise more, the threat of recession (although it is really stagflation) ensues. They do not raise enough, and inflation goes on for perhaps the next 3-8 years.

Regardless, watch our dear Granny Retail, XRT, which is the immediate indicator on where consumers go from here.


Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish made a guest appearance on Fox Business with Neil Cavuto!

Read Mish's new article on inflation for CMC Markets here!

Mish was a guest on the Tuesday, June 14th edition of StockCharts TV's The Final Bar with David Keller, where she talks looking for a bounce from the Retail ETF (XRT) and downside targets for Bitcoin.

Mish appeared on "Chart School" with Charles Payne on Fox Business:

Watch Mish cover her Economic Family on the Money Show!

Mish sit downs with Jared Blikre to discuss her history, investing and the future in this video from Yahoo Finance!


ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (SPY): 380 resistance, 374 pivotal support, 360 major support.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): 168.90 May low, 175-177 big resistance.
  • Dow (DIA): 306.28 pivotal support, then 294.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 290 resistance, 275 big support must hold.
  • KRE (Regional Banks): 56 the 200-WMA, 60 resistance.
  • SMH (Semiconductors): 195 some minor support with 220 resistance.
  • IYT (Transportation): 211.87 the 200-WMA, resistance 218.
  • IBB (Biotechnology): 105.39 support, 110 resistance.
  • XRT (Retail): 60.62 the important 200-WMA support line, 65 point to clear.


Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

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Spread & Containment

FTSE 100 gains as commodity-linked stocks bounce back

The commodity-heavy FTSE 100 gained 0.4%, while mid-cap FTSE 250 index inched up 0.3% UK’s FTSE 100 gained on Monday, as an easing of COVID-19 restrictions…

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The commodity-heavy FTSE 100 gained 0.4%, while mid-cap FTSE 250 index inched up 0.3%

UK’s FTSE 100 gained on Monday, as an easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China brought relief to commodity prices, lifting shares of major oil and mining companies.

As of 0704 GMT, the commodity-heavy FTSE 100 gained 0.4%, while mid-cap FTSE 250 index inched up 0.3%.

The risk sentiment improved after a Wall Street rally late last week and a rebound in copper and iron ore prices on Monday, boosted by an easing COVID-19 restrictions in Shanghai and relaxed testing mandates in several Chinese cities.

The burst of global enthusiasm for equities has put a spring in the step of the FTSE 100 at the start of the week, Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Susannah Streeter said.

Mining stocks led gains on the FTSE 100 index, with Anglo American, Rio Tinto and Glencore rising more than 3%, after Group of Seven leaders pledged to raise $600 billion private and public funds in five years to finance needed infrastructure in developing countries.

It is hoped this scheme, seen as a counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, will set off a spurt of spending and demand for commodities around the world, Streeter added.

Among individual stocks, CareTech surged 20.8% after the UK-based provider of care and residential services agreed to be acquired by a consortium led by Sheikh Hoidings in an 870.3 million pounds ($1.07 billion) deal.

Carnival Corp jumped 5.6%, extending its Friday gains after the leisure travel company forecast a positive core profit for the current quarter despite surging costs.

London-listed shares of Rio Tinto added 2% after a U.S appeals court ruled that the federal government may give the UK copper miner a right to lands in Arizona.

BAE Systems inched up 0.4% after the defence company received a $12 billion contract from the U.S Department of Defence.

The post FTSE 100 gains as commodity-linked stocks bounce back first appeared on Trading and Investment News.

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Science

Hot Penny Stocks to Buy This Week? 3 For Your List 

Can these penny stocks continue to climb
The post Hot Penny Stocks to Buy This Week? 3 For Your List  appeared first on Penny Stocks to Buy, Picks, News…

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3 Hot Penny Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist This Week 

Let’s face it, finding penny stocks to buy is not easy. And over the past few months, it has been increasingly challenging to make money with small caps. Now, while this may be true, not every investor has lost money in that time. Rather, to make money with penny stocks, traders have to be extra careful and know what penny stocks to buy. 

[Read More] Best Penny Stocks to Buy as June Ends? 3 to Watch 

There are a few key things to look for when finding penny stocks to buy. The first is a reason that it may move. When penny stocks shift up or down, there are numerous causes. But, most penny stocks will have a fundamental reason to do so. This could be a new product launch, an FDA approval, or anything else that would increase demand for the company’s shares. 

The second is liquidity. This is key because you need to be able to buy and sell penny stocks quickly. If there is not enough liquidity or shares traded in a day, you may be stuck with your penny stock. 

The last is price. You obviously want to buy penny stocks that are cheap, but you also want to make sure that the company is valued appropriately. This means looking at its fundamentals and understanding why it is at its given value. With all of this in mind, let’s take a look at three penny stocks to add to your watchlist this week.

3 Penny Stocks to Watch This Week 

  1. Visionary Education Technology Holding Group Inc. (NASDAQ: VEDU)
  2. RLX Technology Inc. (NYSE: RLX)
  3. Uranium Energy Corp. (NYSE: UEC

Visionary Education Technology Holding Group Inc. (NASDAQ: VEDU) 

One of the largest gainers of the day on June 27th was VEDU stock. By EOD, shares of VEDU had shot up by more than 30% with an over 5% after-hours gain. And, in the past five days, shares of VEDU stock have exploded by over 120%. These major gains come alongside no recent news. The most recent news however, came on May 19th. 

