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Meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions market 2022-2026; A descriptive analysis of the five forces model, market dynamics, and segmentation – Technavio

Meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions market 2022-2026; A descriptive analysis of the five forces model, market dynamics, and segmentation – Technavio
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NEW YORK, Jan. 23, 2023

NEW YORK, Jan. 23, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — According to T…

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Meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions market 2022-2026; A descriptive analysis of the five forces model, market dynamics, and segmentation - Technavio

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NEW YORK, Jan. 23, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- According to Technavio, the global meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions market size is estimated to grow by USD 16.69 billion from 2021 to 2026. The market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 4% during the forecast period. Europe held the largest share of the global market in 2022, and the market in the region is estimated to witness an incremental growth of 39%. Get detailed insights into the market study. The competitive scenario categorizes companies based on various performance indicators. Some of the factors considered include the financial performance of companies, growth strategies, product innovations, new product launches, investments, and growth in market share, among others. Buy the report!

Meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions market - Five Forces
The global cloud data warehouse market is fragmented, and the five forces analysis covers– 

  • Bargaining Power of Buyers 
  • The threat of New Entrants
  • Threat of Rivalry
  • Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • Threat of Substitutes
  • For more Insights on market size, Request a sample report

Meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions market – Customer Landscape 

The report includes the market's adoption lifecycle, from the innovator's stage to the laggard's stage. It focuses on adoption rates in different regions based on penetration. Furthermore, the report also includes key purchase criteria and drivers of price sensitivity to help companies evaluate and develop their growth strategies.

Meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions market - Segmentation Assessment

Segment Overview
Technavio has segmented the market based on application (meal vouchers and employee benefits) and geography (Europe, South America, APAC, North America, and Middle East and Africa). 

  • The market growth in the meal vouchers segment will be significant during the forecast period. Meal vouchers allow employees to save on tax, as many countries globally have specified tax exemptions on meal vouchers. For instance, meal vouchers worth USD 0.6 (INR 50) or less than that were exempted from tax in India. In addition, vendors are expanding their service offerings by launching new meal vouchers and forming strategic alliances. These developments are fueling the growth of the segment.

Geography Overview
By geography, the global meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions market is segmented into Europe, South America, APAC, North America, and Middle East and Africa. The report provides actionable insights and estimates the contribution of all regions to the growth of the global meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions market.

  • Europe will account for 39% of the market growth during the forecast period. The growth of the regional market is driven by evolving buying patterns of consumers, such as the increasing preference for making online payments and digital payment methods. In addition, some of the vendors operating in the region are raising funds. Some vendors are expanding their presence by acquiring small players to gain access to their distribution networks.

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Meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions market – Market Dynamics

Key factor driving market growth

  • The market growth is driven by the tax benefits of meal vouchers.
  • Many organizations and employers include meal vouchers as part of their employees' salary structure to be exempt from tax.
  • For instance, according to the Income Tax Department, Government of India, there are tax benefits for free food and beverages provided to employees.
  • Similarly, in Brazil, according to the Workers' Food Program, companies and employers are asked to pay for employees' food provisions in exchange for tax relief.
  • The benefits and tax exemption associated with the use of meal vouchers is increasing their demand among enterprises and employers, which is driving the market growth.

Leading trends influencing the market 

  • The shift toward digital meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions is identified as the key trend in the market.
  • The increasing penetration of the internet and smartphones in emerging economies has led to a shift in the inclination toward digital wallets and payment methods.
  • With a large number of retailers accepting digital payments, market players are automating and digitizing their processes as well as providing personalized services.
  • Digitization is providing new opportunities for vendors to increase returns by innovating their products and services in tandem with technological advancements.
  • In addition, the push toward the adoption of digital payment by governments across the world is encouraging vendors to introduce electronic or digital meal vouchers.

Major challenges hindering market growth

  • Data privacy and security issues are some of the challenges hindering market growth.
  • Mobile apps and cards offered by vendors collect and store the personal information of customers.
  • Although vendors are adopting security technologies to safeguard this critical data, any vulnerabilities in the servers or mobile apps could pose a threat to privacy and may impact the business of vendors.
  • As personal consumer information is stored and synced between all the apps, any hacker or phishing attack can steal critical data and information if not protected properly.

Driver, trend, and challenges are the factors of market dynamics that state about consequences & sustainability of the businesses, find some insights from a sample report!

What are the key data covered in this meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions market report?