[Read More] Penny Stocks: Looking At The Big Picture For Tiny Stocks

On the 19th, the company announced the closing of its $17 million firm commitment IPO. This came with 4.25 million shares at a public offering price of $4 per share. For some context, Visionary Education is a Canadian based company offering high-quality education resources to students around the world. While it has fallen from its IPO price to around $2.60, its recent bullish momentum is exciting without a doubt. So, with all of this in mind, will VEDU be on your penny stocks watchlist or not?

RLX Technology Inc. (NYSE: RLX) 

With over 3% in gains during trading and after hours on June 27th, RLX is another penny stock that investors are watching right now. In the past month, we’ve seen shares of RLX climb by more than 19%, which is no small feat. The most recent news from the company came in the form of its unaudited Q1 2022 financial results. In the results, the company saw its net revenue decline slightly, however, it stated that this was due to the pandemic. 

“During the first quarter of 2022, we continued to focus on our core strategy and maintain our leading position in the industry while preparing for the anticipated regulatory changes.

As the new regulatory framework has come into effect and detailed implementation measures have been released, we are proactively adapting our business to the new market environment by applying for the relevant licenses and developing qualified products that meet the requirements of the most recent national standards.”

The CEO of RLX Technology, Ms. Ying Wang

While this news was not ideal, it did bring shares of RLX stock down to lower levels. And as a result, its recent bullish momentum could be due to RLX being at value prices. Whether this makes RLX worth adding to your list of penny stocks to buy, is up to you. 

Penny_Stocks_to_Watch_RLX

Uranium Energy Corp. (NYSE: UEC) 

On June 27th, UEC stock saw modest gains however, it did post abnormally high volume. And because of this, many investors are keeping a close eye on it right now. The most recent update from the company came on June 22nd, when it announced its entrance into a definitive agreement with UEX Corporation. It stated that it would acquire all of the outstanding shares of UEX with a C$5 million private placement. 

This is big news for the company and should add to its large and growing business. If you’re not familiar, Uranium Energy is a uranium mining company. And, recently, we’ve seen heightened interest in alternative energy penny stocks. And although UEC is highly volatile, it is an interesting penny stock to watch. With this considered, does UEC deserve an addition to your watchlist or not?

Penny_Stocks_to_Watch_Uranium

Which Penny Stocks Are You Buying Right Now?

After a relatively flat day of trading, investors are looking for the best penny stocks to buy this week. That involves understanding what factors are impacting the stock market, and how we can use those to benefit.

[Read More] Penny Stocks To Watch: Why EVFM, AGRX, CYBN, HILS & AFIB Stock Are Moving

Although trading is not easy, there are plenty of ways to find penny stocks to buy in 2022. So, with this in mind, which penny stocks are you buying right now?

[reblex id='29520']

The post Hot Penny Stocks to Buy This Week? 3 For Your List  appeared first on Penny Stocks to Buy, Picks, News and Information | PennyStocks.com.

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Economics

When bad news is good news

After the very sharp sell-off in the share market, the recent rally is indicative of a mood where bad news is good news. Specifically, the recognised slowdown…

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After the very sharp sell-off in the share market, the recent rally is indicative of a mood where bad news is good news. Specifically, the recognised slowdown in the English-speaking economies likely means the various Central Banks will not be required to increase official cash rates by the amount that most forecasters had assumed.

To reiterate, due to the tax via the increased prices for food, fuel, electricity and gas, combined with downward pressure on house prices from rising interest rates, plus the indebtedness of the Western world consumer, I am not nearly as pessimistic as most market commentators on the belated Central Bank tightening regime.  

Australia’s household debt to GDP ratio

And to summarise where we see the current environment:

  • While they maintain a 2-3 per cent inflation target – most Central Banks are late in their tightening cycle. They cannot risk cooling down economic activity too much within their levered systems without causing too much consequential pain.
  • The US S&P 500 Index has declined 23 per cent and this is discounting some fears of recession. Nevertheless, bottom-up analysts have yet to meaningfully move on the potential earnings downgrade cycle, given the severity of the slowdown, for Fiscal 2023.
  • 81 per cent of stocks listed on the NYSE are down more than 20 per cent from their 52-week highs, meaning we have experienced a broad-based sell-off. Many highly priced quality companies and smaller companies generally have been hit much harder.
  • The US Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates by 0.5 per cent at their next meeting in late-July 2022 to 2.0 per cent, and I expect another 0.25 per cent tightening thereafter.
  • Markets rely on liquidity and a change in the rhetoric on monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve is probably needed before we can be confident ‘the bottom’ is near.
  • Some commentors are looking for upcoming weakness in the hiring plans by small businesses – and that is expected to lead the unemployment rate by four months.
  • Keep a close eye on “Doctor Copper” – a key indicator of global industrial activity. After rallying from US$2.10/lb during the COVID-19 lows of March 2020 to US$5.00/lb in March 2022, the Copper price has since declined by 25 per cent to US$3.74/lb.
  • As with the Global Financial Crisis, stimulus from China will help offset some of the slowing we expect in Europe and the US and could assist with a pull-up effect for Australia.

You can read my previous article here: The size of the hangover usually corresponds with the size of the party

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