  • CAGR of the market during the forecast period
  • Detailed information on factors that will drive the growth of the meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions market between 2022 and 2026
  • Precise estimation of the size of the meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions market size and its contribution to the market in focus on the parent market
  • Accurate predictions about upcoming trends and changes in consumer behavior
  • Growth of the meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions market industry across Europe, South America, APAC, North America, and Middle East and Africa
  • A thorough analysis of the market's competitive landscape and detailed information about vendors
  • Comprehensive analysis of factors that will challenge the growth of meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions market vendors

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Meal Vouchers and Employee Benefit Solutions Market Scope

Report Coverage

Details

Page number

120

Base year

2021

Historic period

2017-2021

Forecast period

2022-2026

Growth momentum & CAGR

Accelerate at a CAGR of 4%

Market growth 2022-2026

USD 16.69 billion

Market structure

Fragmented

YoY growth 2022-2023 (%)

3.16

Regional analysis

Europe, South America, APAC, North America, and Middle East and Africa

Performing market contribution

Europe at 39%

Key countries

Japan, France, Italy, Spain, and Brazil

Competitive landscape

Leading Vendors, Market Positioning of Vendors, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks

Key companies profiled

Alelo, Axis Bank Ltd., Cinqo Group, Edenred SA, PayPal Holdings Inc., Electrum Fintech Solutions Pvt. Ltd., Emburse Inc., Hrmony GmbH, ICICI Bank Ltd., Monizze NV SA, One Obopay Mobile Technology India Pvt. Ltd., Set Corporate Services Inc., Sodexo Group, SPENDIT AG, SWILE SAS, UniCredit SpA, Up Group, VA Tech Ventures Pvt Ltd., VR Beneficios, and Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services Pvt. Ltd.

Market dynamics

Parent market analysis, market growth inducers and obstacles, fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, and market condition analysis for the forecast period.

Customization purview

If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized.

Table of contents:

1. Executive Summary 

2. Market Landscape 

  2.1 Market ecosystem 

  Exhibit 01: Parent market

  2.2: Market Characteristics 

3. Market Sizing 

  3.1 Market definition

  Exhibit 02: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition

  3.2 Market segment analysis 

  Exhibit 03: Market segments

  3.3 Market size 2020 

  3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2020 - 2025 

  Exhibit 04: Chart on Global - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 05: Data Table on Global - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 06: Chart on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  Exhibit 07: Data Table on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

4. Five Forces Analysis 

  4.1 Five Forces Summary 

  Exhibit 08: Five forces analysis 2020 & 2025

  4.2 Bargaining power of buyers 

  4.3 Bargaining power of suppliers 

  4.4 Threat of new entrants 

  4.5 Threat of substitutes 

  4.6 Threat of rivalry 

  4.7 Market condition

  Exhibit 09: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2021 and 2026

5 Market Segmentation by Application 

  5.1 Market segments

  The segments covered in this chapter are Meal vouchers and Employee benefits.

  Exhibit 10: Chart on Application - Market share 2021-2026 (%)

  Exhibit 11: Data Table on Application - Market share 2021-2026 (%)

  5.2 Comparison by Application 

  Exhibit 12: Chart on Comparison by Application

  Exhibit 13: Data Table on Comparison by Application

  5.3 Meal vouchers - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 

  Exhibit 14: Chart on Meal vouchers - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 15: Data Table on Meal vouchers - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 16: Chart on Meal vouchers - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  Exhibit 17: Data Table on Meal vouchers - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  5.4 Employee benefits - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 

  Exhibit 18: Chart on Employee benefits - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 19: Data Table on Employee benefits - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 20: Chart on Employee benefits - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  Exhibit 21: Data Table on Employee benefits - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  5.5 Market opportunity by Application 

  Exhibit 22: Market opportunity by Application ($ million)

6 Customer Landscape 

  6.1 Customer landscape overview 

  Exhibit 23: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria

7 Geographic Landscape 

  7.1 Geographic segmentation

  Exhibit 24: Chart on Market share by geography 2021-2026 (%)

  Exhibit 25: Data Table on Market share by geography 2021-2026 (%)

  7.2 Geographic comparison 

  Exhibit 26: Chart on Geographic comparison

  7.3 Europe - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 

  Exhibit 27: Chart on Europe - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 28: Data Table on Europe - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 29: Chart on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  Exhibit 30: Data Table on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  7.4 South America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 

  Exhibit 31: Chart on South America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 32: Data Table on South America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 33: Chart on South America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  Exhibit 34: Data Table on South America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  7.5 APAC - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 

  Exhibit 35: Chart on APAC - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 36: Data Table on APAC - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 37: Chart on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  Exhibit 38: Data Table on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  7.6 North America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 

  Exhibit 39: Chart on North America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 40: Data Table on North America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 41: Chart on North America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  Exhibit 42: Data Table on North America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  7.7 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 

  Exhibit 43: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 44: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 45: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  Exhibit 46: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  7.8 Brazil - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 

  Exhibit 47: Chart on Brazil - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 48: Data Table on Brazil - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 49: Chart on Brazil - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  Exhibit 50: Data Table on Brazil - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  7.9 France - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 

  Exhibit 51: Chart on France - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 52: Data Table on France - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 53: Chart on France - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  Exhibit 54: Data Table on France - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  7.10 Italy - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 

  Exhibit 55: Chart on Italy - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 56: Data Table on Italy - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 57: Chart on Italy - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  Exhibit 58: Data Table on Italy - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  7.11 Japan - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 

  Exhibit 59: Chart on Japan - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 60: Data Table on Japan - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 61: Chart on Japan - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  Exhibit 62: Data Table on Japan - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  7.12 Spain - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 

  Exhibit 63: Chart on Spain - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 64: Data Table on Spain - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)

  Exhibit 65: Chart on Spain - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  Exhibit 66: Data Table on Spain - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

  7.13 Market opportunity by geography 

  Exhibit 67: Market opportunity by geography ($ million)

8 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends 

  8.1 Market drivers 

  8.1.1 Tax benefits of meal vouchers

  8.1.2 Growing employment rates

  8.1.3 Active participation of banks

  8.2 Market challenges 

  8.2.1 Data privacy and security issues

  8.2.2 Alternative ways to save on tax

  8.2.3 Advocacy against meal voucher companies

  8.3 Impact of drivers and challenges 

  Exhibit 68: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2021 and 2026

  8.4 Market trends 

  8.4.1 Shift toward digital meal vouchers and employee benefit solutions

  8.4.2 Rise in venture capital investment in employee benefit solution

  8.4.3 Strategic partnerships with meal kit delivery vendors

9. Vendor Landscape 

  9.1  Competitive scenario 

  9.2  Vendor landscape 

  Exhibit 69: Vendor Landscape

  9.3  Landscape disruption 

  Exhibit 70: Landscape disruption

  9.4  Industry risks 

  Exhibit 71: Industry risks

10.  Vendor Analysis 

  10.1  Vendors covered 

  Exhibit 72: Vendors covered

  10.2 Market positioning of vendors 

  Exhibit 73: Matrix on vendor position and classification

  10.3 Alelo 

  Exhibit 74: Alelo - Overview

  Exhibit 75: Alelo - Product / Service

  Exhibit 76: Alelo - Key offerings

  10.4 Axis Bank Ltd. 

  Exhibit 77: Axis Bank Ltd. - Overview

  Exhibit 78: Axis Bank Ltd. - Business segments

  Exhibit 79: Axis Bank Ltd. - Key offerings

  Exhibit 80: Axis Bank Ltd. - Segment focus

  10.5 Cinqo Group 

  Exhibit 81: Cinqo Group - Overview

  Exhibit 82: Cinqo Group - Product / Service

  Exhibit 83: Cinqo Group - Key offerings

  10.6 Edenred SA 

  Exhibit 84: Edenred SA - Overview

  Exhibit 85: Edenred SA - Business segments

  Exhibit 86: Edenred SA - Key offerings

  Exhibit 87: Edenred SA - Segment focus

  10.7 Emburse Inc. 

  Exhibit 88: Emburse Inc. - Overview

  Exhibit 89: Emburse Inc. - Product / Service

  Exhibit 90: Emburse Inc. - Key offerings

  10.8 Monizze NV SA 

  Exhibit 91: Monizze NV SA - Overview

  Exhibit 92: Monizze NV SA - Product / Service

  Exhibit 93: Monizze NV SA - Key offerings

  10.9 Sodexo Group 

  Exhibit 94: Sodexo Group - Overview

  Exhibit 95: Sodexo Group - Business segments

  Exhibit 96: Sodexo Group - Key offerings

  Exhibit 97: Sodexo Group - Segment focus

  10.10 SPENDIT AG 

  Exhibit 98: SPENDIT AG - Overview

  Exhibit 99: SPENDIT AG - Product / Service

  Exhibit 100: SPENDIT AG - Key offerings

  10.11 Up Group 

  Exhibit 101: Up Group - Overview

  Exhibit 102: Up Group - Product / Service

  Exhibit 103: Up Group - Key offerings

  10.12 VR Beneficios 

  Exhibit 104: VR Beneficios - Overview

  Exhibit 105: VR Beneficios - Product / Service

  Exhibit 106: VR Beneficios - Key offerings

11. Appendix 

  11.1 Scope of the report 

  11.1.1 Market definition

  11.1.2 Objectives

  11.1.3 Notes and caveats

  11.2 Currency conversion rates for US$ 

  Exhibit 107: Currency conversion rates for US$

  11.3 Research Methodology 

  Exhibit 108: Research Methodology

  Exhibit 109: Validation techniques employed for market sizing

  Exhibit 110: Information sources

About Us

Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focuses on emerging market trends and provides actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions. With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio's report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning across 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio's comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